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Post by Mattsby on Jan 12, 2022 19:48:07 GMT
Javier Bardem- Being the Ricardos Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick...Boom! Will Smith - King Richard Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of MacbethOkay do we think SAG will match the Oscar lineup? Bardem was probably the #5, no? Lotta claws after that spot.... Leo, Dinklage, Cage, Rex. I know Cage had a really bad day (OK!!!) but I liked Jango's dream and I thought it might happen - Leo getting into SAG and Cage replacing him at the Oscars (after all, Neon has been campaigning high, with all-out Academy screenings). But none of us predicted Bardem and he's really sneaking up. Everybody loves him (and he's my favorite actor under 58y/o so I'm happy???). But you already know who I see lurking, stealing #5 when it matters most...
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franklin
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Post by franklin on Jan 12, 2022 22:24:21 GMT
Sag likes to throw some unexpected choice who has no chance at the Oscars like Bardem, and Dinklage's chances are dead
DLU keeps getting bigger and bigger in terms of audience, to me the final five still are:
1. Will Smith 2. Benedict Cumberbatch 3. Andrew Garfield 4. Denzel Washington 5. Leonardo DiCaprio
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 22:39:29 GMT
Javier Bardem- Being the Ricardos Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick...Boom! Will Smith - King Richard Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of MacbethOkay do we think SAG will match the Oscar lineup? Bardem was probably the #5, no? Lotta claws after that spot.... Leo, Dinklage, Cage, Rex. I know Cage had a really bad day (OK!!!) but I liked Jango's dream and I thought it might happen - Leo getting into SAG and Cage replacing him at the Oscars (after all, Neon has been campaigning high, with all-out Academy screenings). But none of us predicted Bardem and he's really sneaking up. Everybody loves him (and he's my favorite actor under 58y/o so I'm happy???). But you already know who I see lurking, stealing #5 when it matters most... It's going to be an interesting period between now and Oscar nomination morning. DiCaprio should by rights have gotten in here; love for Don't Look Up was at a fever pitch during SAG voting, and for all individual performers to miss shows that maybe they are wising up to another American Hustle situation. Bardem looks very good right now but I dunno, I feel like that performance just screams snub at the final hurdle (see: Bardem in 2012), and I don't yet buy Ricardos holding onto that steam all the way to nomination day. If it does, then it's good news for Kidman but right now Bardem feels shaky. Dinklage, pipe dream. Cage and Rex deserve to be here but they both missed BAFTA longlist and that's a death knell for them as they've had no industry momentum. (Trust me, I wish I were wrong.) I still feel like DiCaprio's got the advantage because I feel like his film will overall do better than Bardem and Dinklage's, but he should have gotten in here.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 12, 2022 22:49:48 GMT
Bardem did play a real life person. And there are surely members of the Academy who knew Desi Arnaz.
If the SAG Actors repeat at Oscars, there will be 3 nominees who are POC. Same as last year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 13, 2022 3:35:31 GMT
Sticking with Leo for the 5th slot for now. The Bardem SAG nod does make things interesting though.
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2022 22:25:57 GMT
That 5th slot is a tough one, I would vote for Craig, to be honest.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 13, 2022 22:45:22 GMT
That 5th slot is a tough one, I would vote for Craig, to be honest. I'm not even counting out a BAFTA nod for Craig lol. It's something that they could do.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 13, 2022 22:56:53 GMT
I dunno man, on some level - the worlds biggest movie star, in a film they like, that's plenty showy and that got nominated for ensemble .......it seems like a trap but if I didn't pick DiCap here it would be closer to willful disobedience I know he missed but.......all those guys seem too weak .......I've seen them all except Dinklage and unless he's a late comer...... 1 Smith 2 Cumbydammit 3 Garfield 4 Washington 5 DiCaprio
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 13, 2022 23:01:48 GMT
I think if Kidman is really winning Actress, Bardem should get a Best Actor nod.
SAG loves Leo, they even nominated him for J. Edgar, and the movie peaked during voting time. The snub is weird.
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Post by stephen on Jan 14, 2022 0:36:06 GMT
I think if Kidman is really winning Actress, Bardem should get a Best Actor nod. SAG loves Leo, they even nominated him for J. Edgar, and the movie peaked during voting time. The snub is weird. The DiCaprio snub is still very puzzling to me. They adore him, as you said. Is the industry as fed up with McKay's bullshit as the critics? It makes sense to nominate it for Ensemble because 98% of SAG is in the movie, but DiCaprio was getting raved even by people who didn't like the movie. I genuinely have no idea what to do with him, because I doubt BAFTA will shed any light on that, but I also don't buy Bardem or Dinklage.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 14, 2022 2:36:50 GMT
If DiCaprio doesn’t get nominated then I really hope that Dinklage gets the last spot strictly on the fact that it’d be an awesome accomplishment for him.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2022 4:52:13 GMT
I think if Kidman is really winning Actress, Bardem should get a Best Actor nod. SAG loves Leo, they even nominated him for J. Edgar, and the movie peaked during voting time. The snub is weird. The DiCaprio snub is still very puzzling to me. They adore him, as you said. Is the industry as fed up with McKay's bullshit as the critics? It makes sense to nominate it for Ensemble because 98% of SAG is in the movie, but DiCaprio was getting raved even by people who didn't like the movie. I genuinely have no idea what to do with him, because I doubt BAFTA will shed any light on that, but I also don't buy Bardem or Dinklage. I’m probably crazy, but this is why I could see a big surprise like Cage, Nishijima, Rex, or someone else.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 14, 2022 13:38:51 GMT
The DiCaprio snub is still very puzzling to me. They adore him, as you said. Is the industry as fed up with McKay's bullshit as the critics? It makes sense to nominate it for Ensemble because 98% of SAG is in the movie, but DiCaprio was getting raved even by people who didn't like the movie. I genuinely have no idea what to do with him, because I doubt BAFTA will shed any light on that, but I also don't buy Bardem or Dinklage. I’m probably crazy, but this is why I could see a big surprise like Cage, Nishijima, Rex, or someone else. Yes, like I said, bot the male categories seem ripe for an out of left field nominee.
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Post by stephen on Jan 14, 2022 13:51:07 GMT
I’m probably crazy, but this is why I could see a big surprise like Cage, Nishijima, Rex, or someone else. Yes, like I said, bot the male categories seem ripe for an out of left field nominee. I really hope so.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 14, 2022 14:20:28 GMT
Dinklage doesn’t strike me as a passion pick, I’d say Rex and Cage have more of a chance, though very slim.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 14, 2022 19:25:30 GMT
I feel like Dinklage needed the SAG nod a lot more than Dicaprio did since his film isn't doing anything outside of him. I'm predicting Dicaprio right now for the fifth spot simply because his movie is the most talked about non spiderman movie in the world. Then I think Bardem is also above Dinklage right now too.
I think if there is a surprise passion nod it's more likely to be Nishijima than Cage or Rex since I think Drive My Car might overperform.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2022 19:04:52 GMT
Fuck it, I’m not going to get everything right anyways so I’m going down on the Cage ship.
Will Smith Andrew Garfield Benedict Cumberbatch Denzel Washington Nicholas Cage
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2022 19:27:17 GMT
1. Will Smith - NBR and Globe win. Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 2. Benedict Cumberbatch - NY win. Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. 3. Andrew Garfield - Globe win. Nominated at the Critics Choice and SAG. 4. Denzel Washington - Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG. 5. Peter Dinklage - Nominated at the Globes and Critics Choice. Won Detroit.
6. Javier Bardem - Nominated at Globes and SAG. 7. Mahershala Ali - Nominated at the Globes for Drama. BAFTA long list. 8. Leonardo Dicaprio & Cooper Hoffman - Nominated at the Globes for Comedy/Musical. BAFTA long list. 10. Adam Driver - SAG Ensemble nominee and BAFTA long list. DARK HORSE LAND - Nicolas Cage, Anthony Ramos, Simon Rex, and Joaquin Phoenix
The first three are pretty much locks at this point. Dinklage and Bardem are neck-and-neck with me. I would like to see Bardem win a critics circle award.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 15, 2022 20:01:35 GMT
I don't know, the thing with SAG is that they almost always disagree with the Academy. I know they're a significant precursor and all, and Dinklage and DiCaprio both needed that slot, but I still don't know that I buy Bardem as anything more than another SAG fluke. Yes he got the GG-nom but he wasn't up against Garfield, DiCaprio or Dinklage in that category. I'm still going with DiCaprio or Dinklage for that 5th slot. DiCaprio missing SAG was even bigger than Dinklage missing because of his star power and his film's high profile, and I was also pegging him as potential Globe winner too and that didn't happen. All signs are indicating that he's slipping, but the performance is undeniable. It's funny, it's chaotic and dramatic, and I can't imagine anyone watching his Mad as Hell moment and not including him in their ballot. And the movie is so buzzy. Lots of people are seeing it and that helps DiCaprio immensely. Dinklage keeps showing up in places, his only important miss being SAG. But his film doesn't go wide until well into February and there's practically no buzz for it. Apart from some purchase in costume/production design, Dinklage is its only chance for a nomination and Universal totally botched the release. Still think he has a great narrative and good will but I'm thinking not enough to overcome the disadvantages. so I guess for now I'm going with Dicaprio for that 5th slot. but just watch it end up being Bardem
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2022 20:09:00 GMT
I don't know, the thing with SAG is that they almost always disagree with the Academy. I know they're a significant precursor and all, and Dinklage and DiCaprio both needed that slot, but I still don't know that I buy Bardem as anything more than another SAG fluke. Yes he got the GG-nom but he wasn't up against Garfield, DiCaprio or Dinklage in that category. I'm still going with DiCaprio or Dinklage for that 5th slot. DiCaprio missing SAG was even bigger than Dinklage missing because of his star power and his film's high profile, and I was also pegging him as potential Globe winner too and that didn't happen. All signs are indicating that he's slipping, but the performance is undeniable. It's funny, it's chaotic and dramatic, and I can't imagine anyone watching his Mad as Hell moment and not including him in their ballot. And the movie is so buzzy. Lots of people are seeing it and that helps DiCaprio immensely. Dinklage keeps showing up in places, his only important miss being SAG. But his film doesn't go wide until well into February and there's practically no buzz for it. Apart from some purchase in costume/production design, Dinklage is its only chance for a nomination and Universal totally botched the release. Still think he has a great narrative and good will but I'm thinking not enough to overcome the disadvantages.so I guess for now I'm going with Dicaprio for that 5th slot. but just watch it end up being Bardem This is mainly why I think Dinklage is going to miss. Really not sure why this isn’t releasing wide in Jan.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 15, 2022 20:45:33 GMT
I don't know, the thing with SAG is that they almost always disagree with the Academy. I know they're a significant precursor and all, and Dinklage and DiCaprio both needed that slot, but I still don't know that I buy Bardem as anything more than another SAG fluke. Yes he got the GG-nom but he wasn't up against Garfield, DiCaprio or Dinklage in that category. I'm still going with DiCaprio or Dinklage for that 5th slot. DiCaprio missing SAG was even bigger than Dinklage missing because of his star power and his film's high profile, and I was also pegging him as potential Globe winner too and that didn't happen. All signs are indicating that he's slipping, but the performance is undeniable. It's funny, it's chaotic and dramatic, and I can't imagine anyone watching his Mad as Hell moment and not including him in their ballot. And the movie is so buzzy. Lots of people are seeing it and that helps DiCaprio immensely. Dinklage keeps showing up in places, his only important miss being SAG. But his film doesn't go wide until well into February and there's practically no buzz for it. Apart from some purchase in costume/production design, Dinklage is its only chance for a nomination and Universal totally botched the release. Still think he has a great narrative and good will but I'm thinking not enough to overcome the disadvantages.so I guess for now I'm going with Dicaprio for that 5th slot. but just watch it end up being Bardem This is mainly why I think Dinklage is going to miss. Really not sure why this isn’t releasing wide in Jan. MGM did a great job with House of Gucci and Licorice Pizza, but maybe it’s harder to sell a musical with Peter Dinklage as the biggest star. I don’t know I think they could have did a platform release at Christmas, but then I think about West Side Story bombing, No Way Home, and the new COVID variant, and I can see why MGM moved it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2022 22:32:33 GMT
1. Will Smith - NBR and Globe win. Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 2. Benedict Cumberbatch - NY win. Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. 3. Andrew Garfield - Globe win. Nominated at the Critics Choice and SAG. 4. Denzel Washington - Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG. 5. Peter Dinklage - Nominated at the Globes and Critics Choice. Won Detroit. 6. Javier Bardem - Nominated at Globes and SAG. 7. Mahershala Ali - Nominated at the Globes for Drama. BAFTA long list. 8. Leonardo Dicaprio & Cooper Hoffman - Nominated at the Globes for Comedy/Musical. BAFTA long list. 10. Adam Driver - SAG Ensemble nominee and BAFTA long list. DARK HORSE LAND - Nicolas Cage, Anthony Ramos, Simon Rex, and Joaquin Phoenix The first three are pretty much locks at this point. Dinklage and Bardem are neck-and-neck with me. I would like to see Bardem win a critics circle award. I have so many questions. How is Dinklage making it? How is Ali above Leo? How is Cage below Driver and Hoffman???
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Post by JangoB on Jan 15, 2022 22:33:55 GMT
1. Will Smith - NBR and Globe win. Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 2. Benedict Cumberbatch - NY win. Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. 3. Andrew Garfield - Globe win. Nominated at the Critics Choice and SAG. 4. Denzel Washington - Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG. 5. Peter Dinklage - Nominated at the Globes and Critics Choice. Won Detroit. 6. Javier Bardem - Nominated at Globes and SAG. 7. Mahershala Ali - Nominated at the Globes for Drama. BAFTA long list. 8. Leonardo Dicaprio & Cooper Hoffman - Nominated at the Globes for Comedy/Musical. BAFTA long list. 10. Adam Driver - SAG Ensemble nominee and BAFTA long list. DARK HORSE LAND - Nicolas Cage, Anthony Ramos, Simon Rex, and Joaquin Phoenix The first three are pretty much locks at this point. Dinklage and Bardem are neck-and-neck with me. I would like to see Bardem win a critics circle award. I have so many questions. How is Dinklage making it? How is Ali above Leo? How is Cage below Driver and Hoffman??? He puts a bit too much stock in dry precursor statistics while there're plenty of other components to consider.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2022 22:37:16 GMT
I have so many questions. How is Dinklage making it? How is Ali above Leo? How is Cage below Driver and Hoffman??? He puts a bit too much stock in dry precursor statistics while there're plenty of other components to consider. Wasn't gonna say it but....yeah.
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2022 23:21:51 GMT
He puts a bit too much stock in dry precursor statistics while there're plenty of other components to consider. Wasn't gonna say it but....yeah. Stats are great to have as a resource but they really shouldn't be taken as gospel. Every individual race has nuance and texture. Especially as the last decade has had a stat get shattered every year.
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