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Post by franklin on Jul 5, 2021 10:05:01 GMT
I thought to do a separate thread for predictions in Best Actor.
I'll start with what I believe are the safest predictions in the top 5 right now:
1. Will Smith (King Richard)
2. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
3. Adam Driver (Annette/ House of Gucci)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up)
5. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 5, 2021 10:52:57 GMT
If these 5 are THE top 5 you have a lot of cool history here: * Denzel Washington would go for me, from a roughly top 15 or so American film actor to about 10th - ever - even without comedy or filmography (that's true...... Denzel-wackadoodles  ) - that's a huge deal and to me a significant jump over all his generational rivals - Hanks, Bridges, Dafoe - he'd be only the 2nd American male ever nominated for a Shakespearean role ............and the first in like 70 years (since Brando)........it would be an undeniable feat. * DiCaprio would be a nominee for 4 films IN A ROW  which I think only Brando, Pacino, William Hurt have done (?) with 3 in a row before.....and he would have a case right now over Phoenix for best of his generation .......or even higher than just that.....that's an undeniable statistic too. That would be 7 nods, 4 in a row at 47 (turns 47 in Nov) - a lot of people would put him in the top 10 too..... Now, having said that ........ Bradley Cooper just isn't missing  ...........unless that movie is a total botch - I said this before in Supporting it might not be Jesse Plemons it could be - going by the book at least - Kodi Smit-McPhee in the same movie instead......well just like that Blanchett or whomever in Nightmare Alley would be very hard to imagine in any way without Cooper - again going by the book at least.......I'd put Cooper at 1 or 2 sight unseen atm..... 1. Will Smith (King Richard)
2. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
3. Adam Driver (Annette/ House of Gucci)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up)
5. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 5, 2021 11:03:41 GMT
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
HM:
Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan
EDIT: Bale is out.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 5, 2021 11:39:17 GMT
Zel and Driver are the front runners for me atm.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 5, 2021 11:45:38 GMT
1 The GOAT 🐐 in The Tragedy Of Macbeth (don't know about the win, but he's such an Academy favorite that when he is doing such an obvious prestige level stretch (with Joel Coen and Frances McDormand no less) it's hard to see him missing the nomination.
2 Bradley Cooper-Nightmare Alley. As per usual, if the film is a BP contender, Cooper will probably carried along with it. If the film disappoints, I don't think he will necessarily have the juice with the Academy to get in just based on his performance (if it is good), but you never know. But Del Toro is pretty reliable, so I think it will be a contender.
3 Michael B Jordan- Journal For Jordan. Feels overdue for his first nomination, and I don't see a line-up with no newbies and just veteran former nominees. Baity biopic role on paper, and guided by a great director of actors.
4 Christian Bale- Canterbury Glass. Very well liked by the Academy, in a seemingly prestigious period drama. Film will have to whiff pretty badly for him to not be in contention
5 Adam Driver- House Of Gucci- Been on a good awards run in recent years and the Academy likes him. Could get in if the film doesn't whiff, but Ridley Scott is so inconsistent that there is a high probability that it will.
Not yet sold on Leonardo DiCaprio, as the premise for his film doesn't seem like a slam-dunk for the Academy, despite all the baity names attached and his role sounds lighter than usual, but I'm open to changing my thoughts the more we see and as the film is reviewed. He's an Academy perennial at this point, so can't be counted out.
Will Smith...he's getting some early hype as a potential winner, but he's had so many failed Oscarbaits, that I won't be convinced that this won't be another one till it's out and reviewed (doesn't help that he looks nothing like the real Richard Williams, and Williams is famous enough for that comparison to be a distraction). But obviously if it does work out this time, I'd probably move him into the top 3.
Benedict Cumberbatch ....still a respected auteur, but Jane Campion hasn't factored much with the Academy in decades, so I feel like he may be being a bit overpredicted at the moment, though again it's all early and I could be completely wrong.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 5, 2021 11:49:46 GMT
Zel and Driver are the front runners for me atm. yes, but if we are talking House Of Gucci, Ridley Scott is no longer reliable enough for anyone to be a sight unseen Best Actor frontrunner in one of his pictures . Scott is the definition of "hit or miss". If this one is another Scott miss, Driver won't even sniff a nomination (and I'm currently predicting him). |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 5, 2021 11:59:47 GMT
1 The GOAT 🐐 in The Tragedy Of Macbeth (don't know about the win, but he's such an Academy favorite that when he is doing such an obvious prestige level stretch (with Joel Coen and Frances McDormand no less) it's hard to see him missing the nomination. 2 Bradley Cooper-Nightmare Alley. As per usual, if the film is a BP contender, Cooper will probably carried along with it. If the film disappoints, I don't think he will necessarily have the juice with the Academy to get in just based on his performance (if it is good), but you never know. But Del Toro is pretty reliable, so I think it will be a contender. 3 Michael B Jordan- Journal For Jordan. Feels overdue for his first nomination, and I don't see a line-up with no newbies and just veteran former nominees. Baity biopic role on paper, and guided by a great director of actors. 4 Christian Bale- Canterbury Glass. Very well liked by the Academy, in a seemingly prestigious period drama. Film will have to whiff pretty badly for him to not be in contention 5 Adam Driver- House Of Gucci- Been on a good awards run in recent years and the Academy likes him. Could get in if the film doesn't whiff, but Ridley Scott is so inconsistent that there is a high probability that it will. Not yet sold on Leonardo DiCaprio, as the premise for his film doesn't seem like a slam-dunk for the Academy, despite all the baity names attached and his role sounds lighter than usual, but I'm open to changing my thoughts the more we see and as the film is reviewed. He's an Academy perennial at this point, so can't be counted out. Will Smith...he's getting some early hype as a potential winner, but he's had so many failed Oscarbaits, that I won't be convinced that this won't be another one till it's out and reviewed (doesn't help that he looks nothing like the real Richard Williams, and Williams is famous enough for that comparison to be a distraction). But obviously if it does work out this time, I'd probably move him into the top 3. Benedict Cumberbatch ....still a respected auteur, but Jane Campion hasn't factored much with the Academy in decades, so I feel like he may be being a bit overpredicted at the moment, though again it's all early and I could be completely wrong. In regards to Cumberbatch, word on the street is that Netflix feels like The Power of the Dog is a major player. Top 2 priority kind of contender. Still a long way to go though of course. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 5, 2021 12:19:17 GMT
In regards to Cumberbatch, word on the street is that Netflix feels like The Power of the Dog is a major player. Top 2 priority kind of contender. Still a long way to go though of course. ...........and It's a Daniel Plainview in TWBB level character almost .......though less dominant it's one of the best written characters I've read in a book in a long time.......and Cumberbatch who has been the best actor on TV for a while now has been waiting for a role like this in movies too......the problem is you can tweak the POV to be from the eyes of Dunst - specifically which reduces him to a mere side villain...........like I said in the Best Supporting Actor thread............ it's which book did Campion actually film .... if she does a straight adaptation it's basically unfnckuppable......... |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 5, 2021 12:37:47 GMT
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth - Even though Shakespearean adaptations have fallen out of favor, I think this one will live up to the hype around it. Plus I could see him actually winning BAFTA or at least being nominated for it this year.
2. Will Smith. King Richard - I think he really needed the Globes to still be around. He could still win, but iI can see BAFTA leaving him out which I think would really hurt his momentum.
3. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley - I don’t know if NA will underperform, but I feel like something surprising will and this fits the bill since it wouldn’t be super surprising to me if the Scott films and Russell film did. I don’t think it will be Don’t Look Up now after the test screenings. It doesn’t necessarily have to happen or be this movie, but at this point there’s still a lot of questions. Still predicting Cooper ans the film, but I wish there was more info,
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up - I don’t see him missing if the buzz is accurate, and it seems to be.
5. Adam Driver, House of Gucci - I think there will be at least one, probably just one actually newbie, but I feel like HoG could be big and Driver will be pulled in since the category is wrapped up so much with Best Picture.
Other Possibilities:
6. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog - On paper he seems a no brainer in some ways. Juicy role, still respected even if his other prestige film projects didn’t quite turn out as imagined, and could possibly win BAFTA which would make him a big threat, but Netflix has got so much again. Not that they won’t be able to balance it, but wins especially in a year where the message could be that going to movies is back, might be tough. Also I’m a bit concerned that Netflix seems to be really high on Tick, Tick Boom!, and I haven’t heard anything yet about this.
7. Christian Bale, Canterbury Glass - Had to be close with Ford v. Ferrari, but I’m still not confident yet in this. Also it was just one person speculating, but it’s possible I suppose that this could get bumped to 2022 depending on how well adult fare does in the fall/winter especially with a new strain of Covid being so prevalent.
8. Michael B. Jordan, Journal for Jordan - I think it’s only a matter of time before his first Oscar nomination, but it could be too stacked this year.
9. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano - I think he can win if it’s Atonement/Pride and Prejudice Joe Wright that shows up, but I think it will be the other Wright that shows up, so I don’t have Dinklage higher.
10. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick Boom! - Another potential nominee who really could have used a boost from the Globes to help him. Possibly a top tier critics favorite, but Washington, Cooper, Dinklage, and Driver could all be in the mix too.
Maybe:
11. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song - Seems very baity, but I’m not sure about Apple. I think they’ll do extremely well next year, and they’ve done well with SAG and the Emmys, but I feel like it could get lost amid all the other potential Oscar fare that’s going to be released.
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins - This could still be big, but previously I had a lot more faith in it. I don’t necessarily think Armie Hammer’s involvement will cause problems as it seems like maybe he wasn’t in it very much, so I could see him being edited out or just ignored during the promotion of it. What gives me pause is that it seems like it’s been ready, but there’s been no news on it going to festivals which feels like a no brainer at least TIFF.
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Post by stephen on Jul 5, 2021 12:55:34 GMT
These are in terms of likelihood for nomination, not necessarily likelihood to win.
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth. The man's at the Streep level of getting buzz on his name alone, and this time he's got Frances McDormand and Joel Coen at his back. Washington rarely gets the opportunity to come in off the back of a strong film; the man's only appeared in two Best Picture nominees in his long and storied career. There is very real potential here that he could get his third win off the back of a strong film (he got close in 2016 doing that). With McDormand having just so recently couped her third acting prize, maybe the narrative shifts firmly towards Washington for an acting award here. He's probably the safest bet here.
2. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley. It's a great role, albeit not one I'd normally associate with Academy love. But Cooper is adored, and this is a massive high-profile film, with Guillermo coming hot off his Best Picture win and Cooper riding high off A Star Is Born and possibly building up a banner year with this and the PTA. The genre of it all is really the only thing that gives me pause, because I feel like Cooper's eventual win will be for something friendlier, but if the critics come out in force for it, the industry might decide to side with Cooper at last.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up. I mean, it's Leo. He's getting attention regardless of the quality of the piece. I don't get winner vibes from the part as described, but I think he's at the point where if he's got a film out, there's a 99% chance he's locked for a nod.
4. Will Smith, King Richard. Early buzz aside, Smith's been hit-and-miss with his awards plays. He did well in the early-to-mid '00s, but everything since then has failed to sniff the Kodak theater. I think there's real potential here, and Smith's phasing into the elder statesman era of his career. But the question is whether it's a winning role, or simply a welcome back nod.
These four seem pretty solid, and it's really the fifth slot that I'm having trouble with.
I'm having trouble buying Journal for Jordan as a solid Academy likelihood (Michael B. Jordan just exudes that "SAG nominee who comes out of nowhere and everyone thinks they're gonna be a thing and then loses out to some late-comer at the end" energy).
Cumberbatch is possible and it looks like The Power of the Dog is gaining buzz with Netflix seemingly favoring it, but I will reserve judgment until we hear more because there is a possibility that the focus of the narrative shifts towards Plemons/Dunst, the hotter commodities these days who have been nipping at the Academy for ages to get that freshman nod. But as pacinoyes says, the role in the book is apparently excellent (I haven't read it), but the Plainview comparison happened before and we got Serena out of it.
Adam Driver -- and this might be controversial here -- is likelier for me to get in for Best Supporting Actor for The Last Duel, playing a real historical bastard. If he can also get in for House of Gucci, I think that just locks him as a possible winner in Supporting Actor.
I have a real feeling (hope?) that Canterbury Glass might be the big miss of the season, partly because I wonder if David O. Russell might get too much controversial buzz. But with all of that aside, I just don't know if I feel confident in it getting the nominations that Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle did. Bale will always be a contender, but I'm just not buying this.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 5, 2021 13:28:25 GMT
Zel and Driver are the front runners for me atm. yes, but if we are talking House Of Gucci, Ridley Scott is no longer reliable enough for anyone to be a sight unseen Best Actor frontrunner in one of his pictures . Scott is the definition of "hit or miss". If this one is another Scott miss, Driver won't even sniff a nomination (and I'm currently predicting him). Scott has two movies that might become awards players. And Driver stars in both. I wouldn't rule him out for a nomination. Scott is a hit or miss, yes but Driver is kind of an Academy favorite. Not saying he's getting a double nod but if one of his two movies is a big player, then he might be the fr for a win. |
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jul 5, 2021 13:36:12 GMT
Zel and Driver are the front runners for me atm. yes, but if we are talking House Of Gucci, Ridley Scott is no longer reliable enough for anyone to be a sight unseen Best Actor frontrunner in one of his pictures . Scott is the definition of "hit or miss". If this one is another Scott miss, Driver won't even sniff a nomination (and I'm currently predicting him). I'm actually currently predicting Driver for the film, but I agree. The Ridley Scott of it all does give me a little pause. House of Gucci feels like something more in his wheelhouse, and All The Money in The World actually got generally positive reviews, even if the Plummer nomination was arguably out of spite for Spacey. The fact that he's apparently making quite a bit of movies in a row, might mean that one of them could turn out to be a real "flub". Hard to say if Gucci is the one, though. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 5, 2021 13:38:22 GMT
Adam Driver
Benedict Cumberbatch
Bradley Cooper
Denzel Washington
Will Smith
Andrew Garfield
Christian Bale
Leonardo DiCaprio
Michael B. Jordan
Peter Dinklage
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 5, 2021 15:01:38 GMT
Zel yes, but if we are talking House Of Gucci, Ridley Scott is no longer reliable enough for anyone to be a sight unseen Best Actor frontrunner in one of his pictures . Scott is the definition of "hit or miss". If this one is another Scott miss, Driver won't even sniff a nomination (and I'm currently predicting him). Scott has two movies that might become awards players. And Driver stars in both. I wouldn't rule him out for a nomination. Scott is a hit or miss, yes but Driver is kind of an Academy favorite. Not saying he's getting a double nod but if one of his two movies is a big player, then he might be the fr for a win. ^ This is exactly right and of course he has a 3rd film with Annette that will at least be a topic of conversation - on paper he looks like the "actor of the year" clearly ........... I mean Ridley Scott might be hit or miss but what ALL of Driver's movies with Scott and Annette have clearly in common is they are films that have potential in other categories for lots of nods overall.......I mean in a few tech categories - Production Design for one - he may be in 3 of the 5 nominees ........ He may get pushed out of actor and into Support but he could as easily get swept up in each movie along with technical noms..... |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 18, 2021 17:30:41 GMT
Variety has done an early list of ranked predictions - some intriguing names waaaaaaaaaaaaay down on this list (and this list ranks 40 (gulp):
1. Smith
2. Cumberbatch
3. Garfield (Tick, Tick, Boom)
4. Dinklage
5. Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)
6. Driver (House of Gucci)
7. Washington
8. Jordan (Journal For Jordan)
9. DiCaprio
10. Cooper
variety.com/feature/2022-oscars-best-actor-predictions-1235020941/ |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 18, 2021 17:48:15 GMT
Not a bad list, actually.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 18, 2021 18:04:44 GMT
Variety has done an early list of ranked predictions - some intriguing names waaaaaaaaaaaaay down on this list (and this list ranks 40 (gulp):
1. Smith
2. Cumberbatch
3. Garfield (Tick, Tick, Boom)
4. Dinklage
5. Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)
6. Driver (House of Gucci)
7. Washington
8. Jordan (Journal For Jordan)
9. DiCaprio
10. Cooper
variety.com/feature/2022-oscars-best-actor-predictions-1235020941/I respect Clayton Davis’s hustle, but I still don’t take him that seriously as an Oscar predictor. This isn’t such a bad top 10 from him although I feel Washington and DiCaprio should be in the top 5. Not sure about Collins Jr. SPC is distributing Jockey, and he would fit the mold of a veteran like Richard Jenkins that was able to breakthrough in Best Actor. Right now there’s only 4 reviews on Metacritic, and it’s sitting at 79 which is really good, so it could go up again or possibly down in which case I think it might be difficult to breakthrough if this year is as stacked as it seems. Maybe NYFCC and/or NSFC come through for him although I have a feeling Washington might win NYFCC for some reason and Simon Rex seems like a cool choice that LAFCA would go with. As for Dinklage, he certainly has enough love/respect that I think if he gets finally gets a juicy role and gets nominated, he could go all the way. Not sure about Joe Wright though. He’s directed performances to nominations and a win, but he can be so uneven. Anyhow Cyrano’s trailer is coming out in September, so maybe that seems like a good sign. So far MGM has been handling Respect very well, so I hope it can continue with the rest of their awards slate. Since Cyrano’s trailer is coming out in September, my logic is thinking that means House of Gucci’s trailer might come out in August then since it comes out a month earlier than Cyrano lol. Seriously though I do hope that it’s far enough in post production that a trailer can come out that soon. |
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Post by franklin on Jul 18, 2021 18:38:33 GMT
Variety has done an early list of ranked predictions - some intriguing names waaaaaaaaaaaaay down on this list (and this list ranks 40 (gulp):
1. Smith
2. Cumberbatch
3. Garfield (Tick, Tick, Boom)
4. Dinklage
5. Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)
6. Driver (House of Gucci)
7. Washington
8. Jordan (Journal For Jordan)
9. DiCaprio
10. Cooper
variety.com/feature/2022-oscars-best-actor-predictions-1235020941/Clayton Davis predictions are as reliable as Fox News. Plus, I think this early predictions from Variety are more about publicity, thus promoting and supporting underseen actors, keeping them in the conversation. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 29, 2021 4:58:07 GMT
OK, revised predictions. 1 Denzel Washington- The Tragedy Of Macbeth . Apparently some festival programmer at Venice didn't like the movie. But then again, apparently Cannes did like it (and didn't get it) and it got a plum premiere spot at the New York Film Festival. So yeah...much ado about nothing for now (hey, a Shakespeare reference ) So it's still in a good spot. Unless reviews come out killing the movie (and I have a hard time seeing critics seriously dinging a black and white Shakespeare production starring two of the most acclaimed American actors in history directed by Joel Coen), Washington remains the frontrunner. If reviews are good, he's probably winning (or at least will be tough to beat). 2 Will Smith - King RichardWasn't in my last top 5, as I needed to see something with my own eyes. The trailer dropped, and while it may look pretty mainstream and for some, "basic", it looks pretty damned entertaining and Smith looked good enough He'll be hurt by the Golden Globes being out of commission this coming season, because this looks like something they'd go for, while I don't really see this as a big player with critics groups etc. 3 Bradley Cooper- Same reasons as last time, but Smith looking competitive has pushed him down a spot. 4 Michael B Jordan- Journal For Jordan
Same reasons as last time. Don't think it'll be all vets, and he seems ready for his Oscar breakthrough 5 Leonardo DiCaprio- Don't Look Up
Now into my top 5 because Canterbury Glass has moved to 2022, taking a major threat out in Christian Bale. I guess Adam Driver is still a threat for House Of Gucci, but the unreliability of Ridley Scott means I'm going to be more cautious about predicting him for now. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 29, 2021 5:11:56 GMT
OK, revised predictions. 1 Denzel Washington- The Tragedy Of Macbeth . Apparently some festival programmer at Venice didn't like the movie. But then again, apparently Cannes did like it (and didn't get it) and it got a plum premiere spot at the New York Film Festival. So yeah...much ado about nothing for now (hey, a Shakespeare reference ) So it's still in a good spot. Unless reviews come out killing the movie (and I have a hard time seeing critics seriously dinging a black and white Shakespeare production starring two of the most acclaimed American actors in history directed by Joel Coen), Washington remains the frontrunner. If reviews are good, he's probably winning (or at least will be tough to beat). 2 Will Smith - King RichardWasn't in my last top 5, as I needed to see something with my own eyes. The trailer dropped, and while it may look pretty mainstream and for some, "basic", it looks pretty damned entertaining and Smith looked good enough He'll be hurt by the Golden Globes being out of commission this coming season, because this looks like something they'd go for, while I don't really see this as a big player with critics groups etc. 3 Bradley Cooper- Same reasons as last time, but Smith looking competitive has pushed him down a spot. 4 Michael B Jordan- Journal For Jordan
Same reasons as last time. Don't think it'll be all vets, and he seems ready for his Oscar breakthrough 5 Leonardo DiCaprio- Don't Look Up
Now into my top 5 because Canterbury Glass has moved to 2022, taking a major threat out in Christian Bale. I guess Adam Driver is still a threat for House Of Gucci, but the unreliability of Ridley Scott means I'm going to be more cautious about predicting him for now. I'd be interested to hear why you're still so hesitant on Cumberbatch. He seems to be in a pretty good position right now. Previous nominee, baity af role, Top 2 priority for Netflix and his film is doing all 4 of Venice, TIFF, Telluride and NYFF. |
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Jul 29, 2021 7:16:09 GMT
1. Smith
2. Cumberbatch
3. Washington
4. Dinklage
5. Collins Jr.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jul 29, 2021 13:19:03 GMT
Smith
Cumberbatch
Washington
Cooper
DiCaprio
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Post by JangoB on Jul 29, 2021 13:28:14 GMT
- Will Smith
- Denzel Washington
- Benedict Cumberbatch
- Bradley Cooper
- Michael B. Jordan
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 29, 2021 13:38:35 GMT
Smith Cumberbatch Washington Cooper DiCaprio Yeah this is who I have right now too. I guess Cyrano might not be that good if recent buzz is true, and as a late release against a lot of other late releases, I could see it getting lost. I think Jockey might be too small in the end; although I could see a SAG nomination especially if a lot of things come really close to the release deadline. I think Driver’s best chance Supporting where the category seems wide open still imo, and with a dynamic perhaps even borderline leading character, he’s likely going to have an advantage since voters seem to love category fraud. Not sure about Journal for Jordan now. I know it’s also a late release, but TIFF seemed like a friendly place for it. I know it’s unusual to have five returning nominees/winners, but I can see it this year. Further I haven’t heard anything more about Tick, Tick… Boom since a few weeks ago. Garfield could still happen, but with Netflix having The Power of the Dog and Don’t Look Up, I’m not sure they’re going to get a third Best Actor nominee this year. Right now the only actor that I’m confident could possibly knockout someone in this lineup is Phoenix, but I’m not sure who I would take out. Cumberbatch feels pretty solid perhaps might even win. King Richard looks very crowd pleasing, and those that have seen it early have said Smith can win. Right now Washington is at a spot where he’ll be in contention for just about anything, and even if The Tragedy of Macbeth is not as warmly received as I had thought, he’s still a major threat for the nomination maybe even the win still. If Nightmare Alley is another big awards player for del Toro, it’s hard to see Cooper missing. And Don’t Look Up looks safe right now in a field of 10, and it’s hard to see DiCaprio in a Best Picture nominee. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 29, 2021 13:54:30 GMT
If these 5 are THE top 5 you have a lot of cool history here: * Denzel Washington would go for me, from a roughly top 15 or so American film actor to about 10th - ever - even without comedy or filmography (that's true...... Denzel-wackadoodles ) - that's a huge deal and to me a significant jump over all his generational rivals - Hanks, Bridges, Dafoe - he'd be only the 2nd American male ever nominated for a Shakespearean role ............and the first in like 70 years (since Brando)........it would be an undeniable feat. * DiCaprio would be a nominee for 4 films IN A ROW which I think only Brando, Pacino, William Hurt have done (?) with 3 in a row before.....and he would have a case right now over Phoenix for best of his generation .......or even higher than just that.....that's an undeniable statistic too. That would be 7 nods, 4 in a row at 47 (turns 47 in Nov) - a lot of people would put him in the top 10 too..... Now, having said that ........ Bradley Cooper just isn't missing ...........unless that movie is a total botch - I said this before in Supporting it might not be Jesse Plemons it could be - going by the book at least - Kodi Smit-McPhee in the same movie instead......well just like that Blanchett or whomever in Nightmare Alley would be very hard to imagine in any way without Cooper - again going by the book at least.......I'd put Cooper at 1 or 2 sight unseen atm..... 1. Will Smith (King Richard)
2. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
3. Adam Driver (Annette/ House of Gucci)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up)
5. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
Nothing really to add to ^ but I still feel this "all-star" lineup has to fall - and Cooper isn't there above and to me he's close to a sure thing - maybe it's Clifton Collins or Dinklage who gets in .............but I just don't buy BA being all previous nominees ........also, again, the absence of Phoenix's C'mon, C'mon from predictions or festivals is kind of stunning to me atm .............unless it ends up at Telluride .......  |
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) - that's a huge deal and to me a significant jump over all his generational rivals - Hanks, Bridges, Dafoe - he'd be only the 2nd American male ever nominated for a Shakespearean role ............and the first in like 70 years (since Brando)........it would be an undeniable feat.
which I think only Brando, Pacino, William Hurt have done (?) with 3 in a row before.....and he would have a case right now over Phoenix for best of his generation .......or even higher than just that.....that's an undeniable statistic too. That would be 7 nods, 4 in a row at 47 (turns 47 in Nov) - a lot of people would put him in the top 10 too..... 
...........unless that movie is a total botch - I said this before in Supporting it might not be Jesse Plemons it could be - going by the book at least - Kodi Smit-McPhee in the same movie instead......well just like that Blanchett or whomever in Nightmare Alley would be very hard to imagine in any way without Cooper - again going by the book at least.......I'd put Cooper at 1 or 2 sight unseen atm.....
