The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 12, 2018 16:24:25 GMT
It was still at the top of guru's and pundits' lists. I still don't see how that is relevant since you could have used the same argument for the past year race but that took everyone by surprise. Again, The Favorite couldn't get Ensemble even with 3 nominations. This film is weak and Yorgos may not show up at DGA. actually, it wasnt. Three Billboards was the favorite. Only 4 out of 30 experts at Gold derby picked Shape to win. In fact, more people here picked Shape to win compared to Gold derby. I still don't see how this relates to The Favorite
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 16:25:26 GMT
I mean, only people on here were saying she wasn't a lock, but still... Maybe y'all are done?
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2018 16:30:32 GMT
Good, now we can finally bury the notion of Jordan getting in
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 12, 2018 16:33:56 GMT
actually, it wasnt. Three Billboards was the favorite. Only 4 out of 30 experts at Gold derby picked Shape to win. In fact, more people here picked Shape to win compared to Gold derby. I still don't see how this relates to The Favorite He was talking about the same thing you were...
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wattsnew
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Post by wattsnew on Dec 12, 2018 16:35:11 GMT
I mean, only people on here were saying she wasn't a lock, but still... Maybe y'all are done? It was ridiculous. Maybe they can give up on the idea of Kidman getting nominated for anything too?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 16:37:27 GMT
I mean, only people on here were saying she wasn't a lock, but still... Maybe y'all are done? It was ridiculous. Maybe they can give up on the idea of Kidman getting nominated for anything too? Well, after Close, Colman, and Gaga, I think any combination of Aparicio, Blunt, Collette, Kidman, and McCarthy makes sense to round out the five nominees... But the constant nagging that Close wasn't going to be nominated reeked of ageism and sexism to me.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 16:40:00 GMT
I mean, only people on here were saying she wasn't a lock, but still... Maybe y'all are done? At what point does a person even become a lock? She's done well to hang in here as long as she has, but don't try to overlook that she had an awful lot to contend with to get here. She has by far the tiniest film of the bunch, with her being the only thing looking to get nominated from it, against people who are in bigger films with more opportunities for multiple nominations. You may have had confidence, but there was a general sense of doubt that she was entirely secure, whereas Colman and Gaga were fairly agreed upon as being safe. She got in, but that doesn't mean she was ever a lock, especially when there were those who thought she'd built a Moore-like path to the end by winning everything.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 16:41:14 GMT
I mean, only people on here were saying she wasn't a lock, but still... Maybe y'all are done? At what point does a person even become a lock? She's done well to hang in here as long as she has, but don't try to overlook that she had an awful lot to contend with to get here. She has by far the tiniest film of the bunch, with her being the only thing looking to get nominated from it, against people who are in bigger films with more opportunities for multiple nominations. You may have had confidence, but there was a general sense of doubt that she was entirely secure, whereas Colman and Gaga were fairly agreed upon as being safe. She got in, but that doesn't mean she was ever a lock, especially when there were those who thought she'd built a Moore-like path to the end by winning everything. K.
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wattsnew
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Post by wattsnew on Dec 12, 2018 16:41:23 GMT
It was ridiculous. Maybe they can give up on the idea of Kidman getting nominated for anything too? Well, after Close, Colman, and Gaga, I think any combination of Aparicio, Blunt, Collette, Kidman, and McCarthy makes sense to round out the five nominees... But the constant nagging that Close wasn't going to be nominated wreaked of ageism and sexism to me. I think the 5 nominated here st SAG will be our Oscar 5. Aparicio hasn't shown up anywhere so I can't see how she could happen. I feel like Collette really needed to show up here for her to have any Oscars chance. McCarthy feels like a lock now, and Blunt just about. But yes i agree about Close. The whole brigade against her has been incredibly ageist.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 16:42:09 GMT
At what point does a person even become a lock? She's done well to hang in here as long as she has, but don't try to overlook that she had an awful lot to contend with to get here. She has by far the tiniest film of the bunch, with her being the only thing looking to get nominated from it, against people who are in bigger films with more opportunities for multiple nominations. You may have had confidence, but there was a general sense of doubt that she was entirely secure, whereas Colman and Gaga were fairly agreed upon as being safe. She got in, but that doesn't mean she was ever a lock, especially when there were those who thought she'd built a Moore-like path to the end by winning everything. K. Good to know you're just as willing to back up your arguments with clear, thorough discussion as always.
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 12, 2018 16:46:35 GMT
I genuinely think the case is rested. Amy Adams scored 3 nominations in GG (btw, they love her; she's had consecutive wins there) and 2 nominations in SAG. She's so winning. King will still be nominated though. I don't see how she could miss a nomination. People were saying the case was rested in 2012 when Waltz missed SAG (yes, due to screener issues, but still) and were calling the race for Jones. Could be the same issue afflicting If Beale Street Could Talk, as it was completely shut out and comes from a floundering studio. Vice at least has the A-lister recognition that got people to go out and see it for Annapurna. SAG is a crucial award, but Adams hasn't won it yet and there's still a good amount of race to be run. Waltz was also campaigned for lead for SAG, he didn't switch to supporting until after the snub.
The only other time I think someone won with a SAG snub was Marcia Gay Harden, but then again maybe voters looked at themselves and said "Are really going to give Judi Dench a second Oscar for Chocolat"
Then people thought Stallone could win without out one, but that obviously didn't work out.
Either way it is indeed a huge miss that helps Adams greatly. Especially since here main competition in Stone and Weisz are previous winners here.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 16:51:59 GMT
People were saying the case was rested in 2012 when Waltz missed SAG (yes, due to screener issues, but still) and were calling the race for Jones. Could be the same issue afflicting If Beale Street Could Talk, as it was completely shut out and comes from a floundering studio. Vice at least has the A-lister recognition that got people to go out and see it for Annapurna. SAG is a crucial award, but Adams hasn't won it yet and there's still a good amount of race to be run. Waltz was also campaigned for lead for SAG, he didn't switch to supporting until after the snub.
The only other time I think someone won with a SAG snub was Marcia Gay Harden, but then again maybe voters looked at themselves and said "Are really going to give Judi Dench a second Oscar for Chocolat"
Then people thought Stallone could win without out one, but that obviously didn't work out.
Either way it is indeed a huge miss that helps Adams greatly. Especially since here main competition in Stone and Weisz are previous winners here.
I thought by then that they decided to run Waltz/DiCaprio as joint supporting, but I trust your memory. I'm not gonna deny that Adams gets a massive boost here. She did, but that boost is more because her perceived main competition missed. It should also be said that Robbie is a huge question-mark; could she ride a wave of goodwill at the last minute? And there's Blunt with her double nods as well; does she have a better shot at lead or supporting here? There's definitely a path now for Adams, and King has found that it isn't going to be as smooth sailing as we thought it would be a week ago. That's why I'm very curious to see how BAFTA goes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 16:58:31 GMT
Good to know you're just as willing to back up your arguments with clear, thorough discussion as always. I mean, I could go into the elaborate, A-List schmoozing events giving her the "living legend" treatment arranged specifically for her in both the LA-area and NYC. I could mention her stellar reviews - most calling it her greatest performance since Dangerous Liaisons. I could go into her film's impressive box office (more impressive than Can You Ever Forgive Me?). I could go into the general feeling (both in the industry and among casual moviegoers) that it's "her time." I could mention that she's her heavyweight studio's sole "big push" this year... But at this point, that all seems pretty irrelevant.
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Post by Pavan on Dec 12, 2018 17:11:11 GMT
Bohemian Rhapsody is getting a BP nom at the Oscars. Mark my words.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 17:12:57 GMT
Good to know you're just as willing to back up your arguments with clear, thorough discussion as always. I mean, I could go into the elaborate, A-List schmoozing events giving her the "living legend" treatment arranged specifically for her in both the LA-area and NYC. I could go into her film's impressive box office (more impressive than Can You Ever Forgive Me?). I could go into the general feeling (both in the industry and among casual moviegoers) that it's "her time." But at this point, that all seems pretty irrelevant. All of that is good to have and SPC has definitely done their work to campaign for her, but it doesn't answer my question. If Close wins, can we suddenly look back and go, "Okay, she was locked in from Day 1?" Because I don't think she was. She and her studio had to work the circuit hard to keep her name and film in the conversation. They did a fine job of doing so, but they had to put the work in, getting those tributes out there to build the "it's her time" narrative. But does that mean she was a lock? The way I see it, she's been hovering around the 3/4 spot for much of the race, and benefited greatly from other contenders like Davis and (by the looks of it) Collette and Aparicio dropping out. Even those who thought she had a shot of missing still predicted her to get in; they just didn't think she was as big of a certainty as Gaga or Colman. As for McCarthy's film, she at least has Grant winning awards (enough to the point that he's probably the frontrunner right now), so in terms of awards prestige, regardless of box office, it's ahead of The Wife in that respect. But their films have a very similar subject matter and general profile and, oddly enough, a similar acting dynamic that I figured they'd be fighting for the same bloc of voters for the same spot (there were a lot of people who thought Pryce would get in off the strength of his co-star and the weakness of his category). But when contenders started to drop, Close and McCarthy got more secure. And then you have Blunt, who is more of what the Academy tends to like in their Best Actress mold, slotting in there with them. So it all comes back to this: no one doubted Close was a contender. But people, myself included, doubted she was a lock for it, just because she'd lost six times in the past. And perhaps BAFTA will shake things up more; I can see someone like Ronan being a stealth surprise, if Robbie was able to break in.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 12, 2018 17:13:01 GMT
I mean, last year people were saying the same thing about The Shape of Water. It still got an extremely healthy amount of individual nominations, and BAFTA will surely go hard for it. PGA/DGA will be the real test for any of these. With that said, don't count out BlacKkKlansman. It's getting a nice revive. Hopefully, the DGA snobs don't kill it. Since when is DGA a bunch of snobs. It's the Directors' branch of the Academy that are snobs.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 12, 2018 17:15:58 GMT
Bohemian Rhapsody is getting a BP nom at the Oscars. Mark my words. It probably will. Damn, I have to see it now
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 12, 2018 17:28:18 GMT
- Margot but no Saoirse? Interesting. Well Lead actress is more crowded. Robbie can sneak into the 5th spot. I don't think Ronan has much of a shot.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 12, 2018 17:30:58 GMT
Waltz was also campaigned for lead for SAG, he didn't switch to supporting until after the snub.
The only other time I think someone won with a SAG snub was Marcia Gay Harden, but then again maybe voters looked at themselves and said "Are really going to give Judi Dench a second Oscar for Chocolat"
Then people thought Stallone could win without out one, but that obviously didn't work out.
Either way it is indeed a huge miss that helps Adams greatly. Especially since here main competition in Stone and Weisz are previous winners here.
I thought by then that they decided to run Waltz/DiCaprio as joint supporting, but I trust your memory. I'm not gonna deny that Adams gets a massive boost here. She did, but that boost is more because her perceived main competition missed. It should also be said that Robbie is a huge question-mark; could she ride a wave of goodwill at the last minute? And there's Blunt with her double nods as well; does she have a better shot at lead or supporting here? There's definitely a path now for Adams, and King has found that it isn't going to be as smooth sailing as we thought it would be a week ago. That's why I'm very curious to see how BAFTA goes. I still don't understand how Waltz wasn't lead. Does he have the longest screen time among supporting wins? DiCaprio was a true supporting role.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 17:38:42 GMT
I thought by then that they decided to run Waltz/DiCaprio as joint supporting, but I trust your memory. I'm not gonna deny that Adams gets a massive boost here. She did, but that boost is more because her perceived main competition missed. It should also be said that Robbie is a huge question-mark; could she ride a wave of goodwill at the last minute? And there's Blunt with her double nods as well; does she have a better shot at lead or supporting here? There's definitely a path now for Adams, and King has found that it isn't going to be as smooth sailing as we thought it would be a week ago. That's why I'm very curious to see how BAFTA goes. I still don't understand how Waltz wasn't lead. Does he have the longest screen time among supporting wins? DiCaprio was a true supporting role. I consider Waltz co-lead, but if I squint, I can see an argument for him being supporting. Can't really say the same for, say, PSH in The Master, as I feel that is clearly about two men and their interactions. I reasoned back in 2012 that DiCaprio was going to find it a tough path to a win for that role. Repugnant, monstrously racist characters like that just don't tend to win Oscars. Say what you will about Rockwell's winning performance, but the bigotry of his character was largely passive and informed by other characters (the one time he says the n-word, for instance, it's in response to McDormand saying it). DiCaprio's is overt, in-your-face and noxious in a way that I just don't think would've resonated with voters enough to give him a win for it. I reasoned the exact same thing a year later with Fassbender, and a few years later with Leigh (although Leigh surprised me by actually getting nominated in the first place). Certain types of roles just aren't going to be an easy pill for Oscar voters to swallow, and foaming-at-the-mouth racists are chief among those. If a character wins for playing a character with bigotry, they are much more low-key and downplayed about it, and usually there's some semblance of an "awakening" in the course of the movie that shows them the error of their ways. DiCaprio obviously never goes through that in his movie.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Dec 12, 2018 18:10:35 GMT
Not only did BP get nodded again but Blunt got in for A FUCKING QUIET PLACE?
Come the fuck onnnnnnnn...
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 12, 2018 18:14:30 GMT
Not only did BP get nodded again but Blunt got in for A FUCKING QUIET PLACE? Come the fuck onnnnnnnn... I really HATED A Quiet Place but I'd say Emily Blunt was the best part about it.
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AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Dec 12, 2018 18:34:13 GMT
No Ethan Hawke or Toni Collette at Golden Globes or SAG. Damn.
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hilderic
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Post by hilderic on Dec 12, 2018 18:34:56 GMT
A clear mainstream swerve in the best ensemble category. Compare the box office results of this year's nominees:
Black Panther: $700M A Star is Born: $197M Bohemian Rhapsody: $174M Crazy Rich Asians: $173M BlacKkKlansman: $48M
with the totals of last year's nominees:
Get Out: $176M Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: $54M Lady Bird: $48M The Big Sick: $42M Mudbound: $0 (Netflix)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 18:40:01 GMT
-I was expecting Hawke to make it here but I still feel his two big critics wins put him very much in the race; -The Actress and Supporting Actor lineups will likely repeat at the Oscars; -The Regina King snub is shocking. I wonder if that clears the path for Amy Adams to get her 'overdue' award.
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