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Post by stephen on Sept 29, 2020 21:36:25 GMT
Yeah, but again, he isn't the first actor whose death was a shocking moment that caused waves (one only needs to look at James Dean, the original dead actor to be nominated-twice, both in very iconic movies that were BP nominees), and he isn't there to campaign personally and to lob people (remember someone in the HPFA justifying not nominating Gandolfini because he wasn't going to show up to the party anyway?). Plus, of course, we don't know either the level of his performance, or the competition, or someone else creating a very good narrative (could easily see Murray doing it, for example), or, sadly, another shocking death coming that makes people focus on it. James Dean's nominations were his reward, because he was so new onto the scene that he hadn't built nearly enough cred to justify a posthumous campaign. Boseman has an entire decade of work, much of which had him in the conversation for awards even if he could never stick the landing, that he can fall back on. If Dean had a bit more to his filmography, he might've been able to pull off a win. He was major but hadn't been a major fixture in Hollywood long enough to make waves with voters. Boseman was.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 29, 2020 21:48:12 GMT
I disagree, not only because we haven't seen the movie, but because there's far more example of dead actors going nowhere on their campaigns than winning, and even then the ones that did- Finch and Ledger- were on huge hits and absurdly iconic performances that are among the most celebrated in the history of film. While this is true, the level of outpouring of grief and respect Boseman has gotten since his passing has been unbelievable. His death has a zeitgeist-defining feel to it, and even now, stories are coming out about his generosity and his work ethic. And now he's got Netflix pushing his final film, which is already a major contender due to its pedigree and its leading actress. Boseman's role in it is borderline lead and very strong on paper. With the lack of a strong frontrunner elsewhere and with the timing of his posthumous release, the stars are aligning better than most others who got nominations after dying and failed to capitalize on them. It would be the perfect way to honor a respected actor who died before he could enjoy awards success, yet who already consecrated his place in the pop culture pantheon. He's not a Ledger-level lock, and Finch died a month before the awards ceremony (and even still would likely have won if he hadn't), but all Boseman really needs is for his performance to be good and I don't see anything really working against him. Yeah....I'll go as far as to say Boseman's death feels like it's the most impactful and consequential for an actor taken before their percieved time since Dean's . Even yesterday there was a trending story on Twitter about Boseman giving up part of his salary to Sienna Miller on the film 21 Bridges, so she could be paid what he felt she deserved when the studio refused to meet her quote. If the guy has postive trending stories this long after his death, he's essentially getting the most effective campaign ever right up until voting starts. As you said, he's got a far bigger and more consequential body of work than Dean (especially playing all those iconic real life figures) that the industry would see him as someone whose career would merit an Oscar. Ma Rainy's Black Bottom simply has to not suck, for Boseman to probably have this in the bag.
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Post by stephen on Sept 29, 2020 21:52:08 GMT
Yeah....I'll go as far as to say Boseman's death is the most impactful and consequential for an actor taken before their percieved time since Dean's. Even yesterday there was a trending story on Twitter about Boseman giving up part of his salary to Sienna Miller on the film 21 Bridges, so she could be paid what he felt she deserved when the studio refused to meet her quote. If the guy has postive trending stories this long after his death, he's essentially getting the most effective campaign ever right up until voting startsm As you said, he's got a far bigger and more consequential body of work than Dean (especially playing all those iconic real life figures) that the industry would see him as someone whose career would merit an Oscar. Ma Rainy's Black Bottom simply has to not suck, for Boseman to probably have this in the bag. His passing is the most impactful and consequential since Ledger's, at the very least. The thing is, it's almost October and no one is sticking out as a strong contender in this field, and Boseman's gonna be one of the last ones to enter the fray. With the lack of a reasonable alternative, they might decide to give him the win in honor of the man as much as the performance.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 24, 2020 16:27:32 GMT
So who the fuck wins now??
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2020 16:41:13 GMT
So who the fuck wins now?? Assuming Kaluuya and Yeun don't get docked to supporting: Mark Rylance for Trial of the Chicago 7 and Charles Dance for Mank seem like safe bets for slots. Rylance is a previous winner, with beefy screentime compared to the others (only Redmayne outstrips him for screentime), in the sort of crusading lawyer role the Academy salivates over. Dance has the historical villain role that they similarly enjoy in this category. It remains to be seen who Netflix will prioritize, but both seem locked for a BAFTA nod at this rate. I think we can bet on one other guy from Trial as a potential nominee, and I'm torn between Sacha Baron Cohen and Frank Langella. The former has Borat 2 momentum (which might result in a Globe nod for Comedy) and he's playing the most recognizable figure in the film, and it's definitely the loudest role of the piece. The latter is a revered actor who dominates his scenes, and like Dance, they might be drawn to the historical villain here. (I think there's still an outside shot for Keaton or even Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, but I think their screentime and focus works against them.) You'd have to also think that someone from One Night in Miami figures into the mix, but like Trial, there doesn't seem to be a consensus pick. Leslie Odom, Jr. and Kingsley Ben-Adir seem to be the ones favored at this rate, and the former has the benefit of being a likely Song contender and he's got Hamilton momentum on his side. I'd leave a slot open for one of them. I also think we're due for a curveball, like Richard E. Grant in Everybody's Talking About Jamie or maybe even Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (the guy has been everywhere the last few years and I could see him getting a random Supporting Actor nomination at some point, and the role has netted awards attention before).
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 24, 2020 16:46:39 GMT
Kaayula is in supporting it seems. Variety had him listed in Supporting in their predictions and Lakieth Stanfield as lead. And I presume a source as reputable as Variety would have confirmed category placement with the studio before doing something like that.
Assuming a good reception for the film, Kaayula may actually be a big threat for the win, given how juicy his role looks.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 24, 2020 16:51:40 GMT
I agree that if Kaluuya goes supporting it's his for the taking, but I wouldn't say Clayton Davis is necessarily a trusted source.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 24, 2020 16:52:06 GMT
So who the fuck wins now?? Assuming Kaluuya and Yeun don't get docked to supporting:
Mark Rylance for Trial of the Chicago 7 and Charles Dance for Mank seem like safe bets for slots. Rylance is a previous winner, with beefy screentime compared to the others (only Redmayne outstrips him for screentime), in the sort of crusading lawyer role the Academy salivates over. Dance has the historical villain role that they similarly enjoy in this category. It remains to be seen who Netflix will prioritize, but both seem locked for a BAFTA nod at this rate. I think we can bet on one other guy from Trial as a potential nominee, and I'm torn between Sacha Baron Cohen and Frank Langella. The former has Borat 2 momentum (which might result in a Globe nod for Comedy) and he's playing the most recognizable figure in the film, and it's definitely the loudest role of the piece. The latter is a revered actor who dominates his scenes, and like Dance, they might be drawn to the historical villain here. (I think there's still an outside shot for Keaton or even Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, but I think their screentime and focus works against them.) You'd have to also think that someone from One Night in Miami figures into the mix, but like Trial, there doesn't seem to be a consensus pick. Leslie Odom, Jr. and Kingsley Ben-Adir seem to be the ones favored at this rate, and the former has the benefit of being a likely Song contender and he's got Hamilton momentum on his side. I'd leave a slot open for one of them. I also think we're due for a curveball, like Richard E. Grant in Everybody's Talking About Jamie or maybe even Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (the guy has been everywhere the last few years and I could see him getting a random Supporting Actor nomination at some point, and the role has netted awards attention before). Yeun is 100% confirmed lead.
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2020 17:14:01 GMT
Yeun is 100% confirmed lead. We've seen campaigns change mid-stream before. Christoph Waltz in 2012, for instance, initially ran as lead before they wisely put him in supporting. But I do think A24 wants to get the first Asian-American Best Actor nomination on their mantle; trouble is, since Lady Bird, they've been crapping the bed on getting proper campaigns underway.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 24, 2020 17:24:15 GMT
I don’t condone it but honestly it would really be super easy for someone to commit category fraud and walk away with this one...
Lindo Boseman Kaluuya (if possible, I don’t know if he is even questionable) Yeun (though maybe not since Asian actors don’t do well at the Oscars)
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2020 17:31:42 GMT
I don’t condone it but honestly it would really be super easy for someone to commit category fraud and walk away with this one... Lindo Boseman Kaluuya (if possible, I don’t know if he is even questionable) Yeun (though maybe not since Asian actors don’t do well at the Oscars) I think it's hilarious that of all years for them not to go with blatant category fraud, they choose this one.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 24, 2020 17:37:02 GMT
I don’t condone it but honestly it would really be super easy for someone to commit category fraud and walk away with this one... Lindo Boseman Kaluuya (if possible, I don’t know if he is even questionable) Yeun (though maybe not since Asian actors don’t do well at the Oscars) I think it's hilarious that of all years for them not to go with blatant category fraud, they choose this one. Right? They literally did it last year in this same category. Nobody even cares anymore so why not?
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Post by sirjeremy on Oct 24, 2020 17:45:39 GMT
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 24, 2020 19:27:42 GMT
If they placed him in supporting, the Oscar would be his for the taking. In the leading category, it will be much harder.
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Post by DanQuixote on Oct 25, 2020 0:02:09 GMT
At the moment, I'm operating under the assumption that Judas and the Black Messiah isn't being released this year. If it does end up here, I'll probably predict whichever one gets pushed supporting.
1. Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami 2. Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago Seven 3. Mark Rylance - The Trial of the Chicago Seven 4. Charles Dance - Mank 5. David Straithairn - Nomadland
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 25, 2020 15:22:02 GMT
Until Judas and the Black Messiah confirmation.
Cohen Dance Odom Jr. Rhodes Rylance
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Lubezki
Based
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Post by Lubezki on Oct 26, 2020 22:05:14 GMT
hehe....does this change any of guys’ predictions?
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Post by stephen on Oct 26, 2020 22:13:31 GMT
hehe....does this change any of guys’ predictions? No. Never thought any of them had muscle to break into lead.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 27, 2020 7:24:05 GMT
Here's a thought: Can Cohen pull off a double win at the Globes?
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2020 15:18:46 GMT
Here's a thought: Can Cohen pull off a double win at the Globes? I can't see him winning two in the same night. Comedy/Musical Actor is probably his safest bet.
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Post by franklin on Oct 27, 2020 16:42:34 GMT
1. Dance 2. Rylance 3. Odom Jr 4. Murray 5. Baron Cohen
(6. Langella)
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 27, 2020 16:53:39 GMT
Murray is not really supporting though, am I right?
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Post by ptacoenlover on Oct 27, 2020 17:14:26 GMT
Murray is not really supporting though, am I right? Murray is very much supporting. He’ll probably go lead at the globes though.
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Post by dadsburgers on Oct 27, 2020 18:12:32 GMT
hehe....does this change any of guys’ predictions? I don't think he was going to make Lead, but I do think Sacha Baron Cohen has a chance of breaking into Supporting. Which is a shame, because that basically dashes any chance of Mateen getting in (who I thought was the real star here). Very curious to see who makes it in for this film. Could be 0, could be 2. Doesn't seem to be too much of a consensus between Rylance, Cohen, Langella, and Mateen. I could see different combinations getting in at different awards.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 27, 2020 18:13:01 GMT
Murray is not really supporting though, am I right? Murray is very much supporting. He’ll probably go lead at the globes though. I can accept he's supporting, ok. But "very much"?? No, he ain't.
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