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Post by stephen on Sept 23, 2022 13:56:50 GMT
Thoughts on the possibility of a nomination for Vicky Krieps in Corsage? Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience currently has her ranked seventh in his Best Actress predictions, saying: "Every year needs a subtitled Best Actress contender. Might Krieps be it for this well-regarded star turn? Oscar loves royalty porn and biopics. Any of that Phantom Thread momentum still around?"The year is already extremely packed with contenders, and as much as I want Vicky to get that Oscar nomination she was unduly snubbed for in 2017, I just don't see her getting the momentum this year.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 23, 2022 21:56:55 GMT
This is way too early, but I'll go:
Cate Blanchett - Tar Viola Davis - The Woman King Michelle Yeoh - EEAAO Danielle Deadwyler - Till Michelle Williams - The Fablemans
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2022 4:49:46 GMT
Blanchett Deadwyler Robbie Williams Yeoh
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 24, 2022 11:17:04 GMT
Colman is in no way a lock for a nod ......I know she's respected and stuff but I'm not sure this year she gets that automatic check off box...... Her movie is at 50% RT atm - and while that will go up - she's not going to get above Blanchett who is far in front, Davis who has the reviews and a commercial hit to get a nod, Yeoh for all the reasons discussed already - possibly Deadwyler who could upset Blanchett maybe - and sight unseen Robbie .....earlier when people were predicting Yeoh being snubbed - I think it's rather Colman who is in that shaky, begging to be knocked out 5th spot........ and I like Colman a lot - deserved all her nods, and heck I have a crush on the young Olivia Colman in Peep Show atm ......and while I have my doubts about Babylon - the 1st trailer sucked ino, whatever that "means" - but I see 4 people ahead of Colman and I'm not sure (at all) Chazelle isn't going to deliver 2 Oscar nods for his movie - Pitt and Robbie .....I doubt Mendes more with actors tbh..... Not saying she can't get in - of course she can - but I'mmina say it isnt going to be at Yeoh's expense at least (even with A24 running the campaign).....and I'm not sure she stands out over those other potential rivals .... Um yeah......now I've seen the The Woman King and ...............it is not that good actually - and neither is Davis - which sort of kills THAT pacinoyes theory ^ I guess Davis still gets in over Colman (Empire of Light is 47% RT atm) - she's fine - but it plays as utter bullshit - with some ok performances and impressive set pieces (the first). In a few weeks talk of this movie will drop I think - it actually SHOULD drop tbh Blanchett Deadwyler Robbie Yeoh
Williams atm / or Davis / or Colman or ..........you get the idea
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 24, 2022 12:25:34 GMT
This is way too early, but I'll go: Cate Blanchett - Tar Viola Davis - The Woman King Michelle Yeoh - EEAAO Danielle Deadwyler - Till Michelle Williams - The Fablemans
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2022 14:50:31 GMT
Heard a rumour that there's a chance Robbie goes Supporting.
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Post by stephen on Sept 24, 2022 14:55:19 GMT
Heard a rumour that there's a chance Robbie goes Supporting. Honestly, the second I was hearing that Blanchett buzz, I was wondering why the fuck Robbie wasn't considering a supporting run. She would've had to contend with Williams (at the time), but if anyone can beat Williams's narrative, Robbie (a meteorically rising star with two nominations under her belt and arguably one of the most in-demand ingenues right now) could. And now Williams is running lead? It's a no-brainer. Robbie goes supporting (as Babylon could be argued to be more of an ensemble) and clinches it.
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 24, 2022 15:40:56 GMT
Ackie, Blanchett, Robbie, Yeoh, Williams.
I'm tempted to also predict Davis as everyone else seems to be, but I'm sorta getting Widows vibes: critically-acclaimed studio genre film that Davis is the lead of, gets a lot of buzz, maybe picks up a precursor or two, but ultimately misses out at the finish line to more traditionally baity roles. Obviously, the difference is that The Woman King has been much more commercially successful than Widows. So, her chances are better here. Just not totally won over yet. Maybe if Robbie officially shifts to supporting.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2022 13:30:02 GMT
Cate Blanchett, Tár Olivia Colman, Empire of Light Danielle Deadwyler, Till Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alts. Viola Davis, The Woman King; Margot Robbie, Babylon.
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Post by ptacoenlover on Oct 1, 2022 22:48:11 GMT
Chalk it up to festival brain but Deadwyler is getting raves across the board and is having pundits put her in winning conversation. She was my alternate but now I’m gonna swap out Colman for her I think.
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Post by stephen on Oct 1, 2022 23:31:03 GMT
Chalk it up to festival brain but Deadwyler is getting raves across the board and is having pundits put her in winning conversation. She was my alternate but now I’m gonna swap out Colman for her I think. I do think they're prone to hyperbole any time a film premieres, but Deadwyler has the role and the raves. I do think her relative newcomer status works against her but I think she's looking very likely for a nomination. I would be more convinced of her win potential if the film could muscle in some nominations aside from her, and if she could snatch some of the critical momentum from the likes of Blanchett.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 1, 2022 23:59:45 GMT
Blanchett, Williams, Yeoh, Robbie, Deadwyler.
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Post by stephen on Oct 2, 2022 0:02:35 GMT
Blanchett, Williams, Yeoh, Robbie, Deadwyler. I sincerely doubt that Robbie stays lead if Williams does. They'll switch her ass to supporting immediately.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 2, 2022 8:17:22 GMT
The Deadwyler raves are nuts. These are winner raves. And we still haven't seen the likes of Ackie. Most competitive race this season !
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 2, 2022 8:29:15 GMT
I can see Deadwyler getting nominated, but since she'd likely be the film's sole nomination, I can't really picture a win... especially with how stacked this year is with other potential nominees in much stronger films overall.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 2, 2022 9:11:42 GMT
I can see Deadwyler getting nominated, but since she'd likely be the film's sole nomination, I can't really picture a win... especially with how stacked this year is with other potential nominees in much stronger films overall. Isn't it a bit early to say Till can only get 1 nomination with Actress? Who knows if it ends up a lower-tier BP contender (MGM is a big studio, do they can certainly put money behind it) just based on it being an easy to digest and "important "biopic with solid enough reviews. And even if (as I believe to be the case) it doesn't get near the BP race, it's stli a handsomely mounted period piece. Things like costume, production design, hair and make-up ect are always in play for films like Till. Jessica Chastain just won the last Best Actress Oscar with only one other below-the line nomination for her film (Hair and Make-Up) and a film with a 55% on Metacritic. It was arguably the weakest film in the actress line-up. So I don't think we can write of Deadwyler's chances of winning or of Till snagging at least a below-the-line nomination or two! Those raves for Deadwyler are too strong to discount and while it may not be the strongest film in this year's Best Actress race, it certainly seems like it'll be better recieved than The Eyes Of Tammy Faye.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 2, 2022 9:21:08 GMT
I can see Deadwyler getting nominated, but since she'd likely be the film's sole nomination, I can't really picture a win... especially with how stacked this year is with other potential nominees in much stronger films overall. Isn't it a bit early to say Till can only get 1 nomination with Actress? Who knows if it ends up a lower-tier BP contender (MGM is a big studio, do they can certainly put money behind it) just based on it being an easy to digest and "important "biopic with solid enough reviews. And even if (as I believe to be the case) it doesn't get near the BP race, it's stli a handsomely mounted period piece. Things like costume, production design, hair and make-up ect are always in play for films like Till. Jessica Chastain just won the last Best Actress Oscar with only one other below-the line nomination for her film (Hair and Make-Up) and a film with a 55% on Metacritic. It was arguably the weakest film. So I don't think we can write of Deadwyler's chances of winning or of Till snagging at least a below-the-line nomination or two! Those raves for Deadwyler are too strong to discount and while it may not be the strongest film in this year's Best Actress race, it certainly seems like it'll be better recieved than The Eyes Of Tammy Faye.Chastain had very different competition last year. None of the nominees in her category were in BP nominees, while this year we're looking at four potential actresses in BP nominees (assuming Robbie doesn't end up going supporting). Tar, EEAAO, Babylon, and The Fabelmans are all going to be much stronger films than Till.
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Post by flasuss on Oct 2, 2022 13:42:43 GMT
Isn't it a bit early to say Till can only get 1 nomination with Actress? Who knows if it ends up a lower-tier BP contender (MGM is a big studio, do they can certainly put money behind it) just based on it being an easy to digest and "important "biopic with solid enough reviews. And even if (as I believe to be the case) it doesn't get near the BP race, it's stli a handsomely mounted period piece. Things like costume, production design, hair and make-up ect are always in play for films like Till. Jessica Chastain just won the last Best Actress Oscar with only one other below-the line nomination for her film (Hair and Make-Up) and a film with a 55% on Metacritic. It was arguably the weakest film. So I don't think we can write of Deadwyler's chances of winning or of Till snagging at least a below-the-line nomination or two! Those raves for Deadwyler are too strong to discount and while it may not be the strongest film in this year's Best Actress race, it certainly seems like it'll be better recieved than The Eyes Of Tammy Faye.Chastain had very different competition last year. None of the nominees in her category were in BP nominees, while this year we're looking at four potential actresses in BP nominees (assuming Robbie doesn't end up going supporting). Tar, EEAAO, Babylon, and The Fabelmans are all going to be much stronger films than Till. Also, Chastain win was very much a career win in a year without a clear frontrunner. That's Michelle Williams' position this year, now in one of the frontrunners for BP.
Very different case of an unknown actress competing against much more well known ones in BP nominees.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 2, 2022 14:31:48 GMT
Said before Deadwyler "could" win - it's not "impossible" - and yeah race matters - and especially it's a factor in a role ABOUT race and racial history - hey remember when I said that exact same thing 2 years ago and some people called me a "racist"? Looking back on it, I was right about that and you all were a reactionary asshats - but then....I often am right .....and you could always DM me and apologize for your past sins - whattya say? Um..... The Academy would love to reward an actress besides Halle Bery with a BA Oscar as their 20 years of shame continues especially for this role which is one of the great heroic roles in American history........the problem is (apparently, haven't seen it) Blanchett - one of our all-time GOAT-level actresses - is (apparently) all-time great in a film likely to get a BP nod and several other nods even if it doesn't get BP....and that she apparently dominates in a way that is clear even beyond what wilcinema said in his rave review (and I think wil is the only one on MAR to have seen it) Also.......and I've seen these - the field opposite Blanchett is not stacked - that's a total misrepresentation - Davis movie is weak and she's just ok (and doesn't have the reviews), Women Talking is straight up awful BS, Empire of Light is meh ....that's not just "my opinion" it's that they don't stack up to the specific TWBB language of Blanchett's notices.... This is one of those years that "appears" to have broken exactly right for Cate the Great but you never know and if it's anybody who could upset it's Deadwyler.....but she ain't Chastain either and just on a transformative level that comparison doesn't much hold up....
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Post by stephen on Oct 2, 2022 15:28:33 GMT
I can see Deadwyler getting nominated, but since she'd likely be the film's sole nomination, I can't really picture a win... especially with how stacked this year is with other potential nominees in much stronger films overall. Isn't it a bit early to say Till can only get 1 nomination with Actress? Who knows if it ends up a lower-tier BP contender (MGM is a big studio, do they can certainly put money behind it) just based on it being an easy to digest and "important "biopic with solid enough reviews. And even if (as I believe to be the case) it doesn't get near the BP race, it's stli a handsomely mounted period piece. Things like costume, production design, hair and make-up ect are always in play for films like Till. Jessica Chastain just won the last Best Actress Oscar with only one other below-the line nomination for her film (Hair and Make-Up) and a film with a 55% on Metacritic. It was arguably the weakest film in the actress line-up. So I don't think we can write of Deadwyler's chances of winning or of Till snagging at least a below-the-line nomination or two! Those raves for Deadwyler are too strong to discount and while it may not be the strongest film in this year's Best Actress race, it certainly seems like it'll be better recieved than The Eyes Of Tammy Faye.MGM has only had one Best Picture nominee in the last three decades, and it was Licorice Pizza. They might have more money behind them now that Amazon bought them out, but that's still a hell of a dry spell for a studio. I think Deadwyler is a very strong top five contender for a nomination, maybe even top three. But literally every single Best Actress contender has had "they can win!" reviews at the initial bow. Blanchett, Colman, Yeoh, Davis . . . I'm sure Ackie and Robbie (if she goes lead) will follow suit as well. Deadwyler has the role and the raves, but she needs more than that against this field. She needs the film to do well outside of her. I don't think last year's race is the metric we should be looking at for comparison, because that race was an anomaly unto itself (no real consistent frontrunner in a very split race; Chastain just happened to have the broadest appeal and didn't lose ground at BAFTA to an actual contender). And while Best Actress typically doesn't have to line up with Best Picture the way, say, Best Actor does, Best Actress this year has a fair few contenders spoiling to nominations in films all but guaranteed to be above-the-line players.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 2, 2022 16:02:38 GMT
Yeah, the actual reviews/reactions to the film itself aren't a good sign for Danielle in a category this competitive. She's 4th or 5th depending on what category Robbie ends up in.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 2, 2022 22:07:07 GMT
Also.......and I've seen these - the field opposite Blanchett is not stacked - that's a total misrepresentation - Davis movie is weak and she's just ok (and doesn't have the reviews), Women Talking is straight up awful BS, Empire of Light is meh ....that's not just "my opinion" it's that they don't stack up to the specific TWBB language of Blanchett's notices.... When I said the field was stacked, I meant in terms of the number of potential nominees in strong films and other actresses’ winning potential relative to Deadwyler, not Blanchett, who indeed has undeniable raves that no one else has and will be tough to beat. If Blanchett weren’t in contention, you’d still have Yeoh, Williams, and Robbie (maybe) as contenders with stronger winning potential than Deadwyler imo. I don’t think Colman’s getting nominated, and Women Talking isn’t contending in this category.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 2, 2022 22:52:38 GMT
One of the reasons I think Deadwyler is (possibly) ahead of all of the non-Blanchett peeps - not 4th or 5th as was said earlier - is the way "Till" is being marketed - this featurette - in a cut down form - is used as a commercial which I saw several times today watching football (hungover, sigh) - and caused me to say "hmmmm":
At 1:40 the director says "there will be no physical violence against black people shown on screen .....we're going to begin and end in a place of joy" which seems preposterous ..........to me ........but I can see people responding to.....a lot
There are other things to respond to in Yeoh's movie besides her imo - and I am a bit of an oddball in this category - I've heard so much that Williams isn't the lead that I doubt people are going to reward her like she was a lead vs. an actress they historically like more than Williams anyway ...........and who inarguably is a lead.......still seems like a huge mistake to me sight unseen with this Williams thing.....at least Deadwyler has that "if you liked it, it's ALL because of her" aspect ..........but so much goes into this - box office, reviews, precursors........"Till" is 100% atm on RT off 12 reviews btw.....but I see her as 2nd tbh - the most jarring contrast to Blanchett and races are about contrast ........not that I think this is much of a race because I don't but if one shapes up I "buy" Deadwyler in that hypothetical 2nd spot.....I guess.......
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 3, 2022 2:02:33 GMT
There are other things to respond to in Yeoh's movie besides her imo - and I am a bit of an oddball in this category - I've heard so much that Williams isn't the lead that I doubt people are going to reward her like she was a lead vs. an actress they historically like more than Williams anyway ........... and who inarguably is a lead.......still seems like a huge mistake to me sight unseen with this Williams thing.....at least Deadwyler has that "if you liked it, it's ALL because of her" aspect ..........but so much goes into this - box office, reviews, precursors........"Till" is 100% atm on RT off 12 reviews btw.....but I see her as 2nd tbh - the most jarring contrast to Blanchett and races are about contrast ........not that I think this is much of a race because I don't but if one shapes up I "buy" Deadwyler in that hypothetical 2nd spot.....I guess....... In a different scenario, I might agree that the leading/supporting role ambiguity would put an actress at a disadvantage, but in this case I still think Williams is ahead of Deadwyler just based on the strength of her film alone – she’s in the current BP frontrunner on top of having excellent individual notices. In 2018, Colman managed to beat Close in a role that people thought would be campaigned in supporting initially because she was just in a much stronger film overall, and Close’s overdue narrative and unambiguous leading role weren’t enough to overcome that. And Close wasn’t even a newcomer like Deadwyler, and like Stephen said, that’s another thing working against her. If you want to say that race matters, it’d make more sense to argue for Yeoh as a challenger to Blanchett since her movie is arguably top 3 in the BP race.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 16:03:38 GMT
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