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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 1, 2023 11:30:37 GMT
I am officially on the Domingo train.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 1, 2023 11:38:37 GMT
I just said this a couple days ago and I said it about Giamatti earlier as well (and hs 4 SAG awards, wtf) - this looks like the race and all of the villains will be on the outside of a win I reckon - unless Oppy sweeps up Murphy in its haul - Keoghan and DiCap are not threats to win and Cooper may be left out entirely at the expense of his leading lady.......getting serious now:
Aug 30, 2023 at 6:47pm Post by pacinoyes on Aug 30, 2023 at 6:47pm
Could easily see Domingo winning - not just Black (+1) and gay (+2) but a historical marginal figure we are "learning" abuut......people always love that stuff........and Obama produced (-100, j/k) in a potential field of all white nominees but the 3 villians if they all get in could cancel each ther out ......Murphy could be swept to a win by his film......I mean.....but Domingo has no drawbacks to his win.......unless the film is generic and is it as generic as The Whale and Elvis were in 2022?
I tend to doubt that......Keoghan is not winning for a villain, DiCap isn't unless KotFM is a bigger deal than I think it is (?), Cooper has surrendered his film to the female lead apparently......if this is just "good" it carries a lot of checkbox weight
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 1, 2023 12:08:41 GMT
Cooper DiCaprio Domingo Giamatti Murphy Keoghan Yeah, I'm feeling this even more now.
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Post by Archie on Sept 1, 2023 12:39:29 GMT
Hate to say it, but I think Keoghan is done for.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 1, 2023 17:12:50 GMT
Cooper DiCaprio Domingo Giamatti Murphy Keoghan Yeah, I'm feeling this even more now. Curses we agree. Lol. Happy September to you!
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 2, 2023 18:03:14 GMT
Cooper DiCaprio Domingo Giamatti Murphy
Is going to be a tough top 5 to crack.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 2, 2023 23:41:17 GMT
Yep, with Keoghan and Scott next in line.
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Post by speeders on Sept 3, 2023 1:53:27 GMT
I'm sticking with my same old predictions from earlier this summer.
Bradley Cooper, Maestro Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alt. Barry Keoughan, Saltburn
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Post by JangoB on Sept 3, 2023 1:56:59 GMT
You know folks, I think it's gonna be:
- Cooper - Giamatti - Murphy - DiCaprio - Domingo
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 3, 2023 8:16:08 GMT
Still feeling a Cooper win, even with the film apparently being more of a two-hander than I expected. It seems to me like there are just as many reviews praising Cooper as Mulligan... though the one thing giving me pause is the fact that we don’t often get a Best Actor winner where he has to share so much of the spotlight with his costar (at least recently). The closest, most recent comparison I can think of is The Theory of Everything – another biopic primarily about the couple’s relationship where both Redmayne and Jones were nominated but of course only Redmayne won. I could see a similar situation here (don't really see Mulligan winning for this), especially with Maestro’s reviews looking quite strong overall, and of course Cooper’s got the “transformational” role, which obviously the Academy is a sucker for (despite the nose controversy, which I don’t think will be much of a factor ultimately).
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Post by speeders on Sept 3, 2023 12:04:02 GMT
... though the one thing giving me pause is the fact that we don’t often get a Best Actor winner where he has to share so much of the spotlight with his costar (at least recently). And/or directed himself.
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Post by stephen on Sept 3, 2023 12:04:32 GMT
... though the one thing giving me pause is the fact that we don’t often get a Best Actor winner where he has to share so much of the spotlight with his costar (at least recently). And/or directed himself. It's only happened once.
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Post by speeders on Sept 3, 2023 12:08:42 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 3, 2023 12:14:25 GMT
Yeah, I think the biggest thing that could harm Cooper is Mulligan becoming the actress frontrunner tbh.
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Post by stephen on Sept 3, 2023 12:21:17 GMT
Actually, scratch that -- twice. Olivier and Benigni. I always forget Benigni.
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Post by speeders on Sept 3, 2023 12:22:26 GMT
Actually, scratch that -- twice. Olivier and Benigni. I always forget Benigni. So did I Poor Benigni
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 4, 2023 19:23:39 GMT
I would be so happy if Giamatti won. 2004 was my second year following the Oscars closely and his snub for Sideways was my first big disappointment. That one still stings a bit because of the history for me.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 4, 2023 23:42:15 GMT
Not only would I be very surprised if Giamatti won, I think he's the most vulnerable out of the 'expected 5'.
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Post by speeders on Sept 5, 2023 0:39:47 GMT
Not only would I be very surprised if Giamatti won, I think he's the most vulnerable out of the 'expected 5'. I think it's a flop flip between him and Keoghan at the moment for that final spot (and potentially some other late contender).
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2023 0:57:39 GMT
Not only would I be very surprised if Giamatti won, I think he's the most vulnerable out of the 'expected 5'. I think it's a flop flip between him and Keoghan at the moment for that final spot (and potentially some other late contender). I think Scott is 6th tbh.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 5, 2023 4:02:27 GMT
Not only would I be very surprised if Giamatti won, I think he's the most vulnerable out of the 'expected 5'. I would be surprised also but I think he’s 4th. Domingo’s film not being in contention makes me concerned for him.
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Post by dazed on Sept 10, 2023 15:14:00 GMT
looks like wright has now entered the race
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 11, 2023 14:52:40 GMT
The current Top 5 feels quite solid tbh.
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 11, 2023 20:07:45 GMT
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 15, 2023 17:02:09 GMT
Leo, Killers of the Flower Moon Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario Teo Yoo, Past Lives Bradley Cooper, Maestro Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
I'd love to put Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction in the five - he's getting standout praise (unlike when Maestro premiered, still haven't heard anyone single out Cooper as "great") but.... MGM really can't get an actor a nom (Licorice Pizza, Gucci, Till, etc) meanwhile clearly w/e A24 is doing is working (hence two spots)..... and then the actors branch love to nom Cooper.... and I guess Cillian will be swept up in the nom-haul of Oppenheimer? Rustin, Ferrari, Napoleon... biopic fatigue... they may even sour Cooper or Cillian and get Giamatti his nom (for some reason, sure, Holdovers looks good but I don't see passion for it). I do think Cage is in a great position if A24 works their magic - they somehow turned an unwatchable movie (Whale) and a Marvel Hallmark thing (EE) into must-award movies. Actors are gonna love the watercooler celebrity-angle of Dream Scenario and Pig put him in their good graces.
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