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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 24, 2021 21:47:13 GMT
It'll be funny if Denzel blocks Will for this. Will will have become a casualty of too casual an approach to cultivating a filmography (hence being universally liked but not universally respected on the highest level). I still have Smith as the frontrunner, but the reviews/reaction so far for Macbeth exceeds expectations. You know it's like Denzel would be his own personal Hilary Swank to Smith's Bening.......um.......sort of. Smith has a big problem here in that the historical importance of the role and the actor playing the role form a momentum of their own for Washington - and it's the kind of momentum that's hard to counter........Smith needs the boxes people expected him to check to actually GET checked - hit film, no controversy, lots of schmoozing, yadda yadda......I mean Washington could win BAFTA now.......like that could be the race right there.......though obviously that's a long way off and we're still in the "film festival glow" phase ......... |
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Post by futuretrunks on Sept 24, 2021 21:57:33 GMT
It'll be funny if Denzel blocks Will for this. Will will have become a casualty of too casual an approach to cultivating a filmography (hence being universally liked but not universally respected on the highest level). I still have Smith as the frontrunner, but the reviews/reaction so far for Macbeth exceeds expectations. You know it's like Denzel would be his own personal Hilary Swank to Smith's Bening.......um.......sort of. Smith has a big problem here in that the historical importance of the role and the actor playing the role form a momentum of their own for Washington - and it's the kind of momentum that's hard to counter........Smith needs the boxes people expected him to check to actually GET checked - hit film, no controversy, lots of schmoozing, yadda yadda......I mean Washington could win BAFTA now.......like that could be the race right there.......though obviously that's a long way off and we're still in the "film festival glow" phase ......... It's a different situation, but I feel like Bening isn't really an iconic actress, and that hurt her. Glenn Close will always have Fatal Attraction at the very least. Bening doesn't even have that. Her best hope was to have won early on in a Brie Larson-esque run. |
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Post by franklin on Sept 24, 2021 22:58:23 GMT
1. Will Smith (King Richard)
2. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up)
5. Clifton Collins Jr (Jockey)
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2021 23:25:18 GMT
1. Will Smith (King Richard) 2. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) 3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog) 4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up) 5. Clifton Collins Jr (Jockey)  |
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Post by franklin on Sept 24, 2021 23:58:11 GMT
I don't know, there's always a first nominee spot in this category, Dinklage's Telluride hype seems to be waning, and Collins Jr got career best raves for this, he could be supported by the critics groups around Nov-Dec.
But I know it's wishful thinking.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 25, 2021 0:26:58 GMT
I don't know, there's always a first nominee spot in this category, Dinklage's Telluride hype seems to be waning, and Collins Jr got career best raves for this, he could be supported by the critics groups around Nov-Dec. But I know it's wishful thinking. Stats/streaks are meant to be broken, I don't think we'll be seeing a first timer this year. Also, the critics are going to rally behind Cumberbatch/Washington/Phoenix instead. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 25, 2021 0:28:02 GMT
The new BAFTA rule is majorly going to help Washington here, and Stewart in Actress.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2021 16:10:06 GMT
World of Reel chimes in with this race - the last paragraph is an ominous warning to Will Smith - you mess up in ANY way - rude to a journalist, don't get a COVID shot (or whatever), don't kiss enough ass - you go from being #1 to #2....just like that buddy:
With “The Tragedy of Macbeth” having finally screened last night at NYFF, Denzel Washington officially entered the 2022 Oscar race.
I’ve already tackled the Best Picture and Best Actress categories, but the Actor category is one that’ll be utterly fascinating to follow in the coming months. As it stands, we have three STRONG contenders and a fourth and fifth slot open for the taking.
First things first: this does look like Will Smith’s Oscar to lose. He received the best reviews of his career at Telluride for “King Richard,” the narrative is irresistible, he is well-respected and he’s vaccinat … oh wait. That’s just a rumour for now, and I’m sure the PR team behind his campaign will figure it out, but Smith has been at it now, post-Fresh Prince, for almost 25 years and he’s due.
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon Cmon)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Possibilities
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket)
Matt Damon (Stillwater)
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Guilty)
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Long Shots
Timothee Chalamet (Dune)
Adam Driver (Annette)
Michael Keaton (Worth)
Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God)
Nicolas Cage (Pig)
Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey)
Still Not Screened
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Daniel Craig (No Time to Die)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Adam Driver (House of Gucci)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!)
Tom Hanks (Finch)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Back to Denzel Washington, the raves he’s getting for ‘Macbeth’ are very hard to ignore. The 66-year-old actor has been Oscar-nominated 8 times, having won 2 statuettes. He hasn’t slowed down either, some of the best work of his career has occurred in these last 10 or so years. Even if voters find ‘Macbeth’ to be impenetrable , and there will be many, it’ll still be too hard to resist voting Denzel.
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Post by quetee on Sept 26, 2021 16:20:06 GMT
I still don't buy this Will Smith hype.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2021 21:36:38 GMT
I still don't buy this Will Smith hype. Well....maybe ...........maybe not..........but the hype starts for Big Willie right now I guess with this stuff and it's early already......apparently they are using the Williams sisters to promote the film in this hardcore fellatio piece (He IS my Dad! Um....okaaaaaaaaaaaaay) - so Fran champions Denzel.............. Richard Williams' daughters champion Smith.......  Like I said above - "if" he's number 1 (that's a big "if") he has to campaign 100% perfectly - have his COVID shots, kiss a lot of ass, with no star trips, and be as charming as everybody always says he is..........if he's number 2 or 3 (depending how Cumby's movie does after NYFF this Friday) ........well good luck going from 2 to 1 ..... He needs to play it perfectly .......and if he really is #1 ..........he can blow it in a minute .......... morton - hey buddy I'm gonna be off this board for long stretches starting in about 6 weeks - but I'll check in - and I really want to see those great breakdowns you do on this stuff ...... We're talking winners on Sept 27th   |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 28, 2021 4:19:00 GMT
Even with my bias towards him (he's the GOAT for me. Yeah, over Brando, Pacino, DeNiro, Nicholson or any of your faves. Cry all you want bitches!!!! ), I can still be objective about possible scenarios. And right now I can see Denzel potentially running away with this. Like very easily. He's getting career best level reviews....for doing Shakespeare. One of the seminal characters in Shakespeare. As an American. It's quite a feat. Some reviews are saying he's reinvigorated the character of Macbeth with his interpretation. I don't know if he'll do a similar near sweep with critics, but this feels like the perfect storm for a potential coronation type win, like DDL got with Lincoln. Washington's reputation is as high as DDL's at that point (probably higher). He's arguably got the best reviews of the main contenders so far (lots of raves like Cumberbatch, but hardly any dings like him). Like quetee said, I'm not completely sold on Smith as the winner. He's a guy people like, but I've never felt there has ever been a huge urge in the industry to give him an Oscar. Like with Tom Cruise, who is probably his nearest counterpart. Is he going to get it for a schmaltzy The Blind Side/Remember The Titans style sports biopic, or does he need to do something less predictably "Will Smith" for the Academy to really feel they have to give it to him ? Giving Denzel a third and rubber stamping him as our greatest living actor feels like a much juicier industry narrative than anything Smith has going (other than being a big movie star who has never won an Oscar). But as always....we shall see. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 28, 2021 4:22:02 GMT
I said it in the Macbeth thread and I'll say it here, happy to admit that I was wrong about this one (just this one  ). Could end up being a very interesting thee horse race, excited to see how it develops. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 28, 2021 4:54:12 GMT
I still think it’s Will Smith. Despite raves, few pundits who saw Macbeth at NYFF are talking Washington up as a frontrunner and I assume there’s a reason for that. There’s even doubt about the film being a BP nominee.. it’s actually lower on GD in predictions for BP since its NYFF premiere. www.goldderby.com/odds/expert-odds/oscars-nominations-2022-predictions/I’d guess that the film is probably going to be on the esoteric/artsy side and alienate audiences to some extent. Will Smith is still comfortably leading on GD, being predicted to win by 3x the amount of experts. He, his film and the role just tick more winning boxes imo. |
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Post by quetee on Sept 28, 2021 5:01:30 GMT
Even with my bias towards him (he's the GOAT for me. Yeah, over Brando, Pacino, DeNiro, Nicholson or any of your faves. Cry all you want bitches!!!! ), I can still be objective about possible scenarios. And right now I can see Denzel potentially running away with this. Like very easily. He's getting career best level reviews....for doing Shakespeare. One of the seminal characters in Shakespeare. As an American. It's quite a feat. Some reviews are saying he's reinvigorated the character of Macbeth with his interpretation. I don't know if he'll do a similar near sweep with critics, but this feels like the perfect storm for a potential coronation type win, like DDL got with Lincoln. Washington's reputation is as high as DDL's at that point (probably higher). He's arguably got the best reviews of the main contenders so far (lots of raves like Cumberbatch, but hardly any dings like him). Like quetee said, I'm not completely sold on Smith as the winner. He's a guy people like, but I've never felt there has ever been a huge urge in the industry to give him an Oscar. Like with Tom Cruise, who is probably his nearest counterpart. Is he going to get it for a schmaltzy The Blind Side/Remember The Titans style sports biopic, or does he need to do something less predictably "Will Smith" for the Academy to really feel they have to give it to him ? Giving Denzel a third and rubber stamping him as our greatest living actor feels like a much juicier industry narrative than anything Smith has going (other than being a big movie star who has never won an Oscar). But as always....we shall see. He has one lead and a supporting, so another lead is not out of the question. I'm sorry but the Will Smith hype, I'm just not feeling it. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 28, 2021 5:03:32 GMT
Yeah, and few people thought Washington would get nominated for Roman J Israel Esq. Most "experts" got that dead wrong (I got roundly mocked by many people that season for saying he'd get the nomination based on the quality of the performance and how much I knew the Academy adored him, and made most alleged experts look silly when he did) One of the dumbest things people keep repeatedly doing, year after year is underestimating just how much the Academy loves Denzel Washington. To quote 50 Cent, they love him like a fat kid loves cake I think they've been looking for an opportunity to give him a third Oscar for awhile now, and Smith does not even have a quarter of his respect and admiration among Academy voters. Not saying it will happen, but denying the possibility that Denzel is the kind of actor who could easily run away with this race feels silly. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 28, 2021 5:05:03 GMT
Even with my bias towards him (he's the GOAT for me. Yeah, over Brando, Pacino, DeNiro, Nicholson or any of your faves. Cry all you want bitches!!!! ), I can still be objective about possible scenarios. And right now I can see Denzel potentially running away with this. Like very easily. He's getting career best level reviews....for doing Shakespeare. One of the seminal characters in Shakespeare. As an American. It's quite a feat. Some reviews are saying he's reinvigorated the character of Macbeth with his interpretation. I don't know if he'll do a similar near sweep with critics, but this feels like the perfect storm for a potential coronation type win, like DDL got with Lincoln. Washington's reputation is as high as DDL's at that point (probably higher). He's arguably got the best reviews of the main contenders so far (lots of raves like Cumberbatch, but hardly any dings like him). Like quetee said, I'm not completely sold on Smith as the winner. He's a guy people like, but I've never felt there has ever been a huge urge in the industry to give him an Oscar. Like with Tom Cruise, who is probably his nearest counterpart. Is he going to get it for a schmaltzy The Blind Side/Remember The Titans style sports biopic, or does he need to do something less predictably "Will Smith" for the Academy to really feel they have to give it to him ? Giving Denzel a third and rubber stamping him as our greatest living actor feels like a much juicier industry narrative than anything Smith has going (other than being a big movie star who has never won an Oscar). But as always....we shall see. He has one lead and a supporting, so another lead is not out of the question. I'm sorry but the Will Smith hype, I'm just not feeling it. You've been saying this a lot, any reasoning? |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 28, 2021 5:36:09 GMT
Yeah, and few people thought Washington would get nominated for Roman J Israel Esq. Most "experts" got that dead wrong (I got roundly mocked by many people that season for saying he'd get the nomination based on the quality of the performance and how much I knew the Academy adored him, and made most alleged experts look silly when he did) One of the dumbest things people keep repeatedly doing, year after year is underestimating just how much the Academy loves Denzel Washington. To quote 50 Cent, they love him like a fat kid loves cake I think they've been looking for an opportunity to give him a third Oscar for awhile now, and Smith does not even have a quarter of his respect and admiration among Academy voters. Not saying it will happen, but denying the possibility that Denzel is the kind of actor who could easily run away with this race feels silly. This is the same argument you made with his Fences run. No one doubts that Washington is loved, but if they’ve been looking for an opportunity as you say, I feel like it probably would’ve happened then. And that’s not to say that they’d have any hesitation if the stars aligned, but I don’t know that I buy into this idea that there’s that much urgency to do it. There’s no actor that the Academy adores more than Streep, and they made her wait forever, despite clear opportunities to award her before they eventually did. If she could lose to Sandra Bullock of all people in a panned film, then Denzel Washington can certainly lose two a 2x nominee that’s shaping up to be one of the biggest crowdpleasers of the year. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 28, 2021 5:58:26 GMT
Yeah, and few people thought Washington would get nominated for Roman J Israel Esq. Most "experts" got that dead wrong (I got roundly mocked by many people that season for saying he'd get the nomination based on the quality of the performance and how much I knew the Academy adored him, and made most alleged experts look silly when he did) One of the dumbest things people keep repeatedly doing, year after year is underestimating just how much the Academy loves Denzel Washington. To quote 50 Cent, they love him like a fat kid loves cake I think they've been looking for an opportunity to give him a third Oscar for awhile now, and Smith does not even have a quarter of his respect and admiration among Academy voters. Not saying it will happen, but denying the possibility that Denzel is the kind of actor who could easily run away with this race feels silly. This is the same argument you made with his Fences run. No one doubts that Washington is loved, but if they’ve been looking for an opportunity as you say, I feel like it probably would’ve happened then. And that’s not to say that they’d have any hesitation if the stars aligned, but I don’t know that I buy into this idea that there’s that much urgency to do it. There’s no actor that the Academy adores more than Streep, and they made her wait forever, despite clear opportunities to award her before they eventually did. If she could lose to Sandra Bullock of all people in a panned film, then Denzel Washington can certainly lose two a 2x nominee that’s shaping up to be one of the biggest crowdpleasers of the year. is not going to be Affleck though. Denzel's biggest hurdle with Fences was that he went up against a guy that completely swept the critics awards more than anyone since DDL in There Will Be Blood (and thanks to the campaigning of Ben and Matt) the Golden Globes. That insane critics sweep gave Affleck a momentum that transferred into the industry awards (helped of course by his brother and Damon using their movie star clout to campaign him). Denzel "only" managed to win SAG, yet was still the GoldDerby betting favorite to win the Oscar on the day of the ceremony. That is how tight a race Denzel made it. It's possible he lost by just a few votes He got one major award vs 50 critics awards and all the other industry awards that Affleck got, and people still thought Denzel would win. It wasn't just me. Affleck just had way too much momentum in terms of what he kept winning, and I do not see Smith replicating that. Globes won't be a factor this year, which probably would have helped Smith, since King Richard looks like the kind of thing they might flip for. Denzel is actually more likely to be a critics awards favorite this time around, considering it's a quite arty film from a beloved auteur. Smith will probably rely mostly industry awards....is King Richard necessarily a BAFTA type of thing? American sports biopic? I wouldn't think so. Washington is probably more likely to pick up his first BAFTA for being raved by British critics in a Shakespeare production, or else it may go to Cumberbatch. Smith actually has a harder path to victory than he might in other years, especially with the Globes out of commission. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 28, 2021 6:12:09 GMT
^ I mostly agree with what you said there but a performance as internalized as Affleck’s almost never wins Best Actor, especially after losing SAG. He was not undeniable by any means despite the critic push.
And I think the Streep/Bullock race could work as precedent for a Washington loss here. That happened after Streep won SAG for Doubt too, so she was already similarly building up goodwill for her third.
Will Smith will surely win SAG, it’s exactly the type of thing that SAG falls for and Washington just won four years ago. If Globes aren’t a thing, he’s probably going to have rely on BAFTA to turn the tide and yeah, good luck with that.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 28, 2021 11:09:01 GMT
Last night Will Smith was on Entertainment Tonight talking about HIS extramarital affairs (yeah, good move there - that's very endearing ) and the GQ article has his quote on his desire at one time "for wanting "a harem of girlfriends" (good move #2, get that female vote!) He doesn't know how to play the role of being the annoited #1 ......he's like a kid......Washington is a grown ass man ...for the campaign he'll portray himself as acting Zen master - the wise old Yoda dude - he will be this: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt" ........ Will has to knock off that clown shit - you're 53 dude - act like it wtf.......stop talking like that dumbass ......you want to beat Denzel Washington - look at how Casey Affleck did it - shut your mouth, win at least one precursor (SAG most likely, Globe if they have it whatever) and hope Zel doesn't win the other 1 (BAFTA)......and even then you aren't safe........  |
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Post by franklin on Sept 28, 2021 11:36:05 GMT
Smith is doing this GQ profile, he's doing a Netflix comedy one hour special, he's publishing a memoir, and plus he's also doing this National Geographic documentary series on Disney +, all coming out later this year.
He'll be everywhere in these upcoming months, he's campaigning 200% and rightly so.
I don't see anyone else as the frontrunner in this category right now.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 28, 2021 13:22:45 GMT
Smith is doing this GQ profile, he's doing a Netflix comedy one hour special, he's publishing a memoir, and plus he's also doing this National Geographic documentary series on Disney +, all coming out later this year. He'll be everywhere in these upcoming months, he's campaigning 200% and rightly so. I don't see anyone else as the frontrunner in this category right now. As pacinoyes pointed out, his campaigning isn't making things better for him... |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 28, 2021 13:44:22 GMT
Even with my bias towards him (he's the GOAT for me. Yeah, over Brando, Pacino, DeNiro, Nicholson or any of your faves. Cry all you want bitches!!!! ), I can still be objective about possible scenarios. And right now I can see Denzel potentially running away with this. Like very easily. He's getting career best level reviews....for doing Shakespeare. One of the seminal characters in Shakespeare. As an American. It's quite a feat. Some reviews are saying he's reinvigorated the character of Macbeth with his interpretation. I don't know if he'll do a similar near sweep with critics, but this feels like the perfect storm for a potential coronation type win, like DDL got with Lincoln. Washington's reputation is as high as DDL's at that point (probably higher). He's arguably got the best reviews of the main contenders so far (lots of raves like Cumberbatch, but hardly any dings like him). Like quetee said, I'm not completely sold on Smith as the winner. He's a guy people like, but I've never felt there has ever been a huge urge in the industry to give him an Oscar. Like with Tom Cruise, who is probably his nearest counterpart. Is he going to get it for a schmaltzy The Blind Side/Remember The Titans style sports biopic, or does he need to do something less predictably "Will Smith" for the Academy to really feel they have to give it to him ? Giving Denzel a third and rubber stamping him as our greatest living actor feels like a much juicier industry narrative than anything Smith has going (other than being a big movie star who has never won an Oscar). But as always....we shall see. Why would a 3rd Oscar win be “rubber stamping Denzel as the greatest living actor”? It doesn’t elevate him above DDL |
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Post by franklin on Sept 28, 2021 13:55:41 GMT
Yeah, even if he would win a third one for Macbeth, DDL would still be considered the living GOAT.
I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back in his late 60s or even early 70s to make one last final film with Scorsese or PTA just to prove that.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 28, 2021 14:06:44 GMT
Even with my bias towards him (he's the GOAT for me. Yeah, over Brando, Pacino, DeNiro, Nicholson or any of your faves. Cry all you want bitches!!!! ), I can still be objective about possible scenarios. And right now I can see Denzel potentially running away with this. Like very easily. He's getting career best level reviews....for doing Shakespeare. One of the seminal characters in Shakespeare. As an American. It's quite a feat. Some reviews are saying he's reinvigorated the character of Macbeth with his interpretation. I don't know if he'll do a similar near sweep with critics, but this feels like the perfect storm for a potential coronation type win, like DDL got with Lincoln. Washington's reputation is as high as DDL's at that point (probably higher). He's arguably got the best reviews of the main contenders so far (lots of raves like Cumberbatch, but hardly any dings like him). Like quetee said, I'm not completely sold on Smith as the winner. He's a guy people like, but I've never felt there has ever been a huge urge in the industry to give him an Oscar. Like with Tom Cruise, who is probably his nearest counterpart. Is he going to get it for a schmaltzy The Blind Side/Remember The Titans style sports biopic, or does he need to do something less predictably "Will Smith" for the Academy to really feel they have to give it to him ? Giving Denzel a third and rubber stamping him as our greatest living actor feels like a much juicier industry narrative than anything Smith has going (other than being a big movie star who has never won an Oscar). But as always....we shall see. Why would a 3rd Oscar win be “rubber stamping Denzel as the greatest living actor”? It doesn’t elevate him above DDL You are taking me a bit literally. 3 just puts Denzel in a very exclusive club. And if you already think of him as the Greatest Actor Alive, it's a cherry on top to be in that exclusive club and some people may want to give him that cherry as a "rubber stamp". It doesn't elevate him above DDL. I think he is already above DDL regardless of Oscar count, as I'm sure many others do. But these are little things that may or may not swing voters. It really isn't that deep. |
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). Could end up being a very interesting thee horse race, excited to see how it develops.
