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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 13, 2024 17:18:05 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - Fair enough! I just think calling Madison the top contender in this category is relying more on internet hype than the Academy's actual tastes/history. Obviously YMMV.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 17:25:27 GMT
I don’t really agree. Madison might also be the best received performance of the group. Agreed. As far as individual raves go, hers are as good as any in the category. I think the closest analogue to her as a winner would be Brie Larson. Larson had about the same amount of profile to her name when she did Room as Madison currently does, if not lower. And Anora is likely to be much stronger overall than Room was. (And ironically, Larson beat Ronan that year as well.) The Academy has been known to fall for an ingénue from time to time (another reason why I have Ronan at 2). |
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 17:28:12 GMT
Agreed. As far as individual raves go, hers are as good as any in the category. I think the closest analogue to her as a winner would be Brie Larson. Larson had about the same amount of profile to her name when she did Room as Madison currently does, if not lower. And Anora is likely to be much stronger overall than Room was. (And ironically, Larson beat Ronan that year as well.) The Academy has been known to fall for an ingénue from time to time. Yeah, there are breakthrough nominations all the time, but they rarely win their first time out in the leading category, and not without a more substantial CV to their name that Madison does. Like I said, Larson is the only comparison in recent memory that I can point to. (It happens much more in supporting for obvious reasons, but Larson aside, I genuinely can't think of anyone else who fits the bill in the last 30+ years except for maybe, if you squint, Adrien Brody.) |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 13, 2024 17:30:21 GMT
I don’t really agree. Madison might also be the best received performance of the group. Agreed. As far as individual raves go, hers are as good as any in the category. I think the closest analogue to her as a winner would be Brie Larson. Larson had about the same amount of profile to her name when she did Room as Madison currently does, if not lower. And Anora is likely to be much stronger overall than Room was. (And ironically, Larson beat Ronan that year as well.) Hard disagree. Larson had way more indie cred from Short Term 12 as well as more higher profile supporting roles at that point. She was much more known in the industry, and by the public. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 13, 2024 17:33:38 GMT
for a brief moment I wondered if Garfield & Pugh could edge into the race for We Live in Time, which doesn't look like a critical masterpiece or anything but potentially a romantic and moving relationship drama that could do decent numbers and be a powerful crowdpleaser. John Crowley at the helm gave me even more confidence.
and then I remembered it's being distributed by A24 haha. It'll be interesting to see when all the smoke clears next winter how many campaigns/films will have been sabotaged by their greed this cycle. Thank god they didn't pick up The Outrun.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 17:36:55 GMT
The Academy has been known to fall for an ingénue from time to time. Yeah, there are breakthrough nominations all the time, but they rarely win their first time out in the leading category, and not without a more substantial CV to their name that Madison does. Like I said, Larson is the only comparison in recent memory that I can point to. (It happens much more in supporting for obvious reasons, but Larson aside, I genuinely can't think of anyone else who fits the bill in the last 30+ years except for maybe, if you squint, Adrien Brody.) I don’t really believe in looking for an apples to apples comparison but when making predictions. If you look at every winner closely you pretty much never find them because everybody has a different path. Also Oscar voters aren’t thinking about it when they vote. None of the contenders check all the boxes but at this minute I think Madison might have the best case. Like there wasn’t really a “reason” to give any of the winners the Oscar last year (maybe Downey) and they just went for the performances they loved in the movies they loved. |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 13, 2024 17:38:53 GMT
I've been toying with the scenario of a Mikey Madison win too tbh. The movie is extremely well received and everyone is calling her performance one for the ages. With contenders falling short of expectations, I think it's Madison vs Kidman at the moment. I believe there will be a strong push to give it to Ronan, I just don't see her winning SAG honestly (but maybe BAFTA?). Adams? I don't think she's happening for a win, maaaaaaaaaybe for a nomination.
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 17:39:00 GMT
Agreed. As far as individual raves go, hers are as good as any in the category. I think the closest analogue to her as a winner would be Brie Larson. Larson had about the same amount of profile to her name when she did Room as Madison currently does, if not lower. And Anora is likely to be much stronger overall than Room was. (And ironically, Larson beat Ronan that year as well.) Hard disagree. Larson had way more indie cred from Short Term 12 as well as more higher profile supporting roles at that point. She was much more known in the industry, and by the public. Aside from Short Term 12 (which, yes, was a big indie sensation but also nowhere near the Academy's radar), does anyone remember she was in The Spectacular Now (hell, does anyone even remember The Spectacular Now at all?) or Scott Pilgrim versus the World? Yeah, she was in The United States of Tara as well but that was also a niche show, and Madison was at least in a similarly acclaimed and watched series with Better Things. I'll take the L if you want to say that Larson's profile was higher than Madison's, that's fine, but Larson is far and away the leading winner with the least amount of mainstream profile this century before she won the Oscar. You could maybe make an argument for Jean Dujardin, but he was very well-known in his home country. If Madison is comparable to any winner in the last few decades, it's via Larson's trajectory. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 17:40:58 GMT
Hard disagree. Larson had way more indie cred from Short Term 12 as well as more higher profile supporting roles at that point. She was much more known in the industry, and by the public. Aside from Short Term 12 (which, yes, was a big indie sensation but also nowhere near the Academy's radar), does anyone remember she was in The Spectacular Now (hell, does anyone even remember The Spectacular Now at all?) or Scott Pilgrim versus the World? Yeah, she was in The United States of Tara as well but that was also a niche show, and Madison was at least in a similarly acclaimed and watched series with Better Things. I'll take the L if you want to say that Larson's profile was higher than Madison's, that's fine, but Larson is far and away the leading winner with the least amount of mainstream profile this century before she won the Oscar. You could maybe make an argument for Jean Dujardin, but he was very well-known in his home country. If Madison is comparable to any winner in the last few decades, it's via Larson's trajectory. I would have invented a new category at the Oscars to give her an Oscar for her musical performance in Scott Pilgram. |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 13, 2024 17:41:51 GMT
I've been toying with the scenario of a Mikey Madison win too tbh. The movie is extremely well received and everyone is calling her performance one for the ages. With contenders falling short of expectations, I think it's Madison vs Kidman at the moment. I believe there will be a strong push to give it to Ronan, I just don't see her winning SAG honestly (but maybe BAFTA?). Adams? I don't think she's happening for a win, maaaaaaaaaybe for a nomination. Again... I'm not saying this won't be the case... It just seems highly unlikely given AMPAS' tastes and past choices. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 17:43:40 GMT
Yeah, there are breakthrough nominations all the time, but they rarely win their first time out in the leading category, and not without a more substantial CV to their name that Madison does. Like I said, Larson is the only comparison in recent memory that I can point to. (It happens much more in supporting for obvious reasons, but Larson aside, I genuinely can't think of anyone else who fits the bill in the last 30+ years except for maybe, if you squint, Adrien Brody.) I don’t really believe in looking for an apples to apples comparison but when making predictions. If you look at every winner closely you pretty much never find them because everybody has a different path. Also Oscar voters aren’t thinking about it when they vote. None of the contenders check all the boxes but at this minute I think Madison might have the best case. Like there wasn’t really a “reason” to give any of the winners the Oscar last year (maybe Downey) and they just went for the performances they loved in the movies they loved. They maybe aren't thinking about it consciously, but there is a trend to look at, and part of that trend is that they look at Oscars as career investments, and when you're young, they rarely give you the win that early because they seem to want to ensure it isn't a fluke. All of the winners last year were in films they loved, yes, but they had also built up a strong reputation and body of work as well, and in Randolph's case she swept the entire season. There are facets and factors to take into consideration, and while you can't look at an apple-to-apple comparison and expect it to work 100% of the time, part of awards prognosticating comes down to looking at the habits, biases, and general trends that we have before us, and if anything looks to maybe buck that trend, what do they have to support that? In Madison's case, she is anchoring the presumed favourite for Best Picture and her competition is in comparatively weaker fare. Hell, in her presumed biggest competitor in Saoirse Ronan, people can't even agree what movie it will be for. |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 13, 2024 17:44:11 GMT
I've been toying with the scenario of a Mikey Madison win too tbh. The movie is extremely well received and everyone is calling her performance one for the ages. With contenders falling short of expectations, I think it's Madison vs Kidman at the moment. I believe there will be a strong push to give it to Ronan, I just don't see her winning SAG honestly (but maybe BAFTA?). Adams? I don't think she's happening for a win, maaaaaaaaaybe for a nomination. Again... I'm not saying this won't be the case... It just seems highly unlikely given AMPAS' tastes and past choices. The raves Kidman is getting at TIFF are giving me pause. I was the first one who said I don't believe she'll win her second with Babygirl, but stranger things have happened imo. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 17:45:45 GMT
I've been toying with the scenario of a Mikey Madison win too tbh. The movie is extremely well received and everyone is calling her performance one for the ages. With contenders falling short of expectations, I think it's Madison vs Kidman at the moment. I believe there will be a strong push to give it to Ronan, I just don't see her winning SAG honestly (but maybe BAFTA?). Adams? I don't think she's happening for a win, maaaaaaaaaybe for a nomination. I don’t see Kidman being in contention to win. Volpi is still a jury prize after all and only three winners have gone on to take the Oscar and all three of them were on top 5 films. |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 13, 2024 17:48:19 GMT
wilcinema - Well, I'm definitely not opposed to the idea of Kidman winning her second! It's just that I can't imagine it for this role. Again, the Academy's history with Kidman: Ignoring her for To Die For, Birth, and The Paperboy, but honoring her for Being the Ricardos...
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 17:49:44 GMT
I don’t really believe in looking for an apples to apples comparison but when making predictions. If you look at every winner closely you pretty much never find them because everybody has a different path. Also Oscar voters aren’t thinking about it when they vote. None of the contenders check all the boxes but at this minute I think Madison might have the best case. Like there wasn’t really a “reason” to give any of the winners the Oscar last year (maybe Downey) and they just went for the performances they loved in the movies they loved. They maybe aren't thinking about it consciously, but there is a trend to look at, and part of that trend is that they look at Oscars as career investments, and when you're young, they rarely give you the win that early because they seem to want to ensure it isn't a fluke. All of the winners last year were in films they loved, yes, but they had also built up a strong reputation and body of work as well, and in Randolph's case she swept the entire season. There are facets and factors to take into consideration, and while you can't look at an apple-to-apple comparison and expect it to work 100% of the time, part of awards prognosticating comes down to looking at the habits, biases, and general trends that we have before us, and if anything looks to maybe buck that trend, what do they have to support that? In Madison's case, she is anchoring the presumed favourite for Best Picture and her competition is in comparatively weaker fare. Hell, in her presumed biggest competitor in Saoirse Ronan, people can't even agree what movie it will be for. Oh trends are helpful but I think over relying on finding direct comparisons is a fallacy that some fall for. As for Ronan since she can be nominated for only one performance im not sure it will matter which. Whichever she gets in for could just be the one. I think they will be voting as much for Ronan as a whole more than the performance. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 17:54:55 GMT
They maybe aren't thinking about it consciously, but there is a trend to look at, and part of that trend is that they look at Oscars as career investments, and when you're young, they rarely give you the win that early because they seem to want to ensure it isn't a fluke. All of the winners last year were in films they loved, yes, but they had also built up a strong reputation and body of work as well, and in Randolph's case she swept the entire season. There are facets and factors to take into consideration, and while you can't look at an apple-to-apple comparison and expect it to work 100% of the time, part of awards prognosticating comes down to looking at the habits, biases, and general trends that we have before us, and if anything looks to maybe buck that trend, what do they have to support that? In Madison's case, she is anchoring the presumed favourite for Best Picture and her competition is in comparatively weaker fare. Hell, in her presumed biggest competitor in Saoirse Ronan, people can't even agree what movie it will be for. Oh trends are helpful but I think over relying on finding direct comparisons is a fallacy that some fall for. As for Ronan since she can be nominated for only one performance im not sure it will matter which. Whichever she gets in for could just be the one. I think they will be voting as much for Ronan as a whole more than the performance. I think it will matter which one she gets in for. Assuming she's lead in Blitz (not even confirmed; that feels like it's going to be the kid's story and Ronan might be more Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit than an actual lead), that is likely to be a stronger overall contender with techs and possible above-the-line nominations than The Outrun. You want the stronger film if you want a better chance at a win, and there's more of a guarantee voters will see the World War II saga than a small addiction indie. |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 13, 2024 17:55:42 GMT
wilcinema - Well, I'm definitely not opposed to the idea of Kidman winning her second! It's just that I can't imagine it for this role. Again, the Academy's history with Kidman: Ignoring her for To Die For, Birth, and The Paperboy, but honoring her for Being the Ricardos... She has never gotten this much momentum for her since she won for The Hours. I wouldn't bet on her right now (again, I'm feeling Madison) but with the right campaign she can win. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 17:58:43 GMT
Oh trends are helpful but I think over relying on finding direct comparisons is a fallacy that some fall for. As for Ronan since she can be nominated for only one performance im not sure it will matter which. Whichever she gets in for could just be the one. I think they will be voting as much for Ronan as a whole more than the performance. I think it will matter which one she gets in for. Assuming she's lead in Blitz (not even confirmed; that feels like it's going to be the kid's story and Ronan might be more Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit than an actual lead), that is likely to be a stronger overall contender with techs and possible above-the-line nominations than The Outrun. You want the stronger film if you want a better chance at a win, and there's more of a guarantee voters will see the World War II saga than a small addiction indie. Either way I think her having two performances in contention helps her more than it hurts her. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 18:02:35 GMT
wilcinema - Well, I'm definitely not opposed to the idea of Kidman winning her second! It's just that I can't imagine it for this role. Again, the Academy's history with Kidman: Ignoring her for To Die For, Birth, and The Paperboy, but honoring her for Being the Ricardos... She has never gotten this much momentum for her since she won for The Hours. I wouldn't bet on her right now (again, I'm feeling Madison) but with the right campaign she can win. I don’t really agree with that. I thought she was much closer for Ricardo’s than she is now. That year was a toss up. This year feels stronger than that year. Honestly if she can’t win for playing Lucille freaking Ball it just shows me that there is no urgency to give her another. |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 13, 2024 18:07:35 GMT
She has never gotten this much momentum for her since she won for The Hours. I wouldn't bet on her right now (again, I'm feeling Madison) but with the right campaign she can win. I don’t really agree with that. I thought she was much closer for Ricardo’s than she is now. That year was a toss up. This year feels stronger than that year. Honestly if she can’t win for playing Lucille freaking Ball it just shows me that there is no urgency to give her another. Nobody really cared about that performance and about that movie, that was fake momentum born out of a random Globe win. Babygirl has the acclaim and she has the raves - and a Volpi Cup, which may mean little in the grand scheme of things but again, it brings momentum. If she wins one of the big critics groups, then she's a force. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 18:13:48 GMT
I don’t really agree with that. I thought she was much closer for Ricardo’s than she is now. That year was a toss up. This year feels stronger than that year. Honestly if she can’t win for playing Lucille freaking Ball it just shows me that there is no urgency to give her another. Nobody really cared about that performance and about that movie, that was fake momentum born out of a random Globe win. Babygirl has the acclaim and she has the raves - and a Volpi Cup, which may mean little in the grand scheme of things but again, it brings momentum. If she wins one of the big critics groups, then she's a force. I again don’t really agree. Ricardo’s had two other above the line nods and was closer to a BP nod that Babygirl will ever be. Yeah the Volpi is momentum and publicity but it’s also in September and like critics awards is largely forgotten when someone wins SAG and or Bafta. |
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Post by paulgallo on Sept 13, 2024 18:41:52 GMT
I'm also not ready to call Madison the frontrunner. It's interesting to note that since the membership overhaul that started around 2016 and has led to a younger and more diverse academy they tend to give Best Actress to older women than before. Stone at 35 is the youngest winner since her first win, all winners in between were over 40 years old. Guess all those earlier ingenue wins were mostly driven by horny old guys.^^
On the other hand Madison could benefit from a field that doesn't look highly competitive at this point so who knows. But she's giving me internet fav vibes and that rarely corresponds with the academy.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 21:03:59 GMT
I'm also not ready to call Madison the frontrunner. It's interesting to note that since the membership overhaul that started around 2016 and has led to a younger and more diverse academy they tend to give Best Actress to older women than before. Stone at 35 is the youngest winner since her first win, all winners in between were over 40 years old. Guess all those earlier ingenue wins were mostly driven by horny old guys.^^ On the other hand Madison could benefit from a field that doesn't look highly competitive at this point so who knows. But she's giving me internet fav vibes and that rarely corresponds with the academy. I don’t think anybody is a front runner at this point in the race. This is just who I switched my prediction to on a whim this morning. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 14, 2024 4:22:31 GMT
Hard disagree. Larson had way more indie cred from Short Term 12 as well as more higher profile supporting roles at that point. She was much more known in the industry, and by the public. Aside from Short Term 12 (which, yes, was a big indie sensation but also nowhere near the Academy's radar), does anyone remember she was in The Spectacular Now (hell, does anyone even remember The Spectacular Now at all?) or Scott Pilgrim versus the World? Yeah, she was in The United States of Tara as well but that was also a niche show, and Madison was at least in a similarly acclaimed and watched series with Better Things. I'll take the L if you want to say that Larson's profile was higher than Madison's, that's fine, but Larson is far and away the leading winner with the least amount of mainstream profile this century before she won the Oscar. You could maybe make an argument for Jean Dujardin, but he was very well-known in his home country. If Madison is comparable to any winner in the last few decades, it's via Larson's trajectory. I'd also add that she had a pretty substantial role in 21 Jump Street, which was a box-office hit at the time. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 14, 2024 7:30:08 GMT
Count me in on the Madison train. She's my winner prediction atm, and if not her, definitely won't be Jolie.
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