Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2020 4:29:07 GMT
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 5, 2020 21:14:40 GMT
I'm actually leaning towards a Colman steamroll. I thought I’d bump up this topic since Mank just came out, and since I just posted in the Best Supporting Actor thread. This seems more and more likely to me now that not many people watched Mank on Netflix yet, and many of those that did, didn’t love it. Unless someone new pops up from the few movies left to screen, which seems unlikely imo, I think Colman just steamrolls this time similar to how Ali didn’t win everything with Moonlight, but then swept with Green Book a very short time later.
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Post by stephen on Dec 5, 2020 21:30:55 GMT
I'm actually leaning towards a Colman steamroll. I thought I’d bump up this topic since Mank just came out, and since I just posted in the Best Supporting Actor thread. This seems more and more likely to me now that not many people watched Mank on Netflix yet, and many of those that did, didn’t love it. Unless someone new pops up from the few movies left to screen, which seems unlikely imo, I think Colman just steamrolls this time similar to how Ali didn’t win everything with Moonlight, but then swept with Green Book a very short time later. After having seen Mank, while I think Seyfried would make a perfectly fine winner (certainly upper-tier for the category this decade), there's no real "it" moment for the performance, no real major hook or flashy awards-reel scene. Colman's assuredly going to have a much more dynamic role that will catch voters' eyes.
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Post by franklin on Dec 6, 2020 1:47:23 GMT
Seyfried is winning.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 6, 2020 14:44:34 GMT
Colman might pull a Colman on Amanda, though.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 9, 2020 13:53:24 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 27, 2020 17:36:15 GMT
I wonder if both of the older actress picks here Close and Burstyn both miss out on nods........this category is crickets right now in general.
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Drish
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Post by Drish on Dec 27, 2020 17:53:04 GMT
Is Loren still a contender? Loved her in The Life Ahead.
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Post by stephen on Dec 27, 2020 18:01:30 GMT
Is Loren still a contender? Loved her in The Life Ahead. Netflix has been pushing her as lead where she's been pretty well buried, when I think that if they had started with a supporting campaign, she'd be in a much better position.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 27, 2020 18:12:45 GMT
I always saw Loren as mostly a pipe dream, but went along with it for a few minutes because of the enthusiasm others were showing for the possibility.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2020 1:23:36 GMT
I wonder if both of the older actress picks here Close and Burstyn both miss out on nods........this category is crickets right now in general. Well, I definitely think "living legend" won't be as effective a campaign hook this season. In addition to Burstyn and Close, you've also got Hopkins and Loren working this angle.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 29, 2020 2:19:32 GMT
I wonder if both of the older actress picks here Close and Burstyn both miss out on nods........this category is crickets right now in general. Well, I definitely think "living legend" won't be as effective a campaign hook this season. In addition to Burstyn and Close, you've also got Hopkins and Loren working this angle. Close and Burstyn are just lucky that they're in a barren category in a weak year. In most year they would probably both miss considering HE's terrible reviews and the fact that Burstyn might be a lone nominee in Netflix's like 4th priority. Loren I don't think really has a chance in Lead, they really should have pushed her supporting.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 29, 2020 13:55:04 GMT
I wonder if Dominique Fishback can coattail here, or perhaps just get in on her own raves for Judas and the Black Messiah.
I know I saw her name pop up a bit before, but I wasn't sure how much of the buzz was real. However, I did see someone that got to see the film early give her a lot of praise, and with this category being so empty, I think she can get in since I'm not sure about Close, Burstyn, or even Bakalova and Youn with critics backing them.
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Post by stephen on Dec 29, 2020 15:49:46 GMT
I wonder if Dominique Fishback can coattail here, or perhaps just get in on her own raves for Judas and the Black Messiah. I know I saw her name pop up a bit before, but I wasn't sure how much of the buzz was real. However, I did see someone that got to see the film early give her a lot of praise, and with this category being so empty, I think she can get in since I'm not sure about Close, Burstyn, or even Bakalova and Youn with critics backing them. Word of mouth on Judas is very good so far, and I would love to see Fishback get that breakout, as I thought she was phenomenal on The Deuce and deserved more attention for it. I think it's doable for her to get in if her performance has the goods, because as you say, most of those getting buzz have massive cons working against them.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 29, 2020 18:09:36 GMT
Colman might pull a Colman on Amanda, though. Colman is too recent of a winner. And it's not like she been undeniable with the critics. Seyfried was runner-up with LAFC - and has the name recognition. This year's Anne Hathaway.
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Post by stephen on Dec 29, 2020 18:15:15 GMT
Colman might pull a Colman on Amanda, though. Colman is too recent of a winner. And it's not like she been undeniable with the critics. Seyfried was runner-up with LAFC - and has the name recognition. This year's Anne Hathaway. Colman doesn't have to be "undeniable" with the critics to win a second. Mahershala Ali and Christoph Waltz didn't sweep the critics' prizes on their way to their second wins. The thing with Seyfried is, on paper, she should be cleaning house with the critics at this stage . . . but she keeps getting pipped to the post by Youn and Bakalova. Even though both of those women have tough roads ahead due to the nature of their films and their general unknown statuses, Seyfried is by no means on the level of someone like Hathaway in 2012, who had a nomination under her belt by that time and who had a banner year (and had the role and the scene in her film). I think she's still the frontrunner right now because I think the other two women who have been winning things are going to struggle to actually get industry prizes, but if they actually do get nominated, all bets are off. And Colman's a late-breaker with a studio that knows what it's doing.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 29, 2020 18:15:35 GMT
Colman might pull a Colman on Amanda, though. Colman is too recent of a winner. And it's not like she been undeniable with the critics. Seyfried was runner-up with LAFC - and has the name recognition. This year's Anne Hathaway. Well, I also predict Amanda but who knows?? I wasn't predicting Colman two years ago, that's for sure!
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 29, 2020 21:29:20 GMT
Colman is too recent of a winner. And it's not like she been undeniable with the critics. Seyfried was runner-up with LAFC - and has the name recognition. This year's Anne Hathaway. Colman doesn't have to be "undeniable" with the critics to win a second. Mahershala Ali and Christoph Waltz didn't sweep the critics' prizes on their way to their second wins. The thing with Seyfried is, on paper, she should be cleaning house with the critics at this stage . . . but she keeps getting pipped to the post by Youn and Bakalova. Even though both of those women have tough roads ahead due to the nature of their films and their general unknown statuses, Seyfried is by no means on the level of someone like Hathaway in 2012, who had a nomination under her belt by that time and who had a banner year (and had the role and the scene in her film). I think she's still the frontrunner right now because I think the other two women who have been winning things are going to struggle to actually get industry prizes, but if they actually do get nominated, all bets are off. And Colman's a late-breaker with a studio that knows what it's doing. Seyfried has done better with the critics than Colman (who was their favorite 2 years ago). But Seyfried doesn't need to clean house with the critics. She has the name recognition in the industry. Hathaway was not the critics favorite, but she swept the industry awards. Ali was in a Best Picture winner. Waltz competed against previous winners. Colman won't have either narrative.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 3, 2021 8:21:20 GMT
My predictions at the moment:
1) Youn 2) Seyfried 3) Colman 4) Bakalova 5) Bergen
I'm swapping out Burstyn for Candice Bergen, and swapping Seyfried out for Youn for the win. I'm having a gut feeling there's more passion for Bergen that could simmer, and people are going to realize that especially after Parasite's snubs last year, it's time for an Asian actress to win.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 3, 2021 11:18:53 GMT
My predictions at the moment: 1) Youn2) Seyfried 3) Colman 4) Bakalova 5) BergenI'm swapping out Burstyn for Candice Bergen, and swapping Seyfried out for Youn for the win. I'm having a gut feeling there's more passion for Bergen that could simmer, and people are going to realize that especially after Parasite's snubs last year, it's time for an Asian actress to win. You probably should have just left it alone tbh.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2021 17:43:09 GMT
My predictions at the moment: 1) Youn2) Seyfried 3) Colman 4) Bakalova 5) BergenI think this is a totally conceivable lineup... We'll just have to wait and see how the major precursors shape the race. I would love a nomination for Bergen!
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 3, 2021 19:01:49 GMT
My predictions at the moment: 1) Youn2) Seyfried 3) Colman 4) Bakalova 5) BergenI'm swapping out Burstyn for Candice Bergen, and swapping Seyfried out for Youn for the win. I'm having a gut feeling there's more passion for Bergen that could simmer, and people are going to realize that especially after Parasite's snubs last year, it's time for an Asian actress to win. In the last few years, it is very difficult for an unknown to win in this category. Exception being Lupita Nyong'o, who was in a Best Picture winner. And it's not like Youn has been undeniable with the critics.
Smart money's on Seyfried.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 4, 2021 2:25:39 GMT
Youn could still miss the nom, a win is definitely not on the table.
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Post by michael128 on Jan 8, 2021 22:03:35 GMT
Could Burstyn sneak in based on her age? This pandemic has showed just how much we mistreat our elders and I think this could benefit her.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 28, 2021 11:19:40 GMT
Who the heck is winning this? Seemed like such an easy one for Glenn Close...before the movie came out.
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