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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jul 6, 2023 14:36:29 GMT
This will always be my favorite category. What are your initial predictions looking like? I guess I'll go... Annette Bening, NyadGreta Lee, Past LivesCarey Mulligan, MaestroEmma Stone, Poor ThingsKate Winslet, LeePlease, share yours!
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 6, 2023 17:05:15 GMT
Barinno Lee Huller Portman Benning
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Post by stephen on Jul 6, 2023 17:26:18 GMT
Here are the current contenders, bar a few that I might be missing:
• Amy Adams, Nightbitch (Amazon) • Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) • Annette Bening, Nyad (Netflix) • Olivia Colman, Wicked Little Letters (TBD) • Andra Day, The Deliverance (Netflix) • Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (MGM) • Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall (Neon) • Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest (A24) • Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (TBD) • Greta Lee, Past Lives (A24) • Thomasin McKenzie, Eileen (Neon) • Natalie Portman, May/December (Netflix) • Margaret Qualley, Drive Away Dolls (Focus Features) • Margot Robbie, Barbie (Warner Bros.) • Saoirse Ronan, Foe (TBD) • Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (A24) • Kristen Stewart, Love Lies Bleeding (TBD) • Emma Stone, Poor Things (Searchlight) • Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (Focus Features) • Geraldine Viswanathan, Drive Away Dolls (Focus Features) • Kate Winslet, Lee (TBD) • Zendaya, Challengers (MGM)
Of these, if I had to pick a solid five based on pedigree of the project, studio, and whether the actor has juice with the Academy: Barrino, Huller (Anatomy), Lee, Portman, Stone. I suspect Mulligan might run supporting.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jul 6, 2023 17:54:49 GMT
I am manifesting Nightbitch being a surprise hit and Amy Adams becoming the one to beat.
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Post by JangoB on Jul 6, 2023 18:31:41 GMT
Obviously we don't know anything about placements yet so gotta go by the gut and by the gut only!
- Greta Lee, Past Lives - Emma Stone, Poor Things - Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall - Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple - Carey Mulligan, Maestro
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 6, 2023 19:31:11 GMT
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 6, 2023 21:15:10 GMT
Barrino Huller Lee Portman Stone
*replace Lee with Gladstone, if she ends up Lead
Mulligan is credited before BCoop in Maestro, so I doubt she goes supporting.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 6, 2023 22:58:21 GMT
Barrino HullerLee Portman Stone *replace Lee with Gladstone, if she ends up Lead Mulligan is credited before BCoop in Maestro, so I doubt she goes supporting. Fall Huller or Zone Huller?
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 7, 2023 7:13:48 GMT
Barrino HullerLee Portman Stone *replace Lee with Gladstone, if she ends up Lead Mulligan is credited before BCoop in Maestro, so I doubt she goes supporting. Fall Huller or Zone Huller? 100% Fall
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speeders
Based
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Post by speeders on Jul 10, 2023 23:35:35 GMT
Carey Mulligan, Maestro Natalie Portman, May December Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple Greta Lee, Past Lives Annette Bening, Nyad
Alt. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
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Post by MsMovieStar on Jul 11, 2023 7:07:44 GMT
Ms Movie Star, Naked Tik Tok
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 11, 2023 21:11:51 GMT
1. Fantasio Barrino, The Color Purple 2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Greta Lee, Past Lives 4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall 5. Natalie Portman, May December 6. Kate Winslet, Lee 7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro 8. Annette Bening, Nyad 9. Margot Robbie, Barbie 10. Emma Stone, Poor Things
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 12, 2023 1:30:08 GMT
1. Fantasio Barrino, The Color Purple 2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon3. Greta Lee, Past Lives 4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall 5. Natalie Portman, May December 6. Kate Winslet, Lee 7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro 8. Annette Bening, Nyad 9. Margot Robbie, Barbie 10. Emma Stone, Poor Things Isn't she supporting?
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 12, 2023 1:49:55 GMT
1. Fantasio Barrino, The Color Purple 2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon3. Greta Lee, Past Lives 4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall 5. Natalie Portman, May December 6. Kate Winslet, Lee 7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro 8. Annette Bening, Nyad 9. Margot Robbie, Barbie 10. Emma Stone, Poor Things Isn't she supporting? No one knows at this point.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 24, 2023 2:23:23 GMT
Barinno Lee Huller Portman Benning What’s everybody’s predictions in the event of The Color Purple being pushed to next year? I would probably replace her with Mulligan. No idea for a winner since she was the only one that felt showy enough. I guess Lee for now. If Barinno gets pushed back they should consider pushing Gladstone lead. She could win. (But if The Color Purple gets pushed back she would EASILY win supporting actress)
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Post by stabcaesar on Jul 24, 2023 2:25:12 GMT
With Barbie's BO run I don't see Robbie missing. She's definitely in.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 24, 2023 2:50:42 GMT
If Barrino gets pushed, and Gladstone is still supporting:
Huller Lee Portman Robbie Stone
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 12:36:22 GMT
If Barrino gets pushed, and Gladstone is still supporting: Huller Lee Portman Robbie Stone I have to say, if The Color Purple does wind up going to 2024, I think they might just push Gladstone lead to take advantage of the vacuum. Gladstone's biggest issue (in my eyes) was always going to be whoever she was up against for that movie. But if they want to center the Killers narrative around Gladstone (and through her, First Nations people being the focal point of the narrative), I think they should run a lead campaign.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 24, 2023 13:11:38 GMT
If Barrino gets pushed, and Gladstone is still supporting: Huller Lee Portman Robbie Stone I have to say, if The Color Purple does wind up going to 2024, I think they might just push Gladstone lead to take advantage of the vacuum. Gladstone's biggest issue (in my eyes) was always going to be whoever she was up against for that movie. But if they want to center the Killers narrative around Gladstone (and through her, First Nations people being the focal point of the narrative), I think they should run a lead campaign. Do we know her screen time for the film?
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 24, 2023 13:12:11 GMT
With Barbie's BO run I don't see Robbie missing. She's definitely in. I changed my line-up to include Robbie.
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 13:14:31 GMT
I have to say, if The Color Purple does wind up going to 2024, I think they might just push Gladstone lead to take advantage of the vacuum. Gladstone's biggest issue (in my eyes) was always going to be whoever she was up against for that movie. But if they want to center the Killers narrative around Gladstone (and through her, First Nations people being the focal point of the narrative), I think they should run a lead campaign. Do we know her screen time for the film? I've spoken to a couple of people who have seen it and they say that she could go either way and it wouldn't be category fraud. One of them mentioned Olivia Colman in The Favourite as a comparison point: an essential character who is justifiably a lead, but does not have the screentime of someone else in the film who definitely is (Stone/DiCaprio).
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 24, 2023 14:09:58 GMT
Do we know her screen time for the film? I've spoken to a couple of people who have seen it and they say that she could go either way and it wouldn't be category fraud. One of them mentioned Olivia Colman in The Favourite as a comparison point: an essential character who is justifiably a lead, but does not have the screentime of someone else in the film who definitely is (Stone/DiCaprio). Thank you. Great insight, like always. We did see Sharon Stone getting nominated for lead actress for Casino. Sounds like it'll depend on what Ms. Gladstone prefers. She should go for the category with the best chance to win. Being an "unknown" leans me to believe she's going supporting.
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 14:14:07 GMT
I've spoken to a couple of people who have seen it and they say that she could go either way and it wouldn't be category fraud. One of them mentioned Olivia Colman in The Favourite as a comparison point: an essential character who is justifiably a lead, but does not have the screentime of someone else in the film who definitely is (Stone/DiCaprio). Thank you. Great insight, like always. We did see Sharon Stone getting nominated for lead actress for Casino. Sounds like it'll depend on what Ms. Gladstone prefers. She should go for the category with the best chance to win. Being an "unknown" leans me to believe she's going supporting. She's not really an unknown. Gladstone has been around a while. She's not a household name, but the fact that she isn't would very well be part of the narrative. First Nations and Native actors have been long denied opportunities and relegated to playing stereotypes, and it's clear Scorsese aims to make that a huge focus of the film. It would be something of a bad look to really base the narrative of the campaign on telling these stories of these people, only to have the face of the film wind up getting docked to supporting in favour of the white A-list leading man. There's no reason not to run Gladstone lead because she's not competing against DiCaprio, and they can make a statement here.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 24, 2023 14:19:32 GMT
Thank you. Great insight, like always. We did see Sharon Stone getting nominated for lead actress for Casino. Sounds like it'll depend on what Ms. Gladstone prefers. She should go for the category with the best chance to win. Being an "unknown" leans me to believe she's going supporting. She's not really an unknown. Gladstone has been around a while. She's not a household name, but the fact that she isn't would very well be part of the narrative. First Nations and Native actors have been long denied opportunities and relegated to playing stereotypes, and it's clear Scorsese aims to make that a huge focus of the film. It would be something of a bad look to really base the narrative of the campaign on telling these stories of these people, only to have the face of the film wind up getting docked to supporting in favour of the white A-list leading man. There's no reason not to run Gladstone lead because she's not competing against DiCaprio, and they can make a statement here. That's why I put it in quotes. I remembered her from the movie Certain Women. She's not a household name, like Stone was in 1995-1996 or Michelle Williams in 2022-2023. We will see. I have a feeling she's going to go supporting. Not that I endorse such a move.
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 14:30:09 GMT
She's not really an unknown. Gladstone has been around a while. She's not a household name, but the fact that she isn't would very well be part of the narrative. First Nations and Native actors have been long denied opportunities and relegated to playing stereotypes, and it's clear Scorsese aims to make that a huge focus of the film. It would be something of a bad look to really base the narrative of the campaign on telling these stories of these people, only to have the face of the film wind up getting docked to supporting in favour of the white A-list leading man. There's no reason not to run Gladstone lead because she's not competing against DiCaprio, and they can make a statement here. That's why I put it in quotes. I remembered her from the movie Certain Women. She's not a household name, like Stone was in 1995-1996 or Michelle Williams in 2022-2023. We will see. I have a feeling she's going to go supporting. Not that I endorse such a move. I think it could go either way depending on the field and what gets pushed. But if we look at Best Actress right now, there's not really a prevailing narrative there I can see. Bening might get pushed to 2024, as her TIFF tribute has been cancelled in the face of the strike, and if they're not able to get that off the ground in time, they might not be able to build momentum for her. Robbie's been racking up a lot of cred the last decade but I don't think Barbie will be her ticket to an Oscar win, good as she is in it. Adams has been hit-and-miss and I don't know if I have faith in Nightbitch, as much as I'd love a movie with that title to be an Oscar contender. Portman and Stone have Oscars already. Huller has a banner year in the works but foreign language performances don't often win (only two in Best Actress ever). The Color Purple being potentially kicked to 2024 opens up both fields massively, as Barrino/Brooks/Henson all felt like they had winner upside. But right now, I think both fields look potentially thin enough that anywhere Gladstone goes, she's probably safe to get nominated. As for Stone and Williams, those were special situations. Stone could well have won if she had gone supporting but there was more prestige placed in leading Oscars back then and she wanted the clout that came with it (justifiably so). Williams was long expected to run supporting (and win) that when she decided to go lead, people thought it was a dumb idea and she could never shake that (again, justifiably so).
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