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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 22, 2020 19:41:45 GMT
IndieWire taking a short break from wanting equal representation in the Supporting Actor category for females (that was a joke, ok I'll stop) and BSA rundown now. I like that D'Onofrio mention! Frontrunners
Richard Jenkins (“Kajillionaire”) Jonathan Majors (“Da 5 Bloods”) Clarke Peters (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Contenders
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) Adrien Brody (“The French Dispatch”) Tom Burke (“Mank”) Timothée Chalamet (“The French Dispatch”) Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) Willem Dafoe (“Nightmare Alley”) Charles Dance (“Mank”) Benicio del Toro (“The French Dispatch”) Vincent D’Onofrio (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) Adam Driver (“The Last Duel”) Lucas Hedges (“French Exit”) Oscar Isaac (“Dune”) Bill Murray (“The French Dispatch”) Robert Pattinson (“Tenet”) Eddie Redmayne (“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Mark Rylance (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) David Strathairn (“Nomadland”) Owen Wilson (“The French Dispatch”)
www.indiewire.com/feature/oscars-2021-best-supporting-actor-predictions-1234575409/
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 22, 2020 20:15:04 GMT
No clue at all atm but Peters HAS to be there!!!
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Post by stephen on Jul 22, 2020 20:16:54 GMT
Repeating what I said about Lindo. Whichever category they push him in, I think he's in. If that means Netflix docks him to supporting, then it means they're going for an easier win. Although I am hearing buzz that they intend a leading campaign. Regardless, I don't really feel anyone else is gonna get in for that film; Netflix has their plate full as it is with contenders with later releases. I love Clarke Peters but I would be gobsmacked if he got in for this; it would mean that a lot of would-be contenders have either pushed their releases to ineligibility for the year, or there have been many a disappointing release between now and the ceremony.
You'd have to think someone from Chicago 7's getting in, if not two. Rylance feels likeliest -- Kunstler was a colorful character and it's the sort of potential showboat-y type character Sorkin would have a blast writing. I expect Jeremy Strong would be next from that ensemble; he apparently went full-method in wanting to actually get tear-gassed (and he's riding high on Succession love with the critics). Baron Cohen feels like he's probably gonna have the biggest role, and Redmayne is an awards staple already, and I see a lot of people buzzing about Abdul-Mateen II. Honestly, you could probably stack any combo of actors from this and get five right out the gate.
Depending on what Mank does with Hearst, Charles Dance feels like a cinch for BAFTA and I can see him getting that sort of late-stage British vet push. Burke would have to really knock our socks off to get in, I think, but it's possible.
Wes Anderson's not really all that good at getting his actors nominated, weirdly enough, but there's just so many big names in this one and with a relative dearth of major competition on the horizon, if it's his year, you'd have to think at least one of his actors scoops a nod. Chalamet seems likeliest (see my banner year comment on Best Actor), but who knows?
I think Garfield's likelier to wind up here instead of Best Actor for Tammy Faye, but I'd like to see D'Onofrio make a run as well.
Boseman, they've been trying to make him a big awards darling for so long with the baitiest roles possible and they haven't stuck, but eventually he's gonna have to strike gold, and maybe a supporting play is the ticket.
Also gonna throw my ring into the hat here with a warning that if it comes out in time, the supporting cast of Dune deserves a look in. Particularly Stellar Skateboard Stellan Skarsgard, who's got a juicy villain role to play, and after Chernobyl's success and the way the Skarsgards have been just rocking the acting landscape of late, could be the pater familias's time to get his due.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 22, 2020 23:12:06 GMT
I think they’re going to push Lindo in Leading, otherwise he’d totally be my #1 here.
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom * Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Tom Pelphrey, Mank Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Steven Yeun, Minari
06. David Straithairn, Nomadland 07. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 08. Lucas Hedges, French Exit 09. Richard Jenkins, The Humans 10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 23, 2020 2:44:14 GMT
I've heard that Lindo is 100% going Lead.
Abdul-Mateen II Boseman Pelphrey Strong Yeun
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jul 23, 2020 5:25:23 GMT
Wait, they're really putting Lindo in lead?
I wasn't big on the film or the performance (he really should have starred in my Predator movie instead... silly actors going for actual films instead... ugh) but he would have been a surefire nod, if not win.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 23, 2020 5:34:35 GMT
Wait, they're really putting Lindo in lead? I wasn't big on the film or the performance (he really should have starred in my Predator movie instead... silly actors going for actual films instead... ugh) but he would have been a surefire nod, if not win. He'll definitely still get nommed in lead and it makes sense for Netflix to push him there because a) he's 100% lead and b) Netflix already has a shit ton of Supporting contenders; Boseman, Pelphrey/Dance/Burke and like 5 different people from TTOTC7.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 23, 2020 5:58:12 GMT
it makes sense for Netflix to push him there because a) he's 100% lead This.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jul 23, 2020 6:07:31 GMT
Wait, they're really putting Lindo in lead? I wasn't big on the film or the performance (he really should have starred in my Predator movie instead... silly actors going for actual films instead... ugh) but he would have been a surefire nod, if not win. He'll still definitely getting nommed in lead and it makes sense for Netflix to push him there because a) he's 100% lead and b) Netflix already has a shit ton of Supporting contenders; Boseman, Pelphrey/Dance/Burke and like 5 different people from TTOTC7. While I don't agree about him being lead (it definitely felt like an ensemble piece) it makes 100% sense when you think about the placement strategy of it all. Didn't think about that.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 23, 2020 12:21:17 GMT
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (unless he's campaigned lead which I doubt and think could be a mistake) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago (Alt. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7) Tom Burke, Mank (Alt. Charles Dance, Mank)
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 23, 2020 12:31:32 GMT
FYI: I know someone who's read the script for Mank and unless Eric Roth did some major re-writes, Burke has a fairly nothing role. From what I've heard, both Pelphrey and Dance have better roles. Plus, Pelphrey will be coming off an Emmy nom, quite possibly a win, and Dance is quite respected in the industry and hasn't been rewarded really anywhere yet.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jul 26, 2020 15:46:21 GMT
He'll still definitely getting nommed in lead and it makes sense for Netflix to push him there because a) he's 100% lead and b) Netflix already has a shit ton of Supporting contenders; Boseman, Pelphrey/Dance/Burke and like 5 different people from TTOTC7. While I don't agree about him being lead (it definitely felt like an ensemble piece) it makes 100% sense when you think about the placement strategy of it all. Didn't think about that. I’m with you on this one (and I know it’s a minority viewpoint). Lindo did not feel lead at all to me. I consider Peters more of the lead but it was a true ensemble all around,
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 28, 2020 17:14:35 GMT
FYI: I know someone who's read the script for Mank and unless Eric Roth did some major re-writes, Burke has a fairly nothing role. From what I've heard, both Pelphrey and Dance have better roles. Plus, Pelphrey will be coming off an Emmy nom, quite possibly a win, and Dance is quite respected in the industry and hasn't been rewarded really anywhere yet. I'm gonna have to say no on that one buddy .........it's ok, happens to the best of us .......
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 28, 2020 17:16:50 GMT
FYI: I know someone who's read the script for Mank and unless Eric Roth did some major re-writes, Burke has a fairly nothing role. From what I've heard, both Pelphrey and Dance have better roles. Plus, Pelphrey will be coming off an Emmy nom, quite possibly a win, and Dance is quite respected in the industry and hasn't been rewarded really anywhere yet. I'm gonna have to say no on that one buddy .........it's ok, happens to the best of us ....... I'm still in shock tbh.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Aug 11, 2020 3:49:17 GMT
I'm gonna have to say no on that one buddy .........it's ok, happens to the best of us ....... I'm still in shock tbh. Like Rhea Seehorn or his only serious potential contender (in a just world) Tony Dalton, he suffered from the slight problem that Emmy voters don't actually watch the shows they vote in, or at least not in the entirety.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 11, 2020 19:34:31 GMT
It's interesting that no one had Kaluuya or Stanfield on the radar on the IndieWire list (below) or among us until the trailer for “Judas and the Black Messiah” dropped .....that probably means something about this year being hard to read and to get a handle on things which could come out of left-field.
Frontrunners
Richard Jenkins (“Kajillionaire”) Jonathan Majors (“Da 5 Bloods”) Clarke Peters (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Contenders
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) Adrien Brody (“The French Dispatch”) Tom Burke (“Mank”) Timothée Chalamet (“The French Dispatch”) Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) Willem Dafoe (“Nightmare Alley”) Charles Dance (“Mank”) Benicio del Toro (“The French Dispatch”) Vincent D’Onofrio (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) Adam Driver (“The Last Duel”) Lucas Hedges (“French Exit”) Oscar Isaac (“Dune”) Bill Murray (“The French Dispatch”) Robert Pattinson (“Tenet”) Eddie Redmayne (“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Mark Rylance (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) David Strathairn (“Nomadland”) Owen Wilson (“The French Dispatch”)
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 27, 2020 23:08:15 GMT
Here's Variety's ranked predictions as of now (there's more contenders in the link). This is an interesting category this year bc the ensembles might butt each other out and we may get some wildcard picks. Okay.....I liked Strathairn in Nomadland but a win seems ridiculous. He only has like two straight-on scenes. Is this race already totally Bosemans to win? 1. David Strathairn "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures) 2. Chadwick Boseman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix) 3. Bill Murray "On the Rocks" (A24/Apple TV Plus) 4. Leslie Odom, Jr. "One NIght in Miami" (Amazon Studios) 5. Lakeith Stanfield "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.) 6. Sacha Baron Cohen "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) 7. Frank Langella "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) 8. Mark Rylance "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) 9. Kingsley Ben-Adir "One Night in Miami..." (Amazon Studios) 10. Shia LaBeouf "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)
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Post by franklin on Sept 27, 2020 23:48:37 GMT
I still haven't understood. Will they campaign Baron Cohen as Lead or Supporting??
Anyway:
1. Boseman 2. Murray 3. Rylance 4. Mateen 5. Strathairn
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 28, 2020 2:20:36 GMT
Here's Variety's ranked predictions as of now (there's more contenders in the link). This is an interesting category this year bc the ensembles might butt each other out and we may get some wildcard picks. Okay.....I liked Strathairn in Nomadland but a win seems ridiculous. He only has like two straight-on scenes. Is this race already totally Bosemans to win? 1. David Strathairn "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures) 2. Chadwick Boseman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix) 3. Bill Murray "On the Rocks" (A24/Apple TV Plus) 4. Leslie Odom, Jr. "One NIght in Miami" (Amazon Studios) 5. Lakeith Stanfield "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.) 6. Sacha Baron Cohen "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) 7. Frank Langella "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) 8. Mark Rylance "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix) 9. Kingsley Ben-Adir "One Night in Miami..." (Amazon Studios) 10. Shia LaBeouf "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix) Yes
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 28, 2020 5:23:21 GMT
Boseman seems to be the front runner here.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 28, 2020 16:34:52 GMT
My current predictions:
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom David Straithairn, Nomadland Bill Murray, On the Rocks Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
HM: Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah Charles Dance, Mank (or someone else from the same film) Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
I currently have Baron Cohen as lead for the time being. Some of the pundits have Ben-Adir as lead.
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Post by franklin on Sept 28, 2020 20:15:51 GMT
Don't rely on Variety predictions, other forums predictions seem more trustworthy.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 29, 2020 20:43:58 GMT
Boseman seems to be the front runner here. I disagree, not only because we haven't seen the movie, but because there's far more example of dead actors going nowhere on their campaigns than winning, and even then the ones that did- Finch and Ledger- were on huge hits and absurdly iconic performances that are among the most celebrated in the history of film.
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Post by stephen on Sept 29, 2020 21:04:55 GMT
Boseman seems to be the front runner here. I disagree, not only because we haven't seen the movie, but because there's far more example of dead actors going nowhere on their campaigns than winning, and even then the ones that did- Finch and Ledger- were on huge hits and absurdly iconic performances that are among the most celebrated in the history of film. While this is true, the level of outpouring of grief and respect Boseman has gotten since his passing has been unbelievable. His death has a zeitgeist-defining feel to it, and even now, stories are coming out about his generosity and his work ethic. And now he's got Netflix pushing his final film, which is already a major contender due to its pedigree and its leading actress. Boseman's role in it is borderline lead and very strong on paper. With the lack of a strong frontrunner elsewhere and with the timing of his posthumous release, the stars are aligning better than most others who got nominations after dying and failed to capitalize on them. It would be the perfect way to honor a respected actor who died before he could enjoy awards success, yet who already consecrated his place in the pop culture pantheon. He's not a Ledger-level lock, and Finch died a month before the awards ceremony (and even still would likely have won if he hadn't), but all Boseman really needs is for his performance to be good and I don't see anything really working against him.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 29, 2020 21:17:51 GMT
Yeah, but again, he isn't the first actor whose death was a shocking moment that caused waves (one only needs to look at James Dean, the original dead actor to be nominated-twice, both in very iconic movies that were BP nominees), and he isn't there to campaign personally and to lob people (remember someone in the HPFA justifying not nominating Gandolfini because he wasn't going to show up to the party anyway?).
Plus, of course, we don't know either the level of his performance, or the competition, or someone else creating a very good narrative (could easily see Murray doing it, for example), or, sadly, another shocking death coming that makes people focus on it.
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