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Post by stephen on Aug 25, 2021 15:38:32 GMT
Interesting, why the Collins pick?? The raves he earned out of Sundance, mainly. If the "great character actor gets a rare leading role"-type campaign is strong, it'd be a lovely tribute. Think Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. It does have a good studio behind it, but it remains to be seen if they'll prioritize it. He needs the critics to go to bat for him like they did for Jenkins (who also benefited from kind of a weak year).
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2021 15:45:35 GMT
The raves he earned out of Sundance, mainly. If the "great character actor gets a rare leading role"-type campaign is strong, it'd be a lovely tribute. Think Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. It does have a good studio behind it, but it remains to be seen if they'll prioritize it. He needs the critics to go to bat for him like they did for Jenkins (who also benefited from kind of a weak year). I'm sticking with it for now. I'm having a really hard time seeing Don't Look Up as a contender for Acting nominations.
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Post by franklin on Aug 25, 2021 16:31:55 GMT
1. Smith 2. Cumberbatch 3. DiCaprio 4. Washington 5. Driver/Garfield
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:31:10 GMT
Interesting, why the Collins pick?? The raves he earned out of Sundance, mainly. If the "great character actor gets a rare leading role"-type campaign is strong, it'd be a lovely tribute. Think Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. Kind of like the Emilia Jones argument I had with Feese, I don't think Sundance raves will be enough for him. Only doing TIFF isn't the greatest, I don't think he'll be that much of a critics push (I see Cumberbatch/Driver taking A LOT of the critics awards), and December 29th is too late of a release for a smaller film with someone not super well known as the lead to be able to make it in a sea of people like Smith, Washington, Cumberbatch, Cooper, DiCaprio, Driver, Garfield, Dinklage etc. I'd be happy to be wrong, as he's a criminally underrated actor, but I'm just not seeing this one getting much buzz.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:33:57 GMT
The last couple of people posting their predictions here not having Cooper is very interesting to me. The Academy loves to nominate him, and he's got a super baity part in Searchlight's #1 from a recent BP/BD winner. I am as confident in him getting nominated as I am any of the other contenders.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:35:58 GMT
It does have a good studio behind it, but it remains to be seen if they'll prioritize it. He needs the critics to go to bat for him like they did for Jenkins (who also benefited from kind of a weak year). I'm sticking with it for now. I'm having a really hard time seeing Don't Look Up as a contender for Acting nominations. Not to hound you with a million questions, but how come? McKay's last 2 films got 4 acting noms between them, it's probably going to be a decent BP contender, and you know, it's DiCaprio and Lawrence.
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Post by stephen on Aug 25, 2021 23:41:18 GMT
I'm sticking with it for now. I'm having a really hard time seeing Don't Look Up as a contender for Acting nominations. Not to hound you with a million questions, but how come? McKay's last 2 films got 3 acting noms between them, it's probably going to be a decent BP contender, and you know, it's DiCaprio and Lawrence. Four, actually.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2021 23:41:34 GMT
I'm sticking with it for now. I'm having a really hard time seeing Don't Look Up as a contender for Acting nominations. Not to hound you with a million questions, but how come? McKay's last 2 films got 3 acting noms between them, it's probably going to be a decent BP contender, and you know, it's DiCaprio and Lawrence. It’s just a gut feeling, mainly because it’s a comedy and an ensemble piece. I don’t doubt that it will be in the conversation for other major nominations, though - maybe Ford v Ferrari is my point of comparison.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2021 23:43:03 GMT
The last couple of people posting their predictions here not having Cooper is very interesting to me. The Academy loves to nominate him, and he's got a super baity part in Searchlight's #1 from a recent BP/BD winner. I am as confident in him getting nominated as I am any of the other contenders. Double nominations between this and the PTA project? I’m feeling him more in Supporting Actor at the moment.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:43:30 GMT
Not to hound you with a million questions, but how come? McKay's last 2 films got 3 acting noms between them, it's probably going to be a decent BP contender, and you know, it's DiCaprio and Lawrence. Four, actually. As you can imagine, I completely forgot they nominated Rockwell.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:45:02 GMT
The last couple of people posting their predictions here not having Cooper is very interesting to me. The Academy loves to nominate him, and he's got a super baity part in Searchlight's #1 from a recent BP/BD winner. I am as confident in him getting nominated as I am any of the other contenders. Double nominations between this and the PTA project? I’m feeling him more in Supporting Actor at the moment. Quite possibly, yes. Johansson did it just two years ago, no doubt in my mind that Cooper could do it this season.
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Post by quetee on Aug 25, 2021 23:45:21 GMT
McKay's last two films were based on real events too... so...
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:49:45 GMT
Not to hound you with a million questions, but how come? McKay's last 2 films got 3 acting noms between them, it's probably going to be a decent BP contender, and you know, it's DiCaprio and Lawrence. It’s just a gut feeling, mainly because it’s a comedy and an ensemble piece. I don’t doubt that it will be in the conversation for other major nominations, though - maybe Ford v Ferrari is my point of comparison. I'd say Don't Look Up will end up being very similar in tone to Vice and The Big Short. I don't think Ford v Ferrari works as a good comparison because a) that wasn't a comedy ensemble piece and b) it was a weaker contender overall than this will be. Only scraped into BP, and didn't get Director or Screenplay noms.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 25, 2021 23:52:31 GMT
McKay's last two films were based on real events too... so... I don't think that really had anything to do with their awards successes tbh.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 25, 2021 23:57:18 GMT
The last couple of people posting their predictions here not having Cooper is very interesting to me. The Academy loves to nominate him, and he's got a super baity part in Searchlight's #1 from a recent BP/BD winner. I am as confident in him getting nominated as I am any of the other contenders. Exactly - He's top 3 imo sight unseen for me too and it seems so clear - the only way that role misses is because it's a villain or if the movie tanks........but he likely is in a big hit, a likely BP nominee, and he centers the whole story and is interacting with other likely nominees. The role is also complex - he's not a straight villain and he has a romantic subplot and of course the character is "acting" for large stretches of the story with a full arc. No one has that except Cumberbatch - another villain who's role is actually simpler - and Smith who is not a villain (a plus) but may not get the BP nod the others likely will.........and Washington has a Shakespeare bias AND he's a villain. All 4 of those guys should get in but it's so perfect for Cooper who is a possible double nominee too (again sight unseen) - I can't see how he's not a top 3 prediction in BA as of now anyway.......
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Post by quetee on Aug 25, 2021 23:57:58 GMT
McKay's last two films were based on real events too... so... I don't think that really had anything to do with their awards successes tbh. It doesn't hurt. They have a big jones for actors who play real characters.
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Post by quetee on Aug 25, 2021 23:59:22 GMT
The voters are still on the Cooper high. I know he's not beloved around here but people like him. He even managed to get invited to Obama's b-day party. Haha.
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Post by stephen on Aug 26, 2021 0:08:52 GMT
The DiCaprio doubt kinda surprises me. McKay is not only a latter-day awards darling, but DiCaprio is the biggest movie star alive and he's reached a stage where he's probably gonna get nominated for anything even remotely Oscar-baity. Now this role on paper doesn't seem Oscar-baity . . . but the pedigree surrounding it make it seem almost too big to fail. Almost. I'm not convinced in its win equity as of yet (and certainly not his own; I think he'll probably replicate his 2019 path again here), but to think DiCaprio is missing feels a bit of a headscratcher.
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Post by futuretrunks on Aug 26, 2021 0:10:18 GMT
Before fall festivals predictions: Cooper Cumberbatch DiCaprio Smith Washington I think it'll be the first year in a long time where we don't get any newbies. I still remember when PSH/TLJ/Waltz/Arkin/DeNiro in Supporting Actor looked very likely and some folks thought that was crazy. The stats are incidental. They should never overrule just looking at the year.
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Post by futuretrunks on Aug 26, 2021 0:13:19 GMT
The DiCaprio doubt kinda surprises me. McKay is not only a latter-day awards darling, but DiCaprio is the biggest movie star alive and he's reached a stage where he's probably gonna get nominated for anything even remotely Oscar-baity. Now this role on paper doesn't seem Oscar-baity . . . but the pedigree surrounding it make it seem almost too big to fail. Almost. I'm not convinced in its win equity as of yet (and certainly not his own; I think he'll probably replicate his 2019 path again here), but to think DiCaprio is missing feels a bit of a headscratcher. I was surprised by the DiCaprio clip in that teaser. Seemed way more flamboyant a performance than I was expecting, which I think bodes well for his chances, even if he ultimately misses out at #7 or whatever. The role just seemed too boring to me on the page.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 26, 2021 0:55:34 GMT
I don't think that really had anything to do with their awards successes tbh. It doesn't hurt. They have a big jones for actors who play real characters. Doesn't hurt, but I don't think it really helped either. All I'm saying is that Don't Look Up not being based on true story will have no effect on DiCaprio's chances.
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Post by morton on Aug 26, 2021 1:52:28 GMT
Before fall festivals predictions: Cooper Cumberbatch DiCaprio Smith Washington I think it'll be the first year in a long time where we don't get any newbies. I still remember when PSH/TLJ/Waltz/Arkin/DeNiro in Supporting Actor looked very likely and some folks thought that was crazy. The stats are incidental. They should never overrule just looking at the year. Yes, I’ve seen other forums bring up the newbie stat which to be fair is pretty strong, but I feel like the top 7 maybe even top 9 contenders are previous nominees, and I don’t know that Dinklage or Collins can breakthrough that. The top 5 are in alphabetical order: 1. Cooper 2. Cumberbatch 3. DiCaprio 4. Smith 5. Washington Then Phoenix is a close sixth, and then I guess Bardem, Driver, and Garfield would round it out probably in that same order too. Sometimes it just works out that way. Dinklage is very well respected, but Wright can be really hit or miss, and MGM is going to have 3 other potential films to campaign in someway. Can they do that after being out of the game for so long? I saw him being compared to Cranston in Trumbo as a lead Emmy winner that got nominated in actor, but that was a really weak year. Collins is another well respected veteran, and he’s got SPC behind him, but stephen and mhynson27 bring up great points. When Jenkins was nominated for The Visitor that was another weak year, and there’s a lot of potential for other actors to win the critics. I would say that Cumberbatch, Washington, and maybe Cooper win the top ones with Smith winning some regional ones and maybe Driver popping up here and there. This year I don’t think Collins can get that far even with possibly a SAG nomination, and even then I think it will be tough, without winning some big critics award.
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Post by dazed on Aug 27, 2021 2:41:45 GMT
DiCaprio Rex Smith Washington Cumberbatch
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 27, 2021 2:48:19 GMT
DiCaprio RexSmith Washington Cumberbatch
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Post by franklin on Aug 27, 2021 11:06:48 GMT
I don't know if i already said it, but i can see Cooper missing Actor this year, period. Especially in front of the quintet Smith-Cumberbatch-Washington-DiCaprio-Driver and Garfield and Dinklage lurking around.
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