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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 14, 2024 11:07:09 GMT
I think Jolie’s getting nominated, but I really don’t see her winning.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 14, 2024 13:57:17 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - I'm not suggesting that Maria and The Outrun are stronger overall contenders than Anora - merely that Jolie and Ronan are stronger as individual contenders for Best Actress. Let me be clear that I'm talking about nomination probability only at this point... How can we predict who's winning before NBR has even announced? Again... The only thing we're gauging our predictions on right now is Internet hype. Edit: Let me also say that in order for Madison and Kidman to be the frontrunners for nominations for these films, the Academy's taste would have to fundamentally change. Yes, they've gotten edgier since the membership overhaul, but the bevy of nominations for things like Being the Ricardos, Maestro, and Nyad (just to name three) more than prove that they haven't changed that much. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 14, 2024 15:19:11 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - I'm not suggesting that Maria and The Outrun are stronger overall contenders than Anora - merely that Jolie and Ronan are stronger as individual contenders for Best Actress. Let me be clear that I'm talking about nomination probability only at this point... How can we predict who's winning before NBR has even announced? Again... The only thing we're gauging our predictions on right now is Internet hype. Edit: Let me also say that in order for Madison and Kidman to be the frontrunners for nominations for these films, the Academy's taste would have to fundamentally change. Yes, they've gotten edgier since the membership overhaul, but the bevy of nominations for things like Being the Ricardos, Maestro, and Nyad (just to name three) more than prove that they haven't changed that much. I’m predicting wins. Yes it’s early but it’s fun and it’s not that serious. I also don’t agree that there would have be to some huge fundamental change. The academy has been rewarding actresses for playing sex workers for decades. Poor Things was literally last year. It’s a long standing joke that getting nude in a role helps you win an Oscar. They performed a song about it on their broadcast… |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 15, 2024 0:16:08 GMT
sterlingarcher86 - My hesitation at calling Madison the frontrunner isn't because she's playing a sex worker, it's because she's in a Sean Baker film. And you're right, this isn't serious. We're all here just for fun. I'm merely pointing out that internet hype doesn't necessarily translate into awards success.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 15, 2024 0:30:21 GMT
I'll roll the dice. Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez Angelia Jolie for Maria
Nicole Kidman - Babygirl Mikey Madison - AnoraSaoirse Ronan - OutrunOutside - Amy Adams - Night Bitch
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 15, 2024 0:31:46 GMT
But what are you referring to as 'Internet hype'?? Because getting raved at two completely different festivals as Cannes and TIFF/Telluride are, feels like a bit more than that.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 15, 2024 0:55:50 GMT
sterlingarcher86 - My hesitation at calling Madison the frontrunner isn't because she's playing a sex worker, it's because she's in a Sean Baker film. And you're right, this isn't serious. We're all here just for fun. I'm merely pointing out that internet hype doesn't necessarily translate into awards success. Every filmmaker isn’t in the Oscar club until they are. Look at Lanthimos pre The Favourite. Also Pablo has only directed one more Oscar nominated performance than Sean Baker and I believe Dafoe was closer to winning than either of Pablo’s leading ladies. I’m also confused by the “internet hype” thing. Real live people and critics have seen these movies. The people who have seen Anora are just a real as the ones who saw Maria. (Likely more have seen Anora. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 15, 2024 5:21:51 GMT
Nicole Kidman is such a pro. She's back on the circuit promoting Babygirl for the first time at a screening in LA after having to leave Venice before she could receive the Volpi Cup and missing TIFF to mourn her mother's passing. Apparently Brad Pitt, Olivia Wilde and Greg Araki we're at the screening as well.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 15, 2024 15:20:42 GMT
sterlingarcher86 - My hesitation at calling Madison the frontrunner isn't because she's playing a sex worker, it's because she's in a Sean Baker film. And you're right, this isn't serious. We're all here just for fun. I'm merely pointing out that internet hype doesn't necessarily translate into awards success. What does following the Parasite pipeline of Palme win, topping the Telluride poll and placing 3rd at TIFF translate to?? |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 15, 2024 16:14:12 GMT
sterlingarcher86 - My hesitation at calling Madison the frontrunner isn't because she's playing a sex worker, it's because she's in a Sean Baker film. And you're right, this isn't serious. We're all here just for fun. I'm merely pointing out that internet hype doesn't necessarily translate into awards success. What does following the Parasite pipeline of Palme win, topping the Telluride poll and placing 3rd at TIFF translate to?? I'm just waiting to see how the industry precursors will respond to these films. I'm personally very excited to see both Anora and Babygirl. |
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Post by quetee on Sept 15, 2024 16:26:08 GMT
I'm still holding out hope for Demi.
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Post by stephen on Sept 15, 2024 16:29:01 GMT
I'm still holding out hope for Demi. It'd be awesome and inspired as all hell, but The Substance doesn't have a great distributor. She would need the critics to come out in force hard for her. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 15, 2024 16:33:28 GMT
Demi Moore is not Oscar nod worthy imo - she was good - but not that good.....the movie is good until the last 30 mins...but not that good
Worth seeing, worth some praise but.......too much hype tbh
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Post by JangoB on Sept 15, 2024 23:44:37 GMT
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speeders
Based
Posts: 4,162 
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Post by speeders on Sept 16, 2024 0:00:49 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2024 1:03:06 GMT
I think Swinton still has some chance, Moore is definitely out though.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 16, 2024 1:16:51 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 16, 2024 1:21:48 GMT
iirc wilcinema referred to Swinton as "miscast" .........so what is she ....6 through 8?
Moore is not Oscar nod worthy anyway........she's pretty brave in the early scenes though.......people talking about her for a nod need to just chill out.......I like the movie but that last half hour was a huge botch....just saying - neither her or her movie is strong enough in any way
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 16, 2024 1:22:51 GMT
Moore is definitely out though. Did we want to wait until at least one awards body announces their nominations before making such a statement, or... Oh, never mind.  pacinoyes - This is about Julianne, not Demi.  |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 16, 2024 6:59:31 GMT
iirc wilcinema referred to Swinton as "miscast" .........so what is she ....6 through 8? Lol that’s my personal opinion of course, a lot of critics loved her but I still think she’s miscast. If the movie hits, she can totally be nominated. |
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Post by paulgallo on Sept 16, 2024 7:13:21 GMT
That's an interesting move considering Sony Pictures Classics also has The Outrun's Saoirse Ronan in the Best Actress race. Probably shows lack of confidence in getting Ronan in. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 16, 2024 10:37:57 GMT
Fun category this year. I do appreciate the balls of pushing both Almodóvar Chicas in Lead, even though I’ve seen some people say Swinton is actually Supporting.
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie - Maria
Nicole Kidman - Babygirl
Mikey Madison - Anora
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door
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Amy Adams - Nightbitch
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
Julianne Moore - The Room Next Door
Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun
Zendaya - Challengers
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Post by stephen on Sept 16, 2024 13:41:07 GMT
This thread's off to a decent start but y'all really have to step it up if you hope to match the glory that was the 2021 Best Actress thread.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2024 13:43:31 GMT
This thread's off to a decent start but y'all really have to step it up if you hope to match the glory that was the 2021 Best Actress thread. I'll see what I can do |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 16, 2024 14:37:03 GMT
Swinton is not supporting, just not.
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