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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 21, 2020 20:13:24 GMT
Indie Wire taking a break from fighting the patriarchy to assess BSA (kidding, kidding).......I guess we'll do this for every category as they do it - we had Best Actor a couple days back. I'll try to keep the Indie Wire jokes to a minimum Frontrunners: Olivia Colman (“The Father”) Debra Winger (“Kajillionaire”) Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”)
Contenders: Mary J. Blige (“Respect”) Abigail Breslin (“Stillwater”) Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) Toni Collette (“I’m Thinking of Ending Things”) Elizabeth Debicki (“Tenet”) Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) Jodie Foster (“Prisoner 760”) Nicole Kidman (“The Prom”) Elisabeth Moss (“Next Goal Wins”) Saoirse Ronan (“Ammonite”) Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) Meryl Streep (“The Prom”) Mare Winningham (“News of the World”) Helena Zengel (“News of the World”) www.indiewire.com/2020/07/oscars-2021-best-supporting-actress-predictions-1234575204/
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Post by Mattsby on Jul 21, 2020 20:20:47 GMT
I'm hoping Audra McDonald contends over Blige in Respect; also heard a rumor the runtime is 168m so maybe enough steam for both?
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Post by stephen on Jul 21, 2020 20:43:04 GMT
Feeling very good about Colman here for a spot: afterglow love, strong notices from Sundance, her co-star's a presumed frontrunner. Don't know if she can bag a second win so soon, but after Mahershala Ali couped two in three years, anything's possible.
You'd have to think that Close is probably gonna be Netflix's primary focus in this category, and from what I've heard, they've restructured the narrative from the memoir so that Adams is more of a leading role, which I guess frees up potential internal competition. At this point, the only thing she needs is for the film to not suck.
Is there evidence of which actress in Ammonite is going supporting, or could they finally decide to *gasp* promote both as leads? In any case, I think Ronan's probably a safe bet whichever category she winds up in, but I feel she's rising so much that they'll likely try to run her in lead.
Don't know enough about Kajillionaire to put money on a Winger comeback, but who knows.
Haven't read too much about Minari to know about anyone in it except Steven Yeun, but hopefully Parasite awakened people to the idea of actually nominating Asian actors.
The rest of the names listed all sound plausible (and really, I would give anything for Essie Davis to get some traction for her two standout turns this year in The True History of the Kelly Gang and Babyteeth), but the only two I really feel comfortable about predicting are the 2018 Best Actress duo rematch.
I also wanna throw a left-field name into the mix: Rebecca Ferguson. If Dune lands, Lady Jessica's a really great role and Ferguson has been on the cusp for a while of breaking out, and I think she's got the chops to sell it. Keep an eye out.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 21, 2020 20:58:41 GMT
Colman seems like the front runner. I hope Close gets in and unfortunately we may have another Meryl Streep happening...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 21, 2020 21:24:43 GMT
There's a pandemic going on and it's screwing everything up, so I haven't the faintest clue. My contribution for the immediate future doesn't extend beyond Da 5 Bloods skepticism.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 22, 2020 2:11:28 GMT
Close Colman Ronan Seyfried Zengel
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 22, 2020 15:15:48 GMT
Is there evidence of which actress in Ammonite is going supporting, or could they finally decide to *gasp* promote both as leads? In any case, I think Ronan's probably a safe bet whichever category she winds up in, but I feel she's rising so much that they'll likely try to run her in lead. From the synopsis, Winslet sounds much more like a lead and POV and Ronan more like a supporting role, where I think she has a strong chance to win. Then again, Mara's character was the POV character and clear main in Carol and we all know how that went so, we'll just have to see. I agree that they'll probably confident enough to run Ronan in lead but I think it's extremely unlikely Winslet will go supporting.
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Post by stephen on Jul 22, 2020 15:23:40 GMT
Is there evidence of which actress in Ammonite is going supporting, or could they finally decide to *gasp* promote both as leads? In any case, I think Ronan's probably a safe bet whichever category she winds up in, but I feel she's rising so much that they'll likely try to run her in lead. From the synopsis, Winslet sounds much more like a lead and POV and Ronan more like a supporting role, where I think she has a strong chance to win. Then again, Mara's character was the POV character and clear main in Carol and we all know how that went so, we'll just have to see. I agree that they'll probably confident enough to run Ronan in lead but I think it's extremely unlikely Winslet will go supporting. I think they'll go with whoever the showier character is in lead and the more passive perspective character in supporting, whoever that might be. I just don't feel like Ronan, with the way she's been rocketing up in stardom and acclaim, will get her first win in supporting. Just feels like they really are setting her up for an anointing in Best Actress -- it's all about timing at this point.
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Post by speeders on Jul 22, 2020 15:26:41 GMT
I'm feeling very confident in the first 3-4, the fifth spot feels wide open. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy Saiorse Ronan, Ammonite Olivia Colman, The Father Amanda Seyfried, Mank Mary J. Blige, Respect Alt. Audra Macdonald, Repect Lily Collins, Mank Meryl Streep, The Prom I'd love if Elizabeth Debicki or Toni Collette got nominated but I'm extremely doubtful. I think Elisabeth Moss would make sense in supporting in Shirley (Young is far more lead than her imo) but I still think Neon will campaign her in lead. McDormand in Macbeth I suspect will be pushed til next year.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 22, 2020 23:18:25 GMT
Close vs. Colman Round II.
01. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 02. Olivia Colman, The Father 03. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite 04. Ariana DaBose, West Side Story 05. Amanda Seyfried, Mank 06. Helena Zengel, News of the World 07. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth 08. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari 09. Meryl Streep, The Prom 10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 23, 2020 2:42:06 GMT
Close vs. Colman Round II. 01. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 02. Olivia Colman, The Father 03. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite 04. Ariana DaBose, West Side Story 05. Amanda Seyfried, Mank 06. Helena Zengel, News of the World 07. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth 08. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari 09. Meryl Streep, The Prom 10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans This really is a very exciting prospect.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 24, 2020 16:31:44 GMT
So let's just say that I've totally hypothetically heard some things that point towards Hillbilly Elegy being pretty damn bad, like practically red on Metacritic bad, who wins? Because I don't see Close winning if her film as those type of reviews and has to keep momentum going from November through to April.
Does one of Seyfried or Zengel win their first or does Colman get 2 in 3 years?
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 24, 2020 16:54:24 GMT
Horrible reviews for Hillbilly Elegy could sink Close's hopes. AMPAS rarely hands out wins for complete criticical turkeys.
If fates take Close out of the running, it's probably Colman getting her 2nd, with Seyfried as the dark horse. Zengel I don't see as a threat to win (they've done that already with Anna Paquin, and I feel AMPAS has become super reluctant to reward child actors since). A nomination would be her reward.
But assuming her film doesn't completely shit the bed (and Ron Howard is usually a safe, if uninspiring, pair of hands when it comes to middlebrow Oscarbait), Close probably has it in the bag.
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2020 16:57:39 GMT
So let's just say that I've totally hypothetically heard some things that point towards Hillbilly Elegy being pretty damn bad, like practically red on Metacritic bad, who wins? Because I don't see Close winning if her film as those type of reviews and has to keep momentum going from November through to April. Does one of Seyfried or Zengel win their first or does Colman get 2 in 3 years? I think that recent years have proven that a performance can win in a film that gets trashed, and Close's overdue narrative is such that they'll probably just throw up their hands and say, "Fuck it, we know it's bad, but it's a crap year anyway and we might as well give it to her regardless." But if it turns out the film is too radioactive for a Close win, then I'd say Seyfried and Colman are our biggest contenders. In a vacuum, Colman could easily win her second (she's got the raves and the studio), but Seyfried's evidently got the goods as well. Still, I think Netflix would have to fully bail on Hillbilly Elegy entirely and go hard for a Seyfried campaign for her to have much of a shot.
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Post by finniussnrub on Oct 24, 2020 20:33:15 GMT
So let's just say that I've totally hypothetically heard some things that point towards Hillbilly Elegy being pretty damn bad, like practically red on Metacritic bad, who wins? Because I don't see Close winning if her film as those type of reviews and has to keep momentum going from November through to April. Does one of Seyfried or Zengel win their first or does Colman get 2 in 3 years? I think that recent years have proven that a performance can win in a film that gets trashed, and Close's overdue narrative is such that they'll probably just throw up their hands and say, "Fuck it, we know it's bad, but it's a crap year anyway and we might as well give it to her regardless." But if it turns out the film is too radioactive for a Close win, then I'd say Seyfried and Colman are our biggest contenders. In a vacuum, Colman could easily win her second (she's got the raves and the studio), but Seyfried's evidently got the goods as well. Still, I think Netflix would have to fully bail on Hillbilly Elegy entirely and go hard for a Seyfried campaign for her to have much of a shot. I wouldn't say that is quite true, as films like Joker, Green Book and Judy were all in general well received despite having vocal detractors. Even Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't panned (had a 60% on RT), and was beloved by the general public based on its box-office and audience scores.
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2020 20:49:04 GMT
I think that recent years have proven that a performance can win in a film that gets trashed, and Close's overdue narrative is such that they'll probably just throw up their hands and say, "Fuck it, we know it's bad, but it's a crap year anyway and we might as well give it to her regardless." But if it turns out the film is too radioactive for a Close win, then I'd say Seyfried and Colman are our biggest contenders. In a vacuum, Colman could easily win her second (she's got the raves and the studio), but Seyfried's evidently got the goods as well. Still, I think Netflix would have to fully bail on Hillbilly Elegy entirely and go hard for a Seyfried campaign for her to have much of a shot. I wouldn't say that is quite true, as films like Joker, Green Book and Judy were all in general well received despite having vocal detractors. Even Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't panned (had a 60% on RT), and was beloved by the general public based on its box-office and audience scores. I was thinking more The Danish Girl, but then I looked back at the RT/MC rating and it's not reflective of that film's quality at all, so what do I know?
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Post by DanQuixote on Oct 25, 2020 0:04:27 GMT
1. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy 2. Olivia Colman - The Father 3. Amanda Seyfried - Mank 4. Helena Zengel - News of the World 5. Meryl Streep - The Prom
If they push Meryl in Lead for The Prom, I'd say Saoirse Ronan replaces her for Ammonite I guess?
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Oct 25, 2020 0:11:33 GMT
1. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy 2. Olivia Colman - The Father 3. Amanda Seyfried - Mank 4. Helena Zengel - News of the World 5. Meryl Streep - The Prom
If they push Meryl in Lead for The Prom, I'd say Saoirse Ronan replaces her for Ammonite I guess? Don't put that out in the world
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Post by stephen on Oct 25, 2020 0:18:29 GMT
5. Meryl Streep - The Prom I just threw up in my mouth a little.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2020 0:29:10 GMT
5. Meryl Streep - The Prom I just threw up in my mouth a little. I’ve even seen talk of a fourth win! Apparently this role was such a fun crowd-pleaser on Broadway. I just can’t imagine a Ryan Murphy film being taken “seriously” by Oscar voters?
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 25, 2020 1:18:14 GMT
I just threw up in my mouth a little. I’ve even seen talk of a fourth win! Apparently this role was such a fun crowd-pleaser on Broadway. I just can’t imagine a Ryan Murphy film being taken “seriously” by Oscar voters? Where???
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Post by franklin on Oct 25, 2020 11:25:37 GMT
1. Close 2. Colman 3. Seyfried 4. Burstyn 5. Collins
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 25, 2020 14:31:46 GMT
I'm just going to throw this out there as a complete dark horse/wildcard for a nom: Maria Bakalova
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 10, 2020 15:20:26 GMT
So let's just say that I've totally hypothetically heard some things that point towards Hillbilly Elegy being pretty damn bad, like practically red on Metacritic bad, who wins? Because I don't see Close winning if her film as those type of reviews and has to keep momentum going from November through to April. Does one of Seyfried or Zengel win their first or does Colman get 2 in 3 years?
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Post by ptacoenlover on Nov 10, 2020 16:11:10 GMT
Yeah I’m very confident in Seyfried winning now.
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