Best Actor predictions (Oscars 2022)

Sadly the film was too small/under-seen/under-campaigned, and came out too early.

Then I’m the owner of the entire train.

Stranger things have happened, but I would be pretty surprised. If there is a newbie it'll probably just be Dinklage, but I don't think we're getting one this year anyway tbh.

I have Dinklage in atm for the reasons I talked about - this role resonates (Oscar winning & Oscar nodded role in the past), everyone leaves the movie talking about him first - not the costumes, music or sets - and his movie plays well with crowds AND ends well / leaves on a good note apparently (a big plus) ........oh and it's different too - he sings, it's a romance.......

But he's 4th imo right now behind Smith, I'mCumbyDammit, DiCap........and there are 5 guys  looking to boot him out at least too - Cooper, Washington, Driver, Phoenix (but A24 is burying this pic so far), and Garfield who I think is a sleeper.....and yeah that's potentially 3 Netflix guys so maybe not

Collins would be behind all of them to even get to Dinklage imo - unless a really shrewd campaign is run for him - I'm sure he's great but Dinklage just checks all the boxes - if not to actually get in ..........well enough to be 4th ..........as of September 20th anyway  ........

I still have no idea if Dornan goes Lead or Supporting, so these are my predictions if they put him in Lead.

1. Will Smith (King Richard)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up)
4. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
5. Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

maybe he read Nicki Minaj's tweet about her brother's cousin's friend's swollen balls

I've talked about how for when competed for the "win" '92,  '01 and '16 his 2 losses were the best things that could have happened to him for his legacy if /when he wins his 3rd (maybe this year?).

If he had won in '92 he'd be seen as a kind of monster who cost Pacino another Oscar - when everyone had Pac winning - and in '16 he'd have won just off one single big precursor (SAG) when everyone had Affleck winning........and a lot of people think he won in '01 solely for the BAFTA incident (that's arguable and less clear than the other two). ................There would be some kind of a "taint" - in some way - on 3 wins (out 4)

People who argue him getting "ripped off" in those years don't understand how controversial against him those wins would have been perceived .......but now to win in '21 for ToM would be an astonishing flex of actor swagger and power - just the nomination is a major flex as I've said many times........

Now this maybe doesn't seem that way atm because well he doesn't have 3 - but when he gets  it - 3 for ToM or something else  it plays out kinda perfectly actually.  

Well, I Am Legend has apparently become an anti-vaccine movie:
www.theguardian.com/film/2021/aug/11/i-am-legend-anti-vaccine-movies

Smith, however, dismissed all of this as nonsense at the very start of the pandemic:
www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/will-smith-coronavirus-i-am-legend-zombie-movie-a9412791.html

Also, to my knowledge, he has never been linked to the vaccines-cause-autism crowd (Jim Carrey, Robert De Niro, Alicia Silverstone, Bill Maher etc.).

That stuff happens every year with someone, Denzel in the running or not.

Well to be fair..........I did say "kinda" perfectly  

He can't change the color of his skin or the role he played (?)..........so I think everyone can see the key difference there:

The "controversy" argument you raised is just based on him - and race which is disgusting, yes  - but the other 3 years "if" he had won '92 (L) /'01 (W) /'16 (L) - were based on the people who were up against him (ie a once in a lifetime movie legend, a guy who melted down / threw a phone  , and an "assumed" sexual abuser).................the fact that he lost the key precursors and would have been an underdog winner in every case.........by comparison.......

I agree in that I think we've got a solid three: Washington, Smith, and Cumberbatch, and I'd rank them that way as well just by what feels right. I feel like the narrative of a third win for Washington has been in the air for a while and Fences showed that if he'd been in a fractured race, he could've pulled it out. And the critics are seemingly going hard for his performance here. I've said before that I feel like Washington would need the critics in a way he's never really had to before to take his third win, the way Day-Lewis and McDormand did. And I know that we're at the reactionary phase after a screening, but the hype is powerfully strong right now. It just depends on whether A24 puts their backs into it -- but it's a Coen/McDormand/Washington combo, and really, that should be right up their alley even with the reported weirdness.

Smith feels like he's comfortable and will probably have a lot of the steakeaters behind him: a well-liked actor in a comeback narrative with a potentially popular film. Would not count him out even if Washington is a critics' favorite. Smith is well-networked himself in the industry and he doesn't have two Oscars to his name.

Cumberbatch feels like a solid third-placer right now. His performance will likely garner a lot of critics' mentions but I feel like Campion is the one who will likely be reaping the real lion's share of individual notices. He could surge forward if the film is well-received and becomes a strong favorite for the top prize, but I just feel like Washington and Smith have more pros in their columns right now than he does.

The other two spots, I think they're going to be in flux for much of the season. Cooper should theoretically be safe in a late-breaker from a Best Picture/Director winner and Cooper is obviously beloved by the Academy and he's got the PTA this year as well. I feel like the Dinklage buzz will go down quick but he might get a random SAG nomination that people think is going to materialize into an Oscar nod, but then he misses it in favor of someone with a stronger film. Jamie Dornan could wind up going supporting. Clifton Collins, Jr. feels like he could be the Demian Bichir of the year and I would keep an eye on him. No idea whether Ben Foster, that perennial Oscar snub, is even going to bow this year or if he's even got a distributor. Phoenix, I feel like Joker gave them the out to reward him and now they don't have to court a guy who clearly doesn't give a shit about them (and they got to have their cake and eat it with him). Garfield is apparently a thing but I have no idea what's going on with that.