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Post by stephen on Sept 8, 2024 19:31:22 GMT
Karla Sofia Gascón's narrative is gigantic, especially given the current climate. She won Cannes Best Actress, her film is a potential top five player, she has Netflix backing her, and she has the opportunity to be the first trans acting winner. And considering this particular year in regards to politics and trans rights, that cannot be overstated. Gascón's major hurdle is her name recognition, which doesn't help in the leading category, but everything else makes her a very powerful threat. Yeah, after the Academy completely rejected the narrative of making Lily Gladstone the first Native American/Indigenous Best Actress winner to give Emma Stone a 2nd Oscar she didn't need and continue to keep ignoring more opportunities to award more than 1 black woman in Best Actress in a century, I truly believe that Best Actress is one category where voters don't give a fuck about identity politics. I don't think the Trans narrative helps her at all. I'd argue it actually disadvantages her, knowing the history of the category I mean, Emma Stone falls into the category I mentioned earlier of having a much stronger film than Gladstone (see above, where I posit Poor Things to be second place last year, whereas Killers was dropping off by the day), and her performance was arguably the most rapturously raved of the whole year. Gladstone had the narrative but she was also dealing with a lot of pitfalls as well people were willfully blinding themselves to because they thought the narrative would be enough. If Babygirl was going to be as big of an overall player as Poor Things, I would consider Kidman more readily. As far as Gascón's narrative goes, the timeliness of the narrative also is important, as trans rights is one of the biggest social causes going on right now.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2024 20:00:24 GMT
If I'm looking at the pros and cons for Kidman: Pros: 1. She won the Volpi Cup. Rose Byrne and Cailee Spaeny are the only English-language female winners to miss the Oscar nomination since 2000, and neither of them is close to Kidman's stature in the industry. 2. The film itself is pretty critically acclaimed outside of her. 3. Despite A24 having three of the major Best Actor contenders, their only primary player in Best Actress is Kidman. 4. The field is starting to thin out as presumed contenders like Adams and Gaga drop off. Cons: 1. Like wilcinema (who has seen the film) said, this is much more in line with her more outre fare like Dogville or Birth than with anything she's done that the Academy's gone for before. Acclaimed or not, this is an explicit erotic thriller -- a genre the Academy historically looks down on.2. A24 has a lot on their plate this year, and they have historically bungled managing multiple campaigns at once. 2022 was a fluke. 3. She's up against competition with strong narratives of their own, most of whom have stronger films overall. A second Oscar win usually connotes a strong film alongside them, an undeniable narrative or a strong critical sweep. And while Kidman's individual reviews are very strong, so too are those of her competitors. All of this to say that I think Kidman stands a very good shot at the nomination, but the win itself is going to take some doing. All good points. Though on #1 con, I think the academy has most certainly changed since those films however, I mean let's not forget the film that won best actress last year. Theoretically, yes. Practically, the sex and how it’s framed in Poor Things is VERY different to the sex in Babygirl. I wouldn’t make a comparison.
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 8, 2024 20:01:50 GMT
All good points. Though on #1 con, I think the academy has most certainly changed since those films however, I mean let's not forget the film that won best actress last year. Theoretically, yes. Practically, the sex and how it’s framed in Poor Things is VERY different to the sex in Babygirl. I wouldn’t make a comparison. Wasn't a comparison on the film in terms of specifics, just that the success of Poor Things overall, which definitely would not have been academy fair in the 00's, shows a change in general taste allowing for something that is a bit more off-beat.
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 8, 2024 20:05:49 GMT
By the way, are we all convinced that Emilia Pérez is such a definite contender overall? As Audiard isn't an academy darling, the CANNES actress win was a multi-win diluting it a bit, it didn't take the Palm, and currently its critical reception is weaker than The Sisters Brothers, which obviously was a non-contender. I get the potential of the progressive narrative Netflix can push behind it, but is it a slam dunk beyond that?
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Post by stephen on Sept 8, 2024 20:25:25 GMT
By the way, are we all convinced that Emilia Pérez is such a definite contender overall? As Audiard isn't an academy darling, the CANNES actress win was a multi-win diluting it a bit, it didn't take the Palm, and currently its critical reception is weaker than The Sisters Brothers, which obviously was a non-contender. I get the potential of the progressive narrative Netflix can push behind it, but is it a slam dunk beyond that? It seems to be bandied about as a potential to take the TIFF Audience Award, it played very well with Telluride audiences, and the Cannes actress win doesn't really dilute it considering that Gascón won't be competing against her castmates for awards attention (Saldana will likely be running in supporting alongside Gomez). Netflix only really has it and The Piano Lesson as major contenders ( Maria probably will only be a vehicle for Jolie), and considering how this one has been playing for audiences, this is probably what they're going to prioritize. The thing is, Actress and Supporting Actress have contenders dropping like flies, and there is a real shot of seeing three people from the Emilia Pérez cast get nominated for Oscars. Plus it's probably a SAG Ensemble player. Not too much of a stretch to imagine it'll get into the similarly anemic Adapted Screenplay lineup, and Picture and Director are absolutely on the table for nominations.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 9, 2024 9:44:43 GMT
By the way, are we all convinced that Emilia Pérez is such a definite contender overall? As Audiard isn't an academy darling, the CANNES actress win was a multi-win diluting it a bit, it didn't take the Palm, and currently its critical reception is weaker than The Sisters Brothers, which obviously was a non-contender. I get the potential of the progressive narrative Netflix can push behind it, but is it a slam dunk beyond that? The thing is, Actress and Supporting Actress have contenders dropping like flies, and there is a real shot of seeing three people from the Emilia Pérez cast get nominated for Oscars. Plus it's probably a SAG Ensemble player. Not too much of a stretch to imagine it'll get into the similarly anemic Adapted Screenplay lineup, and Picture and Director are absolutely on the table for nominations. I feel like you might be getting a touch carried away with Emilia Perez's potential. Right now it's 71 on Metacritic with 18 Reviews. For a supposed across the board contender, that's a deeply average score. The way people were hyping this film, I expected a meta score in the 80's, if not 90's. Yet it's only one or two bad reviews from being in the 60's. Last year's Best Picture nominated films did not have a single movie with a metacritic score as low as Emilia Perez's currently is. The BP nominee with the lowest score was Maestro at 77, which is still a full 6 points ahead of EP .I'm not quite getting where all this confidence in Emilia Perez to score all these across the board nominations is coming from. The reviews aren't really there for that.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 9, 2024 10:53:20 GMT
By the way, are we all convinced that Emilia Pérez is such a definite contender overall? As Audiard isn't an academy darling, the CANNES actress win was a multi-win diluting it a bit, it didn't take the Palm, and currently its critical reception is weaker than The Sisters Brothers, which obviously was a non-contender. I get the potential of the progressive narrative Netflix can push behind it, but is it a slam dunk beyond that? Yeah, this movie's giving me the biggest headache so far predictions-wise. Either it's the big international contender of the year or, like Audiard's previous films, it's just a non-entity. I guess we're gonna have to wait for the season itself to tell us what it is.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 9, 2024 12:10:39 GMT
Emilia Pérez has its fans but it also has its vocal detractors. I think GG and SAG noms should be fine but I’d be careful overpredicting it for BAFTA and Oscar.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 9, 2024 13:50:18 GMT
Yeah, I've been very skeptical about Emilia Perez since the Cannes rollout.
I personally think the trailers have looked godawful and alienating (same case for Nightbitch but Adams & Gascón and her co-stars could easily still be in the mix, I just don't think they are as safe or locked and people make it sound like they are.) But it's also the reviews don't give me much confidence, like pointed out, the metacritic score at this point doesn't give the implication this is getting the amount of critic love and I think general audiences will be put off as well.
I think Cannes offered Audiard some hometown advantage -- and they're also obviously more open for a more unconventional musical not in English. Audiard hasn't had much luck with the Academy so far (apart from A Prophet's best international film nomination 14 years ago. I personally thought Rust & Bone was incredible and snubbed) and I'm not sure if this is the film to change that.
I'm willing to eat my words if Emilia Perez does turn out to be a huge Oscar darling, I just really don't see it at this point. This is shaping up to be an insanely packed, competitive and unpredictable award season and I'm here for it.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 9, 2024 14:19:26 GMT
The elephants in the room are Moore and Swinton. I wouldn’t nominate either but they’re hugely respected Oscar winners who are the stars of an Almodóvar movie that just won Venice. At least one of them is getting nominated.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 9, 2024 21:14:07 GMT
The elephants in the room are Moore and Swinton. I wouldn’t nominate either but they’re hugely respected Oscar winners who are the stars of an Almodóvar movie that just won Venice. At least one of them is getting nominated. I think they both are
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 14:42:24 GMT
I think I’m changing my win prediction to Madison. Not too scientific it just kind of hit me how much they live giving this award to people playing sex workers.
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 14:58:56 GMT
I think I’m changing my win prediction to Madison. Not too scientific it just kind of hit me how much they live giving this award to people playing sex workers. It's a very good point -- the Academy loves it when actresses go for "brave, daring" roles that like, and Anora is currently a top two contender. The only thing that gives me pause is that Madison is virtually an unknown, and the Academy rarely gives a win out without at least some name recognition in the leading category (sorry, playing a minor role in a Tarantino film and a Scream sequel don't count here). She needs the critics behind her.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 13, 2024 15:36:02 GMT
I think it's really important to note that the internet's tastes very rarely align with the Academy's (see last year's massive haul for Maestro as just one example).
The intense confidence in Anora and Madison as major players is really surprising to me, given that AMPAS has only once embraced a Sean Baker film - and that was an Acting nomination for a respected veteran actor...
In other words... Predicting Madison over Jolie (for instance, but Ronan applies here too) makes no sense to me.
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 15:44:07 GMT
I think it's really important to note that the internet's tastes very rarely align with the Academy's (see last year's massive haul for Maestro as just one example). The intense confidence in Anora and Madison as major players is really surprising to me, given that AMPAS has only once embraced a Sean Baker film - and that was an Acting nomination for a respected veteran actor... In other words... Predicting Madison over Jolie (for instance, but Ronan applies here too) makes no sense to me. We could've said the same thing about the Daniels before Everything Everywhere All At Once, or Chloe Zhao before Nomadland, or Bong Joon-ho before Parasite, or Peter Farrelly before Green Book.Anora won the Palme and is being raved as a huge audience hit, and it's got Neon behind it. It is a massive contender. Jolie's still got a shot but her film didn't exactly light the world on fire at Venice, and she didn't even win the Volpi Cup for it. Ronan has the raves for The Outrun but it is similarly looking like a solo nomination if she gets it. Madison has by far the strongest film of a Best Actress contender currently going.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 16:09:23 GMT
I think I’m changing my win prediction to Madison. Not too scientific it just kind of hit me how much they live giving this award to people playing sex workers. It's a very good point -- the Academy loves it when actresses go for "brave, daring" roles that like, and Anora is currently a top two contender. The only thing that gives me pause is that Madison is virtually an unknown, and the Academy rarely gives a win out without at least some name recognition in the leading category (sorry, playing a minor role in a Tarantino film and a Scream sequel don't count here). She needs the critics behind her. None of the candidates are perfect. Jolie and Ronan will be their films only nominations. Gascon is also an unknown. I would rank those 4’s likelihood of winning as… Madison Ronan (still considering her since this will be her 5th or 6th nomination and the Oscars love people who play alchoholicw too) Gascon Jolie Pretty open though.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 16:10:01 GMT
I think it's really important to note that the internet's tastes very rarely align with the Academy's (see last year's massive haul for Maestro as just one example). The intense confidence in Anora and Madison as major players is really surprising to me, given that AMPAS has only once embraced a Sean Baker film - and that was an Acting nomination for a respected veteran actor... In other words... Predicting Madison over Jolie (for instance, but Ronan applies here too) makes no sense to me. It’s not like Maria is going to light up the Oscars…
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 16:17:58 GMT
It's a very good point -- the Academy loves it when actresses go for "brave, daring" roles that like, and Anora is currently a top two contender. The only thing that gives me pause is that Madison is virtually an unknown, and the Academy rarely gives a win out without at least some name recognition in the leading category (sorry, playing a minor role in a Tarantino film and a Scream sequel don't count here). She needs the critics behind her. None of the candidates are perfect. Jolie and Ronan will be their films only nominations. Gascon is also an unknown. I would rank those 4’s likelihood of winning as… Madison Ronan Gascon Jolie Pretty open though. I don't even think Jolie's a given for a nomination. It's the only major biopic performance in contention so she has that to her name, plus she is the biggest name actress alongside Kidman for the primary candidates . . . but Maria has gotten the coolest reception of the Larrain biopic trinity (which obviously were over-predicted each and every time as winner candidates), Netflix is likely going to prioritize Emilia Perez and Gascon over her, and Kidman usurped any awards momentum at Venice when she took the Volpi Cup.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 16:23:33 GMT
None of the candidates are perfect. Jolie and Ronan will be their films only nominations. Gascon is also an unknown. I would rank those 4’s likelihood of winning as… Madison Ronan Gascon Jolie Pretty open though. I don't even think Jolie's a given for a nomination. It's the only major biopic performance in contention so she has that to her name, plus she is the biggest name actress alongside Kidman for the primary candidates . . . but Maria has gotten the coolest reception of the Larrain biopic trinity (which obviously were over-predicted each and every time as winner candidates), Netflix is likely going to prioritize Emilia Perez and Gascon over her, and Kidman usurped any awards momentum at Venice when she took the Volpi Cup. I don’t think she’s locked either but currently in 4th by default.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 16:31:20 GMT
Also I think people are being pretty stubborn about Adams. Probably because of our reaction to the trailer. Pundits I’ve followed who have actually seen the movie are moving her into their predictions. She’s very much in contention for the 4th or 5th spot.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 13, 2024 16:45:47 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - I'm not suggesting that Maria and The Outrun are stronger overall contenders than Anora - merely that Jolie and Ronan are stronger as individual contenders for Best Actress.
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 16:52:25 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - I'm not suggesting that Maria and The Outrun are stronger overall contenders than Anora - merely that Jolie and Ronan are stronger as individual contenders for Best Actress. Ronan might be (a banner year and not having won yet despite numerous nominations), but I don't think Jolie is. We've talked about it elsewhere, but a second win usually correlates to a stronger film behind the winner. The only exception to this in recent times is Renee Zellweger, who swept the field so thoroughly for Judy that no one else had a chance to secure a foothold. (Even Denzel was able to bring Ethan Hawke along with him.) I would argue Madison's actually the safest nominee right now in Best Actress. Her film is poised to do extremely well above-the-line with Picture, possibly Director, and Screenplay nominations, and it's win-competitive in those categories. Madison's only real knock against her is her newbie status but if they like the film that much, they are going to like her. I do think there are stronger narratives in the mix (Ronan's never won, Karla Sofia Gascon could become the first trans winner and her film is also a much bigger potential contender across the board than everyone bar Madison, Kidman beat Jolie head-to-head at Venice and is A24's primary focus in the category), but we've also seen the Academy actively reject narratives in favour of performances they actually like, in films they like.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2024 16:58:46 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - I'm not suggesting that Maria and The Outrun are stronger overall contenders than Anora - merely that Jolie and Ronan are stronger as individual contenders for Best Actress. I don’t really agree. Madison might also be the best received performance of the group.
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Post by stephen on Sept 13, 2024 17:06:09 GMT
stephen sterlingarcher86 - I'm not suggesting that Maria and The Outrun are stronger overall contenders than Anora - merely that Jolie and Ronan are stronger as individual contenders for Best Actress. I don’t really agree. Madison might also be the best received performance of the group. Agreed. As far as individual raves go, hers are as good as any in the category. I think the closest analogue to her as a winner would be Brie Larson. Larson had about the same amount of profile to her name when she did Room as Madison currently does, if not lower. And Anora is likely to be much stronger overall than Room was. (And ironically, Larson beat Ronan that year as well.)
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 13, 2024 17:11:01 GMT
None of the candidates are perfect. Jolie and Ronan will be their films only nominations. Gascon is also an unknown. I would rank those 4’s likelihood of winning as… Madison Ronan Gascon Jolie Pretty open though. I don't even think Jolie's a given for a nomination. It's the only major biopic performance in contention so she has that to her name, plus she is the biggest name actress alongside Kidman for the primary candidates . . . but Maria has gotten the coolest reception of the Larrain biopic trinity (which obviously were over-predicted each and every time as winner candidates), Netflix is likely going to prioritize Emilia Perez and Gascon over her, and Kidman usurped any awards momentum at Venice when she took the Volpi Cup. No one is a given for a nomination. I’d easily put Julie’s odds over Madison though
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