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Post by stephen on Nov 5, 2023 0:06:14 GMT
You know I’ve seen people downplay narratives lately while often sighting the one two punch of Hopkins and McDormand in 2019. Have we ever stopped to think that maybe 2019 was just weird? All acting winners since except for Debose have had a nice narrative and it was obviously a thing before (though obviously not every time). There is a reason why we were so surprised in 2019. 2020/21, you mean? Narratives are what you make of them. Obviously, if we take all of the winners from the last couple of years, pretty much everyone's got some sort of narrative you can look at if you look hard enough.But certain narratives have been waning in importance in the last few years with the burgeoning new Academy. Jeff Bridges is probably the last winner who won on a career narrative based on a high nomination count. Maybe DiCaprio, but he is something of a unicorn in that he won off an overdue narrative but also, he had a beastly strong film that year and he's DiCaprio. Since then, we've seen Glenn Close fail twice, to freshman nominees giving atypical performances at that. Hopkins beat Boseman with the seemingly insurmountable posthumous narrative, which I think might've worked in a shorter season; there were signs that narrative was gassing out by the end, when Hopkins took BAFTA and Ahmed the Spirit Award. I also think that if The Father had come out sooner, it might've gained enough momentum to get Zeller in for Director and to potentially make a play for Best Picture. McDormand had the strongest film of the bunch but it was such a fractured race that year that BAFTA wound up telling the tale. (Of course, last year proved it's less about what BAFTA does and more about who the last voice in the room is, which is why it will be very interesting to see how the screenplay prizes shake out this year with WGA moving post-Oscar.) Gladstone has a very good narrative, which just got juiced by Oscar winner Buffy Sainte-Marie's recent exposure as falsifying her native heritage. That means that the only indigenous competitive winner of an Oscar is Taika Waititi. The question is whether that will be enough, because the performance itself is very subdued, and her competition is very loud and showy. Funnily enough, the closest comparison I can think of is McDormand herself for Nomadland, but the difference is that she was the indisputable lead of her film who was in every frame of the movie.
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flasuss
Badass
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Post by flasuss on Nov 5, 2023 0:07:38 GMT
You know I’ve seen people downplay narratives lately while often sighting the one two punch of Hopkins and McDormand in 2019. Have we ever stopped to think that maybe 2019 was just weird? All acting winners since except for Debose have had a nice narrative and it was obviously a thing before (though obviously not every time). There is a reason why we were so surprised in 2019. It was 2020, pandemic year. Hopkins was simply undeniable once enough people saw his film. Mcdormand was the weird case, and probably wouldn't have won in another year
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Post by Mattsby on Nov 5, 2023 0:10:25 GMT
Emma Stone, Poor Things Greta Lee, Past Lives Lily Gladstone, Flower Moon Jessica Chastain, Memory Natalie Portman, May/December
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 5, 2023 0:15:59 GMT
You know I’ve seen people downplay narratives lately while often sighting the one two punch of Hopkins and McDormand in 2019. Have we ever stopped to think that maybe 2019 was just weird? All acting winners since except for Debose have had a nice narrative and it was obviously a thing before (though obviously not every time). There is a reason why we were so surprised in 2019. 2020/21, you mean? Narratives are what you make of them. Obviously, if we take all of the winners from the last couple of years, pretty much everyone's got some sort of narrative you can look at if you look hard enough.But certain narratives have been waning in importance in the last few years with the burgeoning new Academy. Jeff Bridges is probably the last winner who won on a career narrative based on a high nomination count. Maybe DiCaprio, but he is something of a unicorn in that he won off an overdue narrative but also, he had a beastly strong film that year and he's DiCaprio. Since then, we've seen Glenn Close fail twice, to freshman nominees giving atypical performances at that. Hopkins beat Boseman with the seemingly insurmountable posthumous narrative, which I think might've worked in a shorter season; there were signs that narrative was gassing out by the end, when Hopkins took BAFTA and Ahmed the Spirit Award. I also think that if The Father had come out sooner, it might've gained enough momentum to get Zeller in for Director and to potentially make a play for Best Picture. McDormand had the strongest film of the bunch but it was such a fractured race that year that BAFTA wound up telling the tale. (Of course, last year proved it's less about what BAFTA does and more about who the last voice in the room is, which is why it will be very interesting to see how the screenplay prizes shake out this year with WGA moving post-Oscar.) Gladstone has a very good narrative, which just got juiced by Oscar winner Buffy Sainte-Marie's recent exposure as falsifying her native heritage. That means that the only indigenous competitive winner of an Oscar is Taika Waititi. The question is whether that will be enough, because the performance itself is very subdued, and her competition is very loud and showy. Funnily enough, the closest comparison I can think of is McDormand herself for Nomadland, but the difference is that she was the indisputable lead of her film who was in every frame of the movie. Yep that’s the year I meant. I know she is kind of subdued but I felt Gladstone was given plenty to do. The way people were talking I was surprised by how much she was given. Sure her role wasn’t that big percentage wise but her movie is long as shit so screen time wise I don’t think she’s at a huge disadvantage. Reviews are out of this world too. On equal footing on Stone. Stone might need a large gap on acclaim to negate the fact that she already has an Oscar.
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Post by stephen on Nov 5, 2023 0:42:07 GMT
Emma Stone, Poor Things Greta Lee, Past Lives Lily Gladstone, Flower Moon Jessica Chastain, MemoryNatalie Portman, May/December Ketchup rises.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 5, 2023 0:45:55 GMT
Emma Stone, Poor Things Greta Lee, Past Lives Lily Gladstone, Flower Moon Jessica Chastain, Memory Natalie Portman, May/December I don’t even think Memory is coming out this year. (if it was I would be starting a whisper campaign for Sarsgaard)
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Post by stephen on Nov 5, 2023 1:04:05 GMT
Emma Stone, Poor Things Greta Lee, Past Lives Lily Gladstone, Flower Moon Jessica Chastain, Memory Natalie Portman, May/December I don’t even think Memory is coming out this year. (if it was I would be starting a whisper campaign for Sarsgaard) It's getting a qualifying release.
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Post by Allenism on Dec 11, 2023 18:14:43 GMT
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Emma Stone, Poor Things Carey Mulligan, Maestro Sandra Hueller, Anatomy of a Fall Annette Bening, Nyad
Alt: Natalie Portman, May December Wildcard: Greta Lee, Past Lives
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 11, 2023 18:19:58 GMT
This is the strongest the category has been in years but I feel pretty good about this group right now. 1. Gladstone 2. Stone 3. Mulligan 4. Huller 5. Portman
Robbie will get a nom for producing.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 11, 2023 18:45:55 GMT
This is the strongest the category has been in years but I feel pretty good about this group right now. 1. Gladstone 2. Stone 3. Mulligan 4. Huller 5. Portman
Robbie will get a nom for producing.
Going with this same group as well.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 11, 2023 23:09:59 GMT
Gladstone Stone Huller Mulligan Robbie
Portman Lee Barrino Bening Spaeny
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2023 1:05:37 GMT
- Stone - Gladstone - Hüller - Mulligan - Bening
Robbie as an insanely close alt.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 12, 2023 2:19:24 GMT
Stone Gladstone Robbie Portman Lee
I see Mülligan snubbed, and Hüller reminds me of Reinsve a couple of years ago. BAFTA nom is likely but Oscar nom not so much.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2023 2:34:20 GMT
Stone Gladstone Robbie Portman Lee I see Mülligan snubbed, and Hüller reminds me of Reinsve a couple of years ago. BAFTA nom is likely but Oscar nom not so much. AOAF is a lot stronger than TWPITW ever was. That's a big difference here.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2023 2:35:08 GMT
I need to know how Bening is possibly above Robbie.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 12, 2023 2:39:22 GMT
Stone Gladstone Robbie Portman Lee I see Mülligan snubbed, and Hüller reminds me of Reinsve a couple of years ago. BAFTA nom is likely but Oscar nom not so much. AOAF is a lot stronger than TWPITW ever was. That's a big difference here. This year is also a lot stronger. All of the potential nominees are more than likely BP nominees, 4 films will definitely have multiple acting nominations, and 3 films are actual contenders. That year none of the nominees were in a BP nominee.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2023 9:24:05 GMT
I need to know how Bening is possibly above Robbie. Well, I feel there has to be something basic-ass here and I see no better fit than a campaigning veteran with a baity physical role. Plus it's just weird to me to predict Foster (which I am) as a lone nominee for a movie called Nyad. And yes, not predicting Barbie for a movie called Barbie is also weird but the role isn't as baity so I can imagine voters thinking it's a touch lightweight. Plus the whole "She'll be rewarded with a producing nomination" thing. But again, I ain't dying on that Bening hill, it's just a theory. I initially wrote Robbie but switched right before posting.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 12, 2023 13:46:10 GMT
The way I see it, Robbie shouldn't even be in the conversation but she's the star of one of the movies of the year so it's inevitable.
Currently predicting:
Stone Gladstone Mulligan Portman Huller
but Robbie will be hard to deny with GG, SAG, BFCA and possibly BAFTA nominations (and maybe even a Globe win).
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jan 3, 2024 4:35:32 GMT
I was initially surprised by Fantasia getting the role of Celie over Cynthia Erivo, but I'm glad she did... Fantasia's voice is simply better suited to the material, in my opinion - Erivo's vocals are too pretty and "polished" for this world-weary character, if that makes sense.
The film is peaking at just the right time, too...
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 3, 2024 4:52:54 GMT
I'm changing my predictions based on the number of #1 votes: Stone Gladstone Mulligan Hueller Lee Alt: Fantasia
Robbie and Portman miss ultimately as they will have fewer #1 votes.
Fantasia might spoil in lieu of Lee if The Color Purple expands its buzz post-SAG.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 3, 2024 10:23:37 GMT
My order is Gladstone, Stone, Mulligan, Lee, and Huller. 4 GGD nominees and 1 GG CM nod. I have Robbie, Bening, and Spaeny on the outside. Barrino and Portman as the dark horses.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 3, 2024 12:58:18 GMT
I'm still not buying into a Lee nom.
Gladstone Stone Huller Mulligan Robbie
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 3, 2024 12:58:55 GMT
My order is Gladstone, Stone, Mulligan, Lee, and Huller. 4 GGD nominees and 1 GG CM nod. I have Robbie, Bening, and Spaeny on the outside. Barrino and Portman as the dark horses. Please don't tell me you have Bening and Spaeny above Barrino and Portman.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 3, 2024 12:59:52 GMT
I was initially surprised by Fantasia getting the role of Celie over Cynthia Erivo, but I'm glad she did... Fantasia's voice is simply better suited to the material, in my opinion - Erivo's vocals are too pretty and "polished" for this world-weary character, if that makes sense. The film is peaking at just the right time, too...Is it though... It's low-key underperforming at the box office.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 3, 2024 13:21:29 GMT
My order is Gladstone, Stone, Mulligan, Lee, and Huller. 4 GGD nominees and 1 GG CM nod. I have Robbie, Bening, and Spaeny on the outside. Barrino and Portman as the dark horses. Please don't tell me you have Bening and Spaeny above Barrino and Portman. My picks will change after SAG, but the Academy favors dramas over comedy and musicals. We know the Globes pick 3-4 of the Drama nominees. Stone is a lock. If they are going for a 2nd comedy, it would be Robbie. Are you predicting three Comedy Musical performances to get into best actress? I like Huller, Mulligan and Lee for the other three spots.
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