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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Oct 25, 2023 1:58:06 GMT
I wasn't sure in July, but at this point, when both BARBIE in BP and Gerwig in BD seem like locks, imo, I'm amazed anyone is keeping Robbie out of their Actress predictions. I think both Gerwig and Robbie miss Yeah, that's not happening. I liked but didn't love BARBIE (Gosling is fucking AMAZING, though), but that's irrelevant. It's a fucking PHENOMENON, and considered a monumental feminist achievement. NO WAY the woman director behind it (who's probably the most high-profile female filmmaker in Hollywood) is overlooked, and NO WAY is the female lead overlooked either. Robbie not getting in makes as much sense as Murphy not getting in. I personally didn't think Murphy was that great, but he's the star of the almost certainly most-nominated film of the year, and the only other film this year that is a PHENOMENON. 100% a lock. Ditto for Robbie.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Oct 25, 2023 2:03:16 GMT
I wasn't sure in July, but at this point, when both BARBIE in BP and Gerwig in BD seem like locks, imo, I'm amazed anyone is keeping Robbie out of their Actress predictions. Probably because this isn't true. She's Top 7, but the only 'locks' this far out are Nolan, Scorsese and Lanthimos. Eh, agree to disagree. Like I said in my previous reply, BARBIE is one of only 2 Oscar contenders this year that are fucking PHENOMENONS, and it's been heralded as a great feminist achievement. ZERO chance the woman behind it & hottest female director in Hollywood is overlooked. Honestly, even though I think Robbie is almost certain, I think Gerwig is more of a lock than Robbie.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Oct 25, 2023 13:55:10 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 25, 2023 16:08:20 GMT
Good for her. Still ain't making it
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 25, 2023 20:04:46 GMT
Good for her. Still ain't making it I don’t think I’m predicting her right now but she certainly has a good shot for a nom. Don’t get the certainty with the zero precursors so far to base anything off of. Pundit predictions and current betting odds don’t mean shit.
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 25, 2023 21:20:54 GMT
Are you and I, the only one predicting Spaeny?
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 25, 2023 22:38:45 GMT
Good for her. Still ain't making it I don’t think I’m predicting her right now but she certainly has a good shot for a nom. Don’t get the certainty with the zero precursors so far to base anything off of. Pundit predictions and current betting odds don’t mean shit.Ok...That's not what I base my predictions on.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 26, 2023 0:50:53 GMT
I don’t think I’m predicting her right now but she certainly has a good shot for a nom. Don’t get the certainty with the zero precursors so far to base anything off of. Pundit predictions and current betting odds don’t mean shit.Ok...That's not what I base my predictions on. That’s fine but it’s still just educated guesses at this point.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 26, 2023 1:20:16 GMT
Going to keep my predicted 5 until something happens that changes my mind.
Gladstone Stone Huller Mulligan Fantasia
If The Color Purple flops or is pushed next up is probably Robbie. Benning, Lee and Portman in an undecided order after that.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Oct 26, 2023 1:24:05 GMT
Brother Fease - I'm not sure? Potentially. To me, the race seems wide open beyond Gladstone, Mulligan, and Stone... I think it's silly to dismiss Spaeny so early on - especially with the Volpi Cup and a sizeable campaign in hand. Also, I have to say... I can't recall a Sofia Coppola film since Lost in Translation receiving this much buzz.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 26, 2023 1:28:32 GMT
- Stone - Gladstone - Mulligan - Bening - Hüller
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 26, 2023 1:36:50 GMT
Brother Fease - I'm not sure? Potentially. To me, the race seems wide open beyond Gladstone, Mulligan, and Stone... I think it's silly to dismiss Spaeny so early on - especially with the Volpi Cup and a sizeable campaign in hand. Also, I have to say... I can't recall a Sofia Coppola film since Lost in Translation receiving this much buzz. Those three you mentioned are definitely in. I am a little skeptical of Robbie. The Academy could view Robbie, just like Tom Cruise in Maverick or even Mel Gibson/Tim Robbins in Braveheart/ Shawshank Redemption. Recent Volphi Cup winners for Best Actress are pretty much guaranteed to get in, if they get a theatrical release. Spaeny benefits from both winning the Volpi Cup and playing an American icon.
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speeders
Based
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Post by speeders on Oct 26, 2023 3:21:58 GMT
Tightest race ever?
Right now I'm going with... Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Carey Mulligan, Maestro Emma Stone, Poor Things Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla Natalie Portman, May December
Alt. Annette Bening, Nyad Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple Margot Robbie, Barbie
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 26, 2023 15:27:41 GMT
Gladstone Stone Mulligan Huller Barrino
Robbie Bening
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Post by stephen on Oct 26, 2023 15:30:22 GMT
Gladstone Stone Mulligan Huller Barrino Robbie Bening Yeah, this is where I'm at right now (though I would swap the top two placements). Barrino is such an unknown variable here, and I think that's what they're counting on.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 26, 2023 18:07:46 GMT
Gladstone Stone Mulligan Huller Barrino Robbie Bening Since you’ve seen May/December would a Portman nom be justified?
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 26, 2023 22:59:52 GMT
Gladstone Stone Mulligan Huller Barrino Robbie Bening Since you’ve seen May/December would a Portman nom be justified? Oh 100%. In terms of predictions though, I probably have her at #8.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 27, 2023 18:25:09 GMT
My thoughts on Spaeny are that recent Volpi cup winners that got Actress nominations had a lot more going for her than just having won the Volpi. They were in big BP contenders (Stone, Colman, Blanchett), hot new talents coming off of a huge TV show (Kirby) or were Penelope Cruz (Cruz). These women didn't get nominated because they won he Volpi, which is still just a jury prize voted on by a small amount of people. It that's the biggest thing she has going for her I don't like her odds in a very strong year full of women in BP contenders.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 27, 2023 18:34:32 GMT
My thoughts on Spaeny are that recent Volpi cup winners that got Actress nominations had a lot more going for her than just having won the Volpi. They were in big BP contenders (Stone, Colman, Blanchett), hot new talents coming off of a huge TV show (Kirby) or were Penelope Cruz (Cruz). These women didn't get nominated because they wont he Volpi, which is still just a jury prize voted on by a small amount of people. It that's the biggest thing she has going for her I don't like her odds in a very strong year full of women in BP contenders. Big claim. But yeah, agree with everything you said.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 27, 2023 18:38:27 GMT
My thoughts on Spaeny are that recent Volpi cup winners that got Actress nominations had a lot more going for her than just having won the Volpi. They were in big BP contenders (Stone, Colman, Blanchett), hot new talents coming off of a huge TV show (Kirby) or were Penelope Cruz (Cruz). These women didn't get nominated because they wont he Volpi, which is still just a jury prize voted on by a small amount of people. It that's the biggest thing she has going for her I don't like her odds in a very strong year full of women in BP contenders. Big claim. But yeah, agree with everything you said. I'm pretty confident in this. There was something very Penelope Cruz-like about Penelope Cruz that year.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2023 18:44:38 GMT
My thoughts on Spaeny are that recent Volpi cup winners that got Actress nominations had a lot more going for her than just having won the Volpi. They were in big BP contenders (Stone, Colman, Blanchett), hot new talents coming off of a huge TV show (Kirby) or were Penelope Cruz (Cruz). These women didn't get nominated because they won he Volpi, which is still just a jury prize voted on by a small amount of people. It that's the biggest thing she has going for her I don't like her odds in a very strong year full of women in BP contenders. I definitely agree with this. I do also feel that Spaeny's victory (regardless of its own merits) was a direct result of Poor Things not able to take Actress at that festival, as a Golden Lion winner can't take any other prizes and Stone's reviews were that rapturous (plus she had already won the prize before). Spaeny is getting really good notices but by all accounts is much more low-key against other louder, showier competitors with higher name recognition, and considering the Elvis love-fest last year, I really don't know if the Academy that fawned over Luhrmann's film will be willing to accept a movie that shows Presley in a much different, darker light.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 27, 2023 19:03:17 GMT
My thoughts on Spaeny are that recent Volpi cup winners that got Actress nominations had a lot more going for her than just having won the Volpi. They were in big BP contenders (Stone, Colman, Blanchett), hot new talents coming off of a huge TV show (Kirby) or were Penelope Cruz (Cruz). These women didn't get nominated because they won he Volpi, which is still just a jury prize voted on by a small amount of people. It that's the biggest thing she has going for her I don't like her odds in a very strong year full of women in BP contenders. I definitely agree with this. I do also feel that Spaeny's victory (regardless of its own merits) was a direct result of Poor Things not able to take Actress at that festival, as a Golden Lion winner can't take any other prizes and Stone's reviews were that rapturous (plus she had already won the prize before). Spaeny is getting really good notices but by all accounts is much more low-key against other louder, showier competitors with higher name recognition, and considering the Elvis love-fest last year, I really don't know if the Academy that fawned over Luhrmann's film will be willing to accept a movie that shows Presley in a much different, darker light. Also the Oscars haven't even given a Coppola film a second thought in 20 years.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Nov 2, 2023 13:44:33 GMT
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Post by sophiefox on Nov 2, 2023 15:29:54 GMT
Lily Gladstone & Fantasia Barrino deserve the recognition, even tho i'm rooting for my girl Emma Stone ftw ✌️🤞
Carey Mulligan & Cailee Spaeny as filler
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 4, 2023 23:02:52 GMT
You know I’ve seen people downplay narratives lately while often sighting the one two punch of Hopkins and McDormand in 2019. Have we ever stopped to think that maybe 2019 was just weird? All acting winners since except for Debose have had a nice narrative and it was obviously a thing before (though obviously not every time). There is a reason why we were so surprised in 2019.
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