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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 12, 2018 18:44:05 GMT
At this point, I believe it's pretty clear Blunt is at least Top 3 contender for BA. And no one should declare Hawke, King and Collette dead as of now. SAG is each and every year pushing to be the most populistic award body, they wouldn't even dream of touching movies this "out there". The thought that Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians would be better-positioned to win the Oscar over The Favourite or Roma is absurd.
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Post by taranofprydain on Dec 12, 2018 19:04:03 GMT
Go get it Glenn. Get it. If not her, then Emily.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 19:04:54 GMT
Go get it Glenn. Get it. If not her, then Emily. She has stiff competition from Colman and Gaga, but I'm really hoping she makes it.
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Post by taranofprydain on Dec 12, 2018 19:04:56 GMT
A clear mainstream swerve in the best ensemble category. Compare the box office results of this year's nominees: Black Panther: $700M A Star is Born: $197M Bohemian Rhapsody: $174M Crazy Rich Asians: $173M BlacKkKlansman: $48M with the totals of last year's nominees: Get Out: $176M Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: $54M Lady Bird: $48M The Big Sick: $42M Mudbound: $0 (Netflix) Looks like a reaction to try to kill the idea of a popular film category.
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Post by taranofprydain on Dec 12, 2018 19:06:23 GMT
Go get it Glenn. Get it. If not her, then Emily. She has stiff competition from Colman and Gaga, but I'm really hoping she makes it. She's so overdue. Frankly she won have won in 1982 the first time she was up. (I vascillate as to whether she of Lesley Ann Warren was the best of the nominees that year, but both were flat out excellent)
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 12, 2018 19:07:06 GMT
I still don't understand how Waltz wasn't lead. Does he have the longest screen time among supporting wins? DiCaprio was a true supporting role. I consider Waltz co-lead, but if I squint, I can see an argument for him being supporting. Can't really say the same for, say, PSH in The Master, as I feel that is clearly about two men and their interactions. I reasoned back in 2012 that DiCaprio was going to find it a tough path to a win for that role. Repugnant, monstrously racist characters like that just don't tend to win Oscars. Say what you will about Rockwell's winning performance, but the bigotry of his character was largely passive and informed by other characters (the one time he says the n-word, for instance, it's in response to McDormand saying it). DiCaprio's is overt, in-your-face and noxious in a way that I just don't think would've resonated with voters enough to give him a win for it. I reasoned the exact same thing a year later with Fassbender, and a few years later with Leigh (although Leigh surprised me by actually getting nominated in the first place). Certain types of roles just aren't going to be an easy pill for Oscar voters to swallow, and foaming-at-the-mouth racists are chief among those. If a character wins for playing a character with bigotry, they are much more low-key and downplayed about it, and usually there's some semblance of an "awakening" in the course of the movie that shows them the error of their ways. DiCaprio obviously never goes through that in his movie. Christoph Waltz won for playing the Jew Hunter.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 12, 2018 19:11:06 GMT
Switch out Malek for Hawke and this would be the PERFECT Oscar lineup. Please god let it happen. Other stuff: - Chalamet, Elliott, and Driver strengthen their odds. Is this going to be the Oscar lineup or will Jordan or Rockwell steal that 5th spot? - Hawke took a hit. Fuck. - Washington rises (finally). Hope this spells Oscar nom for an incredible performance that's been underrated for most of the season - Davis is now a spoiler contender at best, with Blunt, Close, and McCarthy closing in. Widows is struggling to stay in the conversation but I still think screenplay and editing nods are within reach. - Blunt ( Quiet Game) and Robbie instead of King, Kidman, or Foy. Hmmmmmm. It's weird, but I don't think it's going to heavily impact this particular race since both Blunt and Robbie have barely been in the conversation up to this point are still longshots for Oscar nominations while King is still a lock and Kidman and Foy are still both looking solid. - Beale Street as a whole took a huge hit. No King, no ensemble, and no other acting nominations (which were longshots for the most part but still). I still think it will score big at the Oscars with some tech nods, King obviously, a BP nod, a screenplay nod, and an outside shot for Jenkins in directing, but these snubs don't help. - oh and I just realized Bohemian Rhapsody scored an ensemble nod. WTF SAG
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 19:11:11 GMT
I consider Waltz co-lead, but if I squint, I can see an argument for him being supporting. Can't really say the same for, say, PSH in The Master, as I feel that is clearly about two men and their interactions. I reasoned back in 2012 that DiCaprio was going to find it a tough path to a win for that role. Repugnant, monstrously racist characters like that just don't tend to win Oscars. Say what you will about Rockwell's winning performance, but the bigotry of his character was largely passive and informed by other characters (the one time he says the n-word, for instance, it's in response to McDormand saying it). DiCaprio's is overt, in-your-face and noxious in a way that I just don't think would've resonated with voters enough to give him a win for it. I reasoned the exact same thing a year later with Fassbender, and a few years later with Leigh (although Leigh surprised me by actually getting nominated in the first place). Certain types of roles just aren't going to be an easy pill for Oscar voters to swallow, and foaming-at-the-mouth racists are chief among those. If a character wins for playing a character with bigotry, they are much more low-key and downplayed about it, and usually there's some semblance of an "awakening" in the course of the movie that shows them the error of their ways. DiCaprio obviously never goes through that in his movie. Christoph Waltz won for playing the Jew Hunter. But that character's bigotry wasn't as overt, despite him being a Nazi. In fact, throughout the film it seemed like he only was part of the regime for opportunistic reasons, rather than believing their rhetoric. If you compare Calvin Candie to Hans Landa, where one of them is blatantly, flagrantly racist while the other one is low-key about his bigotries (if they are even real in the first place; Landa initially prides himself on his "Jew hunter" moniker when he's intimidating LaPadite at the start of the film, then ridicules it in front of Aldo Raine as being simply "a name that stuck"). They are portrayed markedly differently. Evil characters can win Oscars, but they usually require some form of nuance and complexity. Landa is definitely that. Candie, not so much.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 12, 2018 19:16:45 GMT
Christoph Waltz won for playing the Jew Hunter. But that character's bigotry wasn't as overt, despite him being a Nazi. In fact, throughout the film it seemed like he only was part of the regime for opportunistic reasons, rather than believing their rhetoric. If you compare Calvin Candie to Hans Landa, where one of them is blatantly, flagrantly racist while the other one is low-key about his bigotries (if they are even real in the first place; Landa initially prides himself on his "Jew hunter" moniker when he's intimidating LaPadite at the start of the film, then ridicules it in front of Aldo Raine as being simply "a name that stuck"). They are portrayed markedly differently. Evil characters can win Oscars, but they usually require some form of nuance and complexity. Landa is definitely that. Candie, not so much. I just think DiCaprio was too over the top and Django Unchained just wasn't as good as Inglourious Basterds. In fact you can make a very persuasive argument that Landa is a far worse person than Candie who is incredibly disgusting.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 12, 2018 19:17:58 GMT
The Favourite: Nominated for thee acting awards, not nominated for ensemble... these fucking idiots
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 19:18:27 GMT
Switch out Malek for Hawke and this would be the PERFECT Oscar lineup. Please god let it happen. Other stuff: - Chalamet, Elliott, and Driver strengthen their odds. Is this going to be the Oscar lineup could Jordan or Rockwell steal that 5th spot? - Hawke took a hit. Fuck. - Washington rises (finally). Hope this spells Oscar nom for an incredible performance that's been underrated for most of the season - Davis is now a spoiler contender at best, with Blunt, Close, and McCarthy closing in. Widows is struggling to stay in the conversation (still think screenplay and editing nods are within reach). - Blunt ( Quiet Game) and Robbie instead of King, Kidman, or Foy. Hmmmmmm. It's weird, but I don't think it's going to heavily impact this particular race since both Blunt and Robbie have barely been in the conversation up to this point are still longshots for Oscar nominations while King is still a lock and Kidman and Foy are still both looking solid. - Beale Street as a whole took a huge hit. No King, no ensemble, and no other acting nominations (which were longshots for the most part but still). I still think it will score big at the Oscars with some tech nods, King obviously, a BP nod, a screenplay nod, and an outside shot for Jenkins in directing, but these snubs don't help. - oh and I just realized Bohemian Rhaposdy scored an ensemble nod. WTF SAG I think if Jordan was going to spoil, it would've been here. Can't see him sneaking it at BAFTA, and I don't think they'll go for Rockwell either. I'd say this is our lineup for Supporting Actor. If anyone is vulnerable, it's Chalamet because he's got the weakest film of the bunch, but this five looks pretty solid. I expect BAFTA to throw a curveball and knock out Elliott or Chalamet for a hometown boy or two, but that likely won't shake things up too much. Hawke needed this for sure, but A24 got shut out entirely here. They're really fucking it up and need to ramp it up for BAFTA. Washington and Driver figuring into the race like this makes me feel a lot better about BlacKkKlansman's chances. If they both get in and Lee as well, I could see it being a Best Picture spoiler. Focus is doing right by them. Davis needed SAG to stay alive, probably more than any fringe contender. SAG adores her and if Widows was going to do well anywhere, it should've been here. It didn't. BAFTA might revive it given its pedigree (adapted from a BBC series + McQueen), but if anyone is well and truly done after today, it's Viola. McCarthy, Close and Blunt are firmly ahead of her and have been for some time, and I'd even bet on Collette or Aparicio over her at this point. Robbie is a huge question mark. I think BAFTA is very possible with her, which makes her a sudden threat. Funnily enough, a lot of us penciled her in for a spot this time last year, saying if she didn't win for I, Tonya she might win for Mary, Queen of Scots. Then it vanished off the face of the earth and we forgot about it, but she could definitely swoop in with a vengeance. I don't see BAFTA going for Adams unless she manages to sweep the other big prizes (which I still think might be King's to lose), which makes Supporting Actress really exciting. But Foy and Kidman are certainly looking weaker and weaker by the day; one of them by rights should've gotten in here with King out of the way and they didn't.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 19:24:16 GMT
But that character's bigotry wasn't as overt, despite him being a Nazi. In fact, throughout the film it seemed like he only was part of the regime for opportunistic reasons, rather than believing their rhetoric. If you compare Calvin Candie to Hans Landa, where one of them is blatantly, flagrantly racist while the other one is low-key about his bigotries (if they are even real in the first place; Landa initially prides himself on his "Jew hunter" moniker when he's intimidating LaPadite at the start of the film, then ridicules it in front of Aldo Raine as being simply "a name that stuck"). They are portrayed markedly differently. Evil characters can win Oscars, but they usually require some form of nuance and complexity. Landa is definitely that. Candie, not so much. I just think DiCaprio was too over the top and Django Unchained just wasn't as good as Inglourious Basterds. In fact you can make a very persuasive argument that Landa is a far worse person than Candie who is incredibly disgusting. I don't disagree with that. Django really nosedives once Candie enters the picture. But it also speaks to what I was saying that Calvin Candie has no subtext or complexity. Meanwhile, Landa's evil is couched in a veneer of charm and magnetism. He may be a reprehensible man, but he was also a character you wanted to keep watching. I can't imagine anyone was thinking that Django needed more Calvin Candie, or that even the staunchest DiCaprio fans wanted to see him keep spewing racial epithets and being a generally repugnant monster. Villains are an Academy favorite, and Waltz won at the end of a one-two-three knockout series of instantly iconic baddies. He stole his movie, in the way that Ledger stole his, and Bardem his. You can't think of Basterds without thinking of him first and foremost. With Django, it can be argued that Dr. King Schultz comes to mind before Candie and even Django. He just was that good. Was Landa a worse person than Candie? It certainly is an interesting discussion. One was a monstrous bigot who profited off of the suffering of slaves, but he was also portrayed to be a dullard who likely couldn't even tie his own shoes without Stephen helping him. Landa knew exactly what he was doing and how wrong it was, and he did it to further his own ends. But he also gets his comeuppance at the end; even though Candie gets taken out, it's not really a particularly therapeutic scene, and Schultz's exit overshadows his.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 12, 2018 19:55:26 GMT
Never underestimate Focus Features when it comes to acting nominations.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 12, 2018 20:37:12 GMT
I think this is shaping up to be a very commercial friendly awards season, with obviously Black Panther being the most popular film in North America, Bohemian Rhapsody reaching $600 million WW, and even A Star is Born at almost $200 million in North America. Now we have to see how Mary Poppins Returns does at the box office.
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Post by taranofprydain on Dec 12, 2018 21:13:38 GMT
I think this is shaping up to be a very commercial friendly awards season, with obviously Black Panther being the most popular film in North America, Bohemian Rhapsody reaching $600 million WW, and even A Star is Born at almost $200 million in North America. Now we have to see how Mary Poppins Returns does at the box office. It's expected to open to 70 million dollars.
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Post by Javi on Dec 12, 2018 21:17:04 GMT
These are cringeworthy as usual. Populist, absurd... supporting categories filled with leading performances, etc. Exactly what you can expect from this group.
Ethan Hawke is still a near-lock for an Oscar nom imo - it's exactly the kind of performance that gets in thanks to the critics.
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Post by quetee on Dec 12, 2018 21:53:00 GMT
I think this is shaping up to be a very commercial friendly awards season, with obviously Black Panther being the most popular film in North America, Bohemian Rhapsody reaching $600 million WW, and even A Star is Born at almost $200 million in North America. Now we have to see how Mary Poppins Returns does at the box office. min $350. But my guess is $400 mil.
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Post by quetee on Dec 12, 2018 21:55:11 GMT
This is beyond bad news for If Beale Street. I think we are overpredicting it.
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Post by Sharbs on Dec 12, 2018 22:00:38 GMT
This is beyond bad news for If Beale Street. I think we are overpredicting it. yeah, I dropped it from 2 to 6/7 given the last few weeks, it seems like it's missing a lot recently, but this was a huge shutout
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Dec 12, 2018 22:28:47 GMT
Crap. Bohemian Rhapsody is happening.
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Post by quetee on Dec 12, 2018 22:50:31 GMT
This is beyond bad news for If Beale Street. I think we are overpredicting it. yeah, I dropped it from 2 to 6/7 given the last few weeks, it seems like it's missing a lot recently, but this was a huge shutout I was questioning it before then left it all when the critics went for it. Then last week when Atlanta did give it a nod I knew something was off. Now with this snub, ouch.....
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 12, 2018 23:39:36 GMT
These are some absolutely asinine nominations. Bohemian Rhapsody in Ensemble? Fucking seriously? And here I thought A Star is Born's nomination here would be by far the most egregious one... I mean, c'mon, no one in Rhapsody outside of Malek is getting any sort of acclaim. Lucy Boynton was pretty good, but outside of her, no one in the supporting ensemble did anything of note. It's also just shocking because there really aren't any names in this cast to attract votes here. It's mostly just a one-man showcase for Malek, so what the hell? Do they really just love the movie that much? And yeah, I'm still gonna complain about A Star is Born here, which got in just because ... it has three acting contenders? Well, yeah, so does The Favourite, and you nominated all three of its leading ladies, but snubbed it in Ensemble? Yeah. Sure. That makes sense.
Of course I have to complain about no Hawke, no Collette, yada yada. Sorry, haven't read anyone else's responses before posting, so I'm sure most people said similar things as I did, but I just needed to vent a little. This awards season feels like it's getting more and more boring with each new batch of nominees from major events.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 13, 2018 0:06:03 GMT
At this point, I believe it's pretty clear Blunt is at least Top 3 contender for BA. And no one should declare Hawke, King and Collette dead as of now. SAG is each and every year pushing to be the most populistic award body, they wouldn't even dream of touching movies this "out there". The thought that Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians would be better-positioned to win the Oscar over The Favourite or Roma is absurd. Hawke's dead for the win. He's still probably getting nominated.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 13, 2018 0:09:00 GMT
I think this is shaping up to be a very commercial friendly awards season, with obviously Black Panther being the most popular film in North America, Bohemian Rhapsody reaching $600 million WW, and even A Star is Born at almost $200 million in North America. Now we have to see how Mary Poppins Returns does at the box office. It almost feels like a reaction to the Best Popular Film controversy. I understand Black Panther. It made 700m. But you'd never expect to see films like Bohemian Rhapsody and A Quiet Place (even though I loved it) showing up so much.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 13, 2018 0:52:09 GMT
It was ridiculous. Maybe they can give up on the idea of Kidman getting nominated for anything too? Well, after Close, Colman, and Gaga, I think any combination of Aparicio, Blunt, Collette, Kidman, and McCarthy makes sense to round out the five nominees... But the constant nagging that Close wasn't going to be nominated reeked of ageism and sexism to me. Sexism? Predicting an actress isn’t a lock for a nomination?
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