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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 24, 2019 1:34:24 GMT
Before we begin, lets start out with Best Ensemble/Actor's Best Picture. These awards tend to be the LEAST accurate as far as a Best Picture gauge, even though the acting branch is the largest branch of the academy. They have been accurate 11/23 times. 8 of those 11 seasons where when they were attached to a film with both PGA and DGA wins.
As far as the acting awards, it's a radically different story.
Best Actor is 19/24 times. 20 if you count Bencio Del Toro winning the Best Actor Guild for Traffic. Best Actress is 18/24 times. Best Supporting Actor is 15/24 Best Supporting Actress is 18/24
In other words, there's between a 63% and 83% shot, the Guild acting winners will go on to win acting Oscars.
BEST ACTOR It's between Rami Malek and Christian Bale. Malek won the Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. Bale won Best Actor for a Comedy/Musical and the Critics Choice Best Actor.
BEST ACTRESS It's three-way between Lady Gaga (Critics Choice), Glenn Close (Critics Choice and Globe), and Olivia Colman (Globe).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Between Mahershala Ali (Globe and Critics Choice) and Richard E. Grant (Critics Circle champion).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Anybody's game
BEST ENSEMBLE Everybody can win here.
I say
Bale Close Ali Adams Rhapsody
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Post by stephen on Jan 24, 2019 1:37:41 GMT
Javier Bardom winning the Best Actor Guild for Traffic. Uh...
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 24, 2019 1:40:56 GMT
Bale, Close, Ali, Adams, Blackkklasman
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 24, 2019 1:42:06 GMT
Javier Bardom winning the Best Actor Guild for Traffic. Uh... I get those guys mixed up. I did indeed correct the record.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 24, 2019 1:58:20 GMT
BEST ACTOR RAMI MALEK
BEST ACTRESS GLENN CLOSE
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR SAM ELLIOTT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS AMY ADAMS (hm : RACHEL WEISZ)
BEST ENSEMBLE BLACK PANTHER
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 24, 2019 1:59:59 GMT
Still think Cooper is in the conversation. Would not be shocked if he surprised here and has a late surge going into the Oscars.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 24, 2019 2:15:07 GMT
Rami Malek Glenn Close Mahershala Ali Amy Adams
Black Panther
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 24, 2019 3:15:22 GMT
Best Ensemble: Bohemian Rhapsody mostly because the worst case scenario seems to be happening more often than not. Plus it got this far being a crowd pleaser for most that I think that it will continue that until Sunday night. Had the article about Bryan Singer came out before voting started or before most had voted, I would go with something else, but I think the article came too late.
Best Actor: Rami Malek. He was strong enough to pull in Bohemian Rhapsody for Ensemble that I don't think he'll lose here.
Best Actress: Glenn Close. Before the Globes I thought that Lady Gaga would win here as I expected SAG to go with the most populist choice, and I underestimated Close's overdue narrative. I think the Globes moments clinched it for Close though.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali. I guess they could go with Elliott if they want to go with the veteran who has never won, but SAG hasn't done that for awhile.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams. I really don't know because I think it could be anyone here. However, I think Stone and Weisz suffer from the fact that neither became the obvious choice to go with. So it's more like a Thelma and Louise situation imo, where both actresses are excellent that it's very difficult just to single out one actress. And for Blunt and Robbie, I think the nomination will be seen as the reward.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Jan 24, 2019 4:38:15 GMT
Bale Close Ali Weisz
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 24, 2019 8:55:40 GMT
Best Ensemble: Bohemian Rhapsody.
Best Actor: Rami Malek.
Best Actress: Glenn Close.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali.
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz. If not her, Emily Blunt. (Probably wishful thinking, I know)
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 24, 2019 14:05:54 GMT
I'm going go with these:
Best Ensemble: A Star is Born
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper
Best Actress: Glenn Close
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Elliott
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
I just have this feeling A Star is Born will hit here
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 24, 2019 14:17:33 GMT
Bale (Malek is super close) Close Ali Adams but holding out for a Favourite upset A Star is Born (could very well end up being BR)
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Jan 24, 2019 16:28:01 GMT
BlacKKKlansman Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Glenn Close, The Wife Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Amy Adams, Vice
Statistically, BlacKKKlansman is the one in the lineup that's done the best and missed the least, and it is in keeping with recent winners of the category, being both woke and having a good mixture of film people, TV people, and a token veteran for good measure. Malek seems like Redmayne 2.0, having pulled his film along to a surprise nomination in the Ensemble category, in a much more populist and widely seen film than Bale. Honestly, I'd put Cooper ahead of Bale in this category too, for the same reasons as Malek. Close is a given, as The Favourite missed in Ensemble despite being the comfortable frontrunner, and Gaga's film is on the downswing. Going out on a limb here for Elliott, since I don't see A Star Is Born missing all four of its nominations and going home empty-handed, and I'm not predicting it elsewhere. One could make a valid argument for Grant as well, as an alternative to Ali. I'm not predicting Ali because SAG already awarded him two years ago and they are very averse to repeat winners. I concur with the folks who say that his Globe was in large part due to their desire to make things up to him after he lost for Moonlight. SAG doesn't have to worry about that, so I think they'll be free to go for someone else, and Elliott is very much a typical career achievement winner in this category, I think I referred to him as "Ruby Dee with a penis" about a month ago when I was speculating about his prospects for this exact award, haha. And lastly, Adam is a foregone conclusion. Period.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 24, 2019 16:36:42 GMT
A Star is Born, Malek, Close, Ali, Blunt.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 27, 2019 0:35:53 GMT
A Star is Born, Malek, Close, Ali, Blunt. That's quite bold of you
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 27, 2019 1:32:30 GMT
A Star is Born, Malek, Close, Ali, Blunt. That's quite bold of you Thank you! I've been predicting Blunt more or less since the nominations came out, and though her double-snub at the Oscars has made me more wary now, I'm still gonna stick by the pick. The way I see it is, everyone is taking a total shot in the dark with this category. If I'm right, I look like a genius. If I'm wrong, I don't look like any more of an idiot than at least half the other people making predictions. It's bizarre that Blunt seems to be so well-liked by SAG but less so by the Academy's acting branch, but, still, the double nomination suggests that this voting body particularly likes her, and I think they'd like to award her somewhere. A Quiet Place is a very well-liked movie that some will want to see recognized, and the fact that she got in here without hitting any other major precursors shows that SAG has passion for the performance. Moreover, I'm not buying that Adams will win anything for Vice until I see it for myself. She's fine, but it's such a minor performance, and she's hardly been talked about at all compared to Bale and many other aspects of the film, and not even critics groups have given her much recognition. I honestly think the only winner that would surprise me more than Adams here is Robbie. Somehow, Blunt winning just makes way more sense in my mind.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 27, 2019 1:45:31 GMT
That's quite bold of you Thank you! I've been predicting Blunt more or less since the nominations came out, and though her double-snub at the Oscars has made me more wary now, I'm still gonna stick by the pick. The way I see it is, everyone is taking a total shot in the dark with this category. If I'm right, I look like a genius. If I'm wrong, I don't look like any more of an idiot than at least half the other people making predictions. It's bizarre that Blunt seems to be so well-liked by SAG but less so by the Academy's acting branch, but, still, the double nomination suggests that this voting body particularly likes her, and I think they'd like to award her somewhere. A Quiet Place is a very well-liked movie that some will want to see recognized, and the fact that she got in here without hitting any other major precursors shows that SAG has passion for the performance. Moreover, I'm not buying that Adams will win anything for Vice until I see it for myself. She's fine, but it's such a minor performance, and she's hardly been talked about at all compared to Bale and many other aspects of the film, and not even critics groups have given her much recognition. I honestly think the only winner that would surprise me more than Adams here is Robbie. Somehow, Blunt winning just makes way more sense in my mind. It would be like Idris Elba's shocking win 3 years ago for BONN .
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avnermoriarti
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Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
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Post by avnermoriarti on Jan 27, 2019 6:16:11 GMT
Hats off to whoever gets right ensamble
Overall I think it's gonna be a very boring show
Ensamble. Black Panther ( seems populist enough to me to win, is sag after all. BR is such a one man show and Blackkklansman is possible but the passion is not as strong as I thought )
Actor. the chamaleonic Rami Malek ( because of the eyes ) Actress. Glenn Close Supp. Actor. Mehershala Ali Supp. Actress. Amy Adams
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Post by JangoB on Jan 27, 2019 22:52:52 GMT
Fucking Black Panther won Best Stunt Ensemble. Yeah, riding CG rhinos sure is more deserving than what the stuns folks did in MI Fallout. I guess this is gonna become their 'woke comic book movie' award, seeing how Wonder Woman won last year as well.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 27, 2019 23:10:49 GMT
Fucking Black Panther won Best Stunt Ensemble. Yeah, riding CG rhinos sure is more deserving than what the stuns folks did in MI Fallout. I guess this is gonna become their 'woke comic book movie' award, seeing how Wonder Woman won last year as well. Did they already announce the stunt category? I don't think it wins the other Ensemble awards now. I wasn't predicting it too, but I could see why people were. I don't think it's winning both awards though since Jordan missed here, and the industry seems rather meh on it compared to the hype that was surrounding it like how some said it would lead the nominations or that it would get in for director and screenplay.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 28, 2019 0:28:10 GMT
Blackkklansman Malek Close Elliot Adams
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 28, 2019 1:10:25 GMT
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AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Jan 28, 2019 1:22:21 GMT
Is this our SAG thread?
I really gotta watch The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 28, 2019 1:30:26 GMT
I FUCKING CALLED IT LOOOL
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AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Jan 28, 2019 1:31:06 GMT
Emily Blunt? Well this works in King’s favor.
I wasn’t that big on A Quiet Place but I’m sure this feels really good for her after being snubbed at the Oscars.
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