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Post by stephen on Sept 10, 2022 13:42:19 GMT
There is plenty of room to still doubt Yeoh. Earliest release of any major contender, a studio that hasn't really cared much about awards campaigning, an extremely unorthodox film for the Academy, and an extremely dense slate of contenders. Someone's getting left out, and Yeoh has a fair amount of cons in her column that I think a lot of people are overlooking. The good thing about her is that she is getting some profile out there, and the film's made sizable bank for what it is, and there is the growing momentum surrounding the "first Asian actress to get a Best Actress nod" narrative, but she could easily get Delroy'd. In terms of competitors we've already seen: Blanchett and Colman are very strong bets. You can't bet against either of them. SAG loves Davis and you have to expect she's always going to be in the conversation to get that perennially predicted Best Actress win they think she's due, so you can't count her out. Ana de Armas could conceivably Spencer it to a nomination with the right campaign. Then there's the unseen element of Robbie, Ackie, Deadwyler, and King. I would imagine Williams will go supporting but we still don't yet know how major she is and if they can reasonably category-fraud her if she's, say, got the most screentime and focus (even if it's a movie where the kid is the central character). Someone's getting shut out. And Yeoh is by no means safe. 2023 The Lindo comparison still isn't working for me at all. EEAAO has made a much bigger cultural impact than Da 5 Blood ever did, and Yeoh is seen as way more overdue than Lindo. EEAAO is A24's #1, whilst Netflix clearly had bigger priorities than the Spike. That explains why we've not seen any news on Shirley. My point still stands. Yes, Everything Everywhere has done exceedingly well and had a cultural impact, but will that translate to industry love? I still have my doubts. And it might be A24's #1, but as seen with films like Uncut Gems, The Farewell, Hereditary, Midsommar and The Lighthouse, that doesn't mean shit if they aren't willing to actually push the movie. Right now it's almost exclusively word of mouth that's keeping that film afloat, and we're about to get clobbered with new releases that could suck that oxygen up.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2022 14:49:22 GMT
2023 The Lindo comparison still isn't working for me at all. EEAAO has made a much bigger cultural impact than Da 5 Blood ever did, and Yeoh is seen as way more overdue than Lindo. EEAAO is A24's #1, whilst Netflix clearly had bigger priorities than the Spike. That explains why we've not seen any news on Shirley. My point still stands. Yes, Everything Everywhere has done exceedingly well and had a cultural impact, but will that translate to industry love? I still have my doubts. And it might be A24's #1, but as seen with films like Uncut Gems, The Farewell, Hereditary, Midsommar and The Lighthouse, that doesn't mean shit if they aren't willing to actually push the movie. Right now it's almost exclusively word of mouth that's keeping that film afloat, and we're about to get clobbered with new releases that could suck that oxygen up. A24 would be pretty stupid to not realise the goldmine they have on their hands, I definitely think they're going to campaign pretty hard.
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Post by michael128 on Sept 10, 2022 17:08:18 GMT
I don't see Davis getting close to the mentions that Blanchett has gotten to actually win, and Blanchett is going to have a ton of critics awards you would figure - her momentum hasn't started and that's 100% RT, 91% Metacritic. It might be sad to see Davis lose to a white female getting her 3rd win again - when they apparently won't give Davis her BA actress...or so it seems anyway..... I could see Yeoh missing but not right now I don't....I don't think she's like Lindo much tbh - Lindo was really hurt by the resolution of his character - among many other specific things....and crucially Lindo's film got almost no nods (1 for music) - and Yeoh's is a no shit genius player in multiple, bigger categories including BP ....like I said - she "could" miss but I can't really predict that in September.... RT and metacritic scores for the last 10 best actress winners’ films?
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2022 17:22:01 GMT
I don't see Davis getting close to the mentions that Blanchett has gotten to actually win, and Blanchett is going to have a ton of critics awards you would figure - her momentum hasn't started and that's 100% RT, 91% Metacritic. It might be sad to see Davis lose to a white female getting her 3rd win again - when they apparently won't give Davis her BA actress...or so it seems anyway..... I could see Yeoh missing but not right now I don't....I don't think she's like Lindo much tbh - Lindo was really hurt by the resolution of his character - among many other specific things....and crucially Lindo's film got almost no nods (1 for music) - and Yeoh's is a no shit genius player in multiple, bigger categories including BP ....like I said - she "could" miss but I can't really predict that in September.... RT and metacritic scores for the last 10 best actress winners’ films? Well in the 1 that mostly resembles Blanchett this year - 93% and 93% for McDormand in Nomadland........so pretty close which wasn't your point but kinda suggests my point. Not calling Blanchett a lock - at all - I'm just saying Davis reviews stress the whole ensemble ..........Blanchett's reviews stress her........that matters ..........the person who beats Blanchett may be someone else.......Deadwyler.......Ackie........I dunno ............I wouldn't count Davis out though - I've said this before - she's the only African American Triple Crown winner - male or female, ever............not Denzel.......not Freeman........ already lots of people think she's owed a BA .......
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Post by michael128 on Sept 10, 2022 17:25:34 GMT
RT and metacritic scores for the last 10 best actress winners’ films? Well in the 1 that mostly resembles Blanchett this year - 93% and 93% for McDormand in Nomadland........so pretty close which wasn't your point but kinda suggests my point. Not calling Blanchett a lock - at all - I'm just saying Davis reviews stress the whole ensemble ..........Blanchett's reviews stress her........that matters ..........the person who beats Blanchett may be someone else.......Deadwyler.......Ackie........I dunno ............I wouldn't count Davis out though - I've said this before - she's the only African American Triple Crown winner - male or female, ever............not Denzel.......not Freeman........ already lots of people think she's owed a BA ....... Your second paragraph is incomprehensible sorry. I do not have a response. But I was not making a point, I was asking a question. Your hesitance to answer it suggests that I may have actually proven the imaginary point you’re accusing me of. Let me know.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2022 17:34:01 GMT
Well in the 1 that mostly resembles Blanchett this year - 93% and 93% for McDormand in Nomadland........so pretty close which wasn't your point but kinda suggests my point. Not calling Blanchett a lock - at all - I'm just saying Davis reviews stress the whole ensemble ..........Blanchett's reviews stress her........that matters ..........the person who beats Blanchett may be someone else.......Deadwyler.......Ackie........I dunno ............I wouldn't count Davis out though - I've said this before - she's the only African American Triple Crown winner - male or female, ever............not Denzel.......not Freeman........ already lots of people think she's owed a BA ....... Your second paragraph is incomprehensible sorry. I do not have a response. But I was not making a point, I was asking a question. Your hesitance to answer it suggests that I may have actually proven the imaginary point you’re accusing me of. Let me know. My hesistancy to answer is because I do not know - have you tried to Google this perhaps - but I know that RT and MC scores don't correspond to Best Actress winners usually - neither were great for Chastain or Zellwegger for example ........but the year this year corresponds with for a 2 X Oscar winning front-runner is 2020........... which I listed for you ^, so you only have to check the other 9 years if you want to ..........but woudn't be necessary anyway since you already have 2020 Um
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Post by michael128 on Sept 11, 2022 6:56:27 GMT
Your second paragraph is incomprehensible sorry. I do not have a response. But I was not making a point, I was asking a question. Your hesitance to answer it suggests that I may have actually proven the imaginary point you’re accusing me of. Let me know. My hesistancy to answer is because I do not know - have you tried to Google this perhaps - but I know that RT and MC scores don't correspond to Best Actress winners usually - neither were great for Chastain or Zellwegger for example ........but the year this year corresponds with for a 2 X Oscar winning front-runner is 2020........... which I listed for you ^, so you only have to check the other 9 years if you want to ..........but woudn't be necessary anyway since you already have 2020 Um I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say. My deepest apologies if you're ESL, in which case I commend you, but otherwise please take a writing class.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 20, 2022 11:50:42 GMT
Colman is in no way a lock for a nod ......I know she's respected and stuff but I'm not sure this year she gets that automatic check off box......
Her movie is at 50% RT atm - and while that will go up - she's not going to get above Blanchett who is far in front, Davis who has the reviews and a commercial hit to get a nod, Yeoh for all the reasons discussed already - possibly Deadwyler who could upset Blanchett maybe - and sight unseen Robbie .....earlier when people were predicting Yeoh being snubbed - I think it's rather Colman who is in that shaky, begging to be knocked out 5th spot........ and I like Colman a lot - deserved all her nods, and heck I have a crush on the young Olivia Colman in Peep Show atm ......and while I have my doubts about Babylon - the 1st trailer sucked ino, whatever that "means" - but I see 4 people ahead of Colman and I'm not sure (at all) Chazelle isn't going to deliver 2 Oscar nods for his movie - Pitt and Robbie .....I doubt Mendes more with actors tbh.....
Not saying she can't get in - of course she can - but I'mmina say it isnt going to be at Yeoh's expense at least (even with A24 running the campaign).....and I'm not sure she stands out over those other potential rivals ....
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 20, 2022 16:12:46 GMT
Blanchett Yeoh Robbie Deadwyler Davis
These are my current five.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 21, 2022 18:10:08 GMT
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 21, 2022 18:15:03 GMT
I’m not to worried about that. The studio will likely change their minds and he’s not exactly providing a source anyways.
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2022 18:17:52 GMT
Michelle Williams looking to play on hard mode this season.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 21, 2022 18:19:46 GMT
yeah I was wondering about that the other day. Parents in coming of age films often go lead historically and I keep hearing people describe the parents in Fabelman's as the main characters.
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 21, 2022 18:31:54 GMT
MICHELLE WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 21, 2022 18:43:24 GMT
Feels like a disastrous decision on the part of Williams, her team, and the studio. Unless her role really is *that* big, I don't see how she can compete against Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, who are in films that entirely rest on their shoulders.
It would make those respective races more interesting tho. Supporting actress would go from basically a done-deal in September to a completely wide open field.
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Post by thomasjerome on Sept 21, 2022 18:48:11 GMT
Variety says they've confirmed that information as well. I wonder if Dano will also go lead now?
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Post by JangoB on Sept 21, 2022 19:06:54 GMT
Goddamit, why does every Spielberg movie have to have some sort of campaign blunder lately? First it was the withholding of screeners until the last minute with The Post and WSS, and now this silliness? Of course the season hasn't really started yet but Williams still seemed like a surefire bet in Supporting. Why on earth would those who came up with this choice do so? Ugh. I really do hope that they change their mind or that the AMPAS folks go their own way and put her in Supporting anyway.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 21, 2022 19:23:09 GMT
If she's really as good as people say she won't have any problem landing a nomination. She might not be the frontrunner in lead but she's still probably a lock.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 21, 2022 19:50:15 GMT
If she's really as good as people say she won't have any problem landing a nomination. She might not be the frontrunner in lead but she's still probably a lock. She seems like a great bet for a nomination either way but the thing in question here is her winning. From the looks of it, in Supporting she could have become that undeniable frontrunner we get every year. Placing her in lead where she's gonna compete with the apparently titanic Blanchett performance is just a huge blow to her winning chances. Especially since Blanchett's movie is all about her while The Fabelmans is more of an ensemble piece.
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 21, 2022 20:09:58 GMT
Eh, I doubt the powers that be will maintain this course once it becomes obvious that the win seems very unlikely (though indeed a nomination is possible). I could easily see Williams pulling a Maggie Gyllenhaal or Christoph Waltz (getting snubbed at SAG leading to the category switch), or I could even see voters saying "nah you're supporting" like they did with James Cromwell for Babe.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 21, 2022 20:49:56 GMT
Yeah, I don't see it sticking. Seems suicidal exchange the easiest win in a long time for a death match in the leading category.
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2022 20:54:08 GMT
Meanwhile, Babylon is scrambling to put Margot Robbie into supporting to fill the void.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 21:47:09 GMT
Williams is pulling a 2018 Colman.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 21, 2022 23:13:45 GMT
Williams is pulling a 2018 Colman. That was a weak year for Actress. Close was riding the overdue narrative - in a mediocre film where she was the only nominee.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2022 13:40:50 GMT
Thoughts on the possibility of a nomination for Vicky Krieps in Corsage? Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience currently has her ranked seventh in his Best Actress predictions, saying: "Every year needs a subtitled Best Actress contender. Might Krieps be it for this well-regarded star turn? Oscar loves royalty porn and biopics. Any of that Phantom Thread momentum still around?"
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