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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 15, 2022 23:29:32 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand)
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2022 23:31:37 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) I actually was thinking Garfield could be that guy winning SAG and then the Oscar over Smith.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 15, 2022 23:32:52 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) I actually was thinking Garfield could be that guy winning SAG and then the Oscar over Smith. Also possible. Could see him pulling a Redmayne. Garfield is very popular. I’m just thinking Cumberbatch since the academy has been pretty high brow and critics friendly lately.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 15, 2022 23:34:48 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) I actually was thinking Garfield could be that guy winning SAG and then the Oscar over Smith. Yeah I was thinking that myself. He's becoming a huge threat a come-from-behind win.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 15, 2022 23:38:12 GMT
1. Will Smith - NBR and Globe win. Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 2. Benedict Cumberbatch - NY win. Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. 3. Andrew Garfield - Globe win. Nominated at the Critics Choice and SAG. 4. Denzel Washington - Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG. 5. Peter Dinklage - Nominated at the Globes and Critics Choice. Won Detroit. 6. Javier Bardem - Nominated at Globes and SAG. 7. Mahershala Ali - Nominated at the Globes for Drama. BAFTA long list. 8. Leonardo Dicaprio & Cooper Hoffman - Nominated at the Globes for Comedy/Musical. BAFTA long list. 10. Adam Driver - SAG Ensemble nominee and BAFTA long list. DARK HORSE LAND - Nicolas Cage, Anthony Ramos, Simon Rex, and Joaquin Phoenix The first three are pretty much locks at this point. Dinklage and Bardem are neck-and-neck with me. I would like to see Bardem win a critics circle award. I have so many questions. How is Dinklage making it? How is Ali above Leo? How is Cage below Driver and Hoffman??? Uhh...he won Detroit. Come on that's a guaranteed nomination right there.
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2022 23:46:56 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) It's very possible, but I feel like we do also have to take into account the Academy's penchant of late for spreading the wealth, and with Kodi Smit-McPhee solidifying himself as the one to beat, I do feel like that could hurt Cumberbatch in the long run. I'd actually feel better about his winning chances if Smit-McPhee weren't the frontrunner, funnily enough.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 15, 2022 23:53:28 GMT
I actually was thinking Garfield could be that guy winning SAG and then the Oscar over Smith. Yeah I was thinking that myself. He's becoming a huge threat a come-from-behind win.I mentioned this in a thread a while back - I have never seen a performance irl that resonates more with female audiences specifically than Garfield here. I don't mean that they think he's sexy or some BS but that they are responding to the performance to an amazing degree .........
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 15, 2022 23:55:51 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) It's very possible, but I feel like we do also have to take into account the Academy's penchant of late for spreading the wealth, and with Kodi Smit-McPhee solidifying himself as the one to beat, I do feel like that could hurt Cumberbatch in the long run. I'd actually feel better about his winning chances if Smit-McPhee weren't the frontrunner, funnily enough. We could see a swerve though in how that wealth is spread, as maybe Cumberbatch does win, and Kotsur becomes the supporting actor winner instead (given CODA's ensemble nod the support seems to be there). Right now our presumptions on frontrunners are based on critics and the Globes.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 15, 2022 23:57:24 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) I don't think AMPAS will be that generous to give TPOTD - Actor, in addition to Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay and possibly Picture.
The critics favorite usually doesn't go on to win Best Actor.
King Richard will be a Best Picture nominee - unlike Creed, The Wife, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
Will Smith will only be the 5th African American actor to win Best Actor. #Overdue.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2022 23:58:31 GMT
It's very possible, but I feel like we do also have to take into account the Academy's penchant of late for spreading the wealth, and with Kodi Smit-McPhee solidifying himself as the one to beat, I do feel like that could hurt Cumberbatch in the long run. I'd actually feel better about his winning chances if Smit-McPhee weren't the frontrunner, funnily enough. We could see a swerve though in how that wealth is spread, as maybe Cumberbatch does win, and Kotsur becomes the supporting actor winner instead (given CODA's ensemble nod the support seems to be there). Right now our presumptions on frontrunners are based on critics and the Globes. I think Kotsur or someone else has a decent chance of winning regardless.
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Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2022 0:00:21 GMT
It's very possible, but I feel like we do also have to take into account the Academy's penchant of late for spreading the wealth, and with Kodi Smit-McPhee solidifying himself as the one to beat, I do feel like that could hurt Cumberbatch in the long run. I'd actually feel better about his winning chances if Smit-McPhee weren't the frontrunner, funnily enough. We could see a swerve though in how that wealth is spread, as maybe Cumberbatch does win, and Kotsur becomes the supporting actor winner instead (given CODA's ensemble nod the support seems to be there). Right now our presumptions on frontrunners are based on critics and the Globes. This is all very true, but I feel like Kodi Smit-McPhee winning the Golden Globe shows that he has enough muscle with the populists as well as the critics, as it feels like that's the awards body he'd have had the hardest time swaying to his side.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 0:01:55 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) I don't think AMPAS will be that generous to give TPOTD - Actor, in addition to Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay and possibly Picture.
The critics favorite usually doesn't go on to win Best Actor.
King Richard will be a Best Picture nominee - unlike Creed, The Wife, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
Will Smith will only be the 5th African American actor to win Best Actor - in a year when the first winner, Sidney Poitier passes away. #Historic.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 16, 2022 1:07:50 GMT
1. Will Smith - NBR and Globe win. Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 2. Benedict Cumberbatch - NY win. Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. 3. Andrew Garfield - Globe win. Nominated at the Critics Choice and SAG. 4. Denzel Washington - Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG. 5. Peter Dinklage - Nominated at the Globes and Critics Choice. Won Detroit. 6. Javier Bardem - Nominated at Globes and SAG. 7. Mahershala Ali - Nominated at the Globes for Drama. BAFTA long list. 8. Leonardo Dicaprio & Cooper Hoffman - Nominated at the Globes for Comedy/Musical. BAFTA long list. 10. Adam Driver - SAG Ensemble nominee and BAFTA long list. DARK HORSE LAND - Nicolas Cage, Anthony Ramos, Simon Rex, and Joaquin Phoenix The first three are pretty much locks at this point. Dinklage and Bardem are neck-and-neck with me. I would like to see Bardem win a critics circle award. I have so many questions. How is Dinklage making it? How is Ali above Leo? How is Cage below Driver and Hoffman??? I am happy to answer your questions. Both Bardem and Dinklage have 2 out of the 4 major acting precursors. I only use critics circle awards as tiebreakers. Dinklage has the slight lead due to actually winning a critics circle award. Grant it, it is Detroit, but it is something.
If you look at the past Best Actor nominees, between 3 to 4 came from Globe Best Drama pool. Most of the time, it is 4 in recent years.
We really haven't seen Leo getting anything major beyond Globe Comedy/Musical, which I always view as the weaker of the acting categories.
Cage's film isn't getting any love besides the Critics Choice awards. Driver is attached to House of Gucci. Hoffman is attached to Licorice Pizza.
If Bardem gets the BAFTA and Dinklage does not, then Bardem is obviously the pick.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 16, 2022 1:11:47 GMT
I mentioned this in a thread a while back - I have never seen a performance irl that resonates more with female audiences specifically than Garfield here.I don't mean that they think he's sexy or some BS but that they are responding to the performance to an amazing degree ......... the grooming, style and flamboyance of a gay man with the availability of a straight one
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 16, 2022 3:08:41 GMT
I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) It's very possible, but I feel like we do also have to take into account the Academy's penchant of late for spreading the wealth, and with Kodi Smit-McPhee solidifying himself as the one to beat, I do feel like that could hurt Cumberbatch in the long run. I'd actually feel better about his winning chances if Smit-McPhee weren't the frontrunner, funnily enough. 3 Billboards won two acting awards only 4 years ago and was arguably less of a contender to BP than Power of the Dog. Since then, no movie arrived with a real chance except for Ma Rainey's, which wasn't even a BP nominee. Plus, McPhee is by no means unbeatable. I’m starting to feel Cumberbatch being the guy who sweeps in late and wins the Bafta and Oscar from the supposed front runner. (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins, McDormand) The critics favorite usually doesn't go on to win Best Actor. You mean, apart from last year, against a much stronger front-runner? Plus, Power of the Dog is by no means a lock for any other category. It's entirely plausible only Cumberbatch wins. Wasn't gonna say it but....yeah. Stats are great to have as a resource but they really shouldn't be taken as gospel. Every individual race has nuance and texture. Especially as the last decade has had a stat get shattered every year. I wonder which statistic indicated Stansfield being nominated for supporting actor last year.
See also the Globes being treated as an indispensable precursor or proof of anything when only last year the Best Supporting Actress winner wasn't even nominated there- and also got BAFTA and SAG, and that was before all the scandals and the lack of TV coverage. It's not a science, and some people treat it as such.
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Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2022 3:24:51 GMT
It's very possible, but I feel like we do also have to take into account the Academy's penchant of late for spreading the wealth, and with Kodi Smit-McPhee solidifying himself as the one to beat, I do feel like that could hurt Cumberbatch in the long run. I'd actually feel better about his winning chances if Smit-McPhee weren't the frontrunner, funnily enough. 3 Billboards won two acting awards only 4 years ago and was arguably less of a contender to BP than Power of the Dog. Since then, no movie arrived with a real chance except for Ma Rainey's, which wasn't even a BP nominee. Plus, McPhee is by no means unbeatable. Two acting awards and nothing else. 2017 was the very definition of spreading the love: Picture/Director went to one film, Actor went to another, Actress/Supporting Actor went to one, Supporting Actress another, and Original and Adapted Screenplay all went to different films as well. We haven't seen big sweeps in a while, and since 2008 (the year before the BP expansion), those that win 6+ Oscars rarely have taken acting prizes ( Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker, Gravity, Mad Max: Fury Road). La La Land is the big exception there. I'm not calling Smit-McPhee unbeatable, but he is nevertheless shaping up as the favorite. His only real major threat right now is Troy Kotsur, who is even more of an unknown, and who really could do with a CODA overperformance and who really needs to win at least one of the big precursors.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 16, 2022 3:54:11 GMT
Would it be really such an absurd breaking of the norm to have, say, Power of the Dog win two acting, plus screenplay? Hell, even BP and BP too. Just because sweeps are not usual with acting awards doesn't mean they can't happen. You just mentioned yourself an example with La La Land. Again, people are putting too much faith in statistics like it's a game.
I also don't see Hinds missing SAG as a killing blow as long as he takes BAFTA and the Academy likes Belfast as much as most are expecting, though of course it made his chances much smaller. This category is very unusual this year because there's neither big stars nor roles that are obvious winners.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 16, 2022 4:39:54 GMT
3 Billboards won two acting awards only 4 years ago and was arguably less of a contender to BP than Power of the Dog. Since then, no movie arrived with a real chance except for Ma Rainey's, which wasn't even a BP nominee. Plus, McPhee is by no means unbeatable. Two acting awards and nothing else. 2017 was the very definition of spreading the love: Picture/Director went to one film, Actor went to another, Actress/Supporting Actor went to one, Supporting Actress another, and Original and Adapted Screenplay all went to different films as well. We haven't seen big sweeps in a while, and since 2008 (the year before the BP expansion), those that win 6+ Oscars rarely have taken acting prizes ( Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker, Gravity, Mad Max: Fury Road). La La Land is the big exception there. I'm not calling Smit-McPhee unbeatable, but he is nevertheless shaping up as the favorite. His only real major threat right now is Troy Kotsur, who is even more of an unknown, and who really could do with a CODA overperformance and who really needs to win at least one of the big precursors. I don’t really buy into the train of thought of a movie being too successful and that hurting an actors chances. I don’t think an Oscar voter is looking at his ballot thinking “Benedict is my favorite performance in this category but I think Kodi is winning so nah” I honestly think they probably don’t know nearly as well as people like us do who is even going to win. I’ve read enough interviews and secret ballots that make me believe they care far less about this stuff than we do and generally very busy people. I think the recent trend of spreading the wealth probably has more to do with the movies themselves than some kind of “spread the wealth” mentality when people are filling out their ballots. I think it’s probable that Cumberbatch doesn’t win, I can definitely see it happening, I just don’t think that is the reason why. If he loses to Smith or Garfield it will be because of them loving Smith or Garfield not because of Kofi Smit Mcphee.
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Post by franklin on Jan 16, 2022 7:23:52 GMT
Nicolas Cage didn't even get the independent Spirit nomination, just saying.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 16, 2022 19:03:21 GMT
Denzel peaking at the right time? I'd love it if after all this chatter about Smith, Cumberbatch or Garfield winning, Denzel swoops in like a vulture to claim his 3rd Oscar . I can definitely see Denzel upsetting the odds winning at SAG. Actors worship the ground he walks on. And now his performance has been widely seen on AppleTV this weekend, the social media chatter about how great his performance is has been pretty loud.
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Post by quetee on Jan 16, 2022 19:11:30 GMT
Denzel peaking at the right time? I'd love it if after all this chatter about Smith, Cumberbatch or Garfield winning, Denzel swoops in like a vulture to claim his 3rd Oscar . I can definitely see Denzel upsetting the odds winning at SAG. Actors worship the ground he walks on. And now his performance has been widely seen on AppleTV this weekend, the social media chatter about how great his performance is has been pretty loud. Hmmm could be. I checked out runner ups: Benedict and Andrew.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 16, 2022 19:18:35 GMT
Denzel peaking at the right time? I'd love it if after all this chatter about Smith, Cumberbatch or Garfield winning, Denzel swoops in like a vulture to claim his 3rd Oscar . I can definitely see Denzel upsetting the odds winning at SAG. Actors worship the ground he walks on. And now his performance has been widely seen on AppleTV this weekend, the social media chatter about how great his performance is has been pretty loud. Hmmm could be. I checked out runner ups: Benedict and Andrew. Yeah, I think what (among other things) was probably holding Denzel back in the critics awards phase was his performance wasn't widely seen enough to know how strongly people would feel about it. So critics awards went with the easy hive mind choices that everyone had already seen (plus Shakespeare is actually never easy to win acting prizes with critics in the last few decades. It's respected, but kept at a distance. Kenneth Branagh, seen by most as the premiere Shakespearan screen actors of his generation has never actually won a critics prize for any of his Shakespeare performances. Not even the one he was Oscar nominated for). Now that basically everyone has the opportunity to see The Tragedy Of Macbeth, that theoretical Denzel Surge may actually be a thing.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 16, 2022 19:23:25 GMT
While a surge isn’t out the realm of possibility I think Denzel will still have a pretty hard time winning sag just because of the expanded membership. I think it hurts a bit to have the added members that probably don’t appreciate the craft as much. Think he’s probably in 4th tbh but we’ll see.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 16, 2022 19:30:16 GMT
While a surge isn’t out the realm of possibility I think Denzel will still have a pretty hard time winning sag just because of the expanded membership. I think it hurts a bit to have the added members that probably don’t appreciate the craft as much. Think he’s probably in 4th tbh but we’ll see. I find it difficult to believe Denzel as Macbeth in one of the best reviewed performances of his career is behind Andrew Garfield in a Lin Miranda Manuel theatre geek musical. Yes, Garfield has won more critics prizes , Film Twitter loves him and he won the Musical Comedy Golden Globe (irrelevant, since most of his competition at the Oscars aren't in that category). But when it comes to the actual Oscars, I can't see Garfield ever getting more votes than Denzel. Just by my notion of how the Oscars work (Garfield is simply not the kind of performance they would ever give Best Actor to, despite the Film Twitter hype). Just can't. So I think Denzel is probably minimum in 3rd right now, and in the best position to surge to be win competitive, because his performance feels fresh and new due to it's release date, while the others have been widely seen for awhile.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 16, 2022 19:33:55 GMT
While a surge isn’t out the realm of possibility I think Denzel will still have a pretty hard time winning sag just because of the expanded membership. I think it hurts a bit to have the added members that probably don’t appreciate the craft as much. Think he’s probably in 4th tbh but we’ll see. I find it difficult to believe Denzel as Macbeth is behind Andrew Garfield in a Lin Miranda Manuel theatre geek musical. Yes, Garfield has won more critics prizes , Film Twitter loves him and he won the Musical Comedy Golden Globe (irrelevant, since most of his competition at the Oscars aren't in that category). Buy when it comes to the actual Oscars, I can't see Garfield ever getting more votes than Denzel. Just by my notion of how the Oscars work (Garfield is simply not the kind of performance they would ever give Best Actor to, despite the Film Twitter hype). Just can't. For me personally he definitely is not. For SAG I think he is because it trends a bit more populist. If Garfields pulls off SAG I think that would then catapult him. In the end though I don’t think Smith gets overtaken.
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