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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 17, 2021 22:41:24 GMT
Starring in an indie film, living as a nomad for months and interacting with no actors certainly has its own difficulty... Actually, carrying the whole movie in her shoulders, something Davis doesn't do in MRBB. Yeah, that's not how actors evaluate performances on a technical level. As her own director said, McDormand is more or less playing a version of herself. How technically impressive actors will find that is highly questionable. Enough for a nod? Sure. For a 3rd win? Unlikely, imho. Critics often love those kind of performances from actresses, especially in indie films. But it's more often the flashy and/or transformational work from people like Davis that win the Oscar. I think McDormand stands a better chance of winning another Oscar for The Tragedy Of Macbeth. By virtue of being Shakespeare, she cannot be dinged with the "playing herself" card. If you ask me, Davis is winning. But only because they placed her leading while she is not. As for the performances themselves, transformational is all it is for Davis. That's my opinion and that's how I evaluate these two performances. Don't worry though, I'm not voting for the Oscars.
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2021 22:50:24 GMT
I'm starting to get a real funny feeling about Mulligan.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 17, 2021 23:01:13 GMT
Viola just won the Philidelphia Film Critics Best Actress Prize.
She arguably doesn't even need critics awards as much as the rest of her competition because her performance is so transformational, flashy and industry-bait, so the fact that she's winning critics awards and getting runner-up citations in some of the major critics awards show how tough she'll be to take down.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2021 0:47:48 GMT
Right now, I'm predicting: Viola Carey Frances ElizabethZenyada Elizabeth Moss?
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2021 1:31:46 GMT
I'm starting to get a real funny feeling about Mulligan. That she might snubbed. Possbliy.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 1:59:40 GMT
Right now, I'm predicting: Viola Carey Frances Elizabeth Zenyada Uhmmm, surely you don't mean Elisabeth Moss??? She probably isn't even Top 10.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 1:59:58 GMT
I'm starting to get a real funny feeling about Mulligan. In a good or bad way?
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Post by stephen on Jan 18, 2021 2:17:58 GMT
I'm starting to get a real funny feeling about Mulligan. In a good or bad way? A good way. She's right smack in the normal demographic of Best Actress winners in terms of age and general placement in career. Her film is getting insane acclaim even outside of her and is positioned to make a run at Original Screenplay, as Emerald Fennell is getting a great amount of buzz herself. People are seeing it and commenting on it very positively, including folks within the industry (anecdotally, I've seen several AMPAS members remark about how much they liked her performance). Mulligan's film, while dark, isn't an unfriendly watch at all, and I think she's gaining a lot of critical steam at the right moment. She's second out of the Best Actress contenders in terms of critics' wins, and while those don't mean much individually, overall they say quite a bit, as it means she's taking some of the oxygen out of the room that would go to other contenders (i.e. Kirby). Promising Young Woman going Drama at the Globes isn't the best, because Comedy Actress would've been a lay-up. But I think there's a very strong chance she could win there anyway. But BAFTA will certainly prioritize her; they've given her a win before, and if they think she's win-competitive for the Oscar, they might rally around her to give her that boost. And Mulligan's been around long enough and worked with enough people in Hollywood to be someone who could win SAG. Bottom-line: don't sleep on Mulligan.
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Post by michael128 on Jan 18, 2021 2:29:16 GMT
Mulligan is obviously winning. Had the same feeling about Parasite last year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 2:44:47 GMT
A good way. She's right smack in the normal demographic of Best Actress winners in terms of age and general placement in career. Her film is getting insane acclaim even outside of her and is positioned to make a run at Original Screenplay, as Emerald Fennell is getting a great amount of buzz herself. People are seeing it and commenting on it very positively, including folks within the industry (anecdotally, I've seen several AMPAS members remark about how much they liked her performance). Mulligan's film, while dark, isn't an unfriendly watch at all, and I think she's gaining a lot of critical steam at the right moment. She's second out of the Best Actress contenders in terms of critics' wins, and while those don't mean much individually, overall they say quite a bit, as it means she's taking some of the oxygen out of the room that would go to other contenders (i.e. Kirby). Promising Young Woman going Drama at the Globes isn't the best, because Comedy Actress would've been a lay-up. But I think there's a very strong chance she could win there anyway. But BAFTA will certainly prioritize her; they've given her a win before, and if they think she's win-competitive for the Oscar, they might rally around her to give her that boost. And Mulligan's been around long enough and worked with enough people in Hollywood to be someone who could win SAG. Bottom-line: don't sleep on Mulligan.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2021 2:49:20 GMT
A good way. She's right smack in the normal demographic of Best Actress winners in terms of age and general placement in career. Her film is getting insane acclaim even outside of her and is positioned to make a run at Original Screenplay, as Emerald Fennell is getting a great amount of buzz herself. People are seeing it and commenting on it very positively, including folks within the industry (anecdotally, I've seen several AMPAS members remark about how much they liked her performance). Mulligan's film, while dark, isn't an unfriendly watch at all, and I think she's gaining a lot of critical steam at the right moment. She's second out of the Best Actress contenders in terms of critics' wins, and while those don't mean much individually, overall they say quite a bit, as it means she's taking some of the oxygen out of the room that would go to other contenders (i.e. Kirby). Promising Young Woman going Drama at the Globes isn't the best, because Comedy Actress would've been a lay-up. But I think there's a very strong chance she could win there anyway. But BAFTA will certainly prioritize her; they've given her a win before, and if they think she's win-competitive for the Oscar, they might rally around her to give her that boost. And Mulligan's been around long enough and worked with enough people in Hollywood to be someone who could win SAG. Bottom-line: don't sleep on Mulligan. I sure hope you’re right.
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Post by franklin on Jan 18, 2021 2:56:58 GMT
1. Davis 2. Mulligan 3. McDormand 4. Kirby 5. Loren
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 3:03:11 GMT
Oh wow, there are actually still people predicting Loren. Crazy world.
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Post by franklin on Jan 18, 2021 3:28:06 GMT
Oh wow, there are actually still people predicting Loren. Crazy world. Trust me, Loren will pull a Jonathan Pryce, thus will surprisingly get in as the fifth spot over a young upstart like Zendaya (just like what happened with Egerton).
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 3:34:34 GMT
Oh wow, there are actually still people predicting Loren. Crazy world. Trust me, Loren will pull a Jonathan Pryce, thus will surprisingly get in as the fifth spot over a young upstart like Zendaya (just like what happened with Egerton). Loren is weaker than Pryce was at this stage, and Zendaya is definitely stronger than Egerton was. Pryce was also aided by the fact that The Two Popes had a nice showing overall at the Oscars, Globes and BAFTA. The Life Ahead feels like one of the biggest afterthoughts of the season, France didn't even select it as their International Feature Film submission. Loren is also at a disadvantage because it's arguably a supporting role and Netflix has like 4 contenders above her.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2021 3:58:10 GMT
A good way. She's right smack in the normal demographic of Best Actress winners in terms of age and general placement in career. Her film is getting insane acclaim even outside of her and is positioned to make a run at Original Screenplay, as Emerald Fennell is getting a great amount of buzz herself. People are seeing it and commenting on it very positively, including folks within the industry (anecdotally, I've seen several AMPAS members remark about how much they liked her performance). Mulligan's film, while dark, isn't an unfriendly watch at all, and I think she's gaining a lot of critical steam at the right moment. She's second out of the Best Actress contenders in terms of critics' wins, and while those don't mean much individually, overall they say quite a bit, as it means she's taking some of the oxygen out of the room that would go to other contenders (i.e. Kirby). Promising Young Woman going Drama at the Globes isn't the best, because Comedy Actress would've been a lay-up. But I think there's a very strong chance she could win there anyway. But BAFTA will certainly prioritize her; they've given her a win before, and if they think she's win-competitive for the Oscar, they might rally around her to give her that boost. And Mulligan's been around long enough and worked with enough people in Hollywood to be someone who could win SAG. Bottom-line: don't sleep on Mulligan. I can't see where she will over come Viola Davis. Mulligan needed to be undeniable with the critics - to even be a serious contender. She likely won't be in a big Best Picture nominee.
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Post by stephen on Jan 18, 2021 4:06:35 GMT
A good way. She's right smack in the normal demographic of Best Actress winners in terms of age and general placement in career. Her film is getting insane acclaim even outside of her and is positioned to make a run at Original Screenplay, as Emerald Fennell is getting a great amount of buzz herself. People are seeing it and commenting on it very positively, including folks within the industry (anecdotally, I've seen several AMPAS members remark about how much they liked her performance). Mulligan's film, while dark, isn't an unfriendly watch at all, and I think she's gaining a lot of critical steam at the right moment. She's second out of the Best Actress contenders in terms of critics' wins, and while those don't mean much individually, overall they say quite a bit, as it means she's taking some of the oxygen out of the room that would go to other contenders (i.e. Kirby). Promising Young Woman going Drama at the Globes isn't the best, because Comedy Actress would've been a lay-up. But I think there's a very strong chance she could win there anyway. But BAFTA will certainly prioritize her; they've given her a win before, and if they think she's win-competitive for the Oscar, they might rally around her to give her that boost. And Mulligan's been around long enough and worked with enough people in Hollywood to be someone who could win SAG. Bottom-line: don't sleep on Mulligan. I can't see where she will over come Viola Davis. Mulligan needed to be undeniable with the critics - to even be a serious contender. She likely won't be in a big Best Picture nominee.
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2021 4:08:42 GMT
Trust me, Loren will pull a Jonathan Pryce, thus will surprisingly get in as the fifth spot over a young upstart like Zendaya (just like what happened with Egerton). Loren is weaker than Pryce was at this stage, and Zendaya is definitely stronger than Egerton was. Pryce was also aided by the fact that The Two Popes had a nice showing overall at the Oscars, Globes and BAFTA. The Life Ahead feels like one of the biggest afterthoughts of the season, France didn't even select it as their International Feature Film submission. Loren is also at a disadvantage because it's arguably a supporting role and Netflix has like 4 contenders above her. Loren can get the respected veteran nod like Isabelle Huppert, Charlotte Rampling. I can see her appealing to older members of the Academy. Whereas I can't see Best Actress stacked with 3 younger actresses in Kirby, Mulligan AND Zendaya.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2021 4:18:52 GMT
I can't see where she will over come Viola Davis. Mulligan needed to be undeniable with the critics - to even be a serious contender. She likely won't be in a big Best Picture nominee.
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. Funny, you were ok with Olivia Colman winning a 2nd Oscar in even a shorter time. Yet she has been more missed with critics than Davis.
Davis will likely be a Best Picture nominee. She should easily win BFCA, the Globe, SAG. And BAFTA have more about predicting the Oscars. She's also a GREAT campaigner.
She give the Academy their morning after head buzz: "Viola Davis becomes first African American Actress to win 2 acting Oscars - and gives a moving tribute to co-star Chadwick Boseman"
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 4:24:55 GMT
Loren is weaker than Pryce was at this stage, and Zendaya is definitely stronger than Egerton was. Pryce was also aided by the fact that The Two Popes had a nice showing overall at the Oscars, Globes and BAFTA. The Life Ahead feels like one of the biggest afterthoughts of the season, France didn't even select it as their International Feature Film submission. Loren is also at a disadvantage because it's arguably a supporting role and Netflix has like 4 contenders above her. Loren can get the respected veteran nod like Isabelle Huppert, Charlotte Rampling. I can see her appealing to older members of the Academy. Whereas I can't see Best Actress stacked with 3 younger actresses in Kirby, Mulligan AND Zendaya. Like Stephen alluded to, this is the category that loves to award younger actors, plus Mulligan and Kirby aren't even THAT young anyway, they're both in their 30's. If the older members of the Academy want to go with an older respected actress and avoid younger stars (which I seriously doubt is a thought process many of them actually have), they'll just defer to Davis and McDormand, who while obviously aren't as old as Loren, still fit that bill. Just like with Franklin's Pryce comparison, both Huppert and Rampling were much stronger in their respected races than Loren. Fuck it, if they do end up going with and older respected veteran in a Netflix film, they'll just default to Streep.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 4:26:06 GMT
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. Funny, you were ok with Olivia Colman winning a 2nd Oscar in even a shorter time. Yet she has been more missed with critics than Davis.
Davis will likely be a Best Picture nominee. She should easily win BFCA, the Globe, SAG. And BAFTA have more about predicting the Oscars. She's also a GREAT campaigner.
She give the Academy their morning after head buzz: "Viola Davis becomes first African American Actress to win 2 acting Oscars - and gives a moving tribute to co-star Chadwick Boseman"
Promising Young Woman could very easily pick up a BP nom.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 4:26:57 GMT
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. Funny, you were ok with Olivia Colman winning a 2nd Oscar in even a shorter time. Yet she has been more missed with critics than Davis.
Davis will likely be a Best Picture nominee. She should easily win BFCA, the Globe, SAG. And BAFTA have more about predicting the Oscars. She's also a GREAT campaigner.
She give the Academy their morning after head buzz: "Viola Davis becomes first African American Actress to win 2 acting Oscars - and gives a moving tribute to co-star Chadwick Boseman"
You're tripping if you think Academy voters have 'morning after headline buzz' in there minds AT ALL when they vote.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 18, 2021 4:27:38 GMT
I can't see where she will over come Viola Davis. Mulligan needed to be undeniable with the critics - to even be a serious contender. She likely won't be in a big Best Picture nominee.
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. This feels a bit on the wishful side. Davis recieved equal praise to Boseman in the reviews. She is the odds on frontrunner to win everywhere (bookies, Goldderby etc) for a reason. Boseman may have performed better with the critics awards, but they are not competing against one another, so that narrative feels a bit opportunistic. And if you think Davis hasn't had significant campaigning press around her, you haven't been paying attention. Halle Berry giving a tearful interview declarations everywhere about being heartbroken that no black woman has won the Best Actress Oscar in 20 years since her is pretty much straight up effective campaigning for Davis: www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/halle-berry-heartbroken-no-black-23290782Davis has everything. The performance, the respect, the reviews, the narrative. Mulligan needs to worry about being nominated, before talk of winning even becomes credible. She is very likely competing with Kirby to even be nominated. Zendaya entering the picture also complicated her path, as they all fit in the "young hot babe" demographic, and will likely be cannibalising votes from each other. Mulligan's history of AMPAS ignoring all her performances since An Education also needs to be accounted for. Do they even like her?
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Post by stephen on Jan 18, 2021 4:28:32 GMT
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. Funny, you were ok with Olivia Colman winning a 2nd Oscar in even a shorter time. Yet she has been more missed with critics than Davis.
Davis will likely be a Best Picture nominee. She should easily win BFCA, the Globe, SAG. And BAFTA have more about predicting the Oscars. She's also a GREAT campaigner.
Colman has a much weaker field to contend with than Davis does (and admittedly, I didn't foresee the slow-ass rollout of The Father with critics when I was touting her and Hopkins), and her primary competition thus far are in films that are either outside of the Academy's comfort zone (Bakalova) or historically don't register with voters on a demographic level (Youn). Seyfried, her biggest competitor on paper, doesn't get the major moments that one would expect from an acting winner. She would make an unusual winner just because of that factor alone (though by no means an undeserving one). Obviously, second wins can and do happen more readily nowadays, but you'd think they'd make more of a big deal in getting the red carpet rolling out for a historical win for Viola Davis. That second win would mean more than Christoph Waltz's or even Mahershala Ali's, just because she would be the first woman of color to coup two acting wins, and be the second Best Actress winner in history. But I just think that Boseman is the main talking point of his film, and I think that's where that narrative will be focusing. Davis could conceivably win, and there's a lot of race to be run, but I am just not seeing the consecration narrative building yet, and usually, critics do like to be the trendsetters to get that ball rolling. And yet, who's reaping most of the Best Actress critics' prizes? A woman that people keep jeering as "playing herself."
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 18, 2021 4:34:48 GMT
The thing is, I don't think the narrative is really around Viola the way others seem to think. Boseman's the one who is really reaping the praise from that film, and almost all of the press has been in regards to him. Furthermore, Davis's moment in 2016 is still pretty fresh; to think she's going to win a second trophy in four years for another August Wilson adaptation is a tall order anyway. Mulligan didn't need to be undeniable. She just needed to be present. The discourse on the film is very positive and, furthermore, it's doing very well with audiences and potential voters. If anything, Davis probably needs the "undeniable" narrative more to justify a second win so soon, and a groundbreaking one at that. Funny, you were ok with Olivia Colman winning a 2nd Oscar in even a shorter time. Yet she has been more missed with critics than Davis.
Davis will likely be a Best Picture nominee. She should easily win BFCA, the Globe, SAG. And BAFTA have more about predicting the Oscars. She's also a GREAT campaigner.
She give the Academy their morning after head buzz: "Viola Davis becomes first African American Actress to win 2 acting Oscars - and gives a moving tribute to co-star Chadwick Boseman"
Agreed that Davis is an expert campaigner. I don't know if her team had any hand in Halle Berry coming out with her recent statements, but in campaign terms that is how you solidify your narrative (outside of the performance itself)
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