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Post by stephen on Dec 2, 2021 13:49:47 GMT
I went to bed early last night so I didn't see the Nightmare Alley reviews come in, but from the ones I checked out this morning, I still see that Cooper and Blanchett got pretty good notices. Why are people bailing on him now?
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 2, 2021 14:33:32 GMT
1. Will Smith 2. Benedict Cumberbatch 3. Leonardo DiCaprio 4. Denzel Washington I’m feeling pretty confident in these four (I wouldn’t call them locks because it’s still early). I think Garfield will probably pop up as the fifth nominee at SAG and could easily win the Comedy Globe (if they happen). However, I think he’ll end up getting snubbed like Egerton before him. I’m gonna say Phoenix ends up getting nominated instead. Bardem and Dinklage are threats too. Exactly where I am now. I guess I would give Garfield the edge for now, but Phoenix and C’mon C’mon could really start peaking at the right time. I went to bed early last night so I didn't see the Nightmare Alley reviews come in, but from the ones I checked out this morning, I still see that Cooper and Blanchett got pretty good notices. Why are people bailing on him now? From the people I’ve interacted with in some form that have seen it, they’re all saying that it’s very dark and slow. Most think his best moments come in the third act which might be good because that could be the last thing voters remember, but they actually have to sit through the whole thing to get there. I just don’t think it’s the type of movie to be an awards player beyond techs because of how dark and slow it is. Plus they can just nominate Cooper in Supporting, they don’t have to nominate him in leading or both. |
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Post by franklin on Dec 5, 2021 23:31:12 GMT
I'm starting to think the unthinkable, Denzel Washington may miss the nomination this year.
There's little buzz regarding the film outside of the NYC film festival bubble and the bad marketing is not helping either.
I know people here will say that they nominated him even for Roman J. Israel Esq. but in 2017 there was a way weaker competition in that category and his biggest opponent for the nomination James Franco was hindered by the sexual allegations.
In other words i could see him miss in favor of actors like Dinklage, Phoenix, or Bardem.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 5, 2021 23:41:00 GMT
I'm starting to think the unthinkable, Denzel Washington may miss the nomination this year. There's little buzz regarding the film outside of the NYC film festival bubble and the bad marketing is not helping either. I know people here will say that they nominated him even for Roman J. Israel Esq. but in 2017 there was a way weaker competition in that category and his biggest opponent for the nomination James Franco was hindered by the sexual allegations. In other words i could see him miss in favor of actors like Dinklage, Phoenix, or Bardem. " Little Buzz"
It's more anticipated by some sections of movie-going audiences than Don't Look Up, starring Leo and an army of stars .It just won Adapted Screenplay , Cinematography and got a Best Film Mention at National Board Of Review.
Kathryn Hunter just won Best Supporting Actress at the New York Film Critics Circle. Denzel himself has already picked up a couple of Best Actor critics nods. The film has 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 89 on Metacritic. It is the best reviewed film of Washington's career. Calling Washington in danger of missing at this point is the biggest case of " trying it" I've seen in awhile  At least wait till he misses SAG or something. Till then, he's the Academy's favorite working male actor who gets nominated with less help than another other male actor, so he should get in comfortably with the best reviewed film of his career (and also performance reviews good enough to win the Oscar). The man doesn't even need a BAFTA nod to get nominated, for chrissakes. People never learn. He is the last person right now (aside from maybe Smith) that you need to worry about missing. I could see Cumberbatch being snubbed before Washington (but I believe they both get nominated). |
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Post by futuretrunks on Dec 5, 2021 23:47:18 GMT
Man, I was underwhelmed by Smith and Cumberbatch, so either winning is going to be painful. Frankly, I think Garfield was easily better than both. Haven't yet seen Denzel, Leo, Dinklage, Phoenix, etc.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 6, 2021 0:11:52 GMT
I'm starting to think the unthinkable, Denzel Washington may miss the nomination this year. There's little buzz regarding the film outside of the NYC film festival bubble and the bad marketing is not helping either. I know people here will say that they nominated him even for Roman J. Israel Esq. but in 2017 there was a way weaker competition in that category and his biggest opponent for the nomination James Franco was hindered by the sexual allegations. In other words i could see him miss in favor of actors like Dinklage, Phoenix, or Bardem. Meh. It's not unthinkable and it was raised on here before too ......I think in September (?) just because of how crowded the field is. I mean why is it "unthinkable"? He's not my Olivier, he's not my Brando - nobody owes him anything much less a 9th nomination at 68 years old - I mean Olivier is my Olivier - but I do think he's safe because what gets him in - and then he could possibly win - is that Dinklage, Garfield, Phoenix and Cooper all "seem" likely to miss above the line nods for their movies - maybe all of them ! - and don't have much heat apart from themselves. Cooper is a little hard to judge atm........I know you aren't a fan of his - but Nightmare Alley is still over 80% RT and anything is possible and they love Cooper .......you never know how that will play out just yet. Denzel has dropped in some ways though - that is clear - either because of A24 is a mess or because the performace is so internal until the end scenes and people have reconsidered it .........I still think he's 4th atm behind Smith, Cumby, Garfield (at least by Gold Derby's odds atm).......but to knock him out it seems to me it has to be guys who have heat in a film and that's DiCap and Bardem - but I don't think Bardem has the ability to overtake him........DiCap maybe does. Now, I refuse to believe that DLU is getting a BP nod - multiple nods - and DiCap misses in 2021......so that maybe at worst makes Washington 5th .........but something seismic would have to occur........Cyrano getting a BP nod ............or something weirdly unforseen (yes, Cage-aholics - Cage getting in for Pig - something like that .....) Could that happen........sure..........is it likely? No, it doesn't seem very likely .............as of Dec 5th anyway.......also the performance has things in its favor too when people see it too....... |
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Post by stephen on Dec 6, 2021 0:16:14 GMT
I still can't see Washington missing the nomination, but as I said elsewhere, he needs the film itself to do well for him to net the third win.
But the weird thing is, we're so set into thinking that Best Actor has a tight foursome (Cumberbatch/DiCaprio/Smith/Washington) so early and the fifth slot is what's up for grabs, that I think there might be a surprise snub if one or two performances on the bubble get a surge of passion at the right time.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 6, 2021 0:21:19 GMT
I’m not predicting Washington to miss or anything but he’s certainly not a lock at this point and it’s not out of the realm that he misses. I personally think he’s safely 3rd right now after Smith and Cumberbatch but it’s yet to be seen if ToM is only a critics darling and not embraced by the industry awards.
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Post by Mattsby on Dec 6, 2021 0:33:52 GMT
I think Denzel's crucial hurdle is SAG..... They start voting tomorrow. Voting ends before Macbeth drops on Apple. And A24 are horrible with screeners/screenings. Actors love Denzel but SAG is a random pool and B&W Shakespeare will turn off a third of 'em automatically. If Denz misses, he might lose the buzz he's gotta keep up ("a must see perf") and open the running field for Garfield, Cage, Cooper- whoever, to steal his Oscar nom.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 6, 2021 0:56:36 GMT
Nothing makes Stephen's comment yesterday about bias influencing predictions more pertinent than seeing pupdurcs still trying to convince others (and let's be real, himself probably) that Washington can win, or that he's safer than Cumberbatch |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 6, 2021 1:07:31 GMT
Nothing makes Stephen's comment yesterday about bias influencing predictions more pertinent than seeing pupdurcs still trying to convince others (and let's be real, himself probably) that Washington can win, or that he's safer than Cumberbatch Hurrr-hurr....my "bias' about Nicole Kidman in Being The Ricardos steered me correct when 99% of people here were dead wrong (as they didn't seem to understand what she was actually capable of. And I did). I get things right. A lot. Even with my supposed "bias". Sleep on that myhynson27. I've played this silly game before. I told everyone after I saw Washington in Roman J Israel that there is no way he's missing for that transformational performance, even with a film itself that was considered DOA. I got the same "bias stan" nonsense from people who don't fully understand what they are talking about. All the keyboard Oscar "experts" didn't seem to understand Denzel 's stature with the Academy was such that he could easily get nodded for that film. So many people who seem to think they are experts on Hollywood and the industry didn't get that Washington is not just another actor to the Academy. He has got a fanbase within that body. They don't need to like his films to nominate him. He does something remotely "prestige" and they will watch it and more often than not nominate him.I think he can still easily surge back to a frontrunner position with The Tragedy Of Macbeth with the level of acclaim his performance and the film has gotten, if his campaign plays it's cards correctly. Easily.The fact that no one seems to have learned their lesson in regards to this is astounding to me. It's like people enjoy repeating their mistakes.But hey-ho, I'll likely be right again (and people like you will then say it was obvious all along ), and then you can cry about my "bias" next time it comes round. Rinse, repeat. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 6, 2021 1:28:10 GMT
Nothing makes Stephen's comment yesterday about bias influencing predictions more pertinent than seeing pupdurcs still trying to convince others (and let's be real, himself probably) that Washington can win, or that he's safer than Cumberbatch Hurrr-hurr....my "bias' about Nicole Kidman in Being The Ricardos steered me correct when 99% of people here were dead wrong (as they didn't seem to understand what she was actually capable of. And I did). I get things right. A lot. Even with my supposed "bias". Sleep on that myhynson27. I've played this silly game before. I told everyone after I saw Washington in Roman J Israel that there is no way he's missing for that transformational performance, even with a film itself that was considered DOA. I got the same "bias stan" nonsense from people who don't fully understand what they are talking about. So many people who seem to think they are experts on Hollywood and the industry didn't get that Washington is not just another actor to the Academy. He has got a fanbase within that body. They don't need to like his films to nominate him. He does something remotely "prestige" and they will watch it and more often than not nominate him.I think he can still easily surge back to a frontrunner position with The Tragedy Of Macbeth with the level of acclaim his performance and the film has gotten, if his campaign plays it's cards correctly. Easily.The fact that no one seems to have learned their lesson in regards to this is astounding to me. It's like people enjoy repeating their mistakes.But hey-ho, I'll likely be right again (and people like you will then say it was obvious all along ), and then you can cry about my "bias" next time it comes round. Rinse, repeat. Sure, your bias ends up aligning with being correct some of the times but also being wrong just as much. Or are you just going to ignore all your Lindo is a lock to win posts from last year or how you were still convinced Viola Davis would win leading into Oscar night? Or Kidman winning an Emmy for the Undoing? Nice of you to cherry-pick your predictions you were right about the same way you do with tweets that support whatever narrative you are pushing. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 6, 2021 1:31:35 GMT
Hurrr-hurr....my "bias' about Nicole Kidman in Being The Ricardos steered me correct when 99% of people here were dead wrong (as they didn't seem to understand what she was actually capable of. And I did). I get things right. A lot. Even with my supposed "bias". Sleep on that myhynson27. I've played this silly game before. I told everyone after I saw Washington in Roman J Israel that there is no way he's missing for that transformational performance, even with a film itself that was considered DOA. I got the same "bias stan" nonsense from people who don't fully understand what they are talking about. So many people who seem to think they are experts on Hollywood and the industry didn't get that Washington is not just another actor to the Academy. He has got a fanbase within that body. They don't need to like his films to nominate him. He does something remotely "prestige" and they will watch it and more often than not nominate him.I think he can still easily surge back to a frontrunner position with The Tragedy Of Macbeth with the level of acclaim his performance and the film has gotten, if his campaign plays it's cards correctly. Easily.The fact that no one seems to have learned their lesson in regards to this is astounding to me. It's like people enjoy repeating their mistakes.But hey-ho, I'll likely be right again (and people like you will then say it was obvious all along ), and then you can cry about my "bias" next time it comes round. Rinse, repeat. Sure, your bias ends up aligning with being correct some of the times but also being wrong just as much. Or are you just going to ignore all your Lindo is a lock to win posts from last year or how you were still convinced Viola Davis would win leading into Oscar night? Or Kidman winning an Emmy for the Undoing? Nice of you to cherry-pick your predictions you were right about the same way you do with tweets that support whatever narrative you are pushing. When the fuck did I say Delroy Lindo was a lock to win?  And I haven't got any bias towards Lindo. Or Viola Davis. They are good actors to me, but I wouldn't say I'm a super-fan of either of them. My predictions for Davis had nothing to do with "bias", and everything to do with her industry stature, transformational nature of the role, stellar reviews and the fact that she felt like a two-time winner in the making. It was an objective (and good) call that didn't pan out. Shit happens. So what are you talking about. I bother you that much that you are just going to start making stuff up about me now. But hey, saying any old bullshit against me will get you some cheap n' easy likes, so well done you! You people crack me up!!!!!! I get predictions wrong like everyone else, but I'm right about a lot of things. It is what it is. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 6, 2021 3:00:08 GMT
I’m not predicting Washington to miss or anything but he’s certainly not a lock at this point and it’s not out of the realm that he misses. I personally think he’s safely 3rd right now after Smith and Cumberbatch but it’s yet to be seen if ToM is only a critics darling and not embraced by the industry awards. Best Actor is not nearly competitive enough for Denzel Washington to miss. He’s never needed a strong industry film before, so I’m not sure why you think that it will matter much? |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 6, 2021 13:04:38 GMT
I’m not predicting Washington to miss or anything but he’s certainly not a lock at this point and it’s not out of the realm that he misses. I personally think he’s safely 3rd right now after Smith and Cumberbatch but it’s yet to be seen if ToM is only a critics darling and not embraced by the industry awards. Best Actor is not nearly competitive enough for Denzel Washington to miss. He’s never needed a strong industry film before, so I’m not sure why you think that it will matter much? Well I’m not predicting him to miss, I was just saying I don’t think he’s a 100% lock and speculated that if he missed that could be a reason. And I guess I think Best Actor can end up a lot more competitive than you do. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 6, 2021 13:12:20 GMT
Best Actor is not nearly competitive enough for Denzel Washington to miss. He’s never needed a strong industry film before, so I’m not sure why you think that it will matter much? Well I’m not predicting him to miss, I was just saying I don’t think he’s a 100% lock and speculated that if he missed that could be a reason. And I guess I think Best Actor can end up a lot more competitive than you do.Not only this ^ - but there is quite a gap between what is "really" competitive and "message board competitive" - I mean a lot of people have flat out written off Cyrano, Tick.......Tick.........Boom.......C'Mon, C'Mon as BP contenders in message board-land.......but all of those are high 80s or higher on RT..........if ANY of them get in the BA race becomes much closer..........and that still leaves out DiCaprio who is almost agreed upon as "likely" to get in..........doesn't account for Cooper who they do love (movie is low 80s RT atm)............... and Bardem who may be in a BP nodded movie. It's not only competitive.........you almost have to willingly lie to yourself to say it's not competetive........... |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 6, 2021 16:38:32 GMT
Best Actor is not nearly competitive enough for Denzel Washington to miss. He’s never needed a strong industry film before, so I’m not sure why you think that it will matter much? Well I’m not predicting him to miss, I was just saying I don’t think he’s a 100% lock and speculated that if he missed that could be a reason. And I guess I think Best Actor can end up a lot more competitive than you do. I think he is in either 3rd or 4th right now but this year isn’t particularly deep so I don’t think he is in too much trouble. |
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Post by franklin on Dec 10, 2021 17:10:07 GMT
1. Will Smith
2. Benedict Cumberbatch
3. Andrew Garfield
4. Denzel Washington
5. Fighting for the fifth spot: Peter Dinklage, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Joaquin Phoenix.
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 18:05:32 GMT
1. Will Smith 2. Benedict Cumberbatch 3. Andrew Garfield 4. Denzel Washington 5. Fighting for the fifth spot: Peter Dinklage, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Joaquin Phoenix. Yeah, that 5th spot is tough to predict. Something crazy is going to happen there. |
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Post by Mattsby on Dec 10, 2021 20:53:34 GMT
Deadline --  |
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Post by stephen on Dec 10, 2021 20:58:28 GMT
Deadline --  |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 10, 2021 21:21:16 GMT
Stop getting my hopes up. Nothing would make me happier than Cage getting nominated for Pig.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 11, 2021 18:44:48 GMT
so after seeing Pig I'm less convinced of Cage's chances. It's such an understated role in a dark and understated (but pretty wonderful) film. Not something I'd peg as an Oscar nominee in any category ever. Would like to be wrong but Cage is the darkest of dark horses. I mean Sandler and Hawke were explosive in Uncut Gems and First Reformed and they freaking missed.  anyways, I'm sticking with my five: Benedict Cumberbatch Peter Dinklage (#5) Andrew Garfield Will Smith (#1) Denzel Washington DiCaprio, Phoenix and Cage are alternates but no one else really feels in the race. Much less wide open than the other categories. Dinklage feels the most vulnerable but 6-8 all have their own unique challenges. Phoenix isn't performing as well with the critics as I thought (not that the critics even mean that much, but I'd clock Phoenix as a likelier contender with the critics than the industry and so far he's been coming up short), DiCaprio's movie is getting mixed reviews and is likely out of the top-line categories, and Cage is just very understated and indie. Cooper I'm not clocking as even a contender until he starts getting noms. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 13, 2021 18:49:10 GMT
The more Cage pops up everywhere the more he fits the narrative of the critics darling that misses an Oscar nom.
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Post by quetee on Dec 13, 2021 19:47:02 GMT
It appears Andrew is dragging the movie along with him . I don't think it scores BP but if it does... watch out.
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