Post by stephen on Apr 26, 2022 13:31:35 GMT
Now that we can finally shake off the dust of the most fun awards race of recent memory, let's take a look at the upcoming slate of Best Actress contenders. I've taken the time to go over what I think are the most promising candidates, weighed their pros and cons, and ranked them thus. So here's my top ten, with a couple of honorable mentions that I left off for one reason or another:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon. Following in much the same way as her colleagues Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone, Robbie’s been poised to finally get the trophy for quite a while—it’s just a matter of timing at this point. And here she’s playing arguably the baitiest role of her career (a silent movie legend based on Clara Bow), while also leaning into the mercurial wildness that Robbie’s made her bread and butter since her breakout. I’ve not read the script but people who have rave it as juicy as all hell, and we know it’s going to land at the perfect time for awards. It’s still very early days, but if we have to talk about the word “frontrunner,” Robbie has to be heading that conversation. Plus she has Canterbury Glass the same year, so this could very well be her “Winslet in ’08” moment.
2. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody. The McCarten factor has netted three Best Actor wins in the last decade, and the cursed screenwriter is setting his sights on the Best Actress race with the Whitney Houston biopic. Kasi Lemmons is a solid enough craftsman, and we all know the material is ripe for adaptation. Naomi Ackie has been on the rise across the sea and on TV lately, but this is sure to be a massive breakthrough for her on the big screen. Only question is whether she has the name recognition to cut through the sea of bigger names and previous nominees, but I think you can’t ignore that this performance has massive potential.
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till. Early rumblings on this performance are extremely high and, come on, the material is going to be potent no matter when you release it, but in the last decade especially, the socio-political themes of this story are starker than ever. Deadwyler has a lot of the same issues Ackie does in terms of being a relative unknown, but like Ackie, the role and the studio could come through for her in a big way. I put Ackie over here only because of the McCarten factor, but Deadwyler might have the more timely material.
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light. The newest Academy favourite (in more ways than one), Colman is always going to have buzz no matter what she does going forward, and her latest is a Sam Mendes film with Colin Firth. Searchlight’s a great campaigner. The only thing is that Colman herself doesn’t really do a whole lot of campaigning herself, but that didn’t stop her winning in 2018 and getting nominated in 2020 and ’21. Colman strikes me as an actress bound to win a second eventually, but will this be it? Time will tell. But I do think a nomination is very likely.
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King. Much like Colman, Viola Davis is an actress who gets awards talk for lifting a finger on-screen. And The Woman King is a passion project for her and I imagine she will be campaigning hard for it. I don’t yet know if I can see this being the project that gets her that second win (and the elusive Best Actress trophy a lot of people think she’s due for), but we all know SAG is going to rally to her side if no one else will.
6. Regina King, Shirley. A former Oscar winner playing the first black American congresswoman, in a film written and directed by the guy who won an Oscar for writing 12 Years a Slave. This has pedigree out the ying-yang, to quote George Costanza, and it has a pretty healthy ensemble backing its leading lady. To be honest, all of the non-Robbie top five and this were interchangeable, but I rated King sixth here because it most fits the bill of a “this had Oscar buzz” movie more than the others.
7. Michelle Williams, The Fablemans. We know Spielberg is on a roll with his actors lately (DDL, Rylance and DeBose all won Oscars in the last decade), and the man’s just missing a lead actress to complete the set. And Williams has been riding something of an overdue narrative for a while, and she’s playing a role very near and dear to Stevie’s heart. We know she’s a strong contender, but I am not sure if she’s going lead or supporting.
8. Cate Blanchett, TAR. The return of Todd Field, who netted multiple acting nods for his first two films. Blanchett’s beloved and she got that SAG bump last year with Nightmare Alley, so clearly the industry is still into her even if she goes into genre fare, and this is much more conventional. Period-piece where she plays a ground-breaking female conductor, with a very strong studio backing her. I would probably rate her higher if I knew more about the project.
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said. An extremely timely film about the investigation that broke the Weinstein scandal, I can see this being an All the President’s Men equivalent where it’s much more procedural and script-focused than performance-based, but Mulligan did come extremely close in 2020 to a win, so she might have some afterglow momentum. A prime release date and some solid studio support, and I can see her getting some steam.
10. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once. The early critical darling of the year, Yeoh has been extremely overdue for Oscar recognition for quite some time. But the early release, coupled with the gonzo genre conventions of the story and the fact that it’s A24 (who has seemed to throw in the towel with campaigning ever since Lady Bird whiffed on wins) makes me think this is going the “Toni Collette in Hereditary” route. I’d love it if she could get in, but I just don’t see it.
HM: I am not sure who the lead is in Sarah Polley’s Women Talking (is there one, or is it a pure ensemble?), and I think that film is definitely one we should be keeping an eye on. Additionally, I am not sure if Poor Things is coming out this year or not, but Emma Stone would absolutely be a possibility if we get confirmation on a release date.
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon. Following in much the same way as her colleagues Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone, Robbie’s been poised to finally get the trophy for quite a while—it’s just a matter of timing at this point. And here she’s playing arguably the baitiest role of her career (a silent movie legend based on Clara Bow), while also leaning into the mercurial wildness that Robbie’s made her bread and butter since her breakout. I’ve not read the script but people who have rave it as juicy as all hell, and we know it’s going to land at the perfect time for awards. It’s still very early days, but if we have to talk about the word “frontrunner,” Robbie has to be heading that conversation. Plus she has Canterbury Glass the same year, so this could very well be her “Winslet in ’08” moment.
2. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody. The McCarten factor has netted three Best Actor wins in the last decade, and the cursed screenwriter is setting his sights on the Best Actress race with the Whitney Houston biopic. Kasi Lemmons is a solid enough craftsman, and we all know the material is ripe for adaptation. Naomi Ackie has been on the rise across the sea and on TV lately, but this is sure to be a massive breakthrough for her on the big screen. Only question is whether she has the name recognition to cut through the sea of bigger names and previous nominees, but I think you can’t ignore that this performance has massive potential.
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till. Early rumblings on this performance are extremely high and, come on, the material is going to be potent no matter when you release it, but in the last decade especially, the socio-political themes of this story are starker than ever. Deadwyler has a lot of the same issues Ackie does in terms of being a relative unknown, but like Ackie, the role and the studio could come through for her in a big way. I put Ackie over here only because of the McCarten factor, but Deadwyler might have the more timely material.
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light. The newest Academy favourite (in more ways than one), Colman is always going to have buzz no matter what she does going forward, and her latest is a Sam Mendes film with Colin Firth. Searchlight’s a great campaigner. The only thing is that Colman herself doesn’t really do a whole lot of campaigning herself, but that didn’t stop her winning in 2018 and getting nominated in 2020 and ’21. Colman strikes me as an actress bound to win a second eventually, but will this be it? Time will tell. But I do think a nomination is very likely.
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King. Much like Colman, Viola Davis is an actress who gets awards talk for lifting a finger on-screen. And The Woman King is a passion project for her and I imagine she will be campaigning hard for it. I don’t yet know if I can see this being the project that gets her that second win (and the elusive Best Actress trophy a lot of people think she’s due for), but we all know SAG is going to rally to her side if no one else will.
6. Regina King, Shirley. A former Oscar winner playing the first black American congresswoman, in a film written and directed by the guy who won an Oscar for writing 12 Years a Slave. This has pedigree out the ying-yang, to quote George Costanza, and it has a pretty healthy ensemble backing its leading lady. To be honest, all of the non-Robbie top five and this were interchangeable, but I rated King sixth here because it most fits the bill of a “this had Oscar buzz” movie more than the others.
7. Michelle Williams, The Fablemans. We know Spielberg is on a roll with his actors lately (DDL, Rylance and DeBose all won Oscars in the last decade), and the man’s just missing a lead actress to complete the set. And Williams has been riding something of an overdue narrative for a while, and she’s playing a role very near and dear to Stevie’s heart. We know she’s a strong contender, but I am not sure if she’s going lead or supporting.
8. Cate Blanchett, TAR. The return of Todd Field, who netted multiple acting nods for his first two films. Blanchett’s beloved and she got that SAG bump last year with Nightmare Alley, so clearly the industry is still into her even if she goes into genre fare, and this is much more conventional. Period-piece where she plays a ground-breaking female conductor, with a very strong studio backing her. I would probably rate her higher if I knew more about the project.
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said. An extremely timely film about the investigation that broke the Weinstein scandal, I can see this being an All the President’s Men equivalent where it’s much more procedural and script-focused than performance-based, but Mulligan did come extremely close in 2020 to a win, so she might have some afterglow momentum. A prime release date and some solid studio support, and I can see her getting some steam.
10. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once. The early critical darling of the year, Yeoh has been extremely overdue for Oscar recognition for quite some time. But the early release, coupled with the gonzo genre conventions of the story and the fact that it’s A24 (who has seemed to throw in the towel with campaigning ever since Lady Bird whiffed on wins) makes me think this is going the “Toni Collette in Hereditary” route. I’d love it if she could get in, but I just don’t see it.
HM: I am not sure who the lead is in Sarah Polley’s Women Talking (is there one, or is it a pure ensemble?), and I think that film is definitely one we should be keeping an eye on. Additionally, I am not sure if Poor Things is coming out this year or not, but Emma Stone would absolutely be a possibility if we get confirmation on a release date.