|
Post by mhynson27 on Aug 22, 2022 13:59:56 GMT
If I had to reassess this list, I'd move Yeoh up to the 6-8 range (but Blanchett could easily surge back if Venice word is good) and I think I'd drop King lower. Buzz on Shirley is crickets right now and I'm kinda surprised about that.I could be tripping, but I feel like I heard that it might not even come out this year.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Aug 22, 2022 14:00:23 GMT
Ackie Colman Davis Robbie Yeoh Swap out Davis for Blanchett
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Aug 22, 2022 14:03:36 GMT
If I had to reassess this list, I'd move Yeoh up to the 6-8 range (but Blanchett could easily surge back if Venice word is good) and I think I'd drop King lower. Buzz on Shirley is crickets right now and I'm kinda surprised about that.I could be tripping, but I feel like I heard that it might not even come out this year. I thought I heard that test screenings didn't go well, but I could be mistaken. But yeah, very odd that there's no word about it at this stage of the year.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2022 16:21:42 GMT
The fact that no "openly" Asian woman (looking at you, Merle Oberon) has been nominated in this category is beyond embarrassing at this point. Break the barrier, Michelle Yeoh.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Aug 24, 2022 0:18:42 GMT
How quickly we forget Emma Stone
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 4, 2022 3:11:46 GMT
It's September and all that, but it really does seem like we have a strong 4 right out of the gate.
|
|
|
Post by MsMovieStar on Sept 4, 2022 7:16:38 GMT
Oh honeys, '"Do you want rice and beans with that?"
I should be at the top of that list: I've been rehearsing the line in my new movie for the last three months with a voice coach. I'm sweeping this year!
It's obvious to everyone that the Best Actress Oscar is gonna be mine!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2022 2:51:47 GMT
It's September and all that, but it really does seem like we have a strong 4 right out of the gate. Blanchett, Colman, Yeoh, and... ? Danielle Deadwyler?
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 7, 2022 2:59:27 GMT
It's September and all that, but it really does seem like we have a strong 4 right out of the gate. Blanchett, Colman, Yeoh, and... ? Danielle Deadwyler? I can’t speak for him but I think Margo would really have to bomb to not get in for Babylon. I’ve read the script and that part is so juicy.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 7, 2022 16:34:15 GMT
Yeah, was thinking of Margot. I also tentatively have Ackie above Deadwyler.
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Sept 7, 2022 21:24:40 GMT
1. Robbie 2. Ackie 3. Blanchett 4. Colman 5. Yeoh
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 7, 2022 21:43:55 GMT
There's still the question on whether Michelle Williams is running as a lead for The Fablemans. I know we're thinking she's a supporting frontrunner but we still don't yet know how essential she is to the film and if she's a massive presence, it might be hard to fraud her. At least with Jojo Rabbit, Johansson was actually supporting and the screentime reflected it.
|
|
|
Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 7, 2022 21:46:12 GMT
Is anyone still predicting Greta Gerwig and Florence Pugh ?
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 7, 2022 23:37:45 GMT
Is anyone still predicting Greta Gerwig and Florence Pugh ? I was never predicting Gerwig but was for Pugh. Definitely not predicting her anymore
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 8, 2022 22:31:19 GMT
There's still the question on whether Michelle Williams is running as a lead for The Fablemans. I know we're thinking she's a supporting frontrunner but we still don't yet know how essential she is to the film and if she's a massive presence, it might be hard to fraud her. At least with Jojo Rabbit, Johansson was actually supporting and the screentime reflected it. Not sure why you'd want to go against the trio of Blanchett/Robbie/Yeoh though. Supporting would be a much safer play.
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,828
Likes: 1,615
|
Post by flasuss on Sept 9, 2022 1:34:27 GMT
Based on reviews, Ana de Armas has to be listed as a contender, even if I don't see her winning
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2022 4:41:08 GMT
Based on reviews, Ana de Armas has to be listed as a contender, even if I don't see her winning I'd have her 6th or 7th atm.
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2022 7:03:30 GMT
This category looks way more stacked than Best Actor this year. Based on early reactions at TIFF, Viola Davis is a serious contender for The Woman King. I'm reading a lot of comparisons to Gladiator. It's supposed to be a crowd pleaser, so it might even be BP contender . It looks like this could potentially be the vehicle to get Davis the Best Actress Oscar to go with her supporting one. But yeah, Best Actress is looking like a bloodbath this year.
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2022 7:11:36 GMT
I'm also starting to think Michelle Yeoh could miss. She has early passion and was in a hit movie, but Blanchett and Davis are already looking like potential contenders for the win. Ana De Armas is a legit contender as well, at least for the nomination. And we still have the likes of Michelle Williams, Naomi Ackie, Margot Robbie, Olivia Colman etc to come. There seems like there might also be other late breakers like Regina King etc.
Looks to be at least 8 or 9 strong contenders for only 5 spots Feels like with so many options, Yeoh could fall by the wayside, especially as her movie might be seen as a bit oddball and more of a technical/editing achievement. AMPAS track record with acknowledging performances from Asian actors has been pretty weak, though that might help Yeoh if people are reminded enough thar Asian actors get snubbed too easily. But the more contenders that keep coming through, the more vulnerable she gets to be a "shock" snub (Delroy Lindo style).
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 10, 2022 8:21:49 GMT
I'm also starting to think Michelle Yeoh could miss. She has early passion and was in a hit movie, but Blanchett and Davis are already looking like potential contenders for the win. Ana De Armas is a legit contender as well, at least for the nomination. And we still have the likes of Michelle Williams, Naomi Ackie, Margot Robbie, Olivia Colman etc to come. There seems like there might also be other late breakers like Regina King etc. Looks to be at least 8 or 9 strong contenders for only 5 spots Feels like with so many options, Yeoh could fall by the wayside, especially as her movie might be seen as a bit oddball and more of a technical/editing achievement. AMPAS track record with acknowledging performances from Asian actors has been pretty weak, though that might help Yeoh if people are reminded enough thar Asian actors get snubbed too easily. But the more contenders that keep coming through, the more vulnerable she gets to be a "shock" snub ( Delroy Lindo style). There is definitely a possibility of a Yeoh miss, and Lindo is a very good comparison point. Everything Everywhere All At Once has done remarkably well at the box-office, but it spent most of the year as the only known quantity, and it is still an extremely oddball choice for the Academy, and it remains to be seen how much muscle A24 is going to put behind it.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2022 12:59:36 GMT
Y'all of little faith. Yeoh is still Top 3, and I don't think Davis will be strong enough to break through for the win. Also, once again, I'd be truly shocked if Williams went Lead, and we don't really have Colman "still to come", her movie has already premiered.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 10, 2022 13:26:32 GMT
Y'all of little faith. Yeoh is still Top 3, and I don't think Davis will be strong enough to break through for the win. Also, once again, I'd be truly shocked if Williams went Lead, and we don't really have Colman "still to come", her movie has already premiered. There is plenty of room to still doubt Yeoh. Earliest release of any major contender, a studio that hasn't really cared much about awards campaigning, an extremely unorthodox film for the Academy, and an extremely dense slate of contenders. Someone's getting left out, and Yeoh has a fair amount of cons in her column that I think a lot of people are overlooking. The good thing about her is that she is getting some profile out there, and the film's made sizable bank for what it is, and there is the growing momentum surrounding the "first Asian actress to get a Best Actress nod" narrative, but she could easily get Delroy'd. In terms of competitors we've already seen: Blanchett and Colman are very strong bets. You can't bet against either of them. SAG loves Davis and you have to expect she's always going to be in the conversation to get that perennially predicted Best Actress win they think she's due, so you can't count her out. Ana de Armas could conceivably Spencer it to a nomination with the right campaign. Then there's the unseen element of Robbie, Ackie, Deadwyler, and King. I would imagine Williams will go supporting but we still don't yet know how major she is and if they can reasonably category-fraud her if she's, say, got the most screentime and focus (even if it's a movie where the kid is the central character). Someone's getting shut out. And Yeoh is by no means safe.
|
|
LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
Posts: 2,284
Likes: 2,819
|
Post by LaraQ on Sept 10, 2022 13:27:42 GMT
1.Blanchett. 2.Robbie. 3.Yeoh. 4.Colman 5.De Armas.
Alt:Naomi Ackie.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2022 13:33:12 GMT
Y'all of little faith. Yeoh is still Top 3, and I don't think Davis will be strong enough to break through for the win. Also, once again, I'd be truly shocked if Williams went Lead, and we don't really have Colman "still to come", her movie has already premiered. There is plenty of room to still doubt Yeoh. Earliest release of any major contender, a studio that hasn't really cared much about awards campaigning, an extremely unorthodox film for the Academy, and an extremely dense slate of contenders. Someone's getting left out, and Yeoh has a fair amount of cons in her column that I think a lot of people are overlooking. The good thing about her is that she is getting some profile out there, and the film's made sizable bank for what it is, and there is the growing momentum surrounding the "first Asian actress to get a Best Actress nod" narrative, but she could easily get Delroy'd. In terms of competitors we've already seen: Blanchett and Colman are very strong bets. You can't bet against either of them. SAG loves Davis and you have to expect she's always going to be in the conversation to get that perennially predicted Best Actress win they think she's due, so you can't count her out. Ana de Armas could conceivably Spencer it to a nomination with the right campaign. Then there's the unseen element of Robbie, Ackie, Deadwyler, and King. I would imagine Williams will go supporting but we still don't yet know how major she is and if they can reasonably category-fraud her if she's, say, got the most screentime and focus (even if it's a movie where the kid is the central character). Someone's getting shut out. And Yeoh is by no means safe. 2023 The Lindo comparison still isn't working for me at all. EEAAO has made a much bigger cultural impact than Da 5 Blood ever did, and Yeoh is seen as way more overdue than Lindo. EEAAO is A24's #1, whilst Netflix clearly had bigger priorities than the Spike.
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2022 13:34:36 GMT
I don't see Davis getting close to the mentions that Blanchett has gotten to actually win, and Blanchett is going to have a ton of critics awards you would figure - her momentum hasn't started and that's 100% RT, 91% Metacritic. It might be sad to see Davis lose to a white female getting her 3rd win again - when they apparently won't give Davis her BA actress...or so it seems anyway.....
I could see Yeoh missing but not right now I don't....I don't think she's like Lindo much tbh - Lindo was really hurt by the resolution of his character - among many other specific things....and crucially Lindo's film got almost no nods (1 for music) - and Yeoh's is a no shit genius player in multiple, bigger categories including BP ....like I said - she "could" miss but I can't really predict that in September....
|
|