flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 16, 2022 20:41:56 GMT
I think Denzel is in the running, though not as the favorite, even if he loses both BAFTA and SAG, as long as we don't have a surprise and the same actor wins both (of course, I'm thinking Smith takes SAG and Cumberbatch takes BAFTA). If one does, that's the winner. Garfield isn't winning with this competition, but with two noms, one absurd snub (for TSN) and a Tony, he's building his name to win eventually.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 20:43:14 GMT
People here are looking for any kind of excuse to create drama. There is nothing to indicate that Will Smith is not on track. He won the Globe, King Richard had good showings at SAG and the BAFTA long list. Ellis did miss SAG, so did TPOTD for Ensemble, but they will be picked up with Oscar.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 16, 2022 20:48:00 GMT
Smith is a lock? You mean like Boseman was last year? Or Glenn Close 3 years ago?
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 20:50:12 GMT
Smith is a lock? You mean like Boseman was last year? Or Glenn Close 3 years ago? Neither was in a Best Picture nominee. Close was the only nominee for her film.
No one is a LOCK at this point. For all we know, Cumberbatch could end up being snubbed by BAFTA. It happened with Mulligan and Colman last year.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 16, 2022 21:16:06 GMT
Smith is a lock? You mean like Boseman was last year? Or Glenn Close 3 years ago? Neither was in a Best Picture nominee. Close was the only nominee for her film.
No one is a LOCK at this point. For all we know, Cumberbatch could end up being snubbed by BAFTA. It happened with Mulligan and Colman last year.
So, it's Smith being in a (likely) BP nominee that automatically makes him stronger than a 7th time nominee with no wins and a massive overdue narrative running against first time nominees, or an icon that dies when he's still young and his prime and has his last and only chance facing someone that has won one already and is not even campaigning? Yeah, right.
Smith is facing two actors who are more acclaimed (Denzel much more so) and less likely to get entangled in controversy over stupid bullshit. Plus Cumberbatch's film is much stronger. This idea he's unbeatable is non-sense.
The snubs last year only happened because of the jury system, and they made changes to avoid something like that this year. It's FAR more likely that Smith is snubbed from BAFTA than Cumberbatch is, particularly with their history.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 16, 2022 21:19:42 GMT
People here are looking for any kind of excuse to create drama. There is nothing to indicate that Will Smith is not on track. He won the Globe, King Richard had good showings at SAG and the BAFTA long list. Ellis did miss SAG, so did TPOTD for Ensemble, but they will be picked up with Oscar.
Pretty much - I mean he could lose SAG - and I think Garfield could win SAG but I doubt it - but I don't see how he's not the odds on favorite for SAG and while Benny could upset and probably will win BAFTA - I'd still have it as Smith's to lose as long as he wins SAG. I just posted yesterday the Andrew Garfield beat Washington for a Tony - although Washington may not have been 2nd that year - he had a Tony already too - and I saw both of those performances and if people think he's cringey in TTB - he gave a very similar performance in Angels in America - same mannerisms, "mannered" in choices and pitch of where he "set" the performance at ...........and I have never heard a crowd applaud louder than they did for Garfield - and yeah part of that was the play but people were fawning over him .....and people love him in TTB too - and he even won me over (in both actually). People doubting him is always weird to me - it's like they don't know people irl .......or if people tell you they love it people impose their own feelings on the way the work is playing to others......people misread the room when it comes to Garfield
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 16, 2022 21:22:45 GMT
People here are looking for any kind of excuse to create drama. There is nothing to indicate that Will Smith is not on track. He won the Globe, King Richard had good showings at SAG and the BAFTA long list. Ellis did miss SAG, so did TPOTD for Ensemble, but they will be picked up with Oscar.
I don’t think anybody is saying Smith isn’t the favorite we are just talking about other possibilities.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 16, 2022 21:35:06 GMT
While Washington could win - it would involve some tricky logistics:
First, he would need SAG and I don't think he's getting it - and if you could go back and switch this with 2016 when he won SAG really his main win against Affleck - I bet you'd give that up so he could win a career SAG and have momentum for a win.
In Washington's 2 "near misses" - you can pinpoint where he lost the race - in '92 it was when Pacino won the Globe and in 2016 it was when he missed a BAFTA nod. BAFTA didn't hurt him the 2 times he won but in 2016 it absolutely killed him......
This year, it's cruel irony - I always mock his filmography (because it's weak, um) but it is inexplicable that TToM is maybe (likely?) missing BP with how good it is in techs and not only that but House of Gucci, TTB and DLU are likely in. Like this year he can't win missing BP Smith and Cumby won't........it's really baffling that his film is stagnating in the larger sense.
Washington could win but he'd have to really thread the needle to do it .......and hope Smith has his own version of Crowe's "throw the phone moment" and he'd still have to leapfrog 3 guys......all of whom may have BP's maybe......
People complain about A24 dropping the ball with Fran and Hunter - maybe they're REALLY dropping the ball in BP.......on the other hand there's still time to right the ship......if Washington had BP this year he'd be a far bigger threat to win .......
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 21:44:37 GMT
Neither was in a Best Picture nominee. Close was the only nominee for her film.
No one is a LOCK at this point. For all we know, Cumberbatch could end up being snubbed by BAFTA. It happened with Mulligan and Colman last year.
So, it's Smith being in a (likely) BP nominee that automatically makes him stronger than a 7th time nominee with no wins and a massive overdue narrative running against first time nominees, or an icon that dies when he's still young and his prime and has his last and only chance facing someone that has won one already and is not even campaigning? Yeah, right.
Smith is facing two actors who are more acclaimed (Denzel much more so) and less likely to get entangled in controversy over stupid bullshit. Plus Cumberbatch's film is much stronger. This idea he's unbeatable is non-sense.
The snubs last year only happened because of the jury system, and they made changes to avoid something like that this year. It's FAR more likely that Smith is snubbed from BAFTA than Cumberbatch is, particularly with their history.
Why are you so threatened??? No one is claiming anyone is unbeatable. But at this point, nothing has changed the Best Actor race. Denzel winning a critics award doesn't change it. Neither does audiences liking Garfield. BAFTA is moot at this point - until we know the nominees.
If Smith had the kind of disaster week like Stewart, sure. But he had a good week. That can change later on - or it may not.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 17, 2022 9:10:49 GMT
I see Cumberbatch as this year's Keaton, the lead of the eventual BP winner that loses Actor to a baity performance.
I'd love it a Garfield win, it's a harder and more complex performance than many give him credit for, but he needs SAG to do that, and I don't think he has the muscle for that.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 17, 2022 18:54:52 GMT
Not generally a fan of this source (some horribly inaccurate "scoops" recently), but a few here (you know who you are.lol!) swear by them. World Of Reel claiming Denzel's performance has been going down gangbusters at industry screenings and is a serious threat to win the Oscar. www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/1/ctc43i7tl5tuc1gewhhiuzjkjg6el6Smith oddly isn't doing much campaigning either as the article points out. Which seems incredibly strange for someone like him who has built his career on self-promotion .He was talking too much really early in the season (no one needed to hear about his sex life or how Jada wished he was Tupac ). Now he's talking (and doing) too little. I don't think he's undeniable and can just coast his way to a win on minimal effort. If he doesn't start actually working for this Oscar, I think it's there for the taking for Denzel or Cumberbatch.
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2022 18:57:28 GMT
Not generally a fan of this source (some horribly inaccurate "scoops" recently), but a few here swear by them. World Of Reel claiming Denzel's performance has been going down gangbusters at industry screenings and is a serious threat to win the Oscar. www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/1/ctc43i7tl5tuc1gewhhiuzjkjg6el6Smith oddly isn't doing much campaigning either as the article points out. Which seems incredibly strange for someone like him who has built his career on self-promotion .He was talking too much really early in the season (no one needed to hear about his sex life or how Jada wished he was Tupac ). Now he's talking (and doing) too little. I don't think he's undeniable and can just coast his way to a win on minimal effort. If he doesn't start actually working for this Oscar, I think it's there for the taking for Denzel or Cumberbatch. Do not fall into Ruimy's trap just because he's posting anecdotes that benefit your horse in the race. Dude cannot be trusted.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 17, 2022 19:06:30 GMT
Not generally a fan of this source (some horribly inaccurate "scoops" recently), but a few here swear by them. World Of Reel claiming Denzel's performance has been going down gangbusters at industry screenings and is a serious threat to win the Oscar. www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/1/ctc43i7tl5tuc1gewhhiuzjkjg6el6Smith oddly isn't doing much campaigning either as the article points out. Which seems incredibly strange for someone like him who has built his career on self-promotion .He was talking too much really early in the season (no one needed to hear about his sex life or how Jada wished he was Tupac ). Now he's talking (and doing) too little. I don't think he's undeniable and can just coast his way to a win on minimal effort. If he doesn't start actually working for this Oscar, I think it's there for the taking for Denzel or Cumberbatch. Do not fall into Ruimy's trap just because he's posting anecdotes that benefit your horse in the race. Dude cannot be trusted. I don't trust Ruimy at all. Which is why I EXPLICITLY said I'm not a fan of the source and he's had some " horribly inaccurate scoops recently". The only bit I trust from that article is the bit about Smith's lack of campaigning. But that is self-evident, not anything he's got special knowledge of. I don't give a shit what Ruimy has to say about anything, including this. I mainly posted that since Pacinoyes loves to swear by anything Ruimy dribbles out of his website, and he's pretty invested in Denzel not winning a third Oscar. So, I thought I'd be a bit mischievous and see if he's conflicted by this piece. Because if Ruimy says it, according to Pac, it must be true or in good faith!
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 17, 2022 19:20:00 GMT
I don't give a shit what Ruimy has to say about anything, including this. I mainly posted that since Pacinoyes loves to swear by anything Ruimy dribbles out of his website, and he's pretty invested in Denzel not winning a third. So, I thought I'd be a bit mischievous and see if he's conflicted by this pieceTbh I still like Jordan Ruimy ........ when he breaks gossip which he does do - this board loves Will Mavity and Will is wrong at least as much. This board is pretty hypocritical on that stuff tbh. Other stuff Ruimy has been awful on..... pacinoyes is not "invested in Denzel not winning a third" - pacinoyes could care less........ but pacinoyes thinks it's funny how you guys post every positive tweet for your favorite actor ....I don't think he's winning .......I think he's 4th.......I posted on that yesterday. I will say nobody who has "1" necessarily deserves a 2nd......or a 3rd......so that's a good philosophy to have. Carry on ladies.......
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sirchuck23
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Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 17, 2022 21:51:27 GMT
Do not fall into Ruimy's trap just because he's posting anecdotes that benefit your horse in the race. Dude cannot be trusted. I don't trust Ruimy at all. Which is why I EXPLICITLY said I'm not a fan of the source and he's had some " horribly inaccurate scoops recently". The only bit I trust from that article is the bit about Smith's lack of campaigning. But that is self-evident, not anything he's got special knowledge of. I don't give a shit what Ruimy has to say about anything, including this. I mainly posted that since Pacinoyes loves to swear by anything Ruimy dribbles out of his website, and he's pretty invested in Denzel not winning a third Oscar. So, I thought I'd be a bit mischievous and see if he's conflicted by this piece. Because if Ruimy says it, according to Pac, it must be true or in good faith!
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 17, 2022 22:14:42 GMT
I don't give a shit what Ruimy has to say about anything, including this. I mainly posted that since Pacinoyes loves to swear by anything Ruimy dribbles out of his website, and he's pretty invested in Denzel not winning a third Oscar. So, I thought I'd be a bit mischievous and see if he's conflicted by this piece. Because if Ruimy says it, according to Pac, it must be true or in good faith! Well.....like Ruimy said "So, it’s still Cumberbatch vs Smith" so yeah I thought that much was true at least .....yes. Thanks for asking for my opinion.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 17, 2022 22:24:57 GMT
Denzel is always a threat but if you’re playing Macbeth you’d better win something before the Oscars to have some real chance.
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2022 22:28:25 GMT
Not generally a fan of this source (some horribly inaccurate "scoops" recently), but a few here (you know who you are.lol!) swear by them. World Of Reel claiming Denzel's performance has been going down gangbusters at industry screenings and is a serious threat to win the Oscar. www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/1/ctc43i7tl5tuc1gewhhiuzjkjg6el6Smith oddly isn't doing much campaigning either as the article points out. Which seems incredibly strange for someone like him who has built his career on self-promotion .He was talking too much really early in the season (no one needed to hear about his sex life or how Jada wished he was Tupac ). Now he's talking (and doing) too little. I don't think he's undeniable and can just coast his way to a win on minimal effort. If he doesn't start actually working for this Oscar, I think it's there for the taking for Denzel or Cumberbatch. I'm shocked that Will is not campaigning. SHOCKED.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 17, 2022 22:41:43 GMT
Not generally a fan of this source (some horribly inaccurate "scoops" recently), but a few here (you know who you are.lol!) swear by them. World Of Reel claiming Denzel's performance has been going down gangbusters at industry screenings and is a serious threat to win the Oscar. www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/1/ctc43i7tl5tuc1gewhhiuzjkjg6el6Smith oddly isn't doing much campaigning either as the article points out. Which seems incredibly strange for someone like him who has built his career on self-promotion .He was talking too much really early in the season (no one needed to hear about his sex life or how Jada wished he was Tupac ). Now he's talking (and doing) too little. I don't think he's undeniable and can just coast his way to a win on minimal effort. If he doesn't start actually working for this Oscar, I think it's there for the taking for Denzel or Cumberbatch. I'm shocked that Will is not campaigning. SHOCKED. No idea why he isn't campaigning. My only guess is that maybe his team or publicist did some sort of polling and found that Will and Jada's public oversharing of their lives was more likely to be turning off voters than helping him. But it still doesn't make sense to stop campaigning almost entirely. Just keep it focused on the film, the Williams Family, and performance and tell Jada to keep quiet until after the Oscar ceremony. And stop talking about your private life or sex life or open marriage. As I said, Will can definitely win, but he's hardly undeniable enough to do it without campaigning at the latter stages.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 17, 2022 22:51:07 GMT
Not generally a fan of this source (some horribly inaccurate "scoops" recently), but a few here (you know who you are.lol!) swear by them. World Of Reel claiming Denzel's performance has been going down gangbusters at industry screenings and is a serious threat to win the Oscar. www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/1/ctc43i7tl5tuc1gewhhiuzjkjg6el6Smith oddly isn't doing much campaigning either as the article points out. Which seems incredibly strange for someone like him who has built his career on self-promotion .He was talking too much really early in the season (no one needed to hear about his sex life or how Jada wished he was Tupac ). Now he's talking (and doing) too little. I don't think he's undeniable and can just coast his way to a win on minimal effort. If he doesn't start actually working for this Oscar, I think it's there for the taking for Denzel or Cumberbatch. I'm shocked that Will is not campaigning. SHOCKED. I’m guessing he’s being strategically low-key right now and is getting reading to kick his campaign into high gear.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 17, 2022 22:54:33 GMT
Will can be overbearing when he wants to, he must have very good publicists because there’s no way that this low profile isn’t a strategy.
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franklin
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Post by franklin on Jan 18, 2022 12:49:40 GMT
1. Will Smith 2. Benedict Cumberbatch 3. Andrew Garfield 4. Denzel Washington
Fifth spot between DiCaprio and Bardem, and the former has the advantage of being in the second biggest Netflix movie of all time, having a well received superb against type performance, and being in a likely BP nominee.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2022 15:27:13 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 19, 2022 15:28:31 GMT
So is enfant terrible pacinoyes tbh
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Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2022 15:30:26 GMT
The critical passion is definitely there for Cage, but it hasn't translated to the industry. Cage didn't even make the longlist for BAFTA despite being eligible (on another note, Simon Rex was apparently not SAG-eligible, according to some rumblings). I will not be getting my hopes up that he sneaks that fifth slot, but to be fair, all of the other contenders for it have massive red flags as well.
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