Post by stephen on Sept 12, 2023 15:55:40 GMT
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro
3. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
These four feel pretty solid right now. The top two especially would shock me if they missed. Stone has the reviews and the film, and Mulligan is likely Netflix's #1 pony and playing perhaps her baitiest role to date. Barrino is close to them but we still don't have 100% certainty on whether it's coming out this year, and the lack of that certainty is what keeps things interesting, because I do think it's going to also have an effect on whether Lily Gladstone runs lead or supporting, considering her potential competition. Hüller has the critics' momentum building for her, a potential banner year, and they're already drumming up support for her in the trades. She's not as safe as the first three, but I think there's a marginal gulf between her and fifth place at the moment.
Now. Here's where it gets tricky.
I think Gladstone could run lead and could easily be secure in the nomination. It depends entirely on what the studio chooses to do. I think a win in Best Actress is doable, if they campaign it correctly. It just remains to be seen what they do.
Bening has a perceived overdue narrative but her film's reviews are pretty tepid. This usually doesn't hurt in this category the way it does with its male counterpart, but you would expect that if it is to be Bening's big play at a win, the film itself can have muscle outside of her. Foster is getting nice ink but that's about it. And I dunno, I feel that at this point, even with the (cancelled) TIFF gala, Bening is Netflix's third priority at best behind Mulligan and Portman. It still can happen but I am not convinced.
Robbie has Barbie mania behind her, but after last year's shutout I am wary of calling our shots on her again. And it's a very fun performance but not a particularly showy one, and I can see that working against her. She's a cinch for a Comedy Globe nomination, but I wonder if Stone is going to steal a lot of her thunder in playing a role with similar trappings but without the IP barrier.
Portman has Netflix and she's a prior winner, but Todd Haynes is inconsistent with nominations and the film's campy nature could see it go either way with voters. I can see it getting completely blanked.
Spaeny just won the Volpi Cup and she's playing a notable public figure, but considering Elvis was such a big deal last year and this film is a complete undercutting of the King's myth, I wonder if that same voting body will be receptive to it. Spaeny is also a comparative unknown fighting in a sea of ingenues, and A24 is so choosy with what they choose to campaign. Last year really is an anomaly, and it remains to be seen if they'll bother to put muscle in for a nomination if they don't see a win at the end of it. Plus it's been a solid, what, fifteen years since the Academy has responded to a Coppola film.
Greta Lee had the early buzz, but Past Lives is in danger of getting lost in the shuffle entirely now that big contenders are being released and not underwhelming. She's not a known actress, the performance is excellent but very subtle, and see what I said above about A24, where they might deign to put their energy behind Spaeny instead. Past Lives really is the big question mark for me this year, because realistically I can see it getting zero nominations or a Picture/Director/Actress/Screenplay combo just as easily.
I think Teyana Taylor's best hope at this stage is a Spirit nomination.
It remains to be seen what happens with Napoleon and whether they run Kirby lead or supporting, or if it's even coming out.
Lee got good notices out of TIFF for Winslet but it doesn't yet have a domestic distributor and I am getting Ammonite flashbacks.
Lange and Ronan are likely 2024.
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro
3. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
These four feel pretty solid right now. The top two especially would shock me if they missed. Stone has the reviews and the film, and Mulligan is likely Netflix's #1 pony and playing perhaps her baitiest role to date. Barrino is close to them but we still don't have 100% certainty on whether it's coming out this year, and the lack of that certainty is what keeps things interesting, because I do think it's going to also have an effect on whether Lily Gladstone runs lead or supporting, considering her potential competition. Hüller has the critics' momentum building for her, a potential banner year, and they're already drumming up support for her in the trades. She's not as safe as the first three, but I think there's a marginal gulf between her and fifth place at the moment.
Now. Here's where it gets tricky.
I think Gladstone could run lead and could easily be secure in the nomination. It depends entirely on what the studio chooses to do. I think a win in Best Actress is doable, if they campaign it correctly. It just remains to be seen what they do.
Bening has a perceived overdue narrative but her film's reviews are pretty tepid. This usually doesn't hurt in this category the way it does with its male counterpart, but you would expect that if it is to be Bening's big play at a win, the film itself can have muscle outside of her. Foster is getting nice ink but that's about it. And I dunno, I feel that at this point, even with the (cancelled) TIFF gala, Bening is Netflix's third priority at best behind Mulligan and Portman. It still can happen but I am not convinced.
Robbie has Barbie mania behind her, but after last year's shutout I am wary of calling our shots on her again. And it's a very fun performance but not a particularly showy one, and I can see that working against her. She's a cinch for a Comedy Globe nomination, but I wonder if Stone is going to steal a lot of her thunder in playing a role with similar trappings but without the IP barrier.
Portman has Netflix and she's a prior winner, but Todd Haynes is inconsistent with nominations and the film's campy nature could see it go either way with voters. I can see it getting completely blanked.
Spaeny just won the Volpi Cup and she's playing a notable public figure, but considering Elvis was such a big deal last year and this film is a complete undercutting of the King's myth, I wonder if that same voting body will be receptive to it. Spaeny is also a comparative unknown fighting in a sea of ingenues, and A24 is so choosy with what they choose to campaign. Last year really is an anomaly, and it remains to be seen if they'll bother to put muscle in for a nomination if they don't see a win at the end of it. Plus it's been a solid, what, fifteen years since the Academy has responded to a Coppola film.
Greta Lee had the early buzz, but Past Lives is in danger of getting lost in the shuffle entirely now that big contenders are being released and not underwhelming. She's not a known actress, the performance is excellent but very subtle, and see what I said above about A24, where they might deign to put their energy behind Spaeny instead. Past Lives really is the big question mark for me this year, because realistically I can see it getting zero nominations or a Picture/Director/Actress/Screenplay combo just as easily.
I think Teyana Taylor's best hope at this stage is a Spirit nomination.
It remains to be seen what happens with Napoleon and whether they run Kirby lead or supporting, or if it's even coming out.
Lee got good notices out of TIFF for Winslet but it doesn't yet have a domestic distributor and I am getting Ammonite flashbacks.
Lange and Ronan are likely 2024.