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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 28, 2021 11:35:55 GMT
Who the heck is winning this? Seemed like such an easy one for Glenn Close...before the movie came out. Seyfried by default.
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Post by stephen on Jan 28, 2021 13:05:40 GMT
Who the heck is winning this? Seemed like such an easy one for Glenn Close...before the movie came out. If Minari can hold the line for the industry prizes, I think Youn would become the frontrunner. Her performance is the sort of scene-stealing, loud turn they like (and if they want to reward a tough-as-nails grandma in a coming-of-age movie in rural America, she's so much better than the alternative) -- the only thing holding her back is that she's pretty much an unknown to voters and her film could go either way right now. Bakalova is still too "out there" for the Academy, but Seyfried's losing a lot of ground and we only really have her penciled in as a de facto frontrunner because the two people getting most of the critical attention are in unorthodox films. And then there's always Colman, if SPC would get off their asses already. Now, if Bakalova suddenly can coup the Comedy/Musical Globe, then I might be swayed.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 28, 2021 13:33:02 GMT
I don't buy Seyfried for a second, at the moment. She hasn't gained any ground with critics, the movie isn't doing well and she isn't the kind of actress that would get a default Oscar from lack of competition at her first nod. Even Emma Stone had a nomination, and a more prestige career, before winning her first.
Bakalova would be a super inspired pick, but I find her unlikely too.
If I had to place a bet right now, it would be Youn and Burstyn, if Vanessa Kirby lands a Best Actress nomination.
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Post by stephen on Jan 28, 2021 13:43:12 GMT
I don't buy Seyfried for a second, at the moment. She hasn't gained any ground with critics, the movie isn't doing well and she isn't the kind of actress that would get a default Oscar from lack of competition at her first nod. Even Emma Stone had a nomination, and a more prestige career, before winning her first. Bakalova would be a super inspired pick, but I find her unlikely too. If I had to place a bet right now, it would be Youn and Burstyn, if Vanessa Kirby lands a Best Actress nomination. Burstyn's got a great scene that would play like gangbusters to voters, but I don't see her getting in without Kirby, and I think Kirby's right now fighting for that fifth spot.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 28, 2021 13:55:47 GMT
I don't buy Seyfried for a second, at the moment. She hasn't gained any ground with critics, the movie isn't doing well and she isn't the kind of actress that would get a default Oscar from lack of competition at her first nod. Even Emma Stone had a nomination, and a more prestige career, before winning her first. Bakalova would be a super inspired pick, but I find her unlikely too. If I had to place a bet right now, it would be Youn and Burstyn, if Vanessa Kirby lands a Best Actress nomination. Burstyn's got a great scene that would play like gangbusters to voters, but I don't see her getting in without Kirby, and I think Kirby's right now fighting for that fifth spot. Yeah definitely. I mean, she could get in without Kirby, as Supporting Actress is a wasteland, but it would be hard to predict her for a win in that case.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 28, 2021 14:45:25 GMT
I don't buy Seyfried for a second, at the moment. She hasn't gained any ground with critics, the movie isn't doing well and she isn't the kind of actress that would get a default Oscar from lack of competition at her first nod. Even Emma Stone had a nomination, and a more prestige career, before winning her first. Bakalova would be a super inspired pick, but I find her unlikely too. If I had to place a bet right now, it would be Youn and Burstyn, if Vanessa Kirby lands a Best Actress nomination. Burstyn's got a great scene that would play like gangbusters to voters, but I don't see her getting in without Kirby, and I think Kirby's right now fighting for that fifth spot. Who do you have in 4th then?
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 28, 2021 14:46:34 GMT
Who the heck is winning this? Seemed like such an easy one for Glenn Close...before the movie came out. If Minari can hold the line for the industry prizes, I think Youn would become the frontrunner. Her performance is the sort of scene-stealing, loud turn they like (and if they want to reward a tough-as-nails grandma in a coming-of-age movie in rural America, she's so much better than the alternative) -- the only thing holding her back is that she's pretty much an unknown to voters and her film could go either way right now. Bakalova is still too "out there" for the Academy, but Seyfried's losing a lot of ground and we only really have her penciled in as a de facto frontrunner because the two people getting most of the critical attention are in unorthodox films. And then there's always Colman, if SPC would get off their asses already. Now, if Bakalova suddenly can coup the Comedy/Musical Globe, then I might be swayed.I don't see why she wouldn't. From what I've seen, most people are predicting her to win it.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 28, 2021 15:11:37 GMT
Seyfried is still the front runner. I can see a path for her winning the majority of industry awards and cementing that status.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 30, 2021 1:45:20 GMT
Still think everyone's sleeping on Youn
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 30, 2021 2:17:12 GMT
Still think everyone's sleeping on Youn Good luck with that.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 30, 2021 16:05:20 GMT
If Minari can hold the line for the industry prizes, I think Youn would become the frontrunner. Her performance is the sort of scene-stealing, loud turn they like (and if they want to reward a tough-as-nails grandma in a coming-of-age movie in rural America, she's so much better than the alternative) -- the only thing holding her back is that she's pretty much an unknown to voters and her film could go either way right now. Bakalova is still too "out there" for the Academy, but Seyfried's losing a lot of ground and we only really have her penciled in as a de facto frontrunner because the two people getting most of the critical attention are in unorthodox films. And then there's always Colman, if SPC would get off their asses already. Now, if Bakalova suddenly can coup the Comedy/Musical Globe, then I might be swayed.I don't see why she wouldn't. From what I've seen, most people are predicting her to win it. Film Supporting Actress for the Globe isn't split between Drama and Comedy/Musical.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 30, 2021 16:36:05 GMT
I don't see why she wouldn't. From what I've seen, most people are predicting her to win it. Film Supporting Actress for the Globe isn't split between Drama and Comedy/Musical. I could be wrong but I remember reading somewhere that she's competing as a lead in GG.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 30, 2021 17:58:18 GMT
Film Supporting Actress for the Globe isn't split between Drama and Comedy/Musical. I could be wrong but I remember reading somewhere that she's competing as a lead in GG. Category fraud. She's been SA everywhere else. Even if she wins GG, she's not a big enough name to pull off an Oscar win and her film won't be a Best Picture nominee.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 31, 2021 0:39:04 GMT
I could be wrong but I remember reading somewhere that she's competing as a lead in GG. Category fraud. She's been SA everywhere else. Even if she wins GG, she's not a big enough name to pull off an Oscar win and her film won't be a Best Picture nominee. A lot of people would argue that Bakalova being pushed Supporting is the the true category fraud. But regardless, yes, she is going Lead at the Globes.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 31, 2021 2:15:03 GMT
I could be wrong but I remember reading somewhere that she's competing as a lead in GG. Category fraud. She's been SA everywhere else. Even if she wins GG, she's not a big enough name to pull off an Oscar win and her film won't be a Best Picture nominee. Actually the Globes put her in the right category. Everybody else is committing category fraud.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 31, 2021 2:23:44 GMT
Still think everyone's sleeping on Youn Unfortunately Asian actors generally don’t get jack shit at the Oscars. I think Seyfried wins this kind of by default do to a category weak on traditional contenders. Colman just won Bakalova is in an largely improvised crude comedy Nobody has seen Pieces of a Woman Close’s movie is pretty much hated As I mentioned Asian actors get almost no love While Seyfried is in a prestige role in a prestige film and has the age and physical appearance the academy loves. All of this is kind of gross but it is what it is.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 31, 2021 18:36:22 GMT
Still think everyone's sleeping on Youn Unfortunately Asian actors generally don’t get jack shit at the Oscars. I think Seyfried wins this kind of by default do to a category weak on traditional contenders. Colman just won Bakalova is in an largely improvised crude comedy Nobody has seen Pieces of a Woman Close’s movie is pretty much hated As I mentioned Asian actors get almost no love While Seyfried is in a prestige role in a prestige film and has the age and physical appearance the academy loves. All of this is kind of gross but it is what it is. Perhaps I'm being too naive and optimistic, but couldn't this be the time the Academy makes that shift? Parasite just won BP, more actors of color are going to be nominated than ever before, we might have 2 women nominated for best director and have our first Asian-American woman win Best Director--- times are sort of changing, and betting against Youn creates a self-fulfilling prophecy to me by building/perpetuating a racist narrative against her.
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avnermoriarti
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Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
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Post by avnermoriarti on Jan 31, 2021 18:52:44 GMT
Of course we have to wait for nominations but I can see Seyfried winning as a consolation prize for Mank if any other field is too competitive for the film to win, I like the idea of Youn being strong competition but if by any chance she gets it, more than a chance of mentality within he Academy I see it more as a result of the situations, the whole thing feels like an anomally.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 31, 2021 19:36:08 GMT
Unfortunately Asian actors generally don’t get jack shit at the Oscars. I think Seyfried wins this kind of by default do to a category weak on traditional contenders. Colman just won Bakalova is in an largely improvised crude comedy Nobody has seen Pieces of a Woman Close’s movie is pretty much hated As I mentioned Asian actors get almost no love While Seyfried is in a prestige role in a prestige film and has the age and physical appearance the academy loves. All of this is kind of gross but it is what it is. Perhaps I'm being too naive and optimistic, but couldn't this be the time the Academy makes that shift? Parasite just won BP, more actors of color are going to be nominated than ever before, we might have 2 women nominated for best director and have our first Asian-American woman win Best Director--- times are sort of changing, and betting against Youn creates a self-fulfilling prophecy to me by building/perpetuating a racist narrative against her. Youn is not known enough in the industry with Oscar voters - unlike most of the women who have won Supporting Actress in the last few years. And she is unlikely to be in a Best Picture winner like Lupita Nyong'o.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 31, 2021 19:46:04 GMT
Unfortunately Asian actors generally don’t get jack shit at the Oscars. I think Seyfried wins this kind of by default do to a category weak on traditional contenders. Colman just won Bakalova is in an largely improvised crude comedy Nobody has seen Pieces of a Woman Close’s movie is pretty much hated As I mentioned Asian actors get almost no love While Seyfried is in a prestige role in a prestige film and has the age and physical appearance the academy loves. All of this is kind of gross but it is what it is. Perhaps I'm being too naive and optimistic, but couldn't this be the time the Academy makes that shift? Parasite just won BP, more actors of color are going to be nominated than ever before, we might have 2 women nominated for best director and have our first Asian-American woman win Best Director--- times are sort of changing, and betting against Youn creates a self-fulfilling prophecy to me by building/perpetuating a racist narrative against her. You bring up Parasite but isn’t the fact that they didn’t nominate any of the actors for that movie kind of telling?
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 31, 2021 22:17:24 GMT
Perhaps I'm being too naive and optimistic, but couldn't this be the time the Academy makes that shift? Parasite just won BP, more actors of color are going to be nominated than ever before, we might have 2 women nominated for best director and have our first Asian-American woman win Best Director--- times are sort of changing, and betting against Youn creates a self-fulfilling prophecy to me by building/perpetuating a racist narrative against her. You bring up Parasite but isn’t the fact that they didn’t nominate any of the actors for that movie kind of telling? Kang-ho Song was the only one with a chance at a nomination-- the ensemble was so strong all the supporting actresses split voters. I'm not even sure which of them would have been the front runner. I could also see voters learning from that and going the opposite route this time, aware of the fact Song, Awkwafina, and Zhou were all just snubbed. Of course, there's a chance you could be right, and the trend could continue unfortunately, but why would you even want to bet that way especially when signs point to Youn being the turning point?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 1, 2021 0:08:01 GMT
You bring up Parasite but isn’t the fact that they didn’t nominate any of the actors for that movie kind of telling? Kang-ho Song was the only one with a chance at a nomination-- the ensemble was so strong all the supporting actresses split voters. I'm not even sure which of them would have been the front runner. I could also see voters learning from that and going the opposite route this time, aware of the fact Song, Awkwafina, and Zhou were all just snubbed. Of course, there's a chance you could be right, and the trend could continue unfortunately, but why would you even want to bet that way especially when signs point to Youn being the turning point? I really don’t see how signs are showing Youn being a potential winner. Critics awards usually mean very little and Oscar history is full of winners like Seyfried.
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Post by quetee on Feb 1, 2021 20:34:02 GMT
I'm sticking with My Cousin Vinny Part Deux.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 2, 2021 0:17:03 GMT
I'm sticking with My Cousin Vinny Part Deux. What does that mean??
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Post by franklin on Feb 2, 2021 0:31:34 GMT
1. Burstyn 2. Youn 3. Seyfried 4. Colman 5. Bakalova
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