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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2020 18:15:30 GMT
I don't think he was going to make Lead, but I do think Sacha Baron Cohen has a chance of breaking into Supporting. Which is a shame, because that basically dashes any chance of Mateen getting in (who I thought was the real star here). Very curious to see who makes it in for this film. Could be 0, could be 2. Doesn't seem to be too much of a consensus between Rylance, Cohen, Langella, and Mateen. I could see different combinations getting in at different awards. Reading responses here and elsewhere, Rylance seems pretty heavily favored as at least getting one of the spots. It's the second spot that's in heavy contention (and I think that's where Baron Cohen swoops in).
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Post by DanQuixote on Oct 27, 2020 18:39:18 GMT
I don't think he was going to make Lead, but I do think Sacha Baron Cohen has a chance of breaking into Supporting. Which is a shame, because that basically dashes any chance of Mateen getting in (who I thought was the real star here). Very curious to see who makes it in for this film. Could be 0, could be 2. Doesn't seem to be too much of a consensus between Rylance, Cohen, Langella, and Mateen. I could see different combinations getting in at different awards. Reading responses here and elsewhere, Rylance seems pretty heavily favored as at least getting one of the spots. It's the second spot that's in heavy contention (and I think that's where Baron Cohen swoops in). I’m predicting both, but I think Cohen is more likely than Rylance. He’s having a banner year, he’s got the showier character, the baitier scene and he’s a comedian doing Drama. I think the Academy are going to eat him up.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2020 18:43:22 GMT
Reading responses here and elsewhere, Rylance seems pretty heavily favored as at least getting one of the spots. It's the second spot that's in heavy contention (and I think that's where Baron Cohen swoops in). I’m predicting both, but I think Cohen is more likely than Rylance. He’s having a banner year, he’s got the showier character, the baitier scene and he’s a comedian doing Drama. I think the Academy are going to eat him up. Rylance has the respect in the industry, is a prior winner (which always helps, particularly in this category), figures into the film's biggest moments, and has at least a BAFTA nod all but locked. Baron Cohen has all of the pros you mentioned in his column, but the sophomore nod for a winner is always easier to bet on over the breakthrough.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 27, 2020 18:46:23 GMT
I don't think he was going to make Lead, but I do think Sacha Baron Cohen has a chance of breaking into Supporting. Which is a shame, because that basically dashes any chance of Mateen getting in (who I thought was the real star here). Very curious to see who makes it in for this film. Could be 0, could be 2. Doesn't seem to be too much of a consensus between Rylance, Cohen, Langella, and Mateen. I could see different combinations getting in at different awards. Reading responses here and elsewhere, Rylance seems pretty heavily favored as at least getting one of the spots. It's the second spot that's in heavy contention (and I think that's where Baron Cohen swoops in). I think Rylance obviously has a shot, but he's probably being a tad overrated here. Manteen and Baron Cohen make the most sense to me at the moment, especially as both are having banner years. Manteen just won an Emmy and is seemingly being positioned as a major star and Cohen has another buzzy hit in Borat. That type of in the moment "heat" can make all the difference.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2020 18:51:23 GMT
Reading responses here and elsewhere, Rylance seems pretty heavily favored as at least getting one of the spots. It's the second spot that's in heavy contention (and I think that's where Baron Cohen swoops in). I think Rylance obviously has a shot, but he's probably being a tad overrated here. Manteen and Cohen make the most sense to me at the moment, especially as both are having banner years. Manteen just won an Emmy and Cohen has another hit in Borat. That type of "heat" can make all the difference. Abdul-Mateen II has Emmy momentum, but he is still a general unknown and he's kinda undercut by not being in the film in the back half (which I think is his major knock against him, unlike someone like Mahershala Ali 1.0, who dominates the screentime he had in the eventual Best Picture so thoroughly and more than makes his absence known after he's gone). The Academy knows who Rylance is, actors know who Rylance is, he's going to have awards heat almost by default. They also really like to acknowledge their winners with follow-up nominations, almost as a way to justify their initial decisions. Langella is also a major dark horse here who shouldn't be overlooked.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 27, 2020 19:01:05 GMT
I think Rylance obviously has a shot, but he's probably being a tad overrated here. Manteen and Cohen make the most sense to me at the moment, especially as both are having banner years. Manteen just won an Emmy and Cohen has another hit in Borat. That type of "heat" can make all the difference. Abdul-Mateen II has Emmy momentum, but he is still a general unknown and he's kinda undercut by not being in the film in the back half (which I think is his major knock against him, unlike someone like Mahershala Ali 1.0, who dominates the screentime he had in the eventual Best Picture so thoroughly and more than makes his absence known after he's gone). The Academy knows who Rylance is, actors know who Rylance is, he's going to have awards heat almost by default. They also really like to acknowledge their winners with follow-up nominations, almost as a way to justify their initial decisions. Langella is also a major dark horse here who shouldn't be overlooked. Manteen is not an industry unknown. The idea that a guy who just won an Emmy for one of the biggest shows of the year, played a major villian in a billion dollar superhero tentpole ( Aquaman) and is the lead in the highly touted, Jordan Peele produced Candyman (as well as basically replacing Laurence Fishburne in Matrix 4) is someone too "unknown" for Academy voters feels like wishful thinking. He's an actor clearly being touted for major stardom. He may not be quite there yet, but an Oscar nomination is exactly the kind of thing AMPAS likes to give to actors on his trajectory. Him not being in the film in the back half is a credible reason to doubt him, but I can't agree with this "too unknown" business at all.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2020 19:13:39 GMT
Abdul-Mateen II has Emmy momentum, but he is still a general unknown and he's kinda undercut by not being in the film in the back half (which I think is his major knock against him, unlike someone like Mahershala Ali 1.0, who dominates the screentime he had in the eventual Best Picture so thoroughly and more than makes his absence known after he's gone). The Academy knows who Rylance is, actors know who Rylance is, he's going to have awards heat almost by default. They also really like to acknowledge their winners with follow-up nominations, almost as a way to justify their initial decisions. Langella is also a major dark horse here who shouldn't be overlooked. Manteen is not an industry unknown. The idea that a guy who just won an Emmy for one of the biggest shows of the year, played a major villian in a billion dollar superhero tentpole ( Aquaman) and is the lead in the highly touted, Jordan Peele produced Candyman (as well as basically replacing Laurence Fishburne in Matrix 4) is someone too "unknown" for Academy voters feels like wishful thinking. He's an actor clearly being touted for major stardom. He may not be quite there yet, but an Oscar nomination is exactly the kind of thing AMPAS likes to give to actors on his trajectory. Him not being in the film in the back half is a credible reason to doubt him, but I can't agree with this "too unknown" business at all. Considering you aren't even spelling the guy's name right, it's easy enough to say that the guy is still not a mainstream name, even with him having cropped up in high-profile things. He's on the cusp for sure, no doubt, but considering his notices aren't particularly standout against his castmates (which is the same for pretty much all of them, hence why we can't agree on a frontrunner for the nominations), I'm more inclined to bet on the bigger names, which include a former winner who, if you check pundits and general reviews, almost universally name-check Rylance in the top two contenders for the film. Abdul-Mateen II is about to be everywhere for sure, and I think he'll be one of those guys to score a nomination once he gets a project that actually focuses on him for more than fifteen minutes, but I would put him at fourth best for a nomination for this film simply because Rylance, Baron Cohen and Langella all have more upsides in their columns.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 27, 2020 19:31:41 GMT
Manteen is not an industry unknown. The idea that a guy who just won an Emmy for one of the biggest shows of the year, played a major villian in a billion dollar superhero tentpole ( Aquaman) and is the lead in the highly touted, Jordan Peele produced Candyman (as well as basically replacing Laurence Fishburne in Matrix 4) is someone too "unknown" for Academy voters feels like wishful thinking. He's an actor clearly being touted for major stardom. He may not be quite there yet, but an Oscar nomination is exactly the kind of thing AMPAS likes to give to actors on his trajectory. Him not being in the film in the back half is a credible reason to doubt him, but I can't agree with this "too unknown" business at all. Considering you aren't even spelling the guy's name right, it's easy enough to say that the guy is still not a mainstream name, even with him having cropped up in high-profile things. He's on the cusp for sure, no doubt, but considering his notices aren't particularly standout against his castmates (which is the same for pretty much all of them, hence why we can't agree on a frontrunner for the nominations), I'm more inclined to bet on the bigger names, which include a former winner who, if you check pundits and general reviews, almost universally name-check Rylance in the top two contenders for the film. Abdul-Mateen II is about to be everywhere for sure, and I think he'll be one of those guys to score a nomination once he gets a project that actually focuses on him for more than fifteen minutes, but I would put him at fourth best for a nomination for this film simply because Rylance, Baron Cohen and Langella all have more upsides in their columns. How I spell his name is irrelevant. I've always spelled Schwarzneggar inconsistently, but it's just one of those names for me. I usually just call him Yahya.Again him being a "mainstream name" is completely irrelevant to him having industry heat and recognition. I just think this he's "too unknown to get an Oscar nod" rationale just feels silly to me. AMPAS voters saw Watchmen as well and probably know that "Yayha with too many exotic names" won an Emmy for it. He's hot shit right now in industry terms. You can make all the other arguments you want, but that one makes zero sense to me.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2020 19:37:17 GMT
How I spell his name is irrelevant. I've always spelled Schwarzneggar inconsistently, but it's just one of those names for me. I usually just call him Yahya.Again him being a "mainstream name" is completely irrelevant to him having industry heat and recognition. I just think this he's "too unknown to get an Oscar nod" just feels silly to me. AMPAS voters saw Watchmen as well and probably know that "Yayha with too many exotic names" won an Emmy for it. You can make all the other arguments you want, but that one makes zero sense to me. Agree to disagree, then. I think that despite having a strong showing the last year or so in things that netted him an Emmy win, he's still a general unknown -- or, if you prefer, a very fresh face. That is by no means a diss, but he's still very new on the scene and I think that makes his path to an Oscar nomination that much harder without having standout notices against the rest of his equally-praised ensemble. Emmy momentum or no, that's still a tough sell. And while AMPAS voters may have seen Watchmen, that doesn't really mean much, because they'll have seen Borat 2 and they obviously have seen Rylance and Langella's body of work as well. Abdul-Mateen II is still the new guy on the block, and I think he's still got to build his resume a bit more even with the Emmy win before that success transitions to Oscar glory.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 28, 2020 13:57:07 GMT
Btw, how is it really pronounced?? I thought the right pronounciation is "Ya-ya"...
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 28, 2020 14:13:10 GMT
Murray is very much supporting. He’ll probably go lead at the globes though. I can accept he's supporting, ok. But "very much"?? No, he ain't. Well he doesn’t even appear until 20min into a 90min movie and it’s not like he’s in every scene from that point on either.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 28, 2020 14:32:16 GMT
I can accept he's supporting, ok. But "very much"?? No, he ain't. Well he doesn’t even appear until 20min into a 90min movie and it’s not like he’s in every scene from that point on either. It's not about when he shows up, it's the significance of the role he's playing. But anyway, I can accept him being placed SA but I don't think it's that obvious a decision.
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Post by ptacoenlover on Oct 28, 2020 20:20:21 GMT
Murray is very much supporting. He’ll probably go lead at the globes though. I can accept he's supporting, ok. But "very much"?? No, he ain't. It’s Jones’ story through and through in my opinion at least.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 28, 2020 21:44:23 GMT
I can accept he's supporting, ok. But "very much"?? No, he ain't. It’s Jones’ story through and through in my opinion at least. That's true. But I'd argue it's also a father-daughter story.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 29, 2020 1:14:01 GMT
WB should just drop Judas and the Black Messiah right before the deadline, fraud Kaluuya supporting and he'll fucking sweep this category.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Oct 29, 2020 1:15:17 GMT
WB should just drop Judas and the Black Messiah right before the deadline, fraud Kaluuya supporting and he'll fucking sweep this category. I'm not even sure that would be such a fraud. Judging by the trailer, it's LaKeith who drives the narrative of the story, while Kaluuya's got the juicier character. But they should definitely release it! One of my most anticipated.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 29, 2020 1:23:43 GMT
WB should just drop Judas and the Black Messiah right before the deadline, fraud Kaluuya supporting and he'll fucking sweep this category. I'm not even sure that would be such a fraud. Judging by the trailer, it's LaKeith who drives the narrative of the story, while Kaluuya's got the juicier character. But they should definitely release it! One of my most anticipated. True. It's just after the trailer I was thinking that maybe it was going to be a Last King in Scotland type situation.
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 30, 2020 17:25:30 GMT
This is a hail-mary hopeful for me but.... Anyone else looking forward to Walken in Wild Mountain Thyme? On one hand it sounds like a corny love story that seems at best would just get a GG nod for Emily Blunt, but it's based on a play, adapted and directed by John Patrick Shanley who's not nobody - he wrote Moonstruck and did Doubt and between just those two 7 actors were nominated. Helllllo. Peter Maloney was Drama Desk nom'd for playing Walken's part on stage!
Thyme has a comfy Dec 11 release date........ And if Murray doesn't get the vet slot, I like Walken there sight-unseen.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 15, 2020 1:14:46 GMT
I'd keep an eye on Stanley Tucci here.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 16, 2020 2:15:32 GMT
This year is interesting since there are a ton of candidates for the nomination but nobody feels like a winner. That is unless somebody feels like committing category fraud.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2020 2:26:53 GMT
This year is interesting since there are a ton of candidates for the nomination but nobody feels like a winner. That is unless somebody feels like committing category fraud. I'm still wondering whether WB drop Judas and the Black Messiah just in time and push Kaluuya here. He'd sweep.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 16, 2020 2:42:34 GMT
This year is interesting since there are a ton of candidates for the nomination but nobody feels like a winner. That is unless somebody feels like committing category fraud. I'm still wondering whether WB drop Judas and the Black Messiah just in time and push Kaluuya here. He'd sweep. I’m starting to feel like that movie isn’t coming out in time but yeah I think he probably instantly becomes the frontrunner. Unless Netflix moves Lindo to supporting.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 16, 2020 2:48:15 GMT
I'd keep an eye on Stanley Tucci here. Is there some kind of info I don’t know about because I saw a couple of people earlier today predict him as the winner? I hadn’t heard anything at all, so it just seemed strange that all of a sudden he was being predicted as the winner. This year is interesting since there are a ton of candidates for the nomination but nobody feels like a winner. That is unless somebody feels like committing category fraud. I guess Borat can help Sacha Baron Cohen, but that still seems weird to me if it weren’t how weird this year is. I feel like it might already be forgotten about by the time the Oscars happen even if a lot of people watched it because everyday 45 and/or those around him keep doing things that make people forget what just happened a short time before. I thought losing the election would slow down the news cycle at least eventually, but it hasn’t happened yet. Like I see a few people bring up the hotel room thing, but I feel like the whole Four Seasons Landscaping incident is what people bring up now to make fun of Giuliani more. I don’t know it’s just such an odd year with most things streaming, it’s hard for me at least to judge how much of an impact something really has in the public because it seems like the first week or so, a film gets talked up a lot, but then seems to be forgotten when the next big release streams. Anyhow outside of his film, Tucci feels a lot more like a winner to me since he’s a beloved veteran, that does well in this category, but I’m not sure about the actual film. It seems baity, but Bleecker Street I think is only so-so at the Oscars. Like I believe they’ve gotten some nominations, but I don’t think they’ve won anything.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2020 2:56:21 GMT
I'd keep an eye on Stanley Tucci here. Is there some kind of info I don’t know about because I saw a couple of people earlier today predict him as the winner? I hadn’t heard anything at all, so it just seemed strange that all of a sudden he was being predicted as the winner. This year is interesting since there are a ton of candidates for the nomination but nobody feels like a winner. That is unless somebody feels like committing category fraud. I guess Borat can help Sacha Baron Cohen, but that still seems weird to me if it weren’t how weird this year is. I feel like it might already be forgotten about by the time the Oscars happen even if a lot of people watched it because everyday 45 and/or those around him keep doing things that make people forget what just happened a short time before. I thought losing the election would slow down the news cycle at least eventually, but it hasn’t happened yet. Like I see a few people bring up the hotel room thing, but I feel like the whole Four Seasons Landscaping incident is what people bring up now to make fun of Giuliani more. I don’t know it’s just such an odd year with most things streaming, it’s hard for me at least to judge how much of an impact something really has in the public because it seems like the first week or so, a film gets talked up a lot, but then seems to be forgotten when the next big release streams. Anyhow outside of his film, Tucci feels a lot more like a winner to me since he’s a beloved veteran, that does well in this category, but I’m not sure about the actual film. It seems baity, but Bleecker Street I think is only so-so at the Oscars. Like I believe they’ve gotten some nominations, but I don’t think they’ve won anything. I wouldn't say Bleecker Street having a 'so-so' track record at the Oscars is the best argument against Tucci. It happens all the time that a distributor/production company that is middling when it comes to the awards race suddenly blows up in a big way, I mean just look at Neon last season. Now yes, I know that Parasite and Tucci's film aren't comparable but it's just a way of saying that if the performance is baity and beloved enough, it being Bleecker Street won't really matter.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2020 15:15:30 GMT
If they wanted to reward a veteran why wouldn’t they go for Langella over Tucci?
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