dazed
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Post by dazed on Oct 27, 2023 20:42:24 GMT
cooper murphy* dicaprio scott wright
no giamatti (he’s 6th for me) or domingo is my hot take
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 27, 2023 22:04:33 GMT
My roommate brought up a good point. Can Cooper campaign in his capacity of a director and writer? Marty has and I’m sure he’s a SAG member. He has had plenty of speaking lines in movies. That could be good for Cooper.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2023 22:40:38 GMT
My roommate brought up a good point. Can Cooper campaign in his capacity of a director and writer? Marty has and I’m sure he’s a SAG member. He has had plenty of speaking lines in movies. That could be good for Cooper. Cooper is able to promote the film as a writer/director, but as he is primarily an actor, he is likely not going to do much promotion in solidarity with SAG-AFTRA. Scorsese is primarily a director and he's not going to be seen as scabbing just for promoting his movie. Besides, I honestly don't think the strike is going to make that much of a difference. Lately, we've seen performances win with very minimal campaigning from the actors themselves. Rylance won without campaigning. Colman won without (much) campaigning. McDormand won twice without campaigning (and at times actively insinuating voters pick someone else). Hopkins won without campaigning. Even if you don't get actors' roundtables and press junkets, their names and films are still in the ether as they always are.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2023 1:09:18 GMT
- Cooper - Murphy - DiCaprio - Giamatti - Wright
Domingo alt.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 12, 2023 2:28:31 GMT
Cooper DiCaprio Giamatti Murphy Scott
I see Wright snubbed. Andrew Scott has late surge potential imo and I see a path for him similar to Paul Mescal last year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2023 2:37:17 GMT
Cooper Murphy Giamatti Wright DiCaprio
Scott Domingo
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 12, 2023 13:50:12 GMT
Cooper Murphy Giamatti DiCaprio Scott
If Wright makes SAG, then I might change my mind. Scott has a Globe nomination and would probably be nominated at BAFTA with the old system.
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Nikan
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Post by Nikan on Jan 17, 2024 10:29:31 GMT
So who's gonna win you think? I think it's safe to say it's between these two...
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 17, 2024 11:00:42 GMT
I honestly don't have a clue, super close and exciting race.
Gun to my head, I guess I'll say Cillian for now.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 17, 2024 11:14:04 GMT
Typically in the two horse race where one is playing a real famous person versus a fictional one, the former wins. Fraser v. Butler was an exception, also Butler was an extreme in terms of a being a newcomer and Fraser was in a comically baity role.
The last time though where, in a probable two horse race, where the fictional character beat the real person (in the likely best picture winner) in lead actor was...Denzel Washington over Russell Crowe (which I don't think Murphy is throwing a phone at anyone) and before that Tom Hanks over Liam Neeson. So it can happen, and Giamatti certainly has the actorly cloat, however there might be just a little more in Murphy's corner, though not by much.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 17, 2024 11:22:12 GMT
So who's gonna win you think? I think it's safe to say it's between these two... If Giamatti wins SAG he wins. SAG is after BAFTA this year.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 17, 2024 14:24:11 GMT
Leaning Murphy but agree that the SAG winner will be my pick.
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2024 14:31:30 GMT
I think Giamatti takes SAG and there's not a huge incentive to give Oppenheimer Best Actor when it's already taking Director and Supporting Actor as part of its awards haul.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 17, 2024 14:34:49 GMT
I think Giamatti takes SAG and there's not a huge incentive to give Oppenheimer Best Actor when it's already taking Director and Supporting Actor as part of its awards haul. Unless they just pull a EEAAO again, and go bananas for it.
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2024 14:42:28 GMT
I think Giamatti takes SAG and there's not a huge incentive to give Oppenheimer Best Actor when it's already taking Director and Supporting Actor as part of its awards haul. Unless they just pull a EEAAO again, and go bananas for it. They could do that but we would likely see that at SAG.
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rhodoraonline
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Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 17, 2024 19:45:05 GMT
I'll be happier with Giamatti. Cillian can try again some other time
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 18, 2024 7:06:47 GMT
Murphy will win. Period, end of.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2024 14:59:36 GMT
Murphy will win. Period, end of. Glad that’s settled
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2024 15:00:44 GMT
So seeems pretty set now.
Murphy Giamatti Cooper Wright Domingo
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2024 15:19:12 GMT
Eh, I still think Leo could easily nab that 5th spot.
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Jan 18, 2024 15:25:17 GMT
I think Domingo is going to be that "Hits all precursors but misses" guy.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 19, 2024 10:23:51 GMT
My gut tells me that Murphy still takes it in the end. It just seems weird to imagine Oppenheimer going home with Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, plus a bunch of techs but leaving behind the guy who is the face of the movie and carries the whole thing on his back.
I know there are examples throughout Oscar history where movies win a big haul and the lead actor is left out (Schindler’s List, Lawrence of Arabia, The English Patient, etc.), but pretty much all of those are explainable cases where the competition winning makes sense in retrospect imo. A lot of what won in those years were uber-baity roles, and that isn’t really how I’d describe Giamatti. As much as I love him in The Holdovers, he’s playing a character very much in his comfort zone ultimately up against a real-life figure in a historical drama. I would love to see either of them win, but a clean sweep for Oppenheimer just seems more likely to me.
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Jan 21, 2024 22:29:00 GMT
It looks like Paul Giamatti has a great shot, but I'm rooting heavy for Cillian Murphy.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 22, 2024 16:18:54 GMT
My gut tells me that Murphy still takes it in the end. It just seems weird to imagine Oppenheimer going home with Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, plus a bunch of techs but leaving behind the guy who is the face of the movie and carries the whole thing on his back. I know there are examples throughout Oscar history where movies win a big haul and the lead actor is left out (Schindler’s List, Lawrence of Arabia, The English Patient, etc.), but pretty much all of those are explainable cases where the competition winning makes sense in retrospect imo. A lot of what won in those years were uber-baity roles, and that isn’t really how I’d describe Giamatti. As much as I love him in The Holdovers, he’s playing a character very much in his comfort zone ultimately up against a real-life figure in a historical drama. I would love to see either of them win, but a clean sweep for Oppenheimer just seems more likely to me. Clean Sweeps rarely happen anymore. EEAAO was a rare exception. These days AMPAS is more about recognizing multiple films. Oppenheimer is most vulnerable with Actor and Screenplay. Giamatti does have more of the veteran status.
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Post by franklin on Jan 22, 2024 22:02:10 GMT
Eh, I still think Leo could easily nab that 5th spot. Me too, i still believe it. SAG is becoming more and more their own bubble and BAFTA screwed up with their new voting system.
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