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Post by TylerDeneuve on May 26, 2024 13:11:29 GMT
My favorite category! But, as of now… outside of these two, I’m sort of at a loss as to who to predict.
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Who do you have?
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Post by stephen on May 26, 2024 13:19:48 GMT
• Naomi Ackie - Blink Twice (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Amy Adams - Nightbitch (Searchlight)
• Cate Blanchett - Father Mother Sister Brother (No Distributor)
• Michaela Coel - Mother Mary (A24)
• Carrie Coon - His Three Daughters (Netflix)
• Ryan Destiny - The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM Studios)
• Cynthia Erivo - Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures)
• Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie a Deux (Warner Bros. Pictures)
• Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (No Distributor)
• Angelina Jolie - Maria (No Distributor)
• Nicole Kidman - Babygirl (A24)
• Mikey Madison - Anora (Neon)
• Florence Pugh - We Live in Time (A24)
• Saoirse Ronan - Blitz (Apple TV+)
• Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun (Studiocanal)
• Zendaya - Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios)
Obviously, there are a few of these I would rate as bigger longshots than others, but right now these feel like solid contenders either due to prestige, studio, and project likelihood. We did just have a foursome win Best Actress at Cannes for Emilia Perez, and I feel like Karla Sofia Gascon would be the likeliest nominee of that bunch, but I feel like the Academy would have to really embrace that movie hard (i.e. Picture/Director nominations) for me to see Gascon breaking that particular glass ceiling.
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Post by pupdurcs on May 26, 2024 13:23:07 GMT
Just early guessing at this stage, but I can see possibilities for:
Mikey Madison in Anora.
Amy Adams in Nightbitch
Lady Gaga in Joker Folie a Deaux
Nicole Kidman in either Babygirl or Holland, Michigan
Angelina Jolie in Maria
Zendaya in Challengers
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Post by DanQuixote on May 26, 2024 14:02:23 GMT
This feels like a weird year.
Amy Adams - Nightbitch
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie - Maria
Mikey Madison - Anora
Saoirse Ronan - Blitz
Carrie Coon - His Three Daughters
Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie à Deux
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Carol Kane - Between the Temples
Zendaya - Challengers
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Post by mhynson27 on May 26, 2024 14:20:04 GMT
Same 5 as Dan, with Gaga at #6. I think Ronan is much more likely for Blitz than The Outrun TylerDeneuve |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on May 26, 2024 16:35:05 GMT
Same 5 as Dan, with Gaga at #6. I think Ronan is much more likely for Blitz than The Outrun TylerDeneuve I thought they might try to place Ronan in Supporting for Blitz - it’s an ensemble piece, right? Just out of curiosity, what’s your hesitation on The Outrun? If I recall correctly, Ronan earned win-worthy raves out of Sundance? |
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Post by Archie on May 26, 2024 16:36:48 GMT
This could be a Saoirse banner year.
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Post by stephen on May 26, 2024 16:47:50 GMT
Same 5 as Dan, with Gaga at #6. I think Ronan is much more likely for Blitz than The Outrun TylerDeneuve I thought they might try to place Ronan in Supporting for Blitz - it’s an ensemble piece, right?
Just out of curiosity, what’s your hesitation on The Outrun? If I recall correctly, Ronan earned win-worthy raves out of Sundance?From my understanding, The Outrun has yet to have a studio running stateside distribution. It could get scooped up by someone like Focus or something, but as good as her raves were for The Outrun, the consensus is that it would likely be a sole nomination for the film, whereas Blitz has more shots at ATL/BTL nominations. Now, the female acting categories generally can get away with their films not being huge nomination-haulers as opposed to their male counterparts, but The Outrun has been seen for about five months and no one's bitten yet for U.S. distribution. |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on May 26, 2024 18:50:20 GMT
I thought they might try to place Ronan in Supporting for Blitz - it’s an ensemble piece, right?
Just out of curiosity, what’s your hesitation on The Outrun? If I recall correctly, Ronan earned win-worthy raves out of Sundance?From my understanding, The Outrun has yet to have a studio running stateside distribution. It could get scooped up by someone like Focus or something, but as good as her raves were for The Outrun, the consensus is that it would likely be a sole nomination for the film, whereas Blitz has more shots at ATL/BTL nominations. Now, the female acting categories generally can get away with their films not being huge nomination-haulers as opposed to their male counterparts, but The Outrun has been seen for about five months and no one's bitten yet for U.S. distribution. Gotcha. I’m shocked that it hasn’t been picked up yet… I mean, Ronan was even being compared to Gena Rowlands if I recall correctly. I think that if it does manage to find distribution this year, she goes Supporting for Blitz. Edit: I definitely have Jolie in first place. |
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Post by stephen on May 26, 2024 21:34:42 GMT
From my understanding, The Outrun has yet to have a studio running stateside distribution. It could get scooped up by someone like Focus or something, but as good as her raves were for The Outrun, the consensus is that it would likely be a sole nomination for the film, whereas Blitz has more shots at ATL/BTL nominations. Now, the female acting categories generally can get away with their films not being huge nomination-haulers as opposed to their male counterparts, but The Outrun has been seen for about five months and no one's bitten yet for U.S. distribution. Gotcha. I’m shocked that it hasn’t been picked up yet… I mean, Ronan was even being compared to Gena Rowlands if I recall correctly. I think that if it does manage to find distribution this year, she goes Supporting for Blitz. Edit: I definitely have Jolie in first place.On paper Jolie is a strong candidate because of Larraín's general track record with actresses in biopics, but Maria also doesn't have a distributor yet. |
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Post by quetee on May 26, 2024 21:45:08 GMT
I'm thinking and hoping Demi makes it in this year.
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Post by pupdurcs on May 26, 2024 23:11:41 GMT
I'm thinking and hoping Demi makes it in this year. I feel like women with acclaimed performances in horror movies really struggle to get nominated, which is why I'm not too high on Moore.
Lupita Nyong'o in Us
Toni Collete in Hereditary
Florence Pugh in Midsommar
Elizabeth Moss in The Invisible Man
Emily Blunt in A Quiet PlaceSeveral of these performances were pushed hard for a nomination, called the best performances of the year and still came up short. There's a real AMPAS bias against performances in horror movies, that's especially applicable to actresses. I can't see Demi Moore being the one to overcome that bias. She really needed to win Best Actress In Cannes to have real traction. |
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Post by countjohn on May 27, 2024 0:13:06 GMT
This could be a Saoirse banner year. Every year is a Saoirse banner year    |
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Post by mhynson27 on May 27, 2024 0:29:10 GMT
Yeah, I really can't see Demi making it if Toni and Lupita couldn't. There are at least two contenders out of Cannes who are more likely.
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Post by finniussnrub on May 27, 2024 0:33:35 GMT
I thought they might try to place Ronan in Supporting for Blitz - it’s an ensemble piece, right?
Just out of curiosity, what’s your hesitation on The Outrun? If I recall correctly, Ronan earned win-worthy raves out of Sundance?From my understanding, The Outrun has yet to have a studio running stateside distribution. Does Studiocanal ever fail to get a stateside distributor? Not an attack on your point, rather a genuine question for all. |
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Post by franklin on May 27, 2024 0:38:54 GMT
1. Amy Adams
2. Saoirse Ronan
3. Angelina Jolie
4. Mikey Madison
5. Lady Gaga
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Post by Allenism on Jun 19, 2024 21:40:03 GMT
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Mikey Madison, Anora
Lady Gaga, that dumb Joker sequel
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Perez
Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
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Post by speeders on Jun 20, 2024 1:14:03 GMT
A rather unhinged prediction.
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Zendaya, Challengers
Alt:
Mikey Madison, Anora
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
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Post by quetee on Jun 20, 2024 1:50:44 GMT
I think we should add Dakota as a contender.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 20, 2024 3:26:21 GMT
I think we should add Dakota as a contender. She is pretty amazing in Madame Web, I agree. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 20, 2024 3:27:25 GMT
Adams
Jean-Baptiste
Jolie
Madison
Ronan
Gascón
Gaga
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Post by quetee on Jun 20, 2024 4:31:13 GMT
I think we should add Dakota as a contender. She is pretty amazing in Madame Web, I agree. I'm talking about Daddio. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 20, 2024 5:09:20 GMT
She is pretty amazing in Madame Web, I agree. I'm talking about Daddio. I know  But even then, I wouldn't have her in the Top 15. |
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Post by quetee on Jun 20, 2024 5:24:44 GMT
I'm talking about Daddio. I know But even then, I wouldn't have her in the Top 15. Well, my friend to a CAA event and said they are pushing the performances. Not saying they will score nods but they are at least contenders. He thought they were Oscar worthy performances. |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jun 24, 2024 16:45:52 GMT
The Film Experience finally have their predictions up! 1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch2. Angelina Jolie, Maria3. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun5. Mikey Madison, Anora6. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths8. June Squibb, Thelma9. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez10. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez11. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time 13. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked14. Zendaya, Challengers15. Carol Kane, Between the TemplesNote: He has Ronan for Blitz and Moore for The Room Next Door in Supporting.
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