Post by chris3 on Dec 13, 2018 1:02:15 GMT
Based on the recent awards body noms, I feel like The Favourite is officially out of contention for a BP win. Green Book is also going to get a bunch of noms but won't win anything (besides maybe Ali). They won't want another Driving Miss Daisy situation.
Looks to me like a three-way race between A Star Is Born, Roma, and BlacKkKlansman. But which one will it be? 1) ASIB is a crowd favorite that has made a ton of money, but then again they might not want to go for a show-biz remake when other more "important" films are in the running. I just don't see it going all the way. 2) I haven't seen Roma yet but much has already been written about its Oscar hindrances: Netflix, foreign, B&W, slow-paced. But it also has some clear advantages: a vote for a Mexican film is a vote against Trump, Cuaron is possibly a lock, and of course, y'know, the fact that many are calling it a masterpiece, the best of the decade, an intimate epic, a technical marvel, etc (which is sadly almost inconsequential when it comes to the Oscars). Still, I can't imagine the Oscars will be cool enough to give their top prize to a foreign film that most mainstream tastes will find boring. 3) BlacKkKlansman was never a huge favorite for the win, but it's also over-performing recently, there's a chance Lee might take Cuaron's Director Oscar as an apology for Do the Right Thing and to finally make history with a long overdue win for a black person in the category (and who better than Lee, really?), and the Oscars may want to make a political statement and this is the safe, conventional choice to make said statement. Think about it. We're getting a whole slew of African American-focused films in the BP field for the first time ever, so it'd be kind of weird if none of them won the prize. Green Book is too white savior, Beale Street won't make enough money, and Black Panther is, let's face it, a slightly above-average superhero movie that has no business being in the category. I'm starting to feel like Lee's film has the edge and might net a surprise win. BlacKkKlansman is a modest hit, is entertaining and adequately-crafted but also incredibly safe, mainstream, sensationalized pablum that is nowhere near as confrontational or provocative as Lee's far superior early work, and thus the Academy will surely love it. Don't count it out.
But yeah, I don't think The Favourite is winning. For those that have seen it (I'm still waiting for it to go wide), how "Lanthimos" is it? I've found all of his previous films to be excellent but also intensely off-putting (I mean that as a compliment), and extremely unfriendly to Oscar sensibilities. Could that have led to its under-performance at SAG, or is The Favourite way more digestible than his previous work? I pegged it for the win a couple months ago.
Looks to me like a three-way race between A Star Is Born, Roma, and BlacKkKlansman. But which one will it be? 1) ASIB is a crowd favorite that has made a ton of money, but then again they might not want to go for a show-biz remake when other more "important" films are in the running. I just don't see it going all the way. 2) I haven't seen Roma yet but much has already been written about its Oscar hindrances: Netflix, foreign, B&W, slow-paced. But it also has some clear advantages: a vote for a Mexican film is a vote against Trump, Cuaron is possibly a lock, and of course, y'know, the fact that many are calling it a masterpiece, the best of the decade, an intimate epic, a technical marvel, etc (which is sadly almost inconsequential when it comes to the Oscars). Still, I can't imagine the Oscars will be cool enough to give their top prize to a foreign film that most mainstream tastes will find boring. 3) BlacKkKlansman was never a huge favorite for the win, but it's also over-performing recently, there's a chance Lee might take Cuaron's Director Oscar as an apology for Do the Right Thing and to finally make history with a long overdue win for a black person in the category (and who better than Lee, really?), and the Oscars may want to make a political statement and this is the safe, conventional choice to make said statement. Think about it. We're getting a whole slew of African American-focused films in the BP field for the first time ever, so it'd be kind of weird if none of them won the prize. Green Book is too white savior, Beale Street won't make enough money, and Black Panther is, let's face it, a slightly above-average superhero movie that has no business being in the category. I'm starting to feel like Lee's film has the edge and might net a surprise win. BlacKkKlansman is a modest hit, is entertaining and adequately-crafted but also incredibly safe, mainstream, sensationalized pablum that is nowhere near as confrontational or provocative as Lee's far superior early work, and thus the Academy will surely love it. Don't count it out.
But yeah, I don't think The Favourite is winning. For those that have seen it (I'm still waiting for it to go wide), how "Lanthimos" is it? I've found all of his previous films to be excellent but also intensely off-putting (I mean that as a compliment), and extremely unfriendly to Oscar sensibilities. Could that have led to its under-performance at SAG, or is The Favourite way more digestible than his previous work? I pegged it for the win a couple months ago.