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Post by JangoB on Sept 11, 2021 12:14:42 GMT
But why go against the grain when you know it ain't gonna happen (i.e. Cage, the Cumber-snub)? I was trying to not be an asshole  I wasn't either! I'm just genuinely wondering what's the point of predicting stuff that's 100% not happening. I know that seeing the same stuff predicted is a bit boring but, well, that's predictions for ya! The name of the game is being right and not being creative  |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 11, 2021 12:52:21 GMT
I was trying to not be an asshole I wasn't either! I'm just genuinely wondering what's the point of predicting stuff that's 100% not happening. I know that seeing the same stuff predicted is a bit boring but, well, that's predictions for ya! The name of the game is being right and not being creative Oh I feel the exact same way, I just sometimes worry that I come off too combative when it comes to predictions. It's tough being right all the time |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 11, 2021 16:29:24 GMT
I have so many questions, but I guess I can somewhat appreciate going against the grain. But why go against the grain when you know it ain't gonna happen (i.e. Cage, the Cumber-snub)? People often confuse what they expect to happen with what they want to. |
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 11, 2021 18:02:01 GMT
 Let me at least predict Cage in one post, you haters! I picked my four of the consensus bunch — I say this every year but anyone can look at the hottest five and pick those, I say boring. I can’t have one curveball? And what a curve - Neon’s only lead actor to push, the most raved perf of the year so far (??) from not only critics, but colleagues/ industry people! and a “comeback” (even tho it ain’t) which the Academy likes . I know, I’m a madman… how dare I not vote for Will Smith in the yet-released feel good sports drama…
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Post by stephen on Sept 11, 2021 18:03:50 GMT
Let me at least predict Cage in one post, you haters! I picked my four of the consensus bunch — I say this every year but anyone can look at the hottest five and pick those, I say boring. I can’t have one curveball? And what a curve - Neon’s only lead actor to push, the most raved perf of the year so far (??) from not only critics, but colleagues/ industry people! and a “comeback” (even tho it ain’t) which the Academy likes . I know, I’m a madman… how dare I not vote for Will Smith in the yet-released feel good sports drama… I would never disabuse you or anyone for supporting Cage, and his individual reviews are extremely strong, but Pig released way too early for me to think he's got a shot at anything higher than a Spirit Award. But I think he could easily win that if he's nominated. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 11, 2021 18:11:50 GMT
Let me at least predict Cage in one post, you haters! I picked my four of the consensus bunch — I say this every year but anyone can look at the hottest five and pick those, I say boring. I can’t have one curveball? And what a curve - Neon’s only lead actor to push, the most raved perf of the year so far (??) from not only critics, but colleagues/ industry people! and a “comeback” (even tho it ain’t) which the Academy likes . I know, I’m a madman… how dare I not vote for Will Smith in the yet-released feel good sports drama… ^  |
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Post by quetee on Sept 11, 2021 18:16:44 GMT
Let me at least predict Cage in one post, you haters! I picked my four of the consensus bunch — I say this every year but anyone can look at the hottest five and pick those, I say boring. I can’t have one curveball? And what a curve - Neon’s only lead actor to push, the most raved perf of the year so far (??) from not only critics, but colleagues/ industry people! and a “comeback” (even tho it ain’t) which the Academy likes . I know, I’m a madman… how dare I not vote for Will Smith in the yet-released feel good sports drama… It's September, all bets are off. The Academy has pretty much told us that they could care less about the consensus pick. Every year it happens someone looks like a frontrunner out of the gate, racks up a bunch of awards and then boom... nothing. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 0:07:29 GMT
Let me at least predict Cage in one post, you haters! I picked my four of the consensus bunch — I say this every year but anyone can look at the hottest five and pick those, I say boring. I can’t have one curveball? And what a curve - Neon’s only lead actor to push, the most raved perf of the year so far (??) from not only critics, but colleagues/ industry people! and a “comeback” (even tho it ain’t) which the Academy likes . I know, I’m a madman… how dare I not vote for Will Smith in the yet-released feel good sports drama… Or Cumberbatch |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 0:10:27 GMT
Let me at least predict Cage in one post, you haters! I picked my four of the consensus bunch — I say this every year but anyone can look at the hottest five and pick those, I say boring. I can’t have one curveball? And what a curve - Neon’s only lead actor to push, the most raved perf of the year so far (??) from not only critics, but colleagues/ industry people! and a “comeback” (even tho it ain’t) which the Academy likes . I know, I’m a madman… how dare I not vote for Will Smith in the yet-released feel good sports drama… It's September, all bets are off. The Academy has pretty much told us that they could care less about the consensus pick. Every year it happens someone looks like a frontrunner out of the gate, racks up a bunch of awards and then boom... nothing.Who was that last year?? And please don't say Lindo, he was a frontrunner for like a month, and won nothing. |
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Post by franklin on Sept 12, 2021 3:34:22 GMT
Isaac definitely needed the Volpi Cup win to keep the momentum and it seems like Dinklage's buzz after Telluride is quickly waning already.
So to me for now it's like this:
1.Smith
2.Cumberbatch
3.DiCaprio
4.Washington
5.Dornan
6 Phoenix
7.Cooper
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 3:41:29 GMT
I don't think Isaac was ever in contention anyway.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 12, 2021 8:01:46 GMT
If you look at the reviews of I'mCumbyDammit right now on RT - you are starting to see more and more him getting called those buzzwords - "towering", "monumental", "earth-shattering" - the only guy on the list of possible nominees who can get those adjectives I think is potentially Washington in Macbeth..... The steamroller is just starting to pick up for BC - I think people who called him "miscast" maybe didn't understand the text (haven't seen it but off the book he is not miscast) and people listened because they didn't see the movie and those people using the word had Twitter accounts ...........so um.........  Can't see how atm, he isn't #2 behind Smith...... www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_power_of_the_dog |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 8:05:25 GMT
Yep, couldn't agree more. The raves are far and away overshadowing any negativity, and I think it's still a comfortable Top 2 with Cumberbatch and Smith.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 8:11:44 GMT
Actually this review from Robbie Collin caught my eye. Seems in his opinion at least, that any potential concern of Cumberbatch initially being miscast, actually works in his favour.  |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 12, 2021 8:44:08 GMT
Ehhh....Cumberbatch is playing an unlikeable character. He has raves, but he also has a couple of pans/he's miscast dings in the mix to weaken him (and it will be definitely be used against him as the season wears on, even if you think it is just a small minority of dissenters). He didn't win the Volpi Cup (which you'd hope/expect if his boosters want to try and sell him as being undeniable, which he clearly isn't), which I think would have done a lot more to erase any negativity/doubts. While a previous nominee, he's not an Academy favorite nor seen as overdue for an Oscar.
He's in the mix at this stage obviously, but I can see him slipping down pretty easily as things unfold. I just don't see him winning an Oscar for playing an unlikeable character where there have already been doubts/questions about his even being right for the role, in spite of raves as well.
There is a reason Cumberbatch didn't move in his odds on GoldDerby after his film was seen, while Smith went up. His stock didn't really change. If Cumberbatch was as strong as some want him to be, he'd at least have overtaken the unseen Washington on GoldDerby, which he couldn't manage. A nomination may well happen and things could change, as anything is possible, but Cumberbatch doesn't feel like a winner right now to me.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 12, 2021 9:19:52 GMT
Actually this review from Robbie Collin caught my eye. Seems in his opinion at least, that any potential concern of Cumberbatch initially being miscast, actually works in his favour. ^ I'm guessing because I haven't seen the movie but part of this character is that actually he is clearly " miscast in his own life" - like he should appear uncomfortable in the first place like he doesn't fit into his life ....... that's a characteristic of Phil Burbank (and no one else) |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 12:11:34 GMT
Ehhh.... Cumberbatch is playing an unlikeable character. He has raves, but he also has a couple of pans/he's miscast dings in the mix to weaken him (and it will be definitely be used against him as the season wears on, even if you think it is just a small minority of dissenters). He didn't win the Volpi Cup (which you'd hope/expect if his boosters want to try and sell him as being undeniable, which he clearly isn't), which I think would have done a lot more to erase any negativity/doubts. While a previous nominee, he's not an Academy favorite nor seen as overdue for an Oscar. He's in the mix at this stage obviously, but I can see him slipping down pretty easily as things unfold. I just don't see him winning an Oscar for playing an unlikeable character where there have already been doubts/questions about his even being right for the role, in spite of raves as well. There is a reason Cumberbatch didn't move in his odds on GoldDerby after his film was seen, while Smith went up. His stock didn't really change. If Cumberbatch was as strong as some want him to be, he'd at least have overtaken the unseen Washington on GoldDerby, which he couldn't manage. A nomination may well happen and things could change, as anything is possible, but Cumberbatch doesn't feel like a winner right now to me. First rule of Oscar predicting: put very little stock in GoldDerby. Year in and year out both AW, and even this place, have consistently better predictions. They have House of Gucci at #2 for BP, Hudson still in the Top 5, Plemons and Dowd at #1 in the Supporting categories etc. That's all you need to know really. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 12, 2021 12:16:15 GMT
Bradley Cooper
Benedict Cumberbatch
Peter Dinklage
Will Smith *
Denzel Washington
Leonardo DiCaprio
Jamie Dornan (Supporting?)
Adam Driver
Jude Hill
Joaquin Phoenix
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Post by fiosnasiob on Sept 12, 2021 13:08:07 GMT
I'm only totally confident in Will Smith right now, he needed the movie, he has it, really has it, to the point where (from what I've read) it could maybe end Top 5 in BP. He's the frontrunner and I can totally see him winning ala Sandra Bullock (plus he's a 2x nominee). Next in line is certainly Cumberbatch, he has the performance and the movie and he's a Brit (the Brit contender of the season ?) and at this point, no one should underrates the British block. BTW I just looked at the IMDB page of the movie to see what countries produced it and I saw that it has a rating of 6,7 for 410 votes, it maybe means nothing (could be just a bunch of haters downvoting it) but it surprised me a little bit, I expected more. Dinklage seems to have the reviews for his performance, would be our first time nominee, beloved TV actor, and in 2022 it would look great to have a midget male actor among the nominees. Denzel is Denzel (but he is not Streep !), but the Venise's episode (which I can hardly understand) was like a cold shower to me, now I'm unsure about everything regarding Macbeth...and life. Bradley Cooper over Leo for now... I wasn't sure at all about Leo (until I saw the movie then I knew he was in) for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and I'm not sure now but he seems to have a lot for him. I know nothing about the movie but Clifton Collins Jr. looks oscar worthy on that picture of Jockey.  |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 12, 2021 16:38:49 GMT
Cumberbatch is amazing in The Power of The Dog but he needs to sweep the critics awards to win, and I'm not sure he'll be able to do that with Campion likely to sweep the critics in Best Director. Plus, I could also see a few top groups (like LAFCA, for example) push Kodi Smit-McPhee in Supporting.
It's a very tricky race for Cumberbatch.
My money is on Will Smith. He's a massive movie star, it seems like he has the movie, and he's the kind of guy who can survive a BAFTA snub.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Sept 12, 2021 17:21:29 GMT
Poor Will, I doubt Jada even has his back in this matchup. Haha. This could be a real Entanglement.
(if you know, you know ) I don't know but I would love to know  |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 12, 2021 21:32:16 GMT
This could be a real Entanglement.
(if you know, you know ) I don't know but I would love to know toyboy lover August Alsina wrote a song about their affair called Entanglements, after Jada described the affair as an "Entanglement " to kind of dismiss it like it was no big deal Poor Will was kind of cucked by the whole thing. She does that a lot with him. She also talks about Tupac like he was the love of her life, as opposed to her actual husband! |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Sept 12, 2021 22:13:19 GMT
I don't know but I would love to know toyboy lover August Alsina wrote a song about their affair called Entanglements, after Jada described the affair as an "Entanglement " to kind of dismiss it like it was no big deal Poor Will was kind of cucked by the whole thing. She does that a lot with him. She also talks about Tupac like he was the love of her life, as opposed to her actual husband! Damn..smh |
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Post by rhodoraonline on Sept 14, 2021 1:15:23 GMT
Thanks for DISENTANGLING that for me pupdurcs |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 14, 2021 1:36:08 GMT
I don’t care about who wins I just want Ben Foster to finally be nominated.
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