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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 3:25:35 GMT
Interesting that people are sleeping on Denzel's narrative, and it's a pretty massive one. It's the same one Streep had with The Iron Lady and DDL had with Lincoln (though critics also went to bat for him).
That narrative being that he is one of our greatest and most consistent actors in the history of the profession, and deserves to have a third Oscar by his name. I believe the Academy has been very ready to give him a 3rd since he got denied for Fences (which led to a follow-up nomination for Roman J Israel Esq, despite critics seriously dinging the movie itself). Any decent campaign team will fully milk the shit out of that (especially with this whole recent Greatest Actor Of The Century annointment). I think Macbeth just needs to be decent for his narrative to take hold, and no one in the field is close enough to being as respected as him (and certainly not the guy who may be his closest challenger).
Right now, as the GoldDerby odds have it, I think it's likely to be a Smith vs Denzel race.
Who I got in my predictions right now:
1 Denzel Washington 2 Will Smith 3 Benedict Cumberbatch 4 Jamie Dornan 5 Peter Dinklage
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Post by quetee on Sept 10, 2021 3:57:48 GMT
Interesting that people are sleeping on Denzel's narrative, and it's a pretty massive one. It's the same one Streep had with The Iron Lady and DDL had with Lincoln (though critics also went to bat for him) . That narrative being that he is one of our greatest and most consistent actors in the history of the profession, and deserves to have a third Oscar by his name. I believe the Academy has been very ready to give him a 3rd since he got denied for Fences (which led to a follow-up nomination for Roman J Israel Esq, despite critics seriously dinging the movie itself) . Any decent campaign team will fully milk the shit out of that (especially with this whole recent Greatest Actor Of The Century annointment). I think Macbeth just needs to be decent for his narrative to take hold, and no one in the field is close enough to being as respected as him (and certainly not the guy who may be his closest challenger). Right now, as the GoldDerby odds have it, I think it's likely to be a Smith vs Denzel race. Who I got in my predictions right now: 1 Denzel Washington 2 Will Smith 3 Benedict Cumberbatch 4 Jamie Dornan 5 Peter Dinklage I need to see more trailer footage because I'm not feeling Will right now.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 4:06:09 GMT
Interesting that people are sleeping on Denzel's narrative, and it's a pretty massive one. It's the same one Streep had with The Iron Lady and DDL had with Lincoln (though critics also went to bat for him) . That narrative being that he is one of our greatest and most consistent actors in the history of the profession, and deserves to have a third Oscar by his name. I believe the Academy has been very ready to give him a 3rd since he got denied for Fences (which led to a follow-up nomination for Roman J Israel Esq, despite critics seriously dinging the movie itself) . Any decent campaign team will fully milk the shit out of that (especially with this whole recent Greatest Actor Of The Century annointment). I think Macbeth just needs to be decent for his narrative to take hold, and no one in the field is close enough to being as respected as him (and certainly not the guy who may be his closest challenger). Right now, as the GoldDerby odds have it, I think it's likely to be a Smith vs Denzel race. Who I got in my predictions right now: 1 Denzel Washington 2 Will Smith 3 Benedict Cumberbatch 4 Jamie Dornan 5 Peter Dinklage I need to see more trailer footage because I'm not feeling Will right now. It's Will Smith....you know what you are going to get. It'll be a very solidly acted, feel-good thing along the lines of Pursuit Of Happyness or the less successful Concussion ....none of the reactions I read to his performance had me thinking he was breaking any new ground, so I suspect he'll be as beatable as he was in his other nominated roles, but we'll see.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2021 4:12:12 GMT
I see where you're coming from, but I don't think Smith will be facing anyone as titanic/undeniable as Hopkins. Maybe, but certainly Smith won't have anything remotely like Boseman's appeal and narrative either. Fair point. I think right now we're in a situation where we could see Smith take SAG and be the populist choice, whilst Cumberbatch takes BAFTA and is the critics favourite. Could make for a very exciting race.
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Post by quetee on Sept 10, 2021 4:16:12 GMT
I need to see more trailer footage because I'm not feeling Will right now. It's Will Smith....you know what you are going to get. It'll be a very solidly acted, feel-good thing along the lines of Pursuit Of Happyness or the less successful Concussion ....none of the reactions I read to his performance had me thinking he was breaking any new ground, so I suspect he'll be as beatable as he was in his other nominated roles, but we'll see. Yeah, I'm not seeing what everyone else is seeing... at least for right now.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2021 4:18:12 GMT
Whilst he does have decent momentum (and once again, I am actually predicting a nom), Washington most likely wouldn't have gotten nominated for Roman J. if James Franco wasn't a massive creep. I don't think the urge to give him a 3rd is anywhere near as strong as it was for Streep, and stuff like that NYT article won't even be a blip on voters radars.
I think Washington really needs Macbeth to be an overall strong contender, because King Richard, Don't Look Up, The Power of the Dog and Nightmare Alley most likely all will be. Sometimes all you need is the stronger film.
1. Smith 2. Cumberbatch 3. Cooper 4. Washington 5. DiCaprio
6. Dinklage 7. Phoenix
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 4:35:33 GMT
I'm not really feeling Cumberbatch (especially with all the early "miscast" dings) despite adding him to my predictions , but I'm struggling whom to put over him at the moment, as The Power Of The Dog feels like something critics will really try and push in every area. DiCaprio would normally be a slam-dunk choice, but the more I see of Don't Look Up, the less I'm convinced it'll be a huge awards contender, despite that cast. The whole thing looks pretty lightweight. Maybe Joaquin Phoenix gets in there with C'mon C'mon.
I dropped Cooper, and I have no idea why, because he should probably be in third. Brain freeze . I'll add him again later. I feel others will probably overtake Cumberbatch as the race becomes clearer. In my mind, Belfast looks like it may become the big challenger from the British/BAFTA bloc, and I see Jamie Dornan as someone who might challenge for the BAFTA win, even over Cumberbatch, who did not gain momentum with early reviews.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2021 6:06:52 GMT
I'm not really feeling Cumberbatch (especially with all the early "miscast" dings) despite adding him to my predictions , but I'm struggling whom to put over him at the moment, as The Power Of The Dog feels like something critics will really try and push in every area. DiCaprio would normally be a slam-dunk choice, but the more I see of Don't Look Up, the less I'm convinced it'll be a huge awards contender, despite that cast. The whole thing looks pretty lightweight. Maybe Joaquin Phoenix gets in there with C'mon C'mon.
I dropped Cooper, and I have no idea why, because he should probably be in third. Brain freeze . I'll add him again later. I feel others will probably overtake Cumberbatch as the race becomes clearer. In my mind, Belfast looks like it may become the big challenger from the British/BAFTA bloc, and I see Jamie Dornan as someone who might challenge for the BAFTA win, even over Cumberbatch, who did not gain momentum with early reviews. I don't think a few people thinking Cumberbatch is miscast is going to amount to anything (a point which I feel you're conflating just a bit, it really was only a few people). He's still gotten the best notices in the category so far, and his film has 96% on RT and 90 on MC, even basics like Anne Thompson love it. I can see where you're coming from with Don't Look Up, but I just don't think we can underestimate the Academy's love for McKay, at least not yet. Dornan is an interesting case because we don't know which category he'll be in yet, but even if he does end up in Lead, I'd be truly shocked if he ended up ahead of Cumberbatch at BAFTA or anywhere really.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2021 10:32:22 GMT
1. Smith 2. Cumby-patches 3. DiCap 4. Dinklage
5. Washington 6. Cooper 7. Baby Cooper 1 / Driver 8. Baby Cooper 2 / Garfield 9. Phoenix 10. A bunch of other guys all who are waiting for a narrative to form.....The first 3 are locked to me because they've been seen by normal people with pulses.... Don't Look Up not as much but the limited buzz seems logical and non-contradictory Dinklage I've covered - It's been seen, everybody loves him in this ........it's never "how many critics "liked" it - it's did it get enough of the "right reactions" to build a campaign narrative?" ......I'll go back to what I said yesterday - this role has won an Oscar, it got a performance in French nominated for BA on top of that and it ends in a way that makes the audience feel grrrrrrrrrrrrrrreat .........by a guy who is the thing everybody agrees on. Washington - I can't picture not being good (at least) but I can picture people raving the cinematography or the approach and the look of the move first and Shakespeare bias (it's real, bitches) or saying it just didn't work for them holding him down - I mean it sounds great to me but I'm a Shakespeare-nerd....... it also sounds very pretentious and it is a short version of the play too - just 105 minutes....lots of question marks.... Cooper overtakes Washington if any of those downsides come true but Cooper could still overtake Dinklage too - he's the highest upside - the role is that great - I'm not even talking to people who haven't read the book and have just seen the 1947 movie - you're all just dead illiterates to me Baby Cooper 1/Driver - I think is a HoG lead - that trailer was just a TV ad cast list is not something to assess that movie by - he's a double nominee possibility who is likely to get none though. Watch him however....... Baby Cooper 2/Garfield - is a double threat too.........who is less likely to get a nod than Driver is ...... Phoenix will be fncked by A24........A24 has 4 movies this year with no release date iirc? ........... they're a joke for this sort of industry type positioning thing .....they will ride the Washington train not the Phoenix one ..... If Phoenix gets nodded it would be a total flex - he won't campaign, A24 will fumble the ball multiple times before the voting deadline too .......
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 10, 2021 11:14:03 GMT
I'm not really feeling Cumberbatch (especially with all the early "miscast" dings) despite adding him to my predictions , but I'm struggling whom to put over him at the moment, as The Power Of The Dog feels like something critics will really try and push in every area. DiCaprio would normally be a slam-dunk choice, but the more I see of Don't Look Up, the less I'm convinced it'll be a huge awards contender, despite that cast. The whole thing looks pretty lightweight. Maybe Joaquin Phoenix gets in there with C'mon C'mon.
I dropped Cooper, and I have no idea why, because he should probably be in third. Brain freeze . I'll add him again later. I feel others will probably overtake Cumberbatch as the race becomes clearer. In my mind, Belfast looks like it may become the big challenger from the British/BAFTA bloc, and I see Jamie Dornan as someone who might challenge for the BAFTA win, even over Cumberbatch, who did not gain momentum with early reviews. I don't think a few people thinking Cumberbatch is miscast is going to amount to anything (a point which I feel you're conflating just a bit, it really was only a few people). He's still gotten the best notices in the category so far, and his film has 96% on RT and 90 on MC, even basics like Anne Thompson love it. I can see where you're coming from with Don't Look Up, but I just don't think we can underestimate the Academy's love for McKay, at least not yet. Dornan is an interesting case because we don't know which category he'll be in yet, but even if he does end up in Lead, I'd be truly shocked if he ended up ahead of Cumberbatch at BAFTA or anywhere really. Yes, I didn’t really see Dornan having the level of raves Cumberbatch did. It seemed to me that Balfe and Hill got more praise. I could see Dornan getting a Best Supporting Actor nomination if he’s placed there, and either actors rally around him instead of Hinds or possibly they both get in because the category feels so weak now. I don’t see him making Best Actor at all though because I don’t feel he has the role compared to the top 7 or 8 since I’ve read the only true lead is Hill. Hill won’t get nominated either because of his age. I agree about Don’t Look Up, but so far every review that has got to see it early praised it. I feel like I’m going to hate it already just because it feels too on the nose and too much like Vice for me which I also wanted to like/love as I want to with Don’t Look Up. It’s possible DiCaprio misses, but I think DLU will be at least a top 5 film and will likely get a SAG Ensemble nomination, and as you said the Oscars love McKay right now, so I don’t see that coming to an end yet just based on reliable early word.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2021 11:50:01 GMT
I agree about Don’t Look Up, but so far every review that has got to see it early praised it. I feel like I’m going to hate it already just because it feels too on the nose and too much like Vice for me which I also wanted to like/love as I want to with Don’t Look Up. It’s possible DiCaprio misses, but I think DLU will be at least a top 5 film and will likely get a SAG Ensemble nomination, and as you said the Oscars love McKay right now, so I don’t see that coming to an end yet just based on reliable early word. Yes, to argue against DiCap for a nod here takes a bit of willful denial tbh - that would involve betting against the guy the Academy loves the most, who is the biggest star in the world, in a practically guaranteed hit movie, in a film very likely to get the most above the line nominations too, coming off the worst watched Oscars ever where they're going to want star power........ In addition to that it's unique in how it's played and maybe most importantly it's "relevant" or at least timely - everything else is set in a different era or suggestive of the past...... It feels like the definition of a performance that seems like it can't "win" but at the same time "can't miss" for a nod.....
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 10, 2021 12:35:44 GMT
Interesting that people are sleeping on Denzel's narrative, and it's a pretty massive one. It's the same one Streep had with The Iron Lady and DDL had with Lincoln (though critics also went to bat for him) . That narrative being that he is one of our greatest and most consistent actors in the history of the profession, and deserves to have a third Oscar by his name. I believe the Academy has been very ready to give him a 3rd since he got denied for Fences (which led to a follow-up nomination for Roman J Israel Esq, despite critics seriously dinging the movie itself) . Any decent campaign team will fully milk the shit out of that (especially with this whole recent Greatest Actor Of The Century annointment). I think Macbeth just needs to be decent for his narrative to take hold, and no one in the field is close enough to being as respected as him (and certainly not the guy who may be his closest challenger). Right now, as the GoldDerby odds have it, I think it's likely to be a Smith vs Denzel race. Who I got in my predictions right now: 1 Denzel Washington 2 Will Smith 3 Benedict Cumberbatch 4 Jamie Dornan 5 Peter Dinklage DDL was not a narrative based win. His film managed twelve Oscar nominations and made just under 200 million domestic. He dominated critics as well.. Needing a third Oscar wasn’t even something that the campaign pushed, it was obvious that he was winning fairly early on and few would lose under those circumstances. Streep’s was, but that was after thirty years and through fourteen nominations. It took that long and a peak Weinstein for that narrative to take shape and pan out. I’m not really sensing similar sentiment with Washington atm, and I also suspect that the movie will be more experimental and artsy than a major awards thing, but we’ll see. As for Will Smith, King Richard is all but assured a BP nom at this point, so with that alone he’s already better positioned than he’s been in the past. Those were filler noms through and through, whereas he’s considered the frontrunner here with many pundits already confidently says it’s his to lose. This definitely feels different. I think the role is kind of undeniable, it just feels like something that wins, and the films hits that sweet spot of being crowd pleasing but with enough depth and complexity in the writing that it’s embraced by critics as well.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 12:56:27 GMT
Interesting that people are sleeping on Denzel's narrative, and it's a pretty massive one. It's the same one Streep had with The Iron Lady and DDL had with Lincoln (though critics also went to bat for him) . That narrative being that he is one of our greatest and most consistent actors in the history of the profession, and deserves to have a third Oscar by his name. I believe the Academy has been very ready to give him a 3rd since he got denied for Fences (which led to a follow-up nomination for Roman J Israel Esq, despite critics seriously dinging the movie itself) . Any decent campaign team will fully milk the shit out of that (especially with this whole recent Greatest Actor Of The Century annointment). I think Macbeth just needs to be decent for his narrative to take hold, and no one in the field is close enough to being as respected as him (and certainly not the guy who may be his closest challenger). Right now, as the GoldDerby odds have it, I think it's likely to be a Smith vs Denzel race. Who I got in my predictions right now: 1 Denzel Washington 2 Will Smith 3 Benedict Cumberbatch 4 Jamie Dornan 5 Peter Dinklage DDL was not a narrative based win. His film managed twelve Oscar nominations and made just under 200 million domestic. He dominated critics as well.. Needing a third Oscar wasn’t even something that the campaign pushed, it was obvious that he was winning fairly early on and few would lose under those circumstances. Streep’s was, but that was after thirty years and through fourteen nominations. It took that long and a peak Weinstein for that narrative to take shape and pan out. I’m not really sensing similar sentiment with Washington atm, and I also suspect that the movie will be more experimental and artsy than a major awards thing, but we’ll see. As for Will Smith, King Richard is all but assured a BP nom at this point, so with that alone he’s already better positioned than he’s been in the past. Those were filler noms through and through, whereas he’s considered the frontrunner here with many pundits already confidently says it’s his to lose. This definitely feels different. I think the role is kind of undeniable, it just feels like something that wins, and the films hits that sweet spot of being crowd pleasing but with enough depth and complexity in the writing that it’s embraced by critics as well. DDL fully was a narrative win, helped by Joaquin Phoenix imploding his campaign for The Master by basically calling the Oscars a crock of shit and saying he didn't want one (he backtracked, but it was too late). I remember that season clearly. Right out of the Lincoln premiere at the New York Film Festival, reactions to DDL were strong, but not as strong as expected. Tommy Lee Jones was actually getting a lot of "he's the MVP" reactions. That carefully timed Time Magazine Cover declaring DDL The World's Greatest Actor was an absolute fucking masterstroke in campaign terms, and I knew the race was pretty much over after that. DDL's campaign was that he was the world's greatest actor, and if anyone should have 3 Oscars, it should be this dude. Yes his performance got great reviews ( but no greater than Phoenix or Washington in Flight) the film was successful, made money, Yadda Yadda, but his campaign was absolutely built on the foundation about being the "world's greatest actor" who should have 3 Oscars. It was pretty much a coronation.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 10, 2021 13:00:14 GMT
DDL was not a narrative based win. His film managed twelve Oscar nominations and made just under 200 million domestic. He dominated critics as well.. Needing a third Oscar wasn’t even something that the campaign pushed, it was obvious that he was winning fairly early on and few would lose under those circumstances. Streep’s was, but that was after thirty years and through fourteen nominations. It took that long and a peak Weinstein for that narrative to take shape and pan out. I’m not really sensing similar sentiment with Washington atm, and I also suspect that the movie will be more experimental and artsy than a major awards thing, but we’ll see. As for Will Smith, King Richard is all but assured a BP nom at this point, so with that alone he’s already better positioned than he’s been in the past. Those were filler noms through and through, whereas he’s considered the frontrunner here with many pundits already confidently says it’s his to lose. This definitely feels different. I think the role is kind of undeniable, it just feels like something that wins, and the films hits that sweet spot of being crowd pleasing but with enough depth and complexity in the writing that it’s embraced by critics as well. DDL fully was a narrative win, helped by Joaquin Phoenix imploding his campaign for The Master by basically calling the Oscars a crock of shit and saying he didn't want one (he backtracked, bit it was too late). I remember that season clearly. Right out of the Lincoln premiere at the New York Film Festival, reactions to DDL were strong, but not as strong as expected. Tommy Lee Jones was actually getting a lot of "he's the MVP" reactions. That carefully timed Time Magazine Cover declaring DDL The World's Greatest Actor was an absolute fucking masterstroke in campaign terms, and I knew the race was pretty much over after that. DDL's campaign was that he was the world's greatest actor, and if anyone should have 3 Oscars, it should be this dude. Yes his performance got great reviews ( but no greater than Phoenix or Washington in Flight) the film was successful, made money, Yadda Yadda, but his campaign was absolutely built on the foundation about being the "world's greatest actors" who should have 3 Oscars. I'd say DDL's win was all but assured after it was announced he'd be playing Lincoln in a Spielberg biopic. Phoenix was never a threat because nobody was a threat.
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Post by stephen on Sept 10, 2021 13:05:53 GMT
Streep’s was, but that was after thirty years and through fourteen nominations. It took that long and a peak Weinstein for that narrative to take shape and pan out. I’m not really sensing similar sentiment with Washington atm, and I also suspect that the movie will be more experimental and artsy than a major awards thing, but we’ll see. What's interesting is that Washington's second win kind of mirrors Streep's third in that there was that growing sense of discontentment that Denzel hadn't won a Best Actor Oscar, to the point that you would think he'd never won gold with how people in the industry were talking about it. I do think there is a growing sentiment for Washington to win #3, and I think 2016 shows that at least SAG was ready to make it happen (though to be fair, it was their first time to actually recognize Washington, so you could also argue his win there was partially them correcting that while also acknowledging that maybe they didn't feel comfortable as a body rewarding Affleck at that time). But I think that Washington is really going to need the critics on his side for this one, because to win that fabled third trophy nowadays, you either have to have the critics (DDL, McDormand) or the most vigorous campaigner in the business on your side (Streep). It's doable, and I think he's still safe for the nomination unless something disastrous happens, but I wonder if they draw it out a bit longer before he joins the three-timers club. Yeah, Smith's looking really good right now. I still wouldn't say undeniable -- the year is looking mightily stacked and there are actors with equally plausible narratives and strong (or potentially so) films in contention. Cumberbatch's miscast tags feel like they're going to be drowned out ultimately by the raves he's got and I feel that film's going to be a critics' darling. Washington, as discussed above, could very well be a favorite for critics as well if they decide to stoke that fire for #3. Dinklage is getting good ink. Cooper's got a banner year by the looks and the man's winless after eight nominations (admittedly in multiple categories, but still). Phoenix could still get some afterglow love, but honestly, I'm not predicting it at this stage -- I think he's done for a while. I don't feel good about either of Garfield's turns as contenders, either. But Smith is already in a better position than he was in the other two years he was nominated, and I'd feel very confident in him if he could get a co-star in alongside him.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 13:06:27 GMT
DDL fully was a narrative win, helped by Joaquin Phoenix imploding his campaign for The Master by basically calling the Oscars a crock of shit and saying he didn't want one (he backtracked, bit it was too late). I remember that season clearly. Right out of the Lincoln premiere at the New York Film Festival, reactions to DDL were strong, but not as strong as expected. Tommy Lee Jones was actually getting a lot of "he's the MVP" reactions. That carefully timed Time Magazine Cover declaring DDL The World's Greatest Actor was an absolute fucking masterstroke in campaign terms, and I knew the race was pretty much over after that. DDL's campaign was that he was the world's greatest actor, and if anyone should have 3 Oscars, it should be this dude. Yes his performance got great reviews ( but no greater than Phoenix or Washington in Flight) the film was successful, made money, Yadda Yadda, but his campaign was absolutely built on the foundation about being the "world's greatest actors" who should have 3 Oscars. I'd say DDL's win was all but assured after it was announced he'd be playing Lincoln in a Spielberg biopic. Phoenix was never a threat because nobody was a threat. Nobody had ever won playing a US President before. Other actors have played Lincoln (including legends like Henry Fonda) and not even been nominated. It was a baity role and a baity project, but he was not assured of a win. The "World's Greatest Actor "narrative built during the campaign assured the win. And Phoenix should have been a huge threat to win if his campaign wasn't such a shambles. Critics were calling his work in The Master as good as anything Marlon Brando did in his prime and he couldn't even get a SAG nomination because he was acting like a petulant child all season and turning people off him.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2021 13:09:19 GMT
DDL fully was a narrative win, helped by Joaquin Phoenix imploding his campaign for The Master by basically calling the Oscars a crock of shit and saying he didn't want one (he backtracked, bit it was too late). I remember that season clearly. Right out of the Lincoln premiere at the New York Film Festival, reactions to DDL were strong, but not as strong as expected. Tommy Lee Jones was actually getting a lot of "he's the MVP" reactions. That carefully timed Time Magazine Cover declaring DDL The World's Greatest Actor was an absolute fucking masterstroke in campaign terms, and I knew the race was pretty much over after that. DDL's campaign was that he was the world's greatest actor, and if anyone should have 3 Oscars, it should be this dude. Yes his performance got great reviews ( but no greater than Phoenix or Washington in Flight) the film was successful, made money, Yadda Yadda, but his campaign was absolutely built on the foundation about being the "world's greatest actors" who should have 3 Oscars. I'd say DDL's win was all but assured after it was announced he'd be playing Lincoln in a Spielberg biopic. Phoenix was never a threat because nobody was a threat.^ Pretty much...........I'd go even further - though we'll never know - the guys who I'd guess were (a distant) 2nd and 3rd that year were Jackman and Cooper because they were the opposite in performance type and provided a clearer contrast and they had BP nominees on top of it. The only world where Phoenix and Washington (love them both that year) were 2nd and 3rd ...........is the world of......... message boards........
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Post by JangoB on Sept 10, 2021 13:19:56 GMT
I'd say DDL's win was all but assured after it was announced he'd be playing Lincoln in a Spielberg biopic. Phoenix was never a threat because nobody was a threat. Nobody had ever won playing a US President before. Other actors have played Lincoln (including legends like Henry Fonda) and not even been nominated. It was a baity role and a baity project, but he was not assured of a win. The "World's Greatest Actor "narrative built during the campaign assured the win. And Phoenix should have been a huge threat to win if his campaign wasn't such a shambles. Critics were calling his work in The Master as good as anything Marlon Brando did in his prime and he couldn't even get a SAG nomination because he was acting like a petulant child all season and turning people off him. I dunno, I remember the casting being announced and everybody going 'Welp, here goes the Oscar'. Other presidential performances (in projects that were way less high profile) may not have won before but I doubt that any AMPAS member would remember that and go 'Oh, guess I'm not voting for DDL either'. The mere combo of Spielberg, Lincoln and DDL was enough. And yeah, Spielberg's movies have never won acting Oscars before that, but from the beginning this was rather clearly the film that was gonna break that mold. Phoenix wouldn't have been a threat because the movie was too alienating for AMPAS members which its lack of support aside from the acting branch clearly shows.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 10, 2021 13:24:56 GMT
DDL was not a narrative based win. His film managed twelve Oscar nominations and made just under 200 million domestic. He dominated critics as well.. Needing a third Oscar wasn’t even something that the campaign pushed, it was obvious that he was winning fairly early on and few would lose under those circumstances. Streep’s was, but that was after thirty years and through fourteen nominations. It took that long and a peak Weinstein for that narrative to take shape and pan out. I’m not really sensing similar sentiment with Washington atm, and I also suspect that the movie will be more experimental and artsy than a major awards thing, but we’ll see. As for Will Smith, King Richard is all but assured a BP nom at this point, so with that alone he’s already better positioned than he’s been in the past. Those were filler noms through and through, whereas he’s considered the frontrunner here with many pundits already confidently says it’s his to lose. This definitely feels different. I think the role is kind of undeniable, it just feels like something that wins, and the films hits that sweet spot of being crowd pleasing but with enough depth and complexity in the writing that it’s embraced by critics as well. DDL fully was a narrative win, helped by Joaquin Phoenix imploding his campaign for The Master by basically calling the Oscars a crock of shit and saying he didn't want one (he backtracked, but it was too late). I remember that season clearly. Right out of the Lincoln premiere at the New York Film Festival, reactions to DDL were strong, but not as strong as expected. Tommy Lee Jones was actually getting a lot of "he's the MVP" reactions. That carefully timed Time Magazine Cover declaring DDL The World's Greatest Actor was an absolute fucking masterstroke in campaign terms, and I knew the race was pretty much over after that. DDL's campaign was that he was the world's greatest actor, and if anyone should have 3 Oscars, it should be this dude. Yes his performance got great reviews ( but no greater than Phoenix or Washington in Flight) the film was successful, made money, Yadda Yadda, but his campaign was absolutely built on the foundation about being the "world's greatest actor" who should have 3 Oscars. It was pretty much a coronation. Sorry, I don’t remember that being a talking in the campaign at all and I’d like to think that I follow award races pretty closely. They didn’t have to push much because it was obvious early on that he was winning. In terms of things that can make someone a frontrunner (reviews, acclaim, critic awards, strong accessible film, ect) he and his film fired of all cylinders. It was a completely different scenario to someone like Streep, who actually had to rely on narrative more because her film was panned and managed no other major nominations.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 13:31:46 GMT
DDL fully was a narrative win, helped by Joaquin Phoenix imploding his campaign for The Master by basically calling the Oscars a crock of shit and saying he didn't want one (he backtracked, but it was too late). I remember that season clearly. Right out of the Lincoln premiere at the New York Film Festival, reactions to DDL were strong, but not as strong as expected. Tommy Lee Jones was actually getting a lot of "he's the MVP" reactions. That carefully timed Time Magazine Cover declaring DDL The World's Greatest Actor was an absolute fucking masterstroke in campaign terms, and I knew the race was pretty much over after that. DDL's campaign was that he was the world's greatest actor, and if anyone should have 3 Oscars, it should be this dude. Yes his performance got great reviews ( but no greater than Phoenix or Washington in Flight) the film was successful, made money, Yadda Yadda, but his campaign was absolutely built on the foundation about being the "world's greatest actor" who should have 3 Oscars. It was pretty much a coronation. Sorry, I don’t remember that being a talking in the campaign at all and I’d like to think that I follow award races pretty closely. They didn’t have to push much because it was obvious early on that he was winning. In terms of things that can make someone a frontrunner (reviews, acclaim, critic awards, strong accessible film, ect) he and his film fired of all cylinders. It was a completely different scenario to someone like Streep, who actually had to rely on narrative more because her film was panned and managed no other major nominations. Everyone has different perceptions. especially for things dating back nearly 10 years ago. That is how I clearly remember that race playing out. If you remember it differently, then I respect that is your perception, but will have to disagree with it. It's not something worth arguing over.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 13:41:24 GMT
Nobody had ever won playing a US President before. Other actors have played Lincoln (including legends like Henry Fonda) and not even been nominated. It was a baity role and a baity project, but he was not assured of a win. The "World's Greatest Actor "narrative built during the campaign assured the win. And Phoenix should have been a huge threat to win if his campaign wasn't such a shambles. Critics were calling his work in The Master as good as anything Marlon Brando did in his prime and he couldn't even get a SAG nomination because he was acting like a petulant child all season and turning people off him. I dunno, I remember the casting being announced and everybody going 'Welp, here goes the Oscar'. Other presidential performances (in projects that were way less high profile) may not have won before but I doubt that any AMPAS member would remember that and go 'Oh, guess I'm not voting for DDL either'. The mere combo of Spielberg, Lincoln and DDL was enough. And yeah, Spielberg's movies have never won acting Oscars before that, but from the beginning this was rather clearly the film that was gonna break that mold. Phoenix wouldn't have been a threat because the movie was too alienating for AMPAS members which its lack of support aside from the acting branch clearly shows. It doesn't work like that. Nobody is ever assured of an Oscar because of a casting announcement and a director. Other performances come into play. Other narratives start to form. Races are fluid. If the mere combo of DDL, Lincoln and Spielberg was enough, that World's Greatest Actor narrative on the cover of one of the worlds most respected periodicals wouldn't have been necessary for their campaign (the exact same stunt was done for Kate Winslet to help assure her win for The Reader, a film I'm not sure anyone remembers). It all but assured the win. Yes, it was a combination of things.. DDL, Spielberg, Lincoln...and the whole "world's greatest actor coronation thing " milked heavily during that particular season. Not sure why it so hard for some to admit the last part factored as well. I'm happy to admit those other factors you mentioned made a difference.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 10, 2021 13:50:06 GMT
Remember last year when there was so much talk about Lindo being undeniable? Point is, nothing is a given this early on.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2021 13:51:25 GMT
Remember last year when there was so much talk about Lindo being undeniable? Point is, nothing is a given this early on. Wise words.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 10, 2021 13:52:49 GMT
I dunno, I remember the casting being announced and everybody going 'Welp, here goes the Oscar'. Other presidential performances (in projects that were way less high profile) may not have won before but I doubt that any AMPAS member would remember that and go 'Oh, guess I'm not voting for DDL either'. The mere combo of Spielberg, Lincoln and DDL was enough. And yeah, Spielberg's movies have never won acting Oscars before that, but from the beginning this was rather clearly the film that was gonna break that mold. Phoenix wouldn't have been a threat because the movie was too alienating for AMPAS members which its lack of support aside from the acting branch clearly shows. It doesn't work like that. Nobody is ever assured of an Oscar because of a casting announcement and a director. Other performances come into play. Other narratives start to form. Races are fluid. If the mere combo of DDL, Lincoln and Spielberg was enough, that World's Greatest Actor narrative on the cover of one of the worlds most respected periodicals wouldn't have been necessary for their campaign (the exact same stunt was done for Kate Winslet to help assure her win for The Reader, a film I'm not sure anyone remembers). It all but assured the win. Yes, it was a combination of things.. DDL, Spielberg, Lincoln...and the whole "world's greatest actor coronation thing " milked heavily during that particular season. Not sure why it so hard for some to admit the last part factored as well. I'm happy to admit those other factors you mentioned made a difference. Well, I know the win wasn't literally assured after the announcement. But from the get-go it just read as something that would become a juggernaut. Sure the cover you keep talking about helped immensely and was used as a great campaign stroke. But the win wasn't predicated on the 'third time win' narrative. At least it's not the way I remember it at all. I really don't recall the mantra of that season being 'Let's finally give Danny his third one!'
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Post by quetee on Sept 10, 2021 13:56:34 GMT
Remember last year when there was so much talk about Lindo being undeniable? Point is, nothing is a given this early on. Seriously. This is a peer award and anything can happen. Just because we adore some of those actors it doesn't mean their peers do.
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