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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 10, 2020 16:26:44 GMT
I'm actually leaning towards a Colman steamroll.
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Post by stephen on Nov 10, 2020 16:33:21 GMT
I'm actually leaning towards a Colman steamroll. I could definitely see her path mirroring Mahershala Ali's second win. Ali lost the Globe and BAFTA his first go-around, so he wound up just collecting the prizes he missed in 2016 and (Christoph) waltzed his way to a second Oscar. I don't know if I can see SAG rallying to reward Close again so soon, and I could definitely see Colman winning there now that she's a known quantity. If she takes BAFTA (which considering her film is probably the big British contender of the year, it's likely), well, SAG + BAFTA is a hell of a combo. The Father really can't be underestimated as a contender across the board. Zeller is showing muscle in the director's race (for his debut, no less) and Colman's afterglow love and general charm could be all she needs, coupled with the momentum of the film and her co-star being the frontrunner. In the last decade, we've seen people double down on Oscar wins in quick succession (Waltz, Ali) and I think Colman has the pedigree, the talent, and the versatility to go two for two. (Side-note: this might also happen with Mark Rylance this year as well.) Critics love her. The industry has already shown they love her. She cannot be counted out.
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Post by pupdurcs on Nov 10, 2020 16:39:11 GMT
I'm actually leaning towards a Colman steamroll. I could definitely see her path mirroring Mahershala Ali's second win. Ali lost the Globe and BAFTA his first go-around, so he wound up just collecting the prizes he missed in 2016 and (Christoph) waltzed his way to a second Oscar. I don't know if I can see SAG rallying to reward Close again so soon, and I could definitely see Colman winning there now that she's a known quantity. If she takes BAFTA (which considering her film is probably the big British contender of the year, it's likely), well, SAG + BAFTA is a hell of a combo. The Father really can't be underestimated as a contender across the board. Zeller is showing muscle in the director's race (for his debut, no less) and Colman's afterglow love and general charm could be all she needs, coupled with the momentum of the film and her co-star being the frontrunner. In the last decade, we've seen people double down on Oscar wins in quick succession (Waltz, Ali) and I think Colman has the pedigree, the talent, and the versatility to go two for two. (Side-note: this might also happen with Mark Rylance this year as well.) Critics love her. The industry has already shown they love her. She cannot be counted out. Seyfried is the most praised performance in Mank.And she's a hot young babe. Advantadge: Amanda
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Post by stephen on Nov 10, 2020 16:43:57 GMT
I could definitely see her path mirroring Mahershala Ali's second win. Ali lost the Globe and BAFTA his first go-around, so he wound up just collecting the prizes he missed in 2016 and (Christoph) waltzed his way to a second Oscar. I don't know if I can see SAG rallying to reward Close again so soon, and I could definitely see Colman winning there now that she's a known quantity. If she takes BAFTA (which considering her film is probably the big British contender of the year, it's likely), well, SAG + BAFTA is a hell of a combo. The Father really can't be underestimated as a contender across the board. Zeller is showing muscle in the director's race (for his debut, no less) and Colman's afterglow love and general charm could be all she needs, coupled with the momentum of the film and her co-star being the frontrunner. In the last decade, we've seen people double down on Oscar wins in quick succession (Waltz, Ali) and I think Colman has the pedigree, the talent, and the versatility to go two for two. (Side-note: this might also happen with Mark Rylance this year as well.) Critics love her. The industry has already shown they love her. She cannot be counted out. Seyfried is the most praised performance in Mank.And she's a hot young babe. Advantadge: Amanda Seyfried's looking extremely good at the moment, and it helps that she's playing a real-life character and is getting the best ink for her film. It just remains to be seen whether or not the Academy will anoint her, or if they still feel she hasn't paid her dues and makes her wait a while. It happens just as often as the ingenue winning Best Actress.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Nov 11, 2020 2:14:58 GMT
Seyfried is the most praised performance in Mank.And she's a hot young babe. Advantadge: Amanda Seyfried's looking extremely good at the moment, and it helps that she's playing a real-life character and is getting the best ink for her film. It just remains to be seen whether or not the Academy will anoint her, or if they still feel she hasn't paid her dues and makes her wait a while. It happens just as often as the ingenue winning Best Actress. Yeah, but that's not the case here, Seyfried is well known for more than 15 years at this point, since Mean Girls.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2020 2:30:43 GMT
Seyfried's looking extremely good at the moment, and it helps that she's playing a real-life character and is getting the best ink for her film. It just remains to be seen whether or not the Academy will anoint her, or if they still feel she hasn't paid her dues and makes her wait a while. It happens just as often as the ingenue winning Best Actress. Yeah, but that's not the case here, Seyfried is well known for more than 15 years at this point, since Mean Girls. True, but look how long it took her Mean Girls co-star to get some awards attention, and she was in the eventual Best Picture winner . . . and still lost. Yes, she lost to another young and relatively unknown actress, but Vikander had a banner year going (and category fraud). Seyfried has the chops, the raves, and the role, I don't deny it. But remember that Fincher has never yet directed an actor to a win yet, and Colman could easily replicate Mahershala Ali's path. She is a proven quantity with the Academy, and she will set the campaign trail alight with her charm once again (it helps that The Crown is getting insanely good reviews for its fourth season, so people will be seeing her everywhere). If Close is indeed out of the running for the win, the question becomes more about timing. Seyfried has the benefit of the earlier general release, but The Father is closer to the actual awards and has a studio with a better track record (Netflix, for all its money, has only bagged a single acting win, and that was only last year). Right now, I'd say they're on an even footing. If one becomes a critical favorite and starts sweeping, that could be enough, but I could see them paying Colman back at SAG and BAFTA following suit.
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Post by franklin on Nov 11, 2020 11:14:26 GMT
1. Seyfried 2. Colman 3. Close 4. Burstyn 5. Youn
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Post by JangoB on Nov 11, 2020 12:41:29 GMT
Damn, if Colman wins this category...against Close...AGAIN This'll be straight up savagery of popcorn-eating proportions.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2020 13:32:35 GMT
Damn, if Colman wins this category...against Close...AGAIN This'll be straight up savagery of popcorn-eating proportions. I'd be lying if I said this thought hadn't crossed my mind multiple times a day, but then again:
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Nov 11, 2020 15:18:52 GMT
Yeah, but that's not the case here, Seyfried is well known for more than 15 years at this point, since Mean Girls. True, but look how long it took her Mean Girls co-star to get some awards attention, and she was in the eventual Best Picture winner . . . and still lost. Yes, she lost to another young and relatively unknown actress, but Vikander had a banner year going (and category fraud). Seyfried has the chops, the raves, and the role, I don't deny it. But remember that Fincher has never yet directed an actor to a win yet, and Colman could easily replicate Mahershala Ali's path. She is a proven quantity with the Academy, and she will set the campaign trail alight with her charm once again (it helps that The Crown is getting insanely good reviews for its fourth season, so people will be seeing her everywhere). If Close is indeed out of the running for the win, the question becomes more about timing. Seyfried has the benefit of the earlier general release, but The Father is closer to the actual awards and has a studio with a better track record (Netflix, for all its money, has only bagged a single acting win, and that was only last year). Right now, I'd say they're on an even footing. If one becomes a critical favorite and starts sweeping, that could be enough, but I could see them paying Colman back at SAG and BAFTA following suit.
Heh...in the first paragraph you seem to be mistaking her for Rachel McAdams. And "Fincher never directed someone to Oscar victory" is a fact that means absolutely nothing.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2020 15:24:49 GMT
Heh...in the first paragraph you seem to be mistaking her for Rachel McAdams. And "Fincher never directed someone to Oscar victory" is a fact that means absolutely nothing.
McAdams was who I was referring to in the first paragraph. I was talking about how McAdams, who fits in the same general mold and was perceived as the bigger breakout from that movie, still took forever to be recognized by the Academy, and still couldn't coup a win in the end. Fincher's films are generally more cerebral and don't play to the typical style of acting that the Academy generally gravitates towards. His style of directing dozens of takes has actually copped criticism in this regard from the older guard of actors (re: Robert Duvall) about whether it constitutes actual acting or simply repetition. Seyfried would be breaking the mold here.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Nov 12, 2020 13:14:12 GMT
Heh...in the first paragraph you seem to be mistaking her for Rachel McAdams. And "Fincher never directed someone to Oscar victory" is a fact that means absolutely nothing.
McAdams was who I was referring to in the first paragraph. I was talking about how McAdams, who fits in the same general mold and was perceived as the bigger breakout from that movie, still took forever to be recognized by the Academy, and still couldn't coup a win in the end. Fincher's films are generally more cerebral and don't play to the typical style of acting that the Academy generally gravitates towards. His style of directing dozens of takes has actually copped criticism in this regard from the older guard of actors (re: Robert Duvall) about whether it constitutes actual acting or simply repetition. Seyfried would be breaking the mold here. Regarding McAdams, you're missing the most important element there- her actual performance, which is fine, but it was always very clearly too subdued and small to have any chance of winning, even if Spotlight was a ROTK/Titanic type of sweeper (specially in Best Supporting Actress, which almost always goes to very showy and big performances). Her being nominated at all is a statement of how much they liked her and the film.
It also doesn't really matter whether Fincher directed anyone to a win or not, because no one chooses to vote or not vote on actor because of who the director is. And I seem to recall people doubting DDL could win for Lincoln because Spielberg's actors had never won at that point, after 40 years making movies and many nominations- not only he did, but Rylance ended up winning as well. And it's not like the director of The Father has a big track record either.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2020 19:39:37 GMT
Going with:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy Olivia Colman, The Father Amanda Seyfried, Mank Helena Zengel, News of the World
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Post by DanQuixote on Nov 16, 2020 20:01:29 GMT
01. Amanda Seyfried, Mank 02. Olivia Colman, The Father 03. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 04. Helena Zengel, News of the World 05. Young Yuh-Jung, Minari 06. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite 07. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman 08. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 09. Charlene Swankie, Nomadland 10. Lesley Manville, Let Him Go
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Post by speeders on Nov 16, 2020 22:25:28 GMT
Amanda Seyfried, Mank Olivia Colman, The Father Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman Young Yuh-Jung, Minari
HM: Helena Zengel, News of the World Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite Charlene Swankie, Nomadland
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 17, 2020 1:18:58 GMT
Bakalova Close Colman Seyfried Zengel
Youn Burstyn Ronan
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 17, 2020 14:18:48 GMT
Heh...in the first paragraph you seem to be mistaking her for Rachel McAdams. And "Fincher never directed someone to Oscar victory" is a fact that means absolutely nothing.
McAdams was who I was referring to in the first paragraph. I was talking about how McAdams, who fits in the same general mold and was perceived as the bigger breakout from that movie, still took forever to be recognized by the Academy, and still couldn't coup a win in the end. Fincher's films are generally more cerebral and don't play to the typical style of acting that the Academy generally gravitates towards. His style of directing dozens of takes has actually copped criticism in this regard from the older guard of actors (re: Robert Duvall) about whether it constitutes actual acting or simply repetition. Seyfried would be breaking the mold here. I'm going to be even worse than prognosticating than usual this year just because things have been so weird, but for some reason unless someone surprises like in The United vs. Billie Holiday even though Day has all the buzz right now, or Davis going Supporting which I don't see happening at all, I think Colman just wins her second. I guess technically Seyfried would fit closest to the "It" girl that often wins, but I guess I never felt she really reached that title even though there was a time where she was being pushed a lot by the Industry. On the other hand, I do feel that Seyfried's two other Mean Girls costars, McAdams, before she took a hiatus, and Lohan, before her personal demons became too much, were being pushed like that and had McAdams continued the same trajectory that she was on or if Lohan didn't have the struggles that she did that they both would have won. This isn't to say Seyfried can't win this year, but for me she's sort of in a weird place right now in that she doesn't fit the mold of the beloved veteran that's won this category for 5 out of the last 6 times, and she's not an ingénue that broke through like with Nyong'o and Vikander. Looking back at the category over the years, it's hard to find a good comparison because every case is going to be a little different. Like I thought about Cruz, but she won 2 of the big 3 and had been nominated for Volver a few years before her win. Maybe Rachel Weisz although The Constant Gardener wasn't a BP nominee like Mank will be; although, it would have been after they expanded the category. She was around the same age that Seyfried is now too and won on her first nomination. Of course Seyfried does have the element of surprise in that some probably wrote her off and didn't think she had this kind of performance in her, but I don't know that's enough. In a regular year, I think she would get the nomination, but would be unlikely to win unless she manages to sweep the big 3 critics, but I don't see that happening this year. I could see her winning 1 of the 3, but I think the critics will probably want to do their own thing in this category, and maybe giving a boost to someone who needs it more. I think Seyfried's big advantage is that Colman just won recently which might not matter because the Academy has been kinder to awarding second and even third wins this past decade. Plus now that there seems to be more of a race in Best Actor, if Hopkins does lose, that might help Colman because then they won't be giving The Father two acting awards, and she can be where they award it.
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Post by michael128 on Nov 17, 2020 14:35:06 GMT
My NGNG final prediction is that Ronan will win. 13 years after her first nomination in this very category? That narrative is simply way too strong for the Academy to ignore. She'll collect her lead Oscar in 3-4 years and her transformation into Meryl Streep will be complete. 2010 vs 2020
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Post by franklin on Nov 17, 2020 15:27:54 GMT
My NGNG final prediction is that Ronan will win. 13 years after her first nomination in this very category? That narrative is simply way too strong for the Academy to ignore. She'll collect her lead Oscar in 3-4 years and her transformation into Meryl Streep will be complete. 2010 vs 2020 Despite the hype from certain sections of Film Twitter, she will never become the next Meryl Streep. I'll be honest, aside from the fact that I find her extremely overrated, and outside of her collaborations with Greta Gerwig her track record in Oscar nominations is not that good.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 17, 2020 16:00:04 GMT
My NGNG final prediction is that Ronan will win. 13 years after her first nomination in this very category? That narrative is simply way too strong for the Academy to ignore. She'll collect her lead Oscar in 3-4 years and her transformation into Meryl Streep will be complete. 2010 vs 2020 It’s going to be hard for her to win when she doesn’t even get nominated.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Nov 17, 2020 16:13:17 GMT
Sersha isn't getting nominated.The reviews about her performance are lukewarm at best.Winslet will be the lone nom for Ammonite.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 17, 2020 16:20:38 GMT
Who knows whether Michael is even being serious anyway. He's like the boy who cried wolf.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Nov 17, 2020 19:03:49 GMT
Oh God ! Imagine if Colman beats Close again
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 25, 2020 3:42:04 GMT
Does Close even get nominated at this point? Not only do critics hate it (39 on MC, 27% on RT), general audiences don't give a shit either (2.4 on LB, 6.0 on IMDB).
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 25, 2020 3:58:55 GMT
Does Close even get nominated at this point? Not only do critics hate it (39 on MC, 27% on RT), general audiences don't give a shit either (2.4 on LB, 6.0 on IMDB). I already wrote her off when the reviews first came out. I guess there’s still a possibility that she could be nominated because of the pandemic, but even then I think they’ll be able to find another option. It sucks because after the trailer, I thought she looked like a shoo-in to win as long as HE didn’t get panned, but then obviously it did.
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