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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2020 16:18:15 GMT
If they wanted to reward a veteran why wouldn’t they go for Langella over Tucci? Because Langella is the, at absolute best, 3rd most likely to get nominated from his own film.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2020 16:34:36 GMT
If they wanted to reward a veteran why wouldn’t they go for Langella over Tucci? Because Langella is the, at absolute best, 3rd most likely to get nominated from his own film. What’s this analysis based on? Prognosticators?
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2020 16:35:35 GMT
Because Langella is the, at absolute best, 3rd most likely to get nominated from his own film. What’s this analysis based on? Prognosticators? Haven't we already had this conversation?
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2020 16:46:25 GMT
What’s this analysis based on? Prognosticators? Haven't we already had this conversation? Yes, but from what I can tell you’re just not predicting him. Right now the acting noms from this film are up in the air with a lot of wildcards.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2020 16:52:13 GMT
Haven't we already had this conversation? Yes, but from what I can tell you’re just not predicting him. Right now the acting noms from this film are up in the air with a lot of wildcards. I've never been good at explaining myself and making well thought out posts, and I've already tried to do that about this subject in another thread. All I'll say is that Cohen and Rylance are comfortably ahead of Langella, who is honestly probably slightly below both Redmayne and Mateen too.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2020 16:58:23 GMT
Yes, but from what I can tell you’re just not predicting him. Right now the acting noms from this film are up in the air with a lot of wildcards. I've never been good at explaining myself and making well thought out posts, and I've already tried to do that about this subject in another thread. All I'll say is that Cohen and Rylance are comfortably ahead of Langella, who is honestly probably slightly below both Redmayne and Mateen too. I’m not necessarily either. What I’ll say is there is a history of unpredictable noms from the Academy and it often happens in a supporting category. Every year I’m surprised at how shocked people are over some out of left field nom that wasn’t a consensus prediction. i also think film Twitter is a very small bubble and not at all indicative of the vast population of Academy members. My gut feeling opinion is that Langella’s performance will resonate as a great supporting standout from the film.
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Post by DanQuixote on Nov 16, 2020 20:09:19 GMT
01. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 02. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami... 03. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 04. David Straithairn, Nomadland 05. Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 06. Charles Dance, Mank 07. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holliday 08. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 09. Stanley Tucci, Supernova 10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Nov 16, 2020 22:23:56 GMT
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami David Straithairn, Nomadland Charles Dance, Mank Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
HM: Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 17, 2020 1:16:49 GMT
Cohen Odom Jr. Rhodes Rylance Tucci
Turmann Domingo Mateen II
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 17, 2020 1:38:14 GMT
Langella Langella Langella Langella Langella
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 17, 2020 1:44:37 GMT
Langella Langella Langella Langella Langella This is the slightly less extreme version of Tommen voting for Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always to win BP for like 4 months in a row, or those goddamn Black is King trolls
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 17, 2020 6:43:38 GMT
Is there some kind of info I don’t know about because I saw a couple of people earlier today predict him as the winner? I hadn’t heard anything at all, so it just seemed strange that all of a sudden he was being predicted as the winner. I guess Borat can help Sacha Baron Cohen, but that still seems weird to me if it weren’t how weird this year is. I feel like it might already be forgotten about by the time the Oscars happen even if a lot of people watched it because everyday 45 and/or those around him keep doing things that make people forget what just happened a short time before. I thought losing the election would slow down the news cycle at least eventually, but it hasn’t happened yet. Like I see a few people bring up the hotel room thing, but I feel like the whole Four Seasons Landscaping incident is what people bring up now to make fun of Giuliani more. I don’t know it’s just such an odd year with most things streaming, it’s hard for me at least to judge how much of an impact something really has in the public because it seems like the first week or so, a film gets talked up a lot, but then seems to be forgotten when the next big release streams. Anyhow outside of his film, Tucci feels a lot more like a winner to me since he’s a beloved veteran, that does well in this category, but I’m not sure about the actual film. It seems baity, but Bleecker Street I think is only so-so at the Oscars. Like I believe they’ve gotten some nominations, but I don’t think they’ve won anything. I wouldn't say Bleecker Street having a 'so-so' track record at the Oscars is the best argument against Tucci. It happens all the time that a distributor/production company that is middling when it comes to the awards race suddenly blows up in a big way, I mean just look at Neon last season. Now yes, I know that Parasite and Tucci's film aren't comparable but it's just a way of saying that if the performance is baity and beloved enough, it being Bleecker Street won't really matter. Read some of the Tucci tea, so now I’m not so behind. I guess it would be massive category fraud, but that’s actually a good thing in terms of boosting his chances to win. Also have seen several pundits predicting him, so that’s good. I think the tough part is just getting the nomination, and after that I think his veteran status, the baitiness of the role, and having such a large role could lead him to victory.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Dec 5, 2020 20:10:09 GMT
No surprise but GoldDerby confirmed that Stanfield will be pushed lead and Kaluuya Supporting for 'Judas and the Black Messiah'.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 5, 2020 21:00:49 GMT
That makes Kaluuya the front runner I guess.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 5, 2020 21:05:51 GMT
That makes Kaluuya the front runner I guess. Yeah, I still don’t have faith in SBC even if he’s the front runner right now, and I imagine Judas and the Black Messiah will be bigger and seen more than Supernova.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 5, 2020 22:02:05 GMT
That makes Kaluuya the front runner I guess. Yeah, I still don’t have faith in SBC even if he’s the front runner right now, and I imagine Judas and the Black Messiah will be bigger and seen more than Supernova. Imo there is no way SBC wins the Oscar. But Leslie Odom Jr might.
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Post by franklin on Dec 6, 2020 1:48:15 GMT
He's the frontrunner only if the film gets great reviews.
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Post by quetee on Dec 6, 2020 5:54:43 GMT
Murray's going supporting.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Dec 10, 2020 2:01:57 GMT
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah** Bill Murray, On the Rocks Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alt: Stanley Tucci, Supernova
The win is between Kaluuya and Odom, Jr. I imagine. Kaluuya won’t show up on critics lists due to the film being released late, but I do think he’s gonna show up at the big awards when he’s eligible while Odom Jr will take the wins early on.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2020 2:31:00 GMT
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah** Bill Murray, On the Rocks Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Alt: Stanley Tucci, Supernova The win is between Kaluuya and Odom, Jr. I imagine. Kaluuya won’t show up on critics lists due to the film being released late, but I do think he’s gonna show up at the big awards when he’s eligible while Odom Jr will take the wins early on. I almost have the same 5, just swap Tucci and Murray. I feel like Murray, and that film in general, are just such an afterthought at this point.
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Post by stephen on Dec 14, 2020 1:24:06 GMT
I know it's insanely early, the studio isn't all that great, and BSFC (while a fine feather in one's cap) isn't one of the main trifecta . . . but there is an awful lot of talk right now surrounding Paul Raci, and Supporting Actor is desolate at the moment, with Trial of the Chicago 7 fading to the point that we might only see one contender instead of two from it. If they can position the buzz perfectly and he keeps getting critics' mentions, could we see him get a passion nod? He could get the Ann Dowd/Albert Brooks treatment, but they had stronger competition in their respective years.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 14, 2020 1:32:17 GMT
I know it's insanely early, the studio isn't all that great, and BSFC (while a fine feather in one's cap) isn't one of the main trifecta . . . but there is an awful lot of talk right now surrounding Paul Raci, and Supporting Actor is desolate at the moment, with Trial of the Chicago 7 fading to the point that we might only see one contender instead of two from it. If they can position the buzz perfectly and he keeps getting critics' mentions, could we see him get a passion nod? He could get the Ann Dowd/Albert Brooks treatment, but they had stronger competition in their respective years. Agree with everything here. I just wanted to add that I think Ravi has an advantage that Dowd and Brooks didn’t is that it seems like Ahmed has a decent chance of being nominated, and Raci can potentially coattail.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 14, 2020 1:44:57 GMT
I know it's insanely early, the studio isn't all that great, and BSFC (while a fine feather in one's cap) isn't one of the main trifecta . . . but there is an awful lot of talk right now surrounding Paul Raci, and Supporting Actor is desolate at the moment, with Trial of the Chicago 7 fading to the point that we might only see one contender instead of two from it. If they can position the buzz perfectly and he keeps getting critics' mentions, could we see him get a passion nod? He could get the Ann Dowd/Albert Brooks treatment, but they had stronger competition in their respective years. I’d still expect TOTC7 to do very well nom wise overall, not sure it’s really fading in that regard at all. As for Raci, it’s certainly possible but I don’t think it’s very likely.
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Post by stephen on Dec 14, 2020 1:52:11 GMT
I’d still expect TOTC7 to do very well nom wise overall, not sure it’s really fading in that regard at all. As for Raci, it’s certainly possible but I don’t think it’s very likely. The thing is, I can see Trial getting Steve Jobs'd and couping one or two nominations and blanking for the rest. And the thing is, the discourse around is has lessened substantially since it bowed. There's just no passion for it -- even its defenders aren't very ardent. If it bounces back, it would have to do so in a huge way, and I just don't see that being the horse Netflix will be promoting as vigorously as it would need to be. But that's my perception.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 21, 2020 5:06:27 GMT
What do you guys think of the NY and LA winners chances of nominations? I don’t think it’s guaranteed but I like Bosman’s chances at a double nomination. Normally Turman would feel like a great candidate for a coattail nomination but unfortunately for him Domingo’s performance is also very well received and could cut into his votes.
Most years I could see them both making it easily (and maybe they still will, anybody who says they know for sure what will happen in this category this year is lying) but this year is so deep for nomination contenders I honestly see about 15 performances I think have a shot to get in.
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