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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 4:54:57 GMT
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. This feels a bit on the wishful side. Davis recieved equal praise to Boseman in the reviews. She is the odds on frontrunner to win everywhere (bookies, Goldderby etc) for a reason. Boseman may have performed better with the critics awards, but they are not competing against one another, so that narrative feels a bit opportunistic. And if you think Davis hasn't had significant campaigning press around her, you haven't been paying attention. Halle Berry giving a tearful interview declarations everywhere about being heartbroken that no black woman has won the Best Actress Oscar in 20 years since her is pretty much straight up effective campaigning for Davis: www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/halle-berry-heartbroken-no-black-23290782Davis has everything. The performance, the respect, the reviews, the narrative. Mulligan needs to worry about being nominated, before talk of winning even becomes credible. She is very likely competing with Kirby to even be nominated. Zendaya entering the picture also complicated her path, as they all fit in the "young hot babe" demographic, and will likely be cannibalising votes from each other. Mulligan's history of AMPAS ignoring all her performance since An Education also needs to be accounted for. Do they even like her? Why wouldn't both Mulligan and Kirby just get in together?
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2021 4:55:53 GMT
Loren can get the respected veteran nod like Isabelle Huppert, Charlotte Rampling. I can see her appealing to older members of the Academy. Whereas I can't see Best Actress stacked with 3 younger actresses in Kirby, Mulligan AND Zendaya. Like Stephen alluded to, this is the category that loves to award younger actors, plus Mulligan and Kirby aren't even THAT young anyway, they're both in their 30's. If the older members of the Academy want to go with an older respected actress and avoid younger stars (which I seriously doubt is a thought process many of them actually have), they'll just defer to Davis and McDormand, who while obviously aren't as old as Loren, still fit that bill. Just like with Franklin's Pryce comparison, both Huppert and Rampling were much stronger in their respected races than Loren. Fuck it, if they do end up going with and older respected veteran in a Netflix film, they'll just default to Streep. I don't think all 3 will be nominated. And Zendaya is the most vulnerable to miss.
Factually, if you look at the Best Actress winners in the last 10 years, they tend to be 40+. Exceptions were Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, who were in a lot of mainstream Hollywood films. And Brie Larson was the critics favorite.
The Academy membership still skews older 60+.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 18, 2021 4:58:04 GMT
This feels a bit on the wishful side. Davis recieved equal praise to Boseman in the reviews. She is the odds on frontrunner to win everywhere (bookies, Goldderby etc) for a reason. Boseman may have performed better with the critics awards, but they are not competing against one another, so that narrative feels a bit opportunistic. And if you think Davis hasn't had significant campaigning press around her, you haven't been paying attention. Halle Berry giving a tearful interview declarations everywhere about being heartbroken that no black woman has won the Best Actress Oscar in 20 years since her is pretty much straight up effective campaigning for Davis: www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/halle-berry-heartbroken-no-black-23290782Davis has everything. The performance, the respect, the reviews, the narrative. Mulligan needs to worry about being nominated, before talk of winning even becomes credible. She is very likely competing with Kirby to even be nominated. Zendaya entering the picture also complicated her path, as they all fit in the "young hot babe" demographic, and will likely be cannibalising votes from each other. Mulligan's history of AMPAS ignoring all her performance since An Education also needs to be accounted for. Do they even like her? Why wouldn't both Mulligan and Kirby just get in together? They can get in together. But because their demographic base appeal feels so essentially similar, the possibility of one hurting the other still exists.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 5:00:33 GMT
Like Stephen alluded to, this is the category that loves to award younger actors, plus Mulligan and Kirby aren't even THAT young anyway, they're both in their 30's. If the older members of the Academy want to go with an older respected actress and avoid younger stars (which I seriously doubt is a thought process many of them actually have), they'll just defer to Davis and McDormand, who while obviously aren't as old as Loren, still fit that bill. Just like with Franklin's Pryce comparison, both Huppert and Rampling were much stronger in their respected races than Loren. Fuck it, if they do end up going with and older respected veteran in a Netflix film, they'll just default to Streep. I don't think all 3 will be nominated. And Zendaya is the most vulnerable to miss.
Factually, if you look at the Best Actress winners in the last 10 years, they tend to be 40+. Exceptions were Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, who were in a lot of mainstream Hollywood films. And Brie Larson was the critics favorite.
The Academy membership still skews older 60+.
So almost half were under 40? That's a decent percentage, not sure that stat necessarily helps your case. Plus, I wasn't talking about winners anyway, just nominees. Multiple pundits have reported that even older voters are loving Promising Young Woman, so that shouldn't be a problem.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 5:03:19 GMT
Why wouldn't both Mulligan and Kirby just get in together? They can get in together. But because their demographic base appeal feels so essentially similar, the possibility of one hurting the other still exists. I don't think that will be much of an issue because they are 2 incredibly different performances and they clearly both have enough passion. If somehow only one were to get in, Mulligan definitely has the edge as she will be Focus' sole priority whilst Netflix also have to juggle Davis and Zendaya. Plus, Promising Young Woman will get a lot more support overall from other awards groups plus the various branches of the Academy.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2021 5:14:06 GMT
I don't think all 3 will be nominated. And Zendaya is the most vulnerable to miss.
Factually, if you look at the Best Actress winners in the last 10 years, they tend to be 40+. Exceptions were Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, who were in a lot of mainstream Hollywood films. And Brie Larson was the critics favorite.
The Academy membership still skews older 60+.
So almost half were under 40? That's a decent percentage, not sure that stat necessarily helps your case. Plus, I wasn't talking about winners anyway, just nominees. Multiple pundits have reported that even older voters are loving Promising Young Woman, so that shouldn't be a problem. I said that the younger actresses who have won in the last 10 years - were established names who made money for Hollywood. Exception was Brie Larson, who was the critics favorite.
Mulligan, Kirby, Zendaya pretty much share the same narrative, younger non mainstream actresses in indie type films.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 18, 2021 5:17:26 GMT
Don't really care who wins. I just wish the televised awards wouldn't all award the same person like they did in the 2017 and 2019 seasons. A jawdropping moment like Olivia Colman's win is always welcomed.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 18, 2021 5:19:36 GMT
So almost half were under 40? That's a decent percentage, not sure that stat necessarily helps your case. Plus, I wasn't talking about winners anyway, just nominees. Multiple pundits have reported that even older voters are loving Promising Young Woman, so that shouldn't be a problem. I said that the younger actresses who have won in the last 10 years - were established names who made money for Hollywood. Exception was Brie Larson, who was the critics favorite.
Mulligan, Kirby, Zendaya pretty much share the same narrative, younger non mainstream actresses in indie type films.
This. In theory Zendaya is the closest to the bankable young female superstar they like to award ( Stone, Lawrence, Portman etc), but this may be a bit too early in her rise for the win. She likely has big hits in her future, but isn't as established as those that won.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 5:36:00 GMT
Just so we're all clear, I'm not predicting either of those 3 to win. I still think it will be Davis.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 18, 2021 5:45:00 GMT
I too think it would be Davis. The last time a black actress who was a real threat to win in the category was ironically Viola Davis herself for The Help, and if it weren't for Meryl she would have won. It's just too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black best actress winner ever, especially in today's political climate. I would not be surprised at all if they decide to award Boseman and Davis together like they did with Washington and Berry, and I would not be surprised if they asked the latter to present these two awards to make it seem more obvious than it already was.
If winning recently didn't hurt Waltz and Ali's chances, I doubt it would hurt Davis'. Academy voters are way too egotistical to check who had won recently.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 18, 2021 12:33:19 GMT
1. Davis 2. Mulligan 3. McDormand 4. Kirby 5. Loren This. Loren can easily get that 5th spot. Andra Day's her only legit rival imo.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 12:44:03 GMT
1. Davis 2. Mulligan 3. McDormand 4. Kirby 5. Loren This. Loren can easily get that 5th spot. Andra Day's her only legit rival imo. Doubt Zendaya at your own risk.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2021 16:47:23 GMT
1. Davis 2. Mulligan 3. McDormand 4. Kirby 5. Loren This. Loren can easily get that 5th spot. Andra Day's her only legit rival imo. Loren may take that spot but it’s pretty ridiculous to say Day is her only legit rival.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 18, 2021 17:58:36 GMT
1. Davis 2. McDo 3. Kirby 4. Mulligan
The spots 3-4 might be swapped. For the fifth spot I hope it will be Loren. If not, I guess Zendaya.
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Post by quetee on Jan 18, 2021 20:58:52 GMT
Right now, I'm predicting: Viola Carey Frances ElizabethZenyada Elizabeth Moss? Yep.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 19, 2021 1:12:28 GMT
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Archie
Based
Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Feb 3, 2021 14:47:13 GMT
This. Loren can easily get that 5th spot. Andra Day's her only legit rival imo. Doubt Zendaya at your own risk.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 3, 2021 14:50:50 GMT
Doubt Zendaya at your own risk. Haha, fair enough. Too be fair, Malcolm and Marie wasn't Rotten on RT a couple of weeks ago.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 3, 2021 15:43:37 GMT
Haha, fair enough. Too be fair, Malcolm and Marie wasn't Rotten on RT a couple of weeks ago. I was right their with you but Day has def taken over as favorite for that 5th spot. There’s still a path for Zendaya but it’s looking mighty slim.
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 15:46:26 GMT
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Post by JangoB on Feb 3, 2021 15:47:32 GMT
Yeah, it hit me today that Mulligan actually makes perfect sense as the potential winner. With the film clearly being liked, it's very possible!
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Post by quetee on Feb 4, 2021 18:25:52 GMT
Well, gotta change my nods. LMAO. I was hoping Moss would get something but that's not happening now.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 4, 2021 18:34:15 GMT
Mulligan is obviously winning. Had the same feeling about Parasite last year. Gonna be Bumping Up My Post for the next little while here
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 5, 2021 0:51:26 GMT
Mulligan is obviously winning. Had the same feeling about Parasite last year. Gonna be Bumping Up My Post for the next little while here As long as we get to bump every asinine comment you've made about Black is King or The Prom. Also, come on, let's not act like predicting a Mulligan win just two weeks ago, is some Nostradamus level insight.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 5, 2021 2:28:50 GMT
Gonna be Bumping Up My Post for the next little while here As long as we get to bump every asinine comment you've made about Black is King or The Prom. Also, come on, let's not act like predicting a Mulligan win just two weeks ago, is some Nostradamus level insight. I see the revisionist history has already begun..... And please, be my guest. BiK needs all the publicity it can get at this point
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