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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 15, 2023 0:13:15 GMT
I wanted to create a thread for this category because The Film Experience finally have their first set of predictions out... And DiCaprio is in sixth place. Here's the Top 5 ranking: 1. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer3. Colman Domingo, Rustin4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro5. Barry Keoghan, SaltburnSo... What do you think? Let's discuss!
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Post by stephen on Aug 15, 2023 0:29:15 GMT
DiCaprio missing a nomination would stun me, though to be fair, I am surprised he missed for Don't Look Up. Admittedly, that's a satirical comedy that was clearly divisive, but I still thought it would be easy for him to get nominated, especially as he hit all the precursors up to that point and he's DiCaprio. I didn't think he would be vulnerable to miss while in his heyday.
Now with that said, I think him missing for a Scorsese film that's arguably a top-three contender with career-best reviews is a bit hard to swallow. I think he's probably going to replicate his Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood run: a secure spot but probably won't rise higher than third place. But I seriously can't see him missing unless we get some murderously good Best Actor contenders.
Right now I have (in order) Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo, Keoghan and Murphy. I'm thinking The Holdovers might be getting over-estimated at this rate.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 15, 2023 2:13:14 GMT
Cooper DiCaprio Domingo Giamatti Murphy
Keoghan
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Post by finniussnrub on Aug 15, 2023 2:24:41 GMT
1. Cooper (if he pulls Maestro off, he could be undeniable, as famous egotistical genius conductor seems like academy catnip, and it helps actually that Blanchett lost for Tar since they do like to pause on types of winners occasionally). 2. DiCaprio (If he's in a top five contender, I don't see how you can doubt him, particularly when he and the film already have the reviews. He also has the "cred" to pull off a second win, eventually.) 3. Murphy (He might turn into a Cumberbatch (Imitation Game) or Oldman (Mank), where he's a consistent nominee rather than contender, but I think if Oppenheimer is top five, he HAS to be. As rarely are iconic figures denied nominations, particularly not when in a top five contender.) 4. Domingo (Banner year plus juicy role as a real life figure probably equals nomination. How far he'll go will depend on the film, George C. Wolfe isn't a very good film director though, so I lean towards nominee only). 5. Keoghan (Pseudo-filler at the moment, based only on Fennell's previous success with the Academy, and Keoghan's general momentum as an actor currently.)
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Post by finniussnrub on Aug 15, 2023 2:27:19 GMT
DiCaprio missing a nomination would stun me, though to be fair, I am surprised he missed for Don't Look Up. Admittedly, that's a satirical comedy that was clearly divisive, but I still thought it would be easy for him to get nominated, especially as he hit all the precursors up to that point and he's DiCaprio. I didn't think he would be vulnerable to miss while in his heyday. Now with that said, I think him missing for a Scorsese film that's arguably a top-three contender with career-best reviews is a bit hard to swallow. I think he's probably going to replicate his Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood run: a secure spot but probably won't rise higher than third place. But I seriously can't see him missing unless we get some murderously good Best Actor contenders. Right now I have (in order) Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo, Keoghan and Murphy. I'm thinking The Holdovers might be getting over-estimated at this rate. He missed SAG (though the film got ensemble, which actually was more damning for him than if both he and the film had been snubbed), and he very easily could've been a meaningless jury save for BAFTA. So he wasn't coming in all that strongly for Don't Look Up.
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Post by futuretrunks on Aug 15, 2023 2:42:03 GMT
Meh, this is barely more objective than Clayton Davis.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 15, 2023 12:35:32 GMT
I've said this before - Paul Giamatti - while a fine actor is an insanely overrated one - or one that went from iunderrated to overrated really quick - it's the Robert Duvall Effect - where Duvall is compared to the best actors of the 70s when he's really - inarguably imo - a level below them
Giamatti also did the single worst thing I've ever seen an actor do on stage - and that's give up - refuse to act, refuse to hit his marks or his cues - opposite a cast that included John Goodman, Al Pacino, Steve Buscemi ffs - like a spoiled child. He's a bit of a prick.......
Now having said that I could certainly see him winning - he has 4 SAG Awards already ffs - 4 (?!?) ......but I'd doubt it would be at DiCaprio's expense for a nod......the real question is do both "villains" get in: DiCaprio / Keoghan.......Keoghan may be this years Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler - a performance everybody agrees is great but is just so unlikable that voters look elsewhere.......
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 15, 2023 13:01:42 GMT
I've said this before - Paul Giamatti - while a fine actor is an insanely overrated one - or one that went from iunderrated to overrated really quick - it's the Robert Duvall Effect - where Duvall is compared to the best actors of the 70s when he's really - inarguably imo - a level below them Giamatti also did the single worst thing I've ever seen an actor do on stage - and that's give up - refuse to act, refuse to hit his marks or his cues - opposite a cast that included John Goodman, Al Pacino, Sreve Buscemi ffs - like a spoiled child. He's a bit of a prick....... Now having said that I could certainly see him winning - he has 4 SAG Awards already ffs - 4 (?!?) ......but I'd doubt it would be at DiCaprio's expense for a nod..... .the real question is do both "villains" get in: DiCaprio / Keoghan.......Keoghan may be this years Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler - a performance everybody agrees is great but is just so unlikable that voters look elsewhere..........did we know this about Keoghan??
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Post by stephen on Aug 15, 2023 13:07:35 GMT
I've said this before - Paul Giamatti - while a fine actor is an insanely overrated one - or one that went from iunderrated to overrated really quick - it's the Robert Duvall Effect - where Duvall is compared to the best actors of the 70s when he's really - inarguably imo - a level below them Giamatti also did the single worst thing I've ever seen an actor do on stage - and that's give up - refuse to act, refuse to hit his marks or his cues - opposite a cast that included John Goodman, Al Pacino, Sreve Buscemi ffs - like a spoiled child. He's a bit of a prick....... Now having said that I could certainly see him winning - he has 4 SAG Awards already ffs - 4 (?!?) ......but I'd doubt it would be at DiCaprio's expense for a nod..... .the real question is do both "villains" get in: DiCaprio / Keoghan.......Keoghan may be this years Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler - a performance everybody agrees is great but is just so unlikable that voters look elsewhere..........did we know this about Keoghan?? We did not. We can assume an unlikability based on the Talented Mr. Ripley comparisons and Keoghan is really good at playing creeps, but nothing's really been confirmed yet on that front. Even so, Keoghan has nomination afterglow all over him, and all eyes are going to be on Saltburn for its pedigree, and I feel like Emerald Fennell wouldn't be casting Keoghan if it weren't a role that explored his unique skill sets.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 15, 2023 13:11:02 GMT
I've said this before - Paul Giamatti - while a fine actor is an insanely overrated one - or one that went from iunderrated to overrated really quick - it's the Robert Duvall Effect - where Duvall is compared to the best actors of the 70s when he's really - inarguably imo - a level below them Giamatti also did the single worst thing I've ever seen an actor do on stage - and that's give up - refuse to act, refuse to hit his marks or his cues - opposite a cast that included John Goodman, Al Pacino, Sreve Buscemi ffs - like a spoiled child. He's a bit of a prick....... Now having said that I could certainly see him winning - he has 4 SAG Awards already ffs - 4 (?!?) ......but I'd doubt it would be at DiCaprio's expense for a nod..... .the real question is do both "villains" get in: DiCaprio / Keoghan.......Keoghan may be this years Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler - a performance everybody agrees is great but is just so unlikable that voters look elsewhere..........did we know this about Keoghan?? That he's a villain you mean? I'm just going by him "apparently" having the Damon role if this is an update of Talented Mr. Ripley-type material.....just an assumption .......also Damon's best performance arguably........also not nominated......not saying Keoghan can't get in though - but if he does he and DiCap get in is my guess in August
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Post by Brother Fease on Aug 23, 2023 1:58:33 GMT
Early beliefs:
Bradley Cooper - Maestro Leonardo Dicaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon Paul Giamatti - Holdovers Colman Domingo Rustin Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 23, 2023 5:49:43 GMT
Early beliefs: Bradley Cooper - MaestroLeonardo Dicaprio - Killers of the Flower MoonPaul Giamatti - HoldoversRyan Gosling - BarbieCillian Murphy - OppenheimerIf Gosling goes supporting, I'll say Matt Damon for Air. Why do you think Gosling will go Lead??
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Post by Brother Fease on Aug 23, 2023 10:21:51 GMT
Early beliefs: Bradley Cooper - MaestroLeonardo Dicaprio - Killers of the Flower MoonPaul Giamatti - HoldoversRyan Gosling - BarbieCillian Murphy - OppenheimerIf Gosling goes supporting, I'll say Matt Damon for Air. Why do you think Gosling will go Lead?? Probably because he got top male billing for Barbie AND he gets major screen time.
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2023 11:41:27 GMT
Why do you think Gosling will go Lead?? Probably because he got top male billing for Barbie AND he gets major screen time. They're not going to run Gosling lead anywhere except the Globes. Even though he has significant screen time, he is still very much a supporting character in Barbie's story, and what's more, he is win-competitive in Supporting Actor and they know it. They're not going to run the risk of mishandling his campaign now. As for my predictions: Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinBarry Keoghan, SaltburnCillian Murphy, OppenheimerI have doubts about The Holdovers and I think people are sleeping on Saltburn.
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Post by Brother Fease on Aug 23, 2023 12:05:13 GMT
Probably because he got top male billing for Barbie AND he gets major screen time. They're not going to run Gosling lead anywhere except the Globes. Even though he has significant screen time, he is still very much a supporting character in Barbie's story, and what's more, he is win-competitive in Supporting Actor and they know it. They're not going to run the risk of mishandling his campaign now. As for my predictions: Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinBarry Keoghan, SaltburnCillian Murphy, OppenheimerI have doubts about The Holdovers and I think people are sleeping on Saltburn. Mark me down for Damon then. However, I suspect he is going to get Sharon Stone and Michelle Williams treatment.
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2023 12:26:48 GMT
They're not going to run Gosling lead anywhere except the Globes. Even though he has significant screen time, he is still very much a supporting character in Barbie's story, and what's more, he is win-competitive in Supporting Actor and they know it. They're not going to run the risk of mishandling his campaign now. As for my predictions: Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinBarry Keoghan, SaltburnCillian Murphy, OppenheimerI have doubts about The Holdovers and I think people are sleeping on Saltburn. Mark me down for Damon then. However, I suspect he is going to get Sharon Stone and Michelle Williams treatment. Damon for . . . Air? I mean, he was good but that movie just isn't going to have the legs for a resurgence at the end of the year when we've got a surfeit of contenders down the line. He'd need a lot of those late-breakers to fall on their faces and for Amazon to revive it. I feel like his ceiling might be a random SAG nomination but even that feels a bit out of reach at this stage. Stone and Williams chose to run lead. Gosling doesn't strike me as someone who cares about that, especially as the optics of demanding lead billing for a movie like Barbie wouldn't look too hot.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Aug 23, 2023 13:01:58 GMT
It is funny that I do think a case could be made for Gosling as lead since he does have a good bit of perspective in the movie and arguably the most defined arc of the movie. People have gone lead for way less.
Of course, I assume he'll go supporting as that's obviously the better option for him, but it is worth considering for personal lineups where to place him.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 23, 2023 13:59:31 GMT
Mark me down for Damon then. However, I suspect he is going to get Sharon Stone and Michelle Williams treatment. Damon for . . . Air? I mean, he was good but that movie just isn't going to have the legs for a resurgence at the end of the year when we've got a surfeit of contenders down the line. He'd need a lot of those late-breakers to fall on their faces and for Amazon to revive it. I feel like his ceiling might be a random SAG nomination but even that feels a bit out of reach at this stage. Stone and Williams chose to run lead. Gosling doesn't strike me as someone who cares about that, especially as the optics of demanding lead billing for a movie like Barbie wouldn't look too hot. Yeah...I'm failing to see the Damon logic atp.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 23, 2023 14:20:07 GMT
stephen mhynson27 - My guess is that Viola Davis is that film's only real shot at a nomination, as it isn't going to be a tech contender - especially if she makes them feel guilty about the Riseborough stuff on the campaign trail, which... I could definitely see her dealing that card from the bottom hand.
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2023 14:28:53 GMT
stephen mhynson27 - My guess is that Viola Davis is that film's only real shot at a nomination, as it isn't going to be a tech contender - especially if she makes them feel guilty about the Riseborough stuff on the campaign trail, which... I could definitely see her dealing that card from the bottom hand. Christ, I hope not. She's not bad by any means but it's a pretty boilerplate performance. I do think she's a solid bet for SAG because they nominate her for anything, and it would be a pretty lazy namecheck nomination if I'm being honest. Messina is the one who I would champion as deserving of a supporting nomination, though.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 23, 2023 14:34:22 GMT
stephen mhynson27 - My guess is that Viola Davis is that film's only real shot at a nomination, as it isn't going to be a tech contender - especially if she makes them feel guilty about the Riseborough stuff on the campaign trail, which... I could definitely see her dealing that card from the bottom hand. Christ, I hope not. She's not bad by any means but it's a pretty boilerplate performance. I do think she's a solid bet for SAG because they nominate her for anything, and it would be a pretty lazy namecheck nomination if I'm being honest. Messina is the one who I would champion as deserving of a supporting nomination, though. I guess we'll see... there'd be a void in the category if Lily Gladstone opts to go Leading, and if there's a dearth of contenders due to the strikes...
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2023 14:37:23 GMT
Christ, I hope not. She's not bad by any means but it's a pretty boilerplate performance. I do think she's a solid bet for SAG because they nominate her for anything, and it would be a pretty lazy namecheck nomination if I'm being honest. Messina is the one who I would champion as deserving of a supporting nomination, though. I guess we'll see... there'd be a void in the category if Lily Gladstone opts to go Leading, and if there's a dearth of contenders due to the strikes... It's definitely possible as she is a well-liked Oscar winner and they love their vets, especially in the supporting categories, and the strikes could definitely throw a wrench into things.
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Post by Brother Fease on Aug 23, 2023 14:41:42 GMT
Mark me down for Damon then. However, I suspect he is going to get Sharon Stone and Michelle Williams treatment. Damon for . . . Air? I mean, he was good but that movie just isn't going to have the legs for a resurgence at the end of the year when we've got a surfeit of contenders down the line. He'd need a lot of those late-breakers to fall on their faces and for Amazon to revive it. I feel like his ceiling might be a random SAG nomination but even that feels a bit out of reach at this stage. Stone and Williams chose to run lead. Gosling doesn't strike me as someone who cares about that, especially as the optics of demanding lead billing for a movie like Barbie wouldn't look too hot. Yes. Air is going to make my annual pound the table list. Saw it a couple of months ago and quite frankly, I can’t see why it would be ignored. Arguably Affleck’s best work. Damon is pretty darn good and has the big speeches and emotional moments. To me, he and Messina were the MVPs, not Viola Davis. Also film editing for Air seems likely. At this point, you might as well throw in some wishful thinking picks, along with the obvious DiCaprio and Murphy nods.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Aug 23, 2023 14:52:18 GMT
Damon for . . . Air? I mean, he was good but that movie just isn't going to have the legs for a resurgence at the end of the year when we've got a surfeit of contenders down the line. He'd need a lot of those late-breakers to fall on their faces and for Amazon to revive it. I feel like his ceiling might be a random SAG nomination but even that feels a bit out of reach at this stage. Stone and Williams chose to run lead. Gosling doesn't strike me as someone who cares about that, especially as the optics of demanding lead billing for a movie like Barbie wouldn't look too hot. Yes. Air is going to make my annual pound the table list. Saw it a couple of months ago and quite frankly, I can’t see why it would be ignored. Arguably Affleck’s best work. Damon is pretty darn good and has the big speeches and emotional moments. To me, he and Messina were the MVPs, not Viola Davis. Also film editing for Air seems likely. At this point, you might as well throw in some wishful thinking picks, along with the obvious DiCaprio and Murphy nods. As someone who really liked this movie, I don’t think there’s a single reasonable argument that it’s arguably Affleck’s best work.
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SZilla
Badass
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Post by SZilla on Aug 23, 2023 16:15:04 GMT
Cooper DiCaprio Domingo Giamatti Murphy
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