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Post by JangoB on Aug 27, 2021 11:28:39 GMT
I don't know if i already said it, but i can see Cooper missing Actor this year, period. Especially in front of the quintet Smith-Cumberbatch-Washington-DiCaprio-Driver and Garfield and Dinklage lurking around. Unless the movie is another Crimson Peak (in that it doesn't appeal to the Academy), I can't see it happening. It's an incredibly juicy part and they love Cooper. If the film is an AMPAS hit, he's absolutely in. Why on earth is Driver is your quintet? For what? I'd actually put Cooper at #2 as far as nomination likelihood goes, after Cumberbatch. Smith's done bait that went nowhere before ("Tell de truf"), Washington is in a Shakespeare movie which don't often strike gold these days (although I do feel kinda confident about his chances) and DiCaprio is after all in what's described as a broader comedy. I'd say that in theory Cooper is on firmer ground than them.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 27, 2021 11:56:51 GMT
I don't know if i already said it, but i can see Cooper missing Actor this year, period. Especially in front of the quintet Smith-Cumberbatch-Washington-DiCaprio-Driver and Garfield and Dinklage lurking around. I mean you posted your predicted 5/6 without Cooper less than 48 hours ago, so yes I'd say you've already said it.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 27, 2021 12:04:41 GMT
This is what Variety had this week (huge bag of salt obviously) - but I have never believed in the holy grail group holding up Cumberbatch / Smith / Washington / DiCaprio / Driver or Cooper as "unbreakable wall" / all-star top 5..... I've already said Cooper is easily top 2 or 3 for me unless Nightmare Alley blows goats and Smith is 1 because he's a heroic larger than life character in a field of less immediately likable guys (plus he's really "notice me ahhhhhcting!" in the trailer always a plus) ....... To me it's an awful lot of chatter so far for stuff no normal person has actually seen - at least DiCaprio, Phoenix, Collins, Bardem (who does not "have" to go Supporting and maybe shouldn't / won't - I'm considering him lead unless we're told otherwise), have been seen by some real people............for example knowing what we've heard about DLU - I can't see DiCap missing (yet).............. while Collins / Garfield are in the Variety list ......but then I see Garfield crying, screaming, suffering, tortured, singing (!) and think this going to be an Andrew Garfield sapfest tour de force isn't it? I saw the guy win the Best Actor Tony Award and I want to say "Don't underestimate him!" but that sounds ridiculous - I mean why NOT underestimate him? .....and if Garfield gets in - then what that's 3 Netflix actors in the top 5? Not bloody likely .......on the other hand A24 doesn't seem to know what to do with Phoenix (at all), or MGM with Dinklage (?!?).......something is going to tank that "all star top 5" and.......... it may be just studio campaign incompetence 1 Will Smith 2 Andrew Garfield 3 Denzel Washington 4 Benedict Cumberbatch 5 Clifton Collins, Jr. NEXT IN LINE 6 Leonardo DiCaprio 7 Bradley Cooper 8 Adam Driver (HoG) 9 Nicolas Cage (Pig) 10 Joaquin Phoenix
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Post by JangoB on Aug 27, 2021 12:32:02 GMT
This is what Variety had this week (huge bag of salt obviously) - but I have never believed in the holy grail group holding up Cumberbatch / Smith / Washington / DiCaprio / Driver or Cooper as "unbreakable wall" / all-star top 5..... I've already said Cooper is easily top 2 or 3 for me unless Nightmare Alley blows goats and Smith is 1 because he's a heroic larger than life character in a field of less immediately likable guys (plus he's really "notice me ahhhhhcting!" in the trailer always a plus) ....... To me it's an awful lot of chatter so far for stuff no normal person has actually seen - at least DiCaprio, Phoenix, Collins, Bardem (who does not "have" to go Supporting and maybe shouldn't / won't - I'm considering him lead unless we're told otherwise), have been seen by some real people............for example knowing what we've heard about DLU - I can't see DiCap missing (yet).............. while Collins / Garfield are in the Variety list ......but then I see Garfield crying, screaming, suffering, tortured, singing (!) and think this going to be an Andrew Garfield sapfest tour de force isn't it? I saw the guy win the Best Actor Tony Award and I want to say "Don't underestimate him!" but that sounds ridiculous - I mean why NOT underestimate him? .....and if Garfield gets in - then what that's 3 Netflix actors in the top 5? Not bloody likely .......on the other hand A24 doesn't seem to know what to do with Phoenix (at all), or MGM with Dinklage (?!?).......something is going to tank that "all star top 5" and.......... it may be just studio campaign incompetence 1 Will Smith 2 Andrew Garfield 3 Denzel Washington 4 Benedict Cumberbatch 5 Clifton Collins, Jr. NEXT IN LINE 6 Leonardo DiCaprio 7 Bradley Cooper 8 Adam Driver (HoG) 9 Nicolas Cage (Pig) 10 Joaquin Phoenix Crazy Clayton at Variety is for some reason convinced that Tick Tick Boom is going to be a huge AMPAS hit... I dunno, I feel like it's gonna go almost totally unnoticed. But hey, if I'm wrong I'm wrong.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 27, 2021 13:26:18 GMT
This is what Variety had this week (huge bag of salt obviously) - but I have never believed in the holy grail group holding up Cumberbatch / Smith / Washington / DiCaprio / Driver or Cooper as "unbreakable wall" / all-star top 5..... I've already said Cooper is easily top 2 or 3 for me unless Nightmare Alley blows goats and Smith is 1 because he's a heroic larger than life character in a field of less immediately likable guys (plus he's really "notice me ahhhhhcting!" in the trailer always a plus) ....... To me it's an awful lot of chatter so far for stuff no normal person has actually seen - at least DiCaprio, Phoenix, Collins, Bardem (who does not "have" to go Supporting and maybe shouldn't / won't - I'm considering him lead unless we're told otherwise), have been seen by some real people............for example knowing what we've heard about DLU - I can't see DiCap missing (yet).............. while Collins / Garfield are in the Variety list ......but then I see Garfield crying, screaming, suffering, tortured, singing (!) and think this going to be an Andrew Garfield sapfest tour de force isn't it? I saw the guy win the Best Actor Tony Award and I want to say "Don't underestimate him!" but that sounds ridiculous - I mean why NOT underestimate him? .....and if Garfield gets in - then what that's 3 Netflix actors in the top 5? Not bloody likely .......on the other hand A24 doesn't seem to know what to do with Phoenix (at all), or MGM with Dinklage (?!?).......something is going to tank that "all star top 5" and.......... it may be just studio campaign incompetence 1 Will Smith 2 Andrew Garfield 3 Denzel Washington 4 Benedict Cumberbatch 5 Clifton Collins, Jr. NEXT IN LINE 6 Leonardo DiCaprio 7 Bradley Cooper 8 Adam Driver (HoG) 9 Nicolas Cage (Pig) 10 Joaquin Phoenix Crazy Clayton at Variety is for some reason convinced that Tick Tick Boom is going to be a huge AMPAS hit... I dunno, I feel like it's gonna go almost totally unnoticed. But hey, if I'm wrong I'm wrong. I’m pretty sure it was Indiewire’s awards preview that they did a few months ago where they were really hyping Tick, Tick Boom and Respect. I forgot the exact wording, but they said the same complimentary thing about them about how people should watch out for them because of all the good things they’ve heard. I also saw Gregory Ellison and a few other pundits hype it before Netflix bought The Lost Daughter, so it seemed like the hype might be real. Then Netflix bought The Lost Daughter which is their number two fall movie, and number three award movie behind Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog plus they seem to be promoting Passing and Bruised and a few others that I’ve probably forgotten while it seems like they forgot about Tick, Tick Boom now. I could have just wrote ITA instead but I usually have to be long winded lol. Anyway I know I always fall for it every year because there sometimes is reliable word of mouth, but it seems this year some studios are really using certain pundits to push an agenda. Like there was a lot of buzz about The Humans and especially Jayne Houdyshell early on, but now A24 has two other bigger priorities. Same with Tick, Tick Boom.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 1, 2021 17:34:17 GMT
3 BA possible contenders with premieres at Telluride: The hotly anticipated Warner Bros Williams family tennis drama King Richard starring Will Smith will have its world premiere at Telluride, along with MGM/UAR’s musical Cyrano starring Peter Dinklage, Amazon’s Encounter with Riz Ahmed plus their The Electrical Life of Louis Wain with Benedict Cumberbatch, and from Focus Features director Kenneth Branagh’s very personal coming-of-age black-and-white 1969-set film Belfast. The latter has previously been announced as a world premiere for the Toronto Film Festival, but movie fans in Colorado this Labor Day weekend will get the first look at it. Mike Mills’ A24 dramedy C’mon C’mon, which is also in black and white and stars Joaquin Phoenix, will be making its global debut as well in the Rockies over this Labor Day weekend. deadline.com/2021/09/telluride-film-festival-2021-lineup-king-richard-cyrano-1234825309/
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2021 12:38:23 GMT
Seems like it's gonna be a Dinklage and Smith showdown for the win...
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 9, 2021 13:19:43 GMT
Seems like it's gonna be a Dinklage and Smith showdown for the win... I feel like I’m missing something. I agree about Smith, but I think for Dinklage to win he’d need to steamroll ala Forest Whitaker or be extremely due and have little competition like Jeff Bridges because Cyrano doesn’t seem likely to be nominated for Best Picture to me, and likely all the other Best Actor nominees will have their films nominated for Best Picture. Maybe I’m underestimating it, because I could see it getting some technical nominations like production design and costume, and I guess there’s a new song in it too, but it has a Metacritic score of 70, and MGM possibly also has two other award vehicles with House of Gucci and PTA’s film. I can definitely see a SAG nomination for Dinklage, but I’m not sure if he’ll go further than that. I do think there could be passion for him, but with winners like Washington, DiCaprio, and Phoenix in the mix along with big contenders like King Richard and The Power of the Dog and probably Nightmare Alley, it seems like the rest of the top 7 will also have their fans and passion too. He probably would have won the Comedy/Musical Globe which would have been a big boost, but even if they still give them out in some kind of press release thing, I don’t think they’ll help anyone out especially as I could see the winners and nominees saying they don’t want anything to do with the Globes. Obviously he’ll get in at the Critics Choice, but I could see them having 7 or even 8 nominees this year and maybe nominating Collins Jr., so they can say they were right.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 9, 2021 13:31:42 GMT
Seems like it's gonna be a Dinklage and Smith showdown for the win... The race still has to take shape but I’m predicting Dinklage to struggle just to be nominated.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2021 13:36:37 GMT
Yeah, Dinklage is anywhere from 5th-7th right now.
Smith v Cumberbatch.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 9, 2021 13:44:28 GMT
Seems like it's gonna be a Dinklage and Smith showdown for the win... I really think we know 4 of the 5 nominees already tbh - Smith/Dinklage/Cumberbatch/DiCap ......whoever is the 5th nominee could be disastrous to Dinklage winning though or he could get blocked out too: If the 5th nominee is Washington - that is a similar multi-times filmed classical role and he'll look less special...........if it's Garfield that's a 2nd musical and he'll look less special.......the best thing that could happen to Dinklage is that it's neither of those 2 guys tbh........ I've never believed in this Cumberbatch/Washington/DiCap/Smith/Driver (or Cooper) solid wall.........somebody is getting Lindo'd - ( copyright 2021 - pacinoyes)......but if you read what is said about the Dinklage film carefully - it has a lot in its favor - particularly that it leaves you with a euphoric feeling at the end - that's a huge thing...........and also that nobody sees this movie and doesn't come out of it without his name on their lips first and foremost.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 9, 2021 14:07:28 GMT
Dinklage will be lucky to get a nomination, I’m not seeing a path to win.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 9, 2021 14:31:25 GMT
Seems like it's gonna be a Dinklage and Smith showdown for the win... I really think we know 4 of the 5 nominees already tbh - Smith/Dinklage/Cumberbatch/DiCap ......whoever is the 5th nominee could be disastrous to Dinklage winning though or he could get blocked out too: If the 5th nominee is Washington - that is a similar multi-times filmed classical role and he'll look less special...........if it's Garfield that's a 2nd musical and he'll look less special.......the best thing that could happen to Dinklage is that it's neither of those 2 guys tbh........ I've never believed in this Cumberbatch/Washington/DiCap/Smith/Driver (or Cooper) solid wall.........somebody is getting Lindo'd - ( copyright 2021 - pacinoyes)......but if you read what is said about the Dinklage film carefully - it has a lot in its favor - particularly that it leaves you with a euphoric feeling at the end - that's a huge thing...........and also that nobody sees this movie and doesn't come out of it without his name on their lips first and foremost. ^ By the way, just a note that Cyrano is the freakin' Joker of non-comic book / classical roles - 2 most famous versions filmed.........a BA Oscar win (1950) and an Oscar nod (1990).......just something to keep in mind if he gets nodded that would be pretty curious - every 30-40 years people get nodded for it
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Post by franklin on Sept 9, 2021 15:18:28 GMT
1. Will Smith 2. Benedict Cumberbatch 3. Leonardo DiCaprio 4. Denzel Washington 5. Peter Dinklage
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Post by quetee on Sept 9, 2021 15:39:28 GMT
This is going to be a brutal race. I wonder when the time comes, will there be a lot of negative stories on Will Smith's real life counter part.
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Post by stephen on Sept 9, 2021 15:40:59 GMT
This is going to be a brutal race. I wonder when the time comes, will there be a lot of negative stories on real life counter part. Waiting for the hit pieces on Macbeth, King of Scotland.
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Post by quetee on Sept 9, 2021 15:42:28 GMT
This is going to be a brutal race. I wonder when the time comes, will there be a lot of negative stories on real life counter part. Waiting for the hit pieces on Macbeth, King of Scotland. By accident, I edited out Will Smith's name. LMAO.
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Sept 9, 2021 15:49:15 GMT
This is going to be a brutal race. I wonder when the time comes, will there be a lot of negative stories on real life counter part. Waiting for the hit pieces on Macbeth, King of Scotland. Well..he did execute a coup d' etat. I'm sure that's not going to fly in some circles.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 9, 2021 18:17:06 GMT
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 9, 2021 18:44:56 GMT
Smith seems to me the typical contender that starts strong, then gets caught in controversy, and in the end is lucky to be nominated, if it even manages that.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2021 23:26:08 GMT
Smith seems to me the typical contender that starts strong, then gets caught in controversy, and in the end is lucky to be nominated, if it even manages that. What controversy?? If it's because Smith is lighter than the actual Richard Williams, I really don't think anyone is going to make much of a fuss about that. Smith is comfortably Top 2, and probably will be all season.
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Post by futuretrunks on Sept 9, 2021 23:30:07 GMT
I think Smith is winning. Enough to put money on it.
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Post by flasuss on Sept 10, 2021 0:33:06 GMT
Smith seems to me the typical contender that starts strong, then gets caught in controversy, and in the end is lucky to be nominated, if it even manages that. What controversy?? If it's because Smith is lighter than the actual Richard Williams, I really don't think anyone is going to make much of a fuss about that. Smith is comfortably Top 2, and probably will be all season. Oh, there was already some complaints about the success of two women being filmed as the story of one man, and I don't doubt for a second other ones, real or fabricated, appear, whether it's about the movie, Smith, or someone else, or the same one returns in force. Frontrunners this early rarely go the distance, specially in such a crowded year. Or even without any controversy, it can just lose steam- if that can happen to Boseman, can happen to anyone.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2021 1:35:09 GMT
What controversy?? If it's because Smith is lighter than the actual Richard Williams, I really don't think anyone is going to make much of a fuss about that. Smith is comfortably Top 2, and probably will be all season. Oh, there was already some complaints about the success of two women being filmed as the story of one man, and I don't doubt for a second other ones, real or fabricated, appear, whether it's about the movie, Smith, or someone else, or the same one returns in force. Frontrunners this early rarely go the distance, specially in such a crowded year. Or even without any controversy, it can just lose steam- if that can happen to Boseman, can happen to anyone. I see where you're coming from, but I don't think Smith will be facing anyone as titanic/undeniable as Hopkins.
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Post by flasuss on Sept 10, 2021 1:52:43 GMT
Oh, there was already some complaints about the success of two women being filmed as the story of one man, and I don't doubt for a second other ones, real or fabricated, appear, whether it's about the movie, Smith, or someone else, or the same one returns in force. Frontrunners this early rarely go the distance, specially in such a crowded year. Or even without any controversy, it can just lose steam- if that can happen to Boseman, can happen to anyone. I see where you're coming from, but I don't think Smith will be facing anyone as titanic/undeniable as Hopkins. Maybe, but certainly Smith won't have anything remotely like Boseman's appeal and narrative either.
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