filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 14, 2021 16:27:16 GMT
I'm not really entirely sold on Smith either. He reminds me of Stallone for Creed, that was treated as frontrunner because he was a major star without an Oscar with a long successful carreer that would win the industry prizes for being seen as overdue and there was no way he'd lose to someone likr Rylance for such an understated role, and yet... Of course, Smith's movie is a much stronger contender, but Denzel and Cumberbatch are at least on paper stronger contenders than Rylance as well. Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 14, 2021 16:43:50 GMT
I'm not really entirely sold on Smith either. He reminds me of Stallone for Creed, that was treated as frontrunner because he was a major star without an Oscar with a long successful carreer that would win the industry prizes for being seen as overdue and there was no way he'd lose to someone likr Rylance for such an understated role, and yet... Of course, Smith's movie is a much stronger contender, but Denzel and Cumberbatch are at least on paper stronger contenders than Rylance as well. Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
He's not even a lock to be nominated if he's 4th (I think Garfield is 3rd and Washington is waaaaaaaaaaaaay better than Garfield AND Washington could win, but Garfield is 3rd imo).......Washington needs to win a big precursor award this year - this year is different - his best shot was New York and NBR ..........he could really use LA to throw him the award actually .......but that doesn't seem likely - THEY could go with Hidetoshi Nishijima actually  People underestimating Smith are not seeing the film in a fully logical way - he's the Best Actor front runner within the first 20 minutes of King Richard - in 20 minutes he has an arc that no other actor has this year and only Cumberbatch gets by the end. Smith's movie was small potatoes to me but I can recognize that's a slam dunk BP that is built around him ........he's at worst #2........and I say if he wins the Globe (means nothing this year but it would be nice) and SAG (NEEDS this) .........he's #1 until they open the envelope. Cumby is winning BAFTA I think it's safe to say ........which introduces doubt .........Smith isn't like Stallone to me either........he's more like Pitt .........with a better role........ |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 14, 2021 17:04:12 GMT
When Denzel gets his SAG nomination, you can pretty much book him for the nomination. He's already landed at Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Historically for him he just needs those 3 industry precursors as a tell-tale sign he's getting nominated. With American Gangster that year in 2007, he only had the Golden Globes nom. I already think he's in, but SAG will seal it. At that point, the only suspenseful thing is if BAFTA will ignore him again for an Oscar-nominated Shakesperian (their pasttime) performance. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 14, 2021 17:15:53 GMT
When Denzel gets his SAG nomination, you can pretty much book him for the nomination. He's already landed at Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Historically for him he just needs those 3 industry precursors as a tell-tale sign he's getting nominated. With American Gangster that year in 2007, he only had the Golden Globes nom. I already think he's in, but SAG will seal it. At that point, the only suspenseful thing is if BAFTA will ignore him again for an Oscar-nominated Shakesperian (their pasttime) performance. I hope he gets the BAFTA finally and doesn't show up. Then later on in an interview they ask him why he didn't show up, he says he had something better to do.  |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 14, 2021 17:18:11 GMT
When Denzel gets his SAG nomination, you can pretty much book him for the nomination. He's already landed at Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Historically for him he just needs those 3 industry precursors as a tell-tale sign he's getting nominated. With American Gangster that year in 2007, he only had the Golden Globes nom. I already think he's in, but SAG will seal it. At that point, the only suspenseful thing is if BAFTA will ignore him again for an Oscar-nominated Shakesperian (their pasttime) performance. I hope he gets the BAFTA finally and doesn't show up. Then later on in an interview they ask him why he didn't show up, he says he had something better to do. Are the Lakers playing at Staples that night? |
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Post by quetee on Dec 14, 2021 17:41:27 GMT
I hope he gets the BAFTA finally and doesn't show up. Then later on in an interview they ask him why he didn't show up, he says he had something better to do. Are the Lakers playing at Staples that night? Haha. I had to check but nope. Away game. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 14, 2021 18:19:09 GMT
I'm curious if everyone who is predicting Nishijima has seen the film and see something else in him and the film I don't? Regardless of it it not being in English, it's not the type of performance the AMPAS go for at all.
If people are looking for a dark horse I think Cooper Hoffman is much likelier.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 14, 2021 19:30:43 GMT
Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
He's not even a lock to be nominated if he's 4th (I think Garfield is 3rd and Washington is waaaaaaaaaaaaay better than Garfield AND Washington could win, but Garfield is 3rd imo).......Washington needs to win a big precursor award this year - this year is different - his best shot was New York and NBR ..........he could really use LA to throw him the award actually .......but that doesn't seem likely - THEY could go with Hidetoshi Nishijima actually People underestimating Smith are not seeing the film in a fully logical way - he's the Best Actor front runner within the first 20 minutes of King Richard - in 20 minutes he has an arc that no other actor has this year and only Cumberbatch gets by the end. Smith's movie was small potatoes to me but I can recognize that's a slam dunk BP that is built around him ........he's at worst #2........and I say if he wins the Globe (means nothing this year but it would be nice) and SAG (NEEDS this) .........he's #1 until they open the envelope. Cumby is winning BAFTA I think it's safe to say ........which introduces doubt .........Smith isn't like Stallone to me either........he's more like Pitt .........with a better role........ is now tied with Washington for that 4th-5th betting slot on Gold Derby btw so that's a change as of today........with 13-2 odds ........now I don't buy that Gold Derby stuff but Washington's dropped from 2nd to 4th or 5th while A24 has been twiddling their thumbs or whatever....... Smith 17-5, Cumby 4-1, Garfield 5-1 atm ....the good news - depending who you are pulling for - is that nobody is even close to knocking these guys out - DiCap is 6th but waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back at 22-1 www.goldderby.com/odds/expert-odds/oscars-nominations-2022-predictions/ |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 14, 2021 20:38:12 GMT
If all these couldn't help a well known actor like Mikkelsen last year, how does an unknown like Nishijima even stand a chance?? I'm predicting Nishijima because I believe Drive My Car is going to be strong film overall with AMPAS (even moreso than Another Round was last year even though it won Best International Feature Film). Along with Power of The Dog its one of the most acclaimed films of the year and I think critics' passion for this film in pushing it will at least get the attention of the AMPAS's various branches to check it out to see what the fuss is about. I think Drive My Car will have enough support with AMPAS to push Nishijima to the #5 slot and he gets to fill the "newcomer" slot that is usually the case with the final 5 for Best Actor. I don't think Dinklage is going to make into Best Actor this year, even though I predict him to get SAG. DiCaprio? Cage? Bardem? Cooper? I don't know...Nishijima is my NGNG out of left field prediction. So what noms do you think the films gets to make it stronger than Another Round?? Picture and/or Director? |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 14, 2021 21:10:45 GMT
I'm curious if everyone who is predicting Nishijima has seen the film and see something else in him and the film I don't? Regardless of it it not being in English, it's not the type of performance the AMPAS go for at all. If people are looking for a dark horse I think Cooper Hoffman is much likelier. I think Nicholas Cage is likelier. He is more well known to the Academy.
Cooper Hoffman's age works against him for Best Actor. But then he could get votes from those who wants to honor his father.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 14, 2021 21:19:45 GMT
1. Smith
2. Cumberbatch
3. Garfield
4. Washington
5. Dinklage
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 14, 2021 21:33:19 GMT
I'm predicting Nishijima because I believe Drive My Car is going to be strong film overall with AMPAS (even moreso than Another Round was last year even though it won Best International Feature Film). Along with Power of The Dog its one of the most acclaimed films of the year and I think critics' passion for this film in pushing it will at least get the attention of the AMPAS's various branches to check it out to see what the fuss is about. I think Drive My Car will have enough support with AMPAS to push Nishijima to the #5 slot and he gets to fill the "newcomer" slot that is usually the case with the final 5 for Best Actor. I don't think Dinklage is going to make into Best Actor this year, even though I predict him to get SAG. DiCaprio? Cage? Bardem? Cooper? I don't know...Nishijima is my NGNG out of left field prediction. So what noms do you think the films gets to make it stronger than Another Round?? Picture and/or Director? I think the film is in play for Picture, Actor, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. Maybe if they have a great Oscar nomination morning perhaps Editing as well. But I think those first 4 categories are in play for it for sure. But Nishijima is my dark horse NGNG prediction. I'm going against the smart money and thinking he will ride the strength of his film to a nomination. We'll see. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Dec 14, 2021 23:52:54 GMT
I'm not really entirely sold on Smith either. He reminds me of Stallone for Creed, that was treated as frontrunner because he was a major star without an Oscar with a long successful carreer that would win the industry prizes for being seen as overdue and there was no way he'd lose to someone likr Rylance for such an understated role, and yet... Of course, Smith's movie is a much stronger contender, but Denzel and Cumberbatch are at least on paper stronger contenders than Rylance as well. Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
Stallone wasn't playing a real-life character, of course, but he was playing one of the most beloved fictional characters of the last decades, which already was the star of a BP winner, and was likely his last chance of winning. And Denzel isn't even Smith's only threat (maybe not even his biggest), with Cumberbatch likely to take BAFTA and being in a movie that will likely do even better with the Academy. Plus, Will Smith has as opponent...Will Smith, and his ability to get involved in controversy even without being in Oscar season.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 15, 2021 0:27:55 GMT
Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
Stallone wasn't playing a real-life character, of course, but he was playing one of the most beloved fictional characters of the last decades, which already was the star of a BP winner, and was likely his last chance of winning. And Denzel isn't even Smith's only threat (maybe not even his biggest), with Cumberbatch likely to take BAFTA and being in a movie that will likely do even better with the Academy. Plus, Will Smith has as opponent...Will Smith, and his ability to get involved in controversy even without being in Oscar season.
The Stallone comparison never made sense for the reasons already pointed out. Will Smith was never expected to be the critics sweep. Most Best Actor winners in recent years were not. So unless he starts losing the industry awards, it would be foolish to assume that he is not formidable competition.
BTW, The Stallone argument failed big time when people here were convinced that Regina King would suffered his fate because they were not nominated by SAG and BAFTA. And because of BAFTA, people were convinced that Rachel Weisz was going to win.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 15, 2021 7:38:21 GMT
I'm not really entirely sold on Smith either. He reminds me of Stallone for Creed, that was treated as frontrunner because he was a major star without an Oscar with a long successful carreer that would win the industry prizes for being seen as overdue and there was no way he'd lose to someone likr Rylance for such an understated role, and yet... Of course, Smith's movie is a much stronger contender, but Denzel and Cumberbatch are at least on paper stronger contenders than Rylance as well. Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
For the win? Because it isn't even Top 5. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 15, 2021 7:42:11 GMT
So what noms do you think the films gets to make it stronger than Another Round?? Picture and/or Director? I think the film is in play for Picture, Actor, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. Maybe if they have a great Oscar nomination morning perhaps Editing as well. But I think those first 4 categories are in play for it for sure. But Nishijima is my dark horse NGNG prediction. I'm going against the smart money and thinking he will ride the strength of his film to a nomination. We'll see. Yeah I'm on the opposite side here. I think it is an outside shot for a Screenplay nom and that's it. I don't know where you're seeing this 'strength' for the film. A NY BP win doesn't really mean shit. Do you think it hits at SAG and/or BAFTA? Because it has already done the bare minimum and that's it at both GG and BFCA. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 15, 2021 15:52:46 GMT
Not comparable. Smith is playing a real life character and King Richard will be a contender for Best Picture.
Stallone had been playing the Rocky character for the last 40 years. Creed was also the only film's nominee.
Denzel will get nominated, but so far The Tragedy of MacBeth has under performed.
For the win? Because it isn't even Top 5. It doesn't matter where it ranks. Best Actor doesn't need Best Picture to win. |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 15, 2021 16:46:24 GMT
I think the film is in play for Picture, Actor, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. Maybe if they have a great Oscar nomination morning perhaps Editing as well. But I think those first 4 categories are in play for it for sure. But Nishijima is my dark horse NGNG prediction. I'm going against the smart money and thinking he will ride the strength of his film to a nomination. We'll see. Yeah I'm on the opposite side here. I think it is an outside shot for a Screenplay nom and that's it. I don't know where you're seeing this 'strength' for the film. A NY BP win doesn't really mean shit. Do you think it hits at SAG and/or BAFTA? Because it has already done the bare minimum and that's it at both GG and BFCA. I think its going to have a better nomination morning with the BAFTAs than SAG. Could see it get near the same noms that Another Round got last year give or take Best Leading Actor. Hamaguchi seems like the classic passion pick by the AMPAS Directors branch that doesn't get in at the DGA but shows up Oscar morning. Adapted Screenplay isn't that competitive that Drive My Car couldn't get in the final 5 and obviously with 10 slots for Best Picture this year it could get in there as well if the members aren't really passionate about some of the other Oscar fare. I admit its a bit of a long shot, but there has been nominations in the past where where AMPAS went left-field when pundits/predictors didn't see it coming. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 15, 2021 22:17:26 GMT
For the win? Because it isn't even Top 5. It doesn't matter where it ranks. Best Actor doesn't need Best Picture to win. I'm aware, I was just wondering if you legitimately think it has a shot at winning BP. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 16, 2021 3:07:22 GMT
I'll give you guys my top 15 power rankings. Yes, top 15.
1. Will Smith for King Richard - Before any awards were handed out, he was seen as the front-runner, and that narrative still hasn't changed one bit. He scored best actor nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice, and won the NBR best actor trophy.
2. Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog - Scored Globe and Critics Choice best actor nomination, and won the NY Film Critic best actor award.
3. Andrew Garfield for tick, tick...Boom! - No major wins just yet, but the performance did score best actor nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice awards. On top of that, his movie received best picture nods from the Critics Choice and Globe awards.
4. Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth - Scored Globe and Critics Choice nominations for his performance.
5. Peter Dinklage for Cyrano - Scored Globe and Critics Choice nominations for his performance.
6. Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos - Scored a Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. Being the Ricardos is getting actress, supporting actor, and screenplay attention.
7. Mahershala Ali for Swan Song - Scored a Globe for Best Actor in a Drama.
8. Nicolas Cage for Pig - Critics Choice Best Actor nominee.
9. Cooper Hoffman for Licorice Pizza - Scored a Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. His film is a strong contender for best picture.
10. Leonardo Dicaprio for Don't Look Up - Scored a Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. His film scored picture nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice.
11. Anthony Ramos for In the Heights - Scored a Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical.
12. Hidetoshi Nishijima for Drive My Car - Won the Boston Film Critics Best Actor award. His film seems to be killing it with critics circle groups.
13. Bradley Cooper for Nightmare Alley - We saw Bradley Cooper sneak into the best actor category without being nominated at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. I believe Cooper's performance in American Sniper was the last time we saw a best actor nominee get in without a Globe or Critics Choice nomination.
14. Ansel Elgort and Timothy Chalamet - Both are attached to strong best picture contenders.
Some notes: Historically we see between 3-4 Best Actor in a Drama at the Globes scoring a best actor nomination. I put Bardem and Ali in the 6th and 7th spot due to that statistic.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 21, 2021 20:36:31 GMT
I'm going to repeat something I said before - females LOVE this performance......some guys do too of course but females are really affected by it ...... I'm starting to think he could compete more than I thought before ....not win - I still think it's Smith and Cumby and Cumby missed here iirc.....but I think Garfield's shaping up as an actual competitive 3rd now and not just a placeholder.......he won this today.....it's still early .....
Online Association of Female Film Critics
@theoaffc
This year's Online Association of Female Film Critics award for Best Male Lead goes to Andrew Garfield in "Tick, Tick...BOOM!" #OAFFCawards
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Post by JangoB on Dec 28, 2021 12:53:40 GMT
1. Cumberbatch
2. Smith
3. Garfield
4. Washington
5. DiCaprio
Can't quite see Dinklage breaking through at the moment plus DLU will have to have some representation in the acting categories, won't it? And Leo seems to be the likeliest candidate. Unless they throw a Supporting nomination to Streep or Blanchett. Lawrence probably won't get in such a stacked category...but who knows.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 28, 2021 13:16:18 GMT
1. Cumberbatch 2. Smith 3. Garfield 4. Washington 5. DiCaprio Can't quite see Dinklage breaking through at the moment plus DLU will have to have some representation in the acting categories, won't it? And Leo seems to be the likeliest candidate. Unless they throw a Supporting nomination to Streep or Blanchett. Lawrence probably won't get in such a stacked category...but who knows. Yeah, I think that is a pretty comfortable/safe Top 5. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 13:53:38 GMT
Benedict Cumberbatch
Peter Dinklage
Andrew Garfield
Will Smith
Denzel Washington
With DiCaprio as the obvious alternate - if he makes SAG, then I think he's likely in.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 5, 2022 17:18:29 GMT
Is anyone else surprised that Joaquin Phoenix isn’t more of a contender? He’s coming off of a Best Actor Oscar and delivered a pretty great and grounded performance is a polar opposite role. I’d think he’d be more part of the conversation.
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