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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 26, 2023 3:13:56 GMT
Same as Jango tbh.
Barrino Huller Mulligan Robbie Stone
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Schiggy
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Post by Schiggy on Aug 27, 2023 14:37:36 GMT
Fantasia Lee Hüller Robbie Stone
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 1, 2023 23:04:26 GMT
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Updated my list to include Robbie, Stone, and Comer.
I have changed my list. If Gladstone goes lead, I am saying bye bye to Huller. Benchwarmer slots go to Bening, Lee, Taylor, Barrino, and Spaeny.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 3, 2023 2:01:02 GMT
Most competitive and exciting category!
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Emma Stone, Poor Things Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple Carey Mulligan, Maestro Natalie Portman, May December
Alt. Greta Lee, Past Lives Margot Robbie, Barbie Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders Annette Bening, Nyad
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 3, 2023 2:13:47 GMT
As much as I loved her performance, I don't think Portman is even Top 7 atp
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Post by JangoB on Sept 7, 2023 19:56:27 GMT
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Post by stephen on Sept 7, 2023 19:57:31 GMT
I mean, they'd have been silly not to run her there, considering she has actual leading buzz for Anatomy of a Fall.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 7, 2023 20:04:03 GMT
I mean, they'd have been silly not to run her there, considering she has actual leading buzz for Anatomy of a Fall. Thank God it wasn't up to Michelle Williams to decide.
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Archie
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Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Sept 9, 2023 18:58:47 GMT
I think we need to talk about Cailee Spaeny.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 9, 2023 19:06:29 GMT
I think we need to talk about Cailee Spaeny. No we don’t.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 9, 2023 19:07:23 GMT
I think we need to talk about Cailee Spaeny. The Volpi Cup is a huge get for her, to be sure, and Coppola has always worked wonders with young actresses, but... the style of acting in her films isn't generally something Oscar responds to. We'll have to see how well the film is received Stateside.
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 9, 2023 19:10:52 GMT
I think we need to talk about Cailee Spaeny. Although historically the Volpi Cup is no guarantee of a nomination, however it has been doing better as of late with Stone, Colman, Kirby and Blanchett when it comes to English Language performances. Although I would say all except Kirby had plenty of buzz before the win/the festival regardless, but actress is certainly open enough, that she's definitely in at least vague contention now, particularly as Coppola has formerly been an academy friendly director (though it's been a long while at this point).
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 9, 2023 19:12:21 GMT
I think we need to talk about Cailee Spaeny. No we don’t. Is she that bad? Or do you feel it's the kind of performance the academy typically ignores?
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Post by stephen on Sept 9, 2023 19:13:04 GMT
Pros for Spaeny:
* Volpi Cup winners for English language performances tend to historically do well with Oscar nominations. Rose Byrne is the last time an English-language actress failed to get an Oscar nomination for a Volpi-winning role.
* The role is baity as hell, and the timing of the discourse post-Elvis and Lisa Marie's passing couldn't be better.
* A24's other pony, Past Lives, seems to be winnowing a bit, and Greta Lee was always a tough sell regardless of the quality of her work.
Cons for Spaeny:
* Will A24 bother with a campaign? The word on the Lido was that Emma Stone gave the performance of the festival, but she couldn't win when Poor Things won the Lion, and A24 is very choosy about when they decide to push for awards and when they don't. Last year was an anomaly for them, and they barely did anything for The Whale and just let Fraser mania do the heavy lifting.
* Priscilla is not a hagiographic depiction of Elvis, and it might turn off a lot of voters, especially in the wake of Luhrmann's movie.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 9, 2023 19:18:38 GMT
Is she that bad? Or do you feel it's the kind of performance the academy typically ignores? She’s bland, the standout in the movie is Elordi who steals her thunder. And it is a quiet performance anyway. Unless she wins a critics trifecta, I don’t see this performance going all the way.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 9, 2023 19:24:26 GMT
Going to change my predictions:
Greta Lee - Past Lives Carey Mulligan - Maestro Margot Robbie - Barbie Cailee Spaeny - Priscilla Emma Stone - Poor Things
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2023 22:03:01 GMT
Going to change my predictions: Jodie Comer - The BikeridersCarey Mulligan - MaestroMargot Robbie - BarbieCailee Spaeny - PriscillaEmma Stone - Poor ThingsI'm going to need you to explain how Comer and Spaeny are both ahead of Bening, Barrino, Gladstone and Huller. People suddenly predicting Cailee feels incredibly reactionary.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 9, 2023 23:57:06 GMT
Going to change my predictions: Jodie Comer - The BikeridersCarey Mulligan - MaestroMargot Robbie - BarbieCailee Spaeny - PriscillaEmma Stone - Poor ThingsI'm going to need you to explain how Comer and Spaeny are both ahead of Bening, Barrino, Gladstone and Huller. People suddenly predicting Cailee feels incredibly reactionary. Cailee won the Volpi and plays a real life person. Comer is based on my projection of The Bikeriders. If Gladstone goes lead, then Comer gets the axe.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Sept 10, 2023 0:36:54 GMT
mulligan barrino robbie stone gladstone
spaney replaces gladstone if she goes supporting, and if colour purple gets delayed, swap barrino for portman
both of which options i feel are more likely than not
huller as the next up. this category is strong af this year
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 10, 2023 1:55:09 GMT
if colour purple gets delayed, swap barrino for portman According to Deadline, it's keeping its release date.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Sept 10, 2023 2:05:23 GMT
if colour purple gets delayed, swap barrino for portman According to Deadline, it's keeping its release date. idk how next years slate is looking but this year is a bloodbath for contenders so i wonder if these past festival runs will cause them to have a change of mind, especially since there’s been next to no marketing for it other than a trailer. if they keep the date though, then fuck, this category esp is too hard to predict
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2023 7:43:37 GMT
I'm going to need you to explain how Comer and Spaeny are both ahead of Bening, Barrino, Gladstone and Huller. People suddenly predicting Cailee feels incredibly reactionary. Cailee won the Volpi and plays a real life person. Comer is based on my projection of The Bikeriders. If Gladstone goes lead, then Comer gets the axe. As in you'e expecting it to get other ATL noms??
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 10, 2023 10:05:24 GMT
Cailee won the Volpi and plays a real life person. Comer is based on my projection of The Bikeriders. If Gladstone goes lead, then Comer gets the axe. As in you'e expecting it to get other ATL noms?? The Bikeriders feels like a movie which will get more attention than just Actress. Supporting Actor, writing, picture and so forth. These will change like the weather.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 10, 2023 19:20:11 GMT
Pros for Spaeny: * Volpi Cup winners for English language performances tend to historically do well with Oscar nominations. Rose Byrne is the last time an English-language actress failed to get an Oscar nomination for a Volpi-winning role. This really is an incredible statistic - I went ahead and made a list of them here (with flags! - you all know how I do): 🇦🇺Rose Byrne, The Goddess of 1967🇺🇸Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven🇬🇧Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake🇬🇧Helen Mirren, The Queen* 🇦🇺Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There🇺🇸Emma Stone, La La Land* 🇬🇧Olivia Colman, The Favourite* 🇬🇧Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman🇦🇺Cate Blanchett, Tár 🇺🇸Cailee Spaeny, PriscillaNote: Charlotte Rampling (🇬🇧) is of course herself an English-language actress, but the film for which she won, Hannah, is in French.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 11, 2023 14:51:48 GMT
Emma Stone Fantasia Barrino Greta Lee Carey Mulligan Lily Gladstone
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