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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2024 0:52:33 GMT
Pre-Venice predix: Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia PérezLady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (still don't believe the supporting rumours and after the Phoenix/Haynes debacle, I feel like they're going to focus their energies on a Best Actress campaign all the more) Angelina Jolie, Maria (still don't feel good about there not being a distributor yet though) Mikey Madison, AnoraSaoirse Ronan, The OutrunI'm pretty sure I read that Maria has a distributor, they just haven't announced it yet. But I could be tripping
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2024 0:53:52 GMT
Adams Gascón Jolie Madison Moore
Ronan Gaga
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 31, 2024 2:11:00 GMT
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 4, 2024 15:59:43 GMT
I’m starting to lean Ronan to win. I know others are in stronger films but I’m imagining the academy not really voting for “Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun” and really just voting for “Saoirse Ronan- 5 (or maybe 6) time Oscar nominee”.
Or she wins in supporting for Blitz. Or even lead for Blitz similar to when Winslet won for The Reader but probably would have won for either film that year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 4, 2024 16:05:21 GMT
I think the Top 2 is Ronan/Madison
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Post by Sharbs on Sept 4, 2024 16:29:34 GMT
gang, she's winning.
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Sept 4, 2024 16:30:21 GMT
The world needs a babygooseronan comeback.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 4, 2024 16:33:54 GMT
I think Kidman feels like a genuine threat for the win this year, given the reception of Babygirl. 93 % on Rotten Tomatoes. Already certified Universal Acclaim on Metacritic with 81 based on 19 reviews. She's rarely had a Best Actress vehicle with reviews this strong, and she is also the most praised element of the film.
You know she will campaign her ass off. She might be an easy win for the Golden Globe Best Actress In A Comedy award, considering how much they love her (I think Babygirl might be considered a black comedy, based on some reviews). She's got the stature & the legendary status to be a two-time Best Actress winner, especially coming off the back of getting the AFI award this year. Her narrative is that she's overdue for a 2nd Oscar, which she is.
I think if she wins the Volpi Cup, that will make a huge difference to her chances. But even if she doesn't, I think she's at least very likely to get nominated this season.
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Post by Archie on Sept 4, 2024 16:35:08 GMT
I'm operating with an element of bias Wait, really?
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Post by Archie on Sept 4, 2024 16:40:01 GMT
I'm operating with an element of bias Wait, really? Lmao, he edited it.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 4, 2024 17:40:49 GMT
Right now I’ll say…
Ronan Gascon Madison Jolie Jean-Baptiste
First 4 look pretty good but really tough to say after that so I’m taking a stab.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2024 1:01:42 GMT
Oh God, not another season where Pup blindly predicts one of his faves for a win, against all logic.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2024 1:04:13 GMT
Right now I’ll say… Ronan Gascon Madison Jolie Jean-Baptiste First 4 look pretty good but really tough to say after that so I’m going taking a stab. This is pretty much where I'm at too. Ronan/Madison/Gascon/Jolie Top 4, with Kidman v Jean-Baptiste for the last slot. But who knows, maybe the trailer was a massive misrepresentation, and Adams gets in after all.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 5, 2024 1:55:03 GMT
Oh God, not another season where Pup blindly predicts one of his faves for a win, against all logic. Just let him have this, man. This thread doesn’t need to turn into a whole thing.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 5, 2024 2:16:03 GMT
Oh God, not another season where Pup blindly predicts one of his faves for a win, against all logic. Just let him have this, man. This thread doesn’t need to turn into a whole thing. Too fucking late.Just another asshole I blocked still begging for my attention and you gave it to him with the quote, cuz I wouldn't have seen it otherwise (bet you're surprised I haven't blocked you yet though ). I don't need to explain myself to that dickhead, which is why I blocked him in the first place. If I want to say I think Kidman has solid chances this year because she has a extremely well reviewed film, has great performance reviews and has a good narrative for 2nd win as an industry legend, and is guaranteed to campaign hard, I fucking well will. Same deal for Denzel and Gladiator 2, which he may or may not contend to win for . Suck it...whether they win or lose, I'll back, support or predict who I want if they look to have a credible shot in a given season, and it so happens that my faves look like credible threats this year so far. It's not that serious. Why the fuck do people who know I blocked them and have zero interest in interacting with them give a shit what I think anyway or about my opinion? Keep it moving, get on with your life and stop begging for scraps of my attention. It gives small dick energy. I don't give a fuck what you think at all about anything, but I live rent free in your head. It's like some ex-girlfriend who can't handle being dumped.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 5, 2024 2:33:51 GMT
To paraphrase stephen , someone on MAR I actually respect: "Between this ( Babygirl) and Gladiator II, pupdurcs eatin' good this year". I'm gonna eat (I'm also smug enough to remember when almost nobody on MAR except me thought Kidman would get near an Oscar nomination for Being The Ricardos, because everyone jumped on the social media hatewagon of her initial casting being terrible. I backed my "fave" all the way because I understood her range and capability and was vindicated, whilst the naysayers went on Airplane Mode. I'm sometimes wrong, but I'm often right. It is what It is).
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Post by sirjeremy on Sept 5, 2024 9:20:24 GMT
Jolie Kidman Moore Pugh Ronan
I doubt Jean-Baptiste will make it because, as mentioned, Bleecker Street have a poor track record with getting nominations from big award groups and her film looks slight and predictable.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 5, 2024 12:58:35 GMT
At the risk of getting virtual tomatoes thrown at me:
- Jolie - Madison - Ronan - Kidman - Adams
Yes, Nightbitch looks, shall we say, peculiar, but I think that was expected? I'm kinda sure that Adams will get much praise for going far out and full on with the role, for her "bravery" and commitment and so on. And I know I'm writing this just a few days before it premieres so feel free to prepare that crow for me to eat if the movie is indeed panned. But that trailer didn't really dissuade me from predicting her to be nominated.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 5, 2024 13:08:52 GMT
But… outside of these two, I’m sort of at a loss as to who to predict. Angelina Jolie, MariaSaoirse Ronan, The OutrunI'm basically still here.
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Post by stephen on Sept 5, 2024 13:13:21 GMT
At the risk of getting virtual tomatoes thrown at me: - Jolie - Madison - Ronan - Kidman - Adams Yes, Nightbitch looks, shall we say, peculiar, but I think that was expected? I'm kinda sure that Adams will get much praise for going far out and full on with the role, for her "bravery" and commitment and so on. And I know I'm writing this just a few days before it premieres so feel free to prepare that crow for me to eat if the movie is indeed panned. But that trailer didn't really dissuade me from predicting her to be nominated. I mean, you'll look like a genius if you're right about Adams and we'll know for sure in a couple of days, so I say ride the painted pony to the wheels fall off.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2024 14:23:53 GMT
Jolie Kidman Moore Pugh Ronan I doubt Jean-Baptiste will make it because, as mentioned, Bleecker Street have a poor track record with getting nominations from big award groups and her film looks slight and predictable. I'm more interested in the lack of Madison and Gascon. What are your thoughts there??
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Post by JangoB on Sept 5, 2024 14:33:22 GMT
At the risk of getting virtual tomatoes thrown at me: - Jolie - Madison - Ronan - Kidman - Adams Yes, Nightbitch looks, shall we say, peculiar, but I think that was expected? I'm kinda sure that Adams will get much praise for going far out and full on with the role, for her "bravery" and commitment and so on. And I know I'm writing this just a few days before it premieres so feel free to prepare that crow for me to eat if the movie is indeed panned. But that trailer didn't really dissuade me from predicting her to be nominated. I mean, you'll look like a genius if you're right about Adams and we'll know for sure in a couple of days, so I say ride the painted pony to the wheels fall off. Allow me to bring up an oldie but a goodie:
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Post by stephen on Sept 5, 2024 14:46:03 GMT
I mean, you'll look like a genius if you're right about Adams and we'll know for sure in a couple of days, so I say ride the painted pony to the wheels fall off. Allow me to bring up an oldie but a goodie: Bening was in a biopic, though. Those don't need to be critically embraced to do well. This is a movie about a woman who starts turning into a dog. That's always going to be a hard sell regardless of the quality because of the preposterous nature of the role/story, and would require huge critical backing. There is a possibility things could turn around, but the trailer did not engender any sort of faith that it's going to overcome the ludicrousness of the premise.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 5, 2024 14:50:37 GMT
Allow me to bring up an oldie but a goodie: Bening was in a biopic, though. Those don't need to be critically embraced to do well. This is a movie about a woman who starts turning into a dog. That's always going to be a hard sell regardless of the quality because of the preposterous nature of the role/story, and would require huge critical backing. There is a possibility things could turn around, but the trailer did not engender any sort of faith that it's going to overcome the ludicrousness of the premise. *whispers* I was just bringing up an MAR meme related to dubious predictions, not comparing the roles/movies at all
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Post by stephen on Sept 5, 2024 14:54:26 GMT
Bening was in a biopic, though. Those don't need to be critically embraced to do well. This is a movie about a woman who starts turning into a dog. That's always going to be a hard sell regardless of the quality because of the preposterous nature of the role/story, and would require huge critical backing. There is a possibility things could turn around, but the trailer did not engender any sort of faith that it's going to overcome the ludicrousness of the premise. *whispers* I was just bringing up an MAR meme related to dubious predictions, not comparing the roles/movies at allI recognize no MAR memes but the King in the North whose name is Stark.
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