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Post by stephen on Sept 15, 2023 17:06:59 GMT
Leo, Killers of the Flower Moon Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario Teo Yoo, Past Lives Bradley Cooper, Maestro Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer I'd love to put Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction in the five - he's getting standout praise (unlike when Maestro premiered, still haven't heard anyone single out Cooper as "great") but.... MGM really can't get an actor a nom (Licorice Pizza, Gucci, Till, etc) meanwhile clearly w/e A24 is doing is working (hence two spots)..... and then the actors branch love to nom Cooper.... and I guess Cillian will be swept up in the nom-haul of Oppenheimer? Rustin, Ferrari, Napoleon... biopic fatigue... they may even sour Cooper or Cillian and get Giamatti his nom (for some reason, sure, Holdovers looks good but I don't see passion for it). I do think Cage is in a great position if A24 works their magic - they somehow turned an unwatchable movie (Whale) and a Marvel Hallmark thing (EE) into must-award movies. Actors are gonna love the watercooler celebrity-angle of Dream Scenario and Pig put him in their good graces. I would love nothing more than Nicolas Cage to get back into the game, but I feel like A24 just isn’t going to put the effort in if they don’t see a win at the end of the tunnel. This seems to be their M.O. They only really try when they think a win is in the offing, as last year proved. And I just don't see a way Cage gets back into Oscar's good graces until he's in a huge headliner awards contender outside of him. He's been giving career-level work the last few years and been paid dust, but they've also been far more eclectic fare than what the Oscars go for and with smaller studios to boot. He needs to affix himself to something like a PTA film, and with a studio willing to put the effort in.
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 15, 2023 17:23:57 GMT
I would love nothing more than Nicolas Cage to get back into the game, but I feel like A24 just isn’t going to put the effort in if they don’t see a win at the end of the tunnel. This seems to be their M.O. They only really try when they think a win is in the offing, as last year proved. And I just don't see a way Cage gets back into Oscar's good graces until he's in a huge headliner awards contender outside of him. He's been giving career-level work the last few years and been paid dust, but they've also been far more eclectic fare than what the Oscars go for and with smaller studios to boot. He needs to affix himself to something like a PTA film, and with a studio willing to put the effort in. Certainly true....but also I think A24 is in the enviable position of having their actors even able to campaign (at this point... the strikes my resolve soon?) ....and Dream Scenario played better than expected at TIFF especially the Cage perf. Who's their big ticket this year? Greta Lee should be a lock but a win is a stretch... Emma Stone seems like she's gonna tsunami Lead Actress this year in an undeniable way. I don't see a Lead Actor frontrunner (and I'm not saying Cage is gonna Win (don't threaten me with a good time!) I'm saying I want A24 to swell chest and think he can).
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Post by stephen on Sept 15, 2023 17:33:28 GMT
I would love nothing more than Nicolas Cage to get back into the game, but I feel like A24 just isn’t going to put the effort in if they don’t see a win at the end of the tunnel. This seems to be their M.O. They only really try when they think a win is in the offing, as last year proved. And I just don't see a way Cage gets back into Oscar's good graces until he's in a huge headliner awards contender outside of him. He's been giving career-level work the last few years and been paid dust, but they've also been far more eclectic fare than what the Oscars go for and with smaller studios to boot. He needs to affix himself to something like a PTA film, and with a studio willing to put the effort in. Certainly true....but also I think A24 is in the enviable position of having their actors even able to campaign (at this point... the strikes my resolve soon?) ....and Dream Scenario played better than expected at TIFF especially the Cage perf. Who's their big ticket this year? Greta Lee should be a lock but a win is a stretch... Emma Stone seems like she's gonna tsunami Lead Actress this year in an undeniable way. I don't see a Lead Actor frontrunner (and I'm not saying Cage is gonna Win (don't threaten me with a good time!) I'm saying I want A24 to swell chest and think he can). I think A24's probably going to sit the year out to be honest. Past Lives looks to be an early critical favourite but I feel its actual win equity is extremely low. I feel it's a contender for Picture and Screenplay (and I feel like Barbie running in Original probably kiboshes any shot it has at the win, and even if Barbie swaps at the last second like I think it will, there's still The Holdovers to deal with). Greta Lee would be deserving of a nomination but I think louder, showier performances from bigger names are going to overshadow her. A24 also has Cailee Spaeny for Priscilla who has the Volpi Cup and is playing a much baitier role, but I've spoken elsewhere about my doubts on her.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 15, 2023 23:42:22 GMT
And so the Mattsby hopedicting begins. Never change
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 24, 2023 12:57:28 GMT
We can officially add Jeffrey Wright to the mix. The film got a gigantic boost by winning the People's Choice Award, and I hear he's outstanding in the role.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 24, 2023 19:26:34 GMT
We can officially add Jeffrey Wright to the mix. The film got a gigantic boost by winning the People's Choice Award, and I hear he's outstanding in the role. It quite possibly could be a race between Wright and Giamatti if Wright can get in ........for two mostly comic performances too (!)..........not saying that will be what happens - Domingo is a threat - and Murphy, DiCap seem to be taking up 2 spots and Cooper possibly - that's already 5 without Wright ffs...........but .......if he gets in he could shake up the race...........I could make a case that Wright is the single most underrated American actor of the last 20 years or so across all 3 mediums.......... and if Wright actually wins he would also become the first African American male actor to ever win the Triple Crown ........ .......no American male has even joined that club in 20 years ..........since Pacino .......and only 2 in 35 years (Jason Robards before that) Hard to bet against Giamatti I think though on paper for a win .........or Murphy getting swept up in an Oppy tsunami........but a lot of people would be pulling for Wright...........like..........um...........me.........
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2023 23:16:27 GMT
Ehhhhh, even though I'm currently predicting him, I can see Giamatti missing for someone with more passion like Wright or Scott. Definitely don't think he's a serious threat for the win.
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Post by stephen on Sept 24, 2023 23:18:45 GMT
So I actually wonder if we might be overestimating Domingo here. DiCaprio, Cooper, Giamatti and Murphy all have strong films that are very likely Picture players, and Wright's film won TIFF. Rustin was not very well-received at TIFF outside of Domingo's performance, and even though he is playing arguably the baitiest role (give or take Cooper), I wonder if the weakness of his film might work against him, especially as Netflix is already going to be pushing Cooper. Could be that Domingo misses in favour of his supporting turn in The Color Purple, or he just picks up momentum next year for Sing Sing.
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 25, 2023 10:01:10 GMT
So I actually wonder if we might be overestimating Domingo here. DiCaprio, Cooper, Giamatti and Murphy all have strong films that are very likely Picture players, and Wright's film won TIFF. Rustin was not very well-received at TIFF outside of Domingo's performance, and even though he is playing arguably the baitiest role (give or take Cooper), I wonder if the weakness of his film might work against him, especially as Netflix is already going to be pushing Cooper. Could be that Domingo misses in favour of his supporting turn in The Color Purple, or he just picks up momentum next year for Sing Sing. A valid point. And supporting that, usually to get in solo in recent years the actor has to be pretty well established (Dafoe, Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Cranston) or the category has to be thin in terms of Academy contenders (Mescal), which the latter already seems to be untrue. In his corner though, Netflix can get two contenders in (Cumberbatch/Garfield, Oldman/Boseman, Pryce/Driver), he has the "importance" factor, the real life person, and the film didn't get bad reviews 68 on Metacritic isn't great, but it isn't terrible relatively speaking. There also might be a groundswell to get in more African American contenders by some voters after the backlash last year (though the category could be already theoretically "covered" by Wright). I'd say if Color Purple flops critically, it actually helps him for this film. BUT, he's one that if he misses SAG, he's in all likelihood done, unlike the others who could back on film momentum, he will not be able to.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 25, 2023 11:06:24 GMT
There's 2 "other" factors that give Domingo a plus to get a nod in the 4th or 5th spot - not only is he black, gay on the right side of history (even if the movie is shaky) it's the freakin' Woke trifecta (unironic use of the term btw) - he's likable as a film character (or memorable anyway) and you can't discuss his movie without discussing his performance......that doesn't apply to any of the most often mentioned big guns except Giamatti - who is still imo the clear frontrunner ......with Murphy in that slingshot position in an Oppy tsunami ....
Now that doesn't always apply .........but give voters another option they'll usually default to a safe (boring) acting pick ....... Wright and Cooper could nudge him out though ......he's 4th.......... at best
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 26, 2023 13:16:39 GMT
I don't see Giamatti as the winner tbh. I can see him win the Comedy Globe but SAG and/or BAFTA??
This is Cooper's year. Trifecta will go to Murphy, Scott, Wright or the actor from Wenders' movie.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2023 15:31:44 GMT
I don't see Giamatti as the winner tbh. I can see him win the Comedy Globe but SAG and/or BAFTA?? This is Cooper's year. Trifecta will go to Murphy, Scott, Wright or the actor from Wenders' movie. Well if he does win SAG it will be his 5th SAG .........one of the more mindboggling weird awards stats atm (2 for film, 2 for TV) - they love him.......probably has to do with his sex appeal........
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 17, 2023 6:29:27 GMT
Ok, I just watched Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng from about ~ 2 weeks ago talking about why Cooper is winning BA - and that was the most dispiriting, soul-crushing, fnck the movies - I'm going to shoot lots of dope instead - pieces of annoying shit I've heard in a long time............he is totally winning based on what I just listened to......that's even with Rosen saying Cooper reminded him of Pacino (that's every actor btw Chris ) but then shooting himself in the fncking face by saying Cooper was "robbed" for ASIB in Actor (was he though?) ............ and if Cooper loses here - he can basically "kiss goodbye to winning a BA ever"......... yet somehow both annoying af "experts" agree that he's not actually overdue in Acting ......alrighty then....... I'm not providing a link because I want you to live and have a happy and full life but it's on Youtube for masochists at the start.......as for me I'm about this close from just flinging myself through a glass window to stop the ringing in my ears from those 2 fnckwads .... Side note: Instead of banning politics - we should ban Oscar predictons........yeah I know it's the point of this board........ but still ......
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 17, 2023 7:09:54 GMT
he is totally winning based on what I just listened to...... What was it specifically that convinced you?
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2023 7:26:36 GMT
Why listen to Christopher Rosen when I’ve been banging that drum for a month, pacinoyes! You don’t want to listen to me! I’m disappointed!
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 17, 2023 7:50:37 GMT
Why listen to Christopher Rosen when I’ve been banging that drum for a month, pacinoyes ! You don’t want to listen to me! I’m disappointed! You know it isn't that buddy - - but the way Rosen and Eng sort of talk around each other and then kind of coalesce / enable each other into this general dispassionate POV that they seem to only actually care about somewhere between what's for lunch and their latest purchase from Amazon all while laughing and smiling (wtf!) happily is deeply troubling - and really deflating to watch ................when we make predictions it just seems fun. goofy and good-naturedly hostile .........but when they do it - here at least - it seems.........vaguely........... sinister ..........I was getting this vibe from Rosen:
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2023 8:18:17 GMT
Why listen to Christopher Rosen when I’ve been banging that drum for a month, pacinoyes ! You don’t want to listen to me! I’m disappointed! You know it isn't that buddy - - but the way Rosen and Eng sort of talk around each other and then kind of coalesce / enable each other into this general dispassionate POV that they seem to only actually care about somewhere between what's for lunch and their latest purchase from Amazon all while laughing and smiling (wtf!) happily is deeply troubling - and really deflating to watch ................when we make predictions it just seems fun. goofy and good-naturedly hostile .........but when they do it - here at least - it seems.........vaguely........... sinister ..........I was getting this vibe from Rosen: Lol I was joking! Gold Derby’s pundits are like that in general, they exist to predict awards while at the same time they treat it as a strange hobby. Rosen and Joyce’s videos are basically two friends making an Oscar pool basically. It’s probably why Joyce is so good at it, she knows how it works and she doesn’t seem to have favorites so it’s easy for her to block any bias.
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 17, 2023 11:02:24 GMT
My current list:
1. Cooper 2. Dicaprio 3. Murphy 4. Wright 5. Giamatti Spoilers: Domingo, Damon!, Scott, and Phoenix.
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Post by stephen on Oct 17, 2023 13:40:29 GMT
For curiosity's sake, what are we thinking are our Globe and BAFTA nominees?
Drama Globe: Bradley Cooper, Maestro Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Colman Domingo, Rustin Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Comedy Globe: Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario Paul Dano, Dumb Money Jamie Foxx, The Burial Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
BAFTA: Bradley Cooper, Maestro Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 17, 2023 14:39:36 GMT
For curiosity's sake, what are we thinking are our Globe and BAFTA nominees? Drama Globe:Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinCillian Murphy, OppenheimerJoaquin Phoenix, NapoleonAndrew Scott, All of Us StrangersComedy Globe:Nicolas Cage, Dream ScenarioPaul Dano, Dumb MoneyJamie Foxx, The BurialPaul Giamatti, The HoldoversBarry Keoghan, SaltburnJeffrey Wright, American FictionBAFTA:Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonBarry Keoghan, SaltburnCillian Murphy, OppenheimerAndrew Scott, All of Us StrangersKoji Yakusho, Perfect Days Replace Barry with Jeffrey and we agree 100%. Big props for you including Cage and Koji to the mix.
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Post by stephen on Oct 17, 2023 14:42:14 GMT
For curiosity's sake, what are we thinking are our Globe and BAFTA nominees? Drama Globe:Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinCillian Murphy, OppenheimerJoaquin Phoenix, NapoleonAndrew Scott, All of Us StrangersComedy Globe:Nicolas Cage, Dream ScenarioPaul Dano, Dumb MoneyJamie Foxx, The BurialPaul Giamatti, The HoldoversBarry Keoghan, SaltburnJeffrey Wright, American FictionBAFTA:Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonBarry Keoghan, SaltburnCillian Murphy, OppenheimerAndrew Scott, All of Us StrangersKoji Yakusho, Perfect Days Replace Barry with Jeffrey and we agree 100%. Big props for you including Cage and Koji to the mix. BAFTA is very, very strange when it comes to films about the black American experience, so it's why I don't expect Wright to get in there unless he's a jury save. They like Keoghan and I feel like they'll be a lot more receptive to Saltburn in general. Cage I put in really for lack of any reasonable alternatives (although my fingers are crossed for a surprise nomination for him), and Yakusho definitely feels like something BAFTA would respond to.
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DanQuixote
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Post by DanQuixote on Oct 17, 2023 15:37:36 GMT
For curiosity's sake, what are we thinking are our Globe and BAFTA nominees? Drama Globe:Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinCillian Murphy, OppenheimerJoaquin Phoenix, NapoleonAndrew Scott, All of Us StrangersComedy Globe:Nicolas Cage, Dream ScenarioPaul Dano, Dumb MoneyJamie Foxx, The BurialPaul Giamatti, The HoldoversBarry Keoghan, SaltburnJeffrey Wright, American FictionBAFTA:Bradley Cooper, MaestroLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonBarry Keoghan, SaltburnCillian Murphy, OppenheimerAndrew Scott, All of Us StrangersKoji Yakusho, Perfect Days Drama GlobeBradley Cooper, Maestro Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Colman Domingo, Rustin Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers Teo Yoo, Past Lives Alt. Phoenix Comedy GlobeGael García Bernal, Cassandro Timothée Chalamet, Wonka Matt Damon, Air Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Alt. Cage BAFTALeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon * Colman Domingo, Rustin Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer * Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers * Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Teo Yoo, Past Lives Alt. Cooper Regarding my Globe predictions, I think the overhaul of the membership means we be getting some more inspired nominations like Teo Yoo. Regarding my BAFTA predictions, I’ve placed an asterisk after the actors I think will be the top three that get automatically nominated.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 20, 2023 22:43:08 GMT
If....and it's a big If, what Jeff Snieder says holds true and Jonathan Majors does get exonerated/or his case dimissed at his next hearing....can he surge back into the race with Magazine Dreams which is still scheduled for a December release?
Between Magazine Dreams, Ant-Man : Quantumania, Creed 3 and the praise he's getting this week for his work in Loki Season 2, he easily should have staked his claim to being the actor/star of the year. Yet his assault charge put a cloud over all of that. If he's cleared, does the industry fall back behind him in a show of support for having his stellar year derailed with Magazine Dreams, which was touted as a likely Oscar nod for him before his charges? Or will he still struggle to regain his momentum?
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Oct 21, 2023 0:50:23 GMT
If....and it's a big If, what Jeff Snieder says holds true and Jonathan Majors does get exonerated/or his case dimissed at his next hearing....can he surge back into the race with Magazine Dreams which is still scheduled for a December release? Between Magazine Dreams, Ant-Man : Quantumania, Creed 3 and the praise he's getting this week for his work in Loki Season 2, he easily should have staked his claim to being the actor/star of the year. Yet his assault charge put a cloud over all of that. If he's cleared, does the industry fall back behind him in a show of support for having his stellar year derailed with Magazine Dreams, which was touted as a likely Oscar nod for him before his charges? Or will he still struggle to regain his momentum? Considering the assault charge brought up several other reports of abuse, aggressive behavior, and unprofessional conduct on sets, I imagine there won't be an immediate desire to embrace him. Any chance he had for this year is almost certainly dead and even without the allegations it would've been a bit of an uphill climb since the reviews for the movie are good but not spectacular and a lot of the competition this year are in presumed BP frontrunners.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 21, 2023 1:22:11 GMT
If....and it's a big If, what Jeff Snieder says holds true and Jonathan Majors does get exonerated/or his case dimissed at his next hearing....can he surge back into the race with Magazine Dreams which is still scheduled for a December release? Between Magazine Dreams, Ant-Man : Quantumania, Creed 3 and the praise he's getting this week for his work in Loki Season 2, he easily should have staked his claim to being the actor/star of the year. Yet his assault charge put a cloud over all of that. If he's cleared, does the industry fall back behind him in a show of support for having his stellar year derailed with Magazine Dreams, which was touted as a likely Oscar nod for him before his charges? Or will he still struggle to regain his momentum? Considering the assault charge brought up several other reports of abuse, aggressive behavior, and unprofessional conduct on sets, I imagine there won't be an immediate desire to embrace him. Any chance he had for this year is almost certainly dead and even without the allegations it would've been a bit of an uphill climb since the reviews for the movie are good but not spectacular and a lot of the competition this year are in presumed BP frontrunners. I don't think that Rolling Stone piece will carry any weight at all if his criminal charges are dismissed. They supposedly interviewed 40 people about his alleged bad behaviour since college, and couldn't even get 1 of them to go on the record (by naming themselves). That says more about the shakiness of the investigative journalism than Majors himself. It made it feel more like a hit piece than a smoking gun. You could write unsubstantiated, hearsay heavy articles like that about 90% of people in Hollywood, most of them whom would have interacted with people over their careers or since college that found them rude, abrasive, unpleasant to be around etc. Shit, you could write an article like that about Emma Roberts, except you'd actually be able to find several people willing to go on record and say she's a rude, aggressive b*tch. Jonathan Majors is not so all-powerful a celebrity that you can't find one person willing to go on the record about his "terrible" behavior in a serious investigative piece, if it's as bad as claimed. If he gets off, and most importantly if Disney/MCU stick by him (which by all accounts they will. So they probably know his odds for acquittal are high), he may still have a hard time getting back to where he was as some mud always sticks even if you are found innocent, but there will undoubtedly be an outpouring of sympathy for him, since more recent evidence suggests his ex-girlfriend was not only lying, but coached by police officers on the scene to accuse him. But I don't think a Rolling Stone article with 40 people willing to badmouth him, but none of them willing to go on record is going to stick the landing. Just my opinion anyway.
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