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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jul 24, 2023 14:41:39 GMT
Do we know her screen time for the film? I've spoken to a couple of people who have seen it and they say that she could go either way and it wouldn't be category fraud. One of them mentioned Olivia Colman in The Favourite as a comparison point: an essential character who is justifiably a lead, but does not have the screentime of someone else in the film who definitely is (Stone/DiCaprio). If that’s the comparison then I’ll likely end up consider her Supporting since I think Colman is clearly Supporting and not Lead.
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 14:44:09 GMT
I've spoken to a couple of people who have seen it and they say that she could go either way and it wouldn't be category fraud. One of them mentioned Olivia Colman in The Favourite as a comparison point: an essential character who is justifiably a lead, but does not have the screentime of someone else in the film who definitely is (Stone/DiCaprio). If that’s the comparison then I’ll likely end up consider her Supporting since I think Colman is clearly Supporting and not Lead. I think she's clearly co-lead with Stone and Weisz, so...
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 24, 2023 15:16:29 GMT
Only Tylerdeneuve has Winslet in his actual top 5 (?) - I know some people have her as 6th......but nah that doesn't sound right to me......... and while I guess that may not come out in 2023 - and it could blow goats (it might) she's as much of a lock sight unseen (I know, I know) of anyone I can think of? I can't believe this category is filled with stuff already seen except for Stone .......Lee is a role you'd send out your agent to get you when you want an Oscar...........she's top lining a cast of female heavy hitters of the moment - with Cotillard, Riseborough, Merlant.......strong iconic female character from history with a huge progressing arc........I may pick her for the actual win tbh Not sure it's 2023, unknown quantity directing......but still........
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 15:27:15 GMT
Only Tylerdeneuve has Winslet in his actual top 5 (?) - I know some people have her as 6th......but nah that doesn't sound right to me......... and while I guess that may not come out in 2023 - and it could blow goats (it might) she's as much of a lock sight unseen (I know, I know) of anyone I can think of? I can't believe this category is filled with stuff already seen except for Stone .......Lee is a role you'd send out your agent to get you when you want an Oscar...........she's top lining a cast of female heavy hitters of the moment - with Cotillard, Riseborough, Merlant.......strong iconic female character from history with a huge progressing arc........I may pick her for the actual win tbh Not sure it's 2023, unknown quantity directing......but still........ Winslet has only been nominated once since she won the Oscar in 2008. She is a generational talent, but she misses with Oscar just as much as she hits, and there's not a distributor for it yet. With the strike and with films getting shoved down the pike, it's not even a guarantee her film comes out this year, especially as there is zero promotion for it and it's almost August.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 24, 2023 15:39:07 GMT
Assuming Mulligan and Gladstone both go lead and Bening, Barrino and Winslet get pushed (Lange too but I never had much faith for this season).
Lily Gladstone Carey Mulligan Natalie Portman Greta Lee Margot Robbie
HM: Sandra Hüller
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 24, 2023 15:53:13 GMT
Only Tylerdeneuve has Winslet in his actual top 5 (?) - I know some people have her as 6th......but nah that doesn't sound right to me......... and while I guess that may not come out in 2023 - and it could blow goats (it might) she's as much of a lock sight unseen (I know, I know) of anyone I can think of? I can't believe this category is filled with stuff already seen except for Stone .......Lee is a role you'd send out your agent to get you when you want an Oscar...........she's top lining a cast of female heavy hitters of the moment - with Cotillard, Riseborough, Merlant.......strong iconic female character from history with a huge progressing arc........I may pick her for the actual win tbh Not sure it's 2023, unknown quantity directing......but still........ Winslet has only been nominated once since she won the Oscar in 2008. She is a generational talent, but she misses with Oscar just as much as she hits, and there's not a distributor for it yet. With the strike and with films getting shoved down the pike, it's not even a guarantee her film comes out this year, especially as there is zero promotion for it and it's almost August. Not really - she has more Oscar nominations than any active male or female for her age - that's more of an all-time talent not generational - what should she have 11 nods at 47? Of course she misses a lot.......that's like saying DiCaprio misses a lot.......he does but that isn't remotely relevant to 2023 .............and Lee Miller is her first time playing Lee Miller after all.......I agree no distributor is a huge problem getting it out in 2023 - but let's see how that plays out - not everyone is gonna bail on 2023 depending if and who nabs it............ zero promotion and it's almost August happened just 2 years ago with Kidman and Bardem getting nodded ffs.....
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 16:02:02 GMT
Winslet has only been nominated once since she won the Oscar in 2008. She is a generational talent, but she misses with Oscar just as much as she hits, and there's not a distributor for it yet. With the strike and with films getting shoved down the pike, it's not even a guarantee her film comes out this year, especially as there is zero promotion for it and it's almost August. Not really - she has more Oscar nominations than any active male or female for her age - that's more of an all-time talent not generational - what should she have 11 nods at 47? Of course she misses a lot.......that's like saying DiCaprio misses a lot.......he does but that isn't remotely relevant to 2023 .............and Lee Miller is her first time playing Lee Miller after all.......I agree no distributor is a huge problem getting it out in 2023 - but let's see how that plays out - not everyone is gonna bail on 2023 depending if and who nabs it............ zero promotion and it's almost August happened just 2 years ago with Kidman and Bardem getting nodded ffs.....DiCaprio doesn't miss a lot in relation to the amount of films he makes. Don't Look Up is really the only notable miss in the last decade. Winslet, however, struggled to get nominated after her Reader win probably because that was an overdue career win and it's hard to parlay that into regular nominations afterward because they already went through that process. There's no urgency to recognize her again. She has more Oscar nominations than most, but those happened in a very quick succession from a very early age, and as actresses age, their parts tend to dry up. Blanchett has easily usurped Winslet's momentum and it seems that lately, Kate has been playing catch-up. Being the Ricardos was a Sorkin movie with A-list actors playing revered TV stars pushed by Amazon. It was in the ether and had a distributor from the start. People knew what it was going to be. Lee doesn't have a stateside distributor. Its director has never been on Oscar's radar. And this is the real point: there is a fucking strike going on. A film that hinges on its lead actress for promotion to build that momentum won't have Winslet working the circuit and doing press if the strike continues. Winslet is a phenomenal actress but her name alone can't get it into the Oscar conversation, especially if she's not talking about it. What you're going to see, if this strike goes on, is the earlier releases benefitting greatly and the films that have distributors doing their best to strategically reshuffle to take advantage of the vacancies. If Lee doesn't get to do the festival circuit (which it likely won't, given that its actors can't promote it and they're mostly SAG-AFTRA), then a studio isn't going to scramble in the next few months to get it bought, build a campaign, and promote it with those missing ingredients. It will likely be a 2024 release, if that.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 24, 2023 16:10:50 GMT
Not really - she has more Oscar nominations than any active male or female for her age - that's more of an all-time talent not generational - what should she have 11 nods at 47? Of course she misses a lot.......that's like saying DiCaprio misses a lot.......he does but that isn't remotely relevant to 2023 .............and Lee Miller is her first time playing Lee Miller after all.......I agree no distributor is a huge problem getting it out in 2023 - but let's see how that plays out - not everyone is gonna bail on 2023 depending if and who nabs it............ zero promotion and it's almost August happened just 2 years ago with Kidman and Bardem getting nodded ffs.....DiCaprio doesn't miss a lot in relation to the amount o f films he makes. Don't Look Up is really the only notable miss in the last decade.
What you're going to see, if this strike goes on, is the earlier releases benefitting greatly and the films that have distributors doing their best to strategically reshuffle to take advantage of the vacancies.Well he's also a man - and men have different situations, career, competition.......circumstances. But DiCap missed for Django to me that was a bg miss - it happens - she still has 7 nods - it's not like she CAN"T get nodded and they hate her or something (that's closer to Gosling actually) and it's a great - very great role ......... she just had a wildly acclaimed TV role that sets up a return to the Oscar lineup too..........we'll see how it plays out - no one at this time in 2022 had Andrea Riseborough in a lineup yanno so there's lots of possibilities / detours......... It's going to be quite a clusterfuck with this strike - lots of chatter of no end insight..........going into next year.......
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 16:17:53 GMT
DiCaprio doesn't miss a lot in relation to the amount o f films he makes. Don't Look Up is really the only notable miss in the last decade.
What you're going to see, if this strike goes on, is the earlier releases benefitting greatly and the films that have distributors doing their best to strategically reshuffle to take advantage of the vacancies.Well he's also a man - and men have different situations, career, competition.......circumstances. But DiCap missed for Django to me that was a bg miss - it happens - she still has 7 nods - it's not like she CAN"T get nodded and they hate her or something (that's actually closer to Gosling actually) and it's a great - very great role ......... she just had wildly acclaimed TV role that sets up a return to the Oscar lineup too..........we'll see how it plays out - no one at this time in 2022 had Andrea Riseborough in a lineup yanno so there's lots of possibilities / detours......... It's going to be quite a clusterfuck with this strike - lots of chatter of no end insight..........going into next year....... DiCaprio missing for Django was easily explainable. His character was a vile racist spewing epithets and there has always been a reticence for the Academy to embrace a performance like that, especially if there is a palatable alternative in that same film. Waltz had more screentime, he played a more likable and rootable character, and he arguably dominated that film in a way even DiCaprio didn't. Also, I have a theory that Weinstein's pointed "Leave DiCaprio to me" from Cannes meant that maybe he tried too hard to push that performance on voters and they just didn't like it. This was the last year where Weinstein really had strong Oscar success; the successive years saw his influence really begin to wane with the Academy. Say what you want about Winslet's stature with nominations, she still has only been nominated once since 2008. Once. It has nothing to do with whether or not they like her, but do they feel the need to recognize her? It's actually not too different than Pacino's situation post-1992. He got his overdue Oscar, and they looked elsewhere. They don't feel the need or the drive to keep going back to the Winslet well. And even so, that's not the film's biggest hurdle. The strike and the lack of US distribution is what you should be focusing on.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 24, 2023 16:33:13 GMT
Well he's also a man - and men have different situations, career, competition.......circumstances. But DiCap missed for Django to me that was a bg miss - it happens - she still has 7 nods - it's not like she CAN"T get nodded and they hate her or something (that's actually closer to Gosling actually) and it's a great - very great role ......... she just had wildly acclaimed TV role that sets up a return to the Oscar lineup too..........we'll see how it plays out - no one at this time in 2022 had Andrea Riseborough in a lineup yanno so there's lots of possibilities / detours......... It's going to be quite a clusterfuck with this strike - lots of chatter of no end insight..........going into next year....... DiCaprio missing for Django was easily explainable. His character was a vile racist spewing epithets and there has always been a reticence for the Academy to embrace a performance like that, especially if there is a palatable alternative in that same film. Waltz had more screentime, he played a more likable and rootable character, and he arguably dominated that film in a way even DiCaprio didn't. Also, I have a theory that Weinstein's pointed "Leave DiCaprio to me" from Cannes meant that maybe he tried too hard to push that performance on voters and they just didn't like it. This was the last year where Weinstein really had strong Oscar success; the successive years saw his influence really begin to wane with the Academy. Say what you want about Winslet's stature with nominations, she still has only been nominated once since 2008. Once. It has nothing to do with whether or not they like her, but do they feel the need to recognize her? It's actually not too different than Pacino's situation post-1992. He got his overdue Oscar, and they looked elsewhere. They don't feel the need or the drive to keep going back to the Winslet well. And even so, that's not the film's biggest hurdle. The strike and the lack of US distribution is what you should be focusing on. Allow me to chime into this ping pong match. Lee is only being distributed at the moment by Sky Cinema, a British television subscription service. It doesn't have an American distributor. This film either needs a film festival push or a major studio to back it. So far, we're not seeing either. This seems like an 2024-25 awards season push.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 24, 2023 16:40:28 GMT
Lee and Nyad are premiering at TIFF
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 24, 2023 16:42:09 GMT
Lee and Nyad are premiering at TIFFWe will see if anybody at Toronto picks up Lee.
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 16:42:17 GMT
All me to chime into this ping pong match. Lee is only being distributed at the moment by Sky Cinema, a British television subscription service. It doesn't have an American distributor. This film either needs a film festival push or a major studio to back it. So far, we're not seeing either. This seems like an 2024-25 awards season push. Exactly. And what studio is going to snap it up in the middle of a strike in hopes of rolling it out quickly without Winslet et al. being able to do press for it, and without being able to go through the festival circuit? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it winds up as a TV film at some point.
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Post by stephen on Jul 24, 2023 16:43:44 GMT
Lee and Nyad are premiering at TIFFBut we saw that TIFF was planning on doing this huge gala thing for Annette Bening that they had to cancel. They can still play at TIFF but we've seen plenty of films go to TIFF and then go dormant until the following year ( Crash[/i famously premiered at TIFF in 2004 and was held off till the following year).
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 24, 2023 16:53:48 GMT
Lee and Nyad are premiering at TIFFBut we saw that TIFF was planning on doing this huge gala thing for Annette Bening that they had to cancel. They can still play at TIFF but we've seen plenty of films go to TIFF and then go dormant until the following year ( Crash[/i famously premiered at TIFF in 2004 and was held off till the following year).Yeah anything could happen. This Oscar season will keep us on our toes until the very end.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 25, 2023 11:28:41 GMT
Only Tylerdeneuve has Winslet in his actual top 5 (?) - I know some people have her as 6th......but nah that doesn't sound right to me......... and while I guess that may not come out in 2023 - and it could blow goats (it might) she's as much of a lock sight unseen (I know, I know) of anyone I can think of? I can't believe this category is filled with stuff already seen except for Stone .......Lee is a role you'd send out your agent to get you when you want an Oscar...........she's top lining a cast of female heavy hitters of the moment - with Cotillard, Riseborough, Merlant.......strong iconic female character from history with a huge progressing arc........I may pick her for the actual win tbh Not sure it's 2023, unknown quantity directing......but still........ Everything I said in this post - everything - is right - her film may not come out in 2023 (see above ^).........yesterday it was later announced that at least it gets viewed at TIFF though almost at the same time as I posted this .....and she's not really undernominated ........and it's a great role...........number of likes by MAR wackadoodles : 0.......GTFO But if the rain falls on on Kate Winslet and this dosn't get picked up perhaps.....then the rain falls on another "sure" nominee.........maybe (?) the mighty Emma Stone.........could open up a sure spot.........could it get pushed to 2024 ?......does it depend on how it plays @ Venice? "Unsurprisingly, three of the films aren’t based on intellectual property and are led by movie stars performances, exactly the kind of projects that studio executives are worried about releasing. That’s because the ongoing strike means that actors are prohibited from promoting their films and without movie stars pushing them in person and online, studios are rightly concerned that they won’t garner enough buzz to break even, much less make a profit.
The three films that fit the description above are Poor Things, Magazine Dreams and Next Goal Wins.
Poor Things is the highly-anticipated and latest film by Yorgos Lanthimos and boasts the kind of talented ensemble that Searchlight Pictures needs to harness to drive buzz for the film’s slated September release. Emma Stone, Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo, Margaret Qualley, Christopher Abbott, Ramy Youssef and Jerrod Carmichael all star."
filmstories.co.uk/news/poor-things-next-goal-wins-among-disney-films-facing-possible-delays-to-2024/
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 25, 2023 11:47:49 GMT
"Unsurprisingly, three of the films aren’t based on intellectual property and are led by movie stars performances, exactly the kind of projects that studio executives are worried about releasing. That’s because the ongoing strike means that actors are prohibited from promoting their films and without movie stars pushing them in person and online, studios are rightly concerned that they won’t garner enough buzz to break even, much less make a profit.
The three films that fit the description above are Poor Things, Magazine Dreams and Next Goal Wins. Poor Things definitely benefits from the cast, Stone especially, promoting it. But I think for Magazine Dreams, it could be saving grace to release it without a Majors promotional campaign, but I mean the film still feels too toxic to release. I also don't think Fassbender (who has had his own domestic abuse accusations if we have to get into that) is that vital to either Next Goal Wins or The Killer. EDIT: According to Ruimy, Poor Things and Next Goal Wins are getting pushed. Next Goal Wins is cursed. I stand by that it was the dumbest move ever not to release it during the world cup/Oscar season last year. It was ton of free publicity but noooo.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jul 25, 2023 19:02:29 GMT
"Unsurprisingly, three of the films aren’t based on intellectual property and are led by movie stars performances, exactly the kind of projects that studio executives are worried about releasing. That’s because the ongoing strike means that actors are prohibited from promoting their films and without movie stars pushing them in person and online, studios are rightly concerned that they won’t garner enough buzz to break even, much less make a profit.
The three films that fit the description above are Poor Things, Magazine Dreams and Next Goal Wins. Poor Things definitely benefits from the cast, Stone especially, promoting it. But I think for Magazine Dreams, it could be saving grace to release it without a Majors promotional campaign, but I mean the film still feels too toxic to release. I also don't think Fassbender (who has had his own domestic abuse accusations if we have to get into that) is that vital to either Next Goal Wins or The Killer. EDIT: According to Ruimy, Poor Things and Next Goal Wins are getting pushed. Next Goal Wins is cursed. I stand by that it was the dumbest move ever not to release it during the world cup/Oscar season last year. It was ton of free publicity but noooo. Poor Things was only pushed to December so it's still 2023. A December release is probably better for Stone anyway.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 24, 2023 17:03:08 GMT
Okay, The Film Experience officially has their predictions posted. 1. Annette Bening, Nyad2. Emma Stone, Poor Things3. Margot Robbie, Barbie4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
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Post by stephen on Aug 24, 2023 17:17:40 GMT
Okay, The Film Experience officially has their predictions posted. 1. Annette Bening, Nyad2. Emma Stone, Poor Things3. Margot Robbie, Barbie4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color PurpleI can see this. I'd bump Bening down a bit because I feel like she's going to have by far the weakest movie of the bunch and we've seen overdue narratives fall on their faces time and again, and she's also got Portman from the same studio to contend with and we know that film has got muscle outside of Best Actress. But yeah, I think everyone's sleeping on Stone and I think Robbie's looking safer for the nomination now.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 24, 2023 17:29:59 GMT
stephen - Did you see their choices rounding out a Top 15 of possible contenders? (I'll go ahead and post them here.) 6. Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night7. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall8. Natalie Portman, May December9. Greta Lee, Past Lives10. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One11. Kate Winslet, Lee12. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla13. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon14. Helen Mirren, Golda15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe
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Post by stephen on Aug 24, 2023 17:38:48 GMT
stephen - Did you see their choices rounding out a Top 15 of possible contenders? (I'll go ahead and post them here.) 6. Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night7. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall8. Natalie Portman, May December9. Greta Lee, Past Lives10. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One11. Kate Winslet, Lee12. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla13. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon14. Helen Mirren, Golda15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe Lange is very likely to get pushed to 2024, and I'd bump Huller into the top five. Portman and Lee would be on the cusp of the top five, but I think Portman's likelier as Lee's film would need a resurgence. Taylor I don't really think will get much muscle beyond a Spirit nomination, I don't have much faith in Winslet or Spaeny, Kirby will likely go supporting, Mirren feels like "This Had Oscar Buzz" boiled down to a single person, and I don't have a whole lot of faith in Foe as an Oscar vehicle but it could surprise.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Aug 24, 2023 17:49:15 GMT
I suppose the real question is... who will Frances Fisher throw her might behind this year? Sifting through her screeners:
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Post by stephen on Aug 24, 2023 18:02:40 GMT
I suppose the real question is... who will Frances Fisher throw her might behind this year? I genuinely want The Big Short but with Oscar campaigning, and Jessica Chastain wins her second Oscar playing Frances Fisher as a chain-smokin', hard-drinkin' doyenne who goes rogue to promote a small film with a big heart.
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Post by JangoB on Aug 25, 2023 22:32:16 GMT
Upd:
- Emma Stone, Poor Things - Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall - Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple - Carey Mulligan, Maestro - Margot Robbie, Barbie
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