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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 28, 2021 13:43:51 GMT
Not really seeing how anyone can predict Cooper - just yet - unless Nightmare Alley doesn't perform for him as a lead at all (possible, screens like in a day or two) so they "need" to nominate him there. I mean a few days ago - DAYS for fncksake - this board was jizzing over Haim in Lead Actress - maybe I'm wrong and LP performs really well with multiple nods but I don't see it ............just yet. The LP love is from people reading message boards / Gold Derby and also Auteur Jizzing - all of that is sorta like Film Twitter but less youthful & sexy Bernthal is merely passable in KR - he doesn't deserve it - to me - but if he gets in - like I said before that's a testament to Smith's awesome pull in this role .... What's so difficult to see about people predicting Cooper here? Judging from the reviews/reactions, it's an incredibly colorful and memorable part that makes an impression even with its limited screentime which is kinda what really counts in this category. Which this year seems fairly barren. Cooper is an AMPAS darling. Licorice Pizza is already one of the most acclaimed films of the year (why did you omit the critical raves in your description of LP love?). Plus Cooper's gonna have two big movies in the game during the season which may help him in both categories. And what's so baffling about the board 'jizzing' over Haim (I suppose that means 'confidently predicting?'). She's raved beyond high heavens even by those few who are not sure about the movie with everyone mentioning that it's impossible not to be completely won over and charmed by her. We all know that it's a fairly decent recipe for a potential inclusion in the nomination pool. I know you're in the tank for Gucci (bump up your rating from a 7 for god's sake ) but doubting LP of all films - a movie with incredible notices that everyone keeps describing as PTA's most accessible and joyful in years (not to mention that it's partially about the industry which AMPAS loves) seems like a weird way to go at this point. Oh I could see them both getting in Cooper & Haim - my point was on Nov 28 I don't see it yet exactly - he has like 8 minutes in LP (right?) and Haim well - in a stacked catgory - people took to those "raves" to heart awfully quick for a director (I love) who couldn't get Krieps nodded - not impossible just skeptical. If she gets in over Kidman, Stewart , Cruz - even Chastain, Gaga, Colman, and others ............well, I'd be surprised atm that's all. Good for her....... It might be wise to just wait a day or so on exactly what kind of a year Cooper has actually had before I'd pick him personally either ........ I'm not in the tank for HoG - quite the contrary - apologize, re-read my posts and apologize! - I command you to do so! - and not only for today's Poseidon Adventure Poll - I have it down for 0 above the line nods - possibly 0 nods at all even - I mean it isn't a meritocracy.........or a pacinoyesocracy which obviously in a perfect world it totally should be ......
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Post by JangoB on Nov 28, 2021 13:51:50 GMT
What's so difficult to see about people predicting Cooper here? Judging from the reviews/reactions, it's an incredibly colorful and memorable part that makes an impression even with its limited screentime which is kinda what really counts in this category. Which this year seems fairly barren. Cooper is an AMPAS darling. Licorice Pizza is already one of the most acclaimed films of the year (why did you omit the critical raves in your description of LP love?). Plus Cooper's gonna have two big movies in the game during the season which may help him in both categories. And what's so baffling about the board 'jizzing' over Haim (I suppose that means 'confidently predicting?'). She's raved beyond high heavens even by those few who are not sure about the movie with everyone mentioning that it's impossible not to be completely won over and charmed by her. We all know that it's a fairly decent recipe for a potential inclusion in the nomination pool. I know you're in the tank for Gucci (bump up your rating from a 7 for god's sake ) but doubting LP of all films - a movie with incredible notices that everyone keeps describing as PTA's most accessible and joyful in years (not to mention that it's partially about the industry which AMPAS loves) seems like a weird way to go at this point. Oh I could see them both getting in Cooper & Haim - my point was on Nov 28 I don't see it yet exactly - he has like 8 minutes in LP (right?) and Haim well - in a stacked catgory - people took to those "raves" to heart awfully quick for a director (I love) who couldn't get Krieps nodded - not impossible just skeptical. If she gets in over Kidman, Stewart , Cruz - even Chastain, Gaga, Colman, and others ............well, I'd be surprised atm that's all. Good for her....... It might be wise to just wait a day or so on exactly what kind of a year Cooper has actually had before I'd pick him personally either ........ I'm not in the tank for HoG - quite the contrary - apologize, re-read my posts and apologize! - I command you to do so! - and not only for today's Poseidon Adventure Poll - I have it down for 0 above the line nods - possibly 0 nods at all even - I mean it isn't a meritocracy.........or a pacinoyesocracy which obviously in a perfect world it totally should be ...... I thought about the running time as a hindrance for Cooper but at the same time performances like Rockwell in "Vice", Ali in "Moonlight" or Elliott in "ASIB" come to mind. If the turn is memorable enough and the film is big enough, the screentime shouldn't matter too much. Especially in a dire year for the category. Haim's path is more difficult due to BA being packed but I can see her making it if she's that much of a heart-stealer as she's described. Oh I didn't mean that you were predicting Gucci for everything. I meant that you're in the tank for it as a movie, rooting for it! And I just know that if I were planning to see a movie 3 times in the theatres, I'd give it something higher than a 7/10
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 28, 2021 14:00:36 GMT
Oh I could see them both getting in Cooper & Haim - my point was on Nov 28 I don't see it yet exactly - he has like 8 minutes in LP (right?) and Haim well - in a stacked catgory - people took to those "raves" to heart awfully quick for a director (I love) who couldn't get Krieps nodded - not impossible just skeptical. If she gets in over Kidman, Stewart , Cruz - even Chastain, Gaga, Colman, and others ............well, I'd be surprised atm that's all. Good for her....... It might be wise to just wait a day or so on exactly what kind of a year Cooper has actually had before I'd pick him personally either ........ I'm not in the tank for HoG - quite the contrary - apologize, re-read my posts and apologize! - I command you to do so! - and not only for today's Poseidon Adventure Poll - I have it down for 0 above the line nods - possibly 0 nods at all even - I mean it isn't a meritocracy.........or a pacinoyesocracy which obviously in a perfect world it totally should be ...... I thought about the running time as a hindrance for Cooper but at the same time performances like Rockwell in "Vice", Ali in "Moonlight" or Elliott in "ASIB" come to mind. If the turn is memorable enough and the film is big enough, the screentime shouldn't matter too much. Especially in a dire year for the category. I'll say this for him - if he pulls of double nods in this year - this is quite a year for male acting feats with Washington being the first American Shakesperean male nod in 70 years (!), DiCap record setting 4th straight nod (!!) and Cooper pulling off double nods - only done twice prior for men - in a stacked year (at least in a year that's "potentially nominee stacked" anyway - I mean we say it's "dire" but there are easily 5 nominees they could get no sweat without him ...........so it's "stacked" in a way.....). Not sure which of those 3 things is more impressive tbh..........watch them all miss ..........
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 28, 2021 14:02:03 GMT
Whatever small amount of buzz exists now becomes almost completely irrelevant as soon as people start winning awards. In February people going to remember who had FYC ads in november? At this point last year the “front runners” based off of “buzz” were Amanda Seyfried and Leslie Odom Jr and we didn’t even think Judas was coming out in time and basically nobody in America had seen The Father. Seyfried and Odom Jr. still got nominated though, and to be honest, I don't remember them ever actually being the frontrunners for the win. The Father and Judas are two totally different examples, because like you said, they hadn't really been seen yet. They were on the horizon, and we knew they had potential (someone here predicted Hopkins 14 months in advance ). The Humans has just come and gone, no one is talking about it. There are at least like 10 contenders in potential BP nominees that are going to completely overshadow him. Yes anything is possible, but I might be more confident about Jenkins missing than even Chastain and Dowd. They were definitely front runners at this time but the point I’m making is it doesn’t matter who has buzz right now. Just when people are voting.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 29, 2021 0:29:04 GMT
What's so difficult to see about people predicting Cooper here? Judging from the reviews/reactions, it's an incredibly colorful and memorable part that makes an impression even with its limited screentime which is kinda what really counts in this category. Which this year seems fairly barren. Cooper is an AMPAS darling. Licorice Pizza is already one of the most acclaimed films of the year (why did you omit the critical raves in your description of LP love?). Plus Cooper's gonna have two big movies in the game during the season which may help him in both categories. And what's so baffling about the board 'jizzing' over Haim (I suppose that means 'confidently predicting?'). She's raved beyond high heavens even by those few who are not sure about the movie with everyone mentioning that it's impossible not to be completely won over and charmed by her. We all know that it's a fairly decent recipe for a potential inclusion in the nomination pool. I know you're in the tank for Gucci (bump up your rating from a 7 for god's sake ) but doubting LP of all films - a movie with incredible notices that everyone keeps describing as PTA's most accessible and joyful in years (not to mention that it's partially about the industry which AMPAS loves) seems like a weird way to go at this point. people took to those "raves" to heart awfully quick for a director (I love) who couldn't get Krieps nodded Haim isn't acting opposite DDL though, and the movie seems to be mostly her show from what I've read. I'd also add that 5 out of PTA's 8 other films have received acting nominations (3 out of his last 4). I thought it annoyed you when people wait for reactions to make predictions...
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 29, 2021 1:57:05 GMT
people took to those "raves" to heart awfully quick for a director (I love) who couldn't get Krieps nodded Haim isn't acting opposite DDL though, and the movie seems to be mostly her show from what I've read. I'd also add that 5 out of PTA's 8 other films have received acting nominations (3 out of his last 4). I thought it annoyed you when people wait for reactions to make predictions... - Now THAT's true ^ - I really do hate that - so I should say good for these guys for not playing it safe ....... I'd gently say though that 5 of his 8 films have received 0 acting nods for females in lead (iirc ?) no matter who they are acting opposite - DDL or anybody else.........and again I am not sold on Alana - or this movie - as a big Oscar player yet - especially not today when one of her competitors opened her movie to a 20 million+ weekend ........and I don't have that competitor of hers in for a nod either personally........it's just that tough a category............but I'm rooting for Alana and look forward to seeing her in it. For those who really know their pacinoyes posting history - I actually picked Haim as one of my favorite music videos for their song The Wire (in the Favorite Music Video thread - April 2020 (!) - basically for the band's whole acting in that video which was before she was announced as even being in Licorice Pizza - so if she does get nodded.......... I will then turn around and take credit for the whole idea of casting her in the first place just like the cynical egoist bastard y'all know and love.... )
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 29, 2021 5:08:34 GMT
Haim isn't acting opposite DDL though, and the movie seems to be mostly her show from what I've read. I'd also add that 5 out of PTA's 8 other films have received acting nominations (3 out of his last 4). I'd gently say though that 5 of his 8 films have received 0 acting nods for females in lead (iirc ?) no matter who they are acting opposite - DDL or anybody else Phantom Thread is the only film of his that could have plausibly been nominated for lead actress though so that's not exactly fair.... all his other female roles are supporting or part of a large ensemble (Watson in PDL is maybe the closest thing, but that movie only managed to snag a GG nom for Sandler anyway). You could even argue that since this is only the second time we've seen a PTA film with an unambiguous female lead (and the first one to get the lion's share of critical attention), voters might recognize that and want to throw their support Haim's way...
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 29, 2021 10:40:28 GMT
I'd gently say though that 5 of his 8 films have received 0 acting nods for females in lead (iirc ?) no matter who they are acting opposite - DDL or anybody else Phantom Thread is the only film of his that could have plausibly been nominated for lead actress though so that's not exactly fair.... You could even argue that since this is only the second time we've seen a PTA film with an unambiguous female lead (and the first one to get the lion's share of critical attention), voters might recognize that and want to throw their support Haim's way... Well, one scenario started as "5 of his previous 8 movies got acting nominations" which sounds really impressive but.......... another scenario says "0 for 1" (in female leads, plausibly, arguably) which isn't nearly as impressive ..........and then it's "0 for 0" in directing females - in leads - who are making their debut in the most stacked year in a long time. So.......it's never "exactly fair" though: “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” Now I'm not swayed by any of those PTA Truths / Lies myself.......... atm at least.............but yes, you could even argue Alana Haim might get in for that reason......that's not unreasonable
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 29, 2021 22:09:23 GMT
Phantom Thread is the only film of his that could have plausibly been nominated for lead actress though so that's not exactly fair.... You could even argue that since this is only the second time we've seen a PTA film with an unambiguous female lead (and the first one to get the lion's share of critical attention), voters might recognize that and want to throw their support Haim's way... Well, one scenario started as "5 of his previous 8 movies got acting nominations" which sounds really impressive but.......... another scenario says "0 for 1" (in female leads, plausibly, arguably) which isn't nearly as impressive ..........and then it's "0 for 0" in directing females - in leads - who are making their debut in the most stacked year in a long time. So.......it's never "exactly fair" though: “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” Now I'm not swayed by any of those PTA Truths / Lies myself.......... atm at least.............but yes, you could even argue Alana Haim might get in for that reason......that's not unreasonable I think it's reasonable to doubt Haim because it's her acting debut and it's a stacked year, but that's a different argument from the original point which was about how PTA couldn't get his last female lead nominated and therefore we shouldn't be so quick to take Haim's raves to heart..... just saying it's odd to use his track record for getting nominations for female leads against him when Krieps is the only female lead in his entire filmography to have been in competition AND she had to share the spotlight with DDL. 0 for 1 in female leads may not be impressive, but it's also not a particularly significant point of reference - if it were "0 for 5," then yes.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 29, 2021 23:26:36 GMT
as of 11/27
Bradley Cooper Jamie Dornan Ciaran Hinds Jared Leto Kodi Smit-McPhee
not sure if it's gonna be Hinds or Dornan so going with both. Smit-McPhee is a shoo-in, Cooper and Leto seem like the kind of loud and showboaty (don't mean that in a negative way) the Academy usually goes for and they both have have lots of clout. Having not seen Gucci yet, I'm assuming Leto will have a harder time than Cooper because all indications are that Licorice Pizza is going to be a huge hit and it doesn't seem likely it wouldn't score any acting noms, so I'd put Leto at #5 at the moment.
but this far out I still don't see any other major threats. Possibly Pacino, Jenkins, Isaacs, Simmons, Hawkins... but this race feels a less wide open than actress and actor. Obviously some left-field shenanigans are always possible (Stanfield last year, Rockwell and de Tavira in 2018) or some sleeper contenders no one's talking about, but this race looks the least competitive of the four acting categories rn.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 11, 2021 19:30:54 GMT
12/11 and my only change is switching out Leto for Kotsur. Really have no idea about this category apart from Smit-McPhee. Will both Belfast men get in? Is the HoG reception too chilly for Leto or Pacino to get in? Will Cooper be excluded for having so little screentime? Only Smit-McPhee feels 100% safe.
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Post by franklin on Dec 12, 2021 13:02:21 GMT
Cooper won't get in, despite Licorice Pizza being among the top 3 BP contenders, there are simply better, weightier, and more talked about performances for him to get in. The competition in that category is packed.
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee 2. Ciaran Hinds 3. Jamie Dornan 4. Mike Faist 5. Jon Bernthal
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2021 13:26:06 GMT
Cooper won't get in, despite Licorice Pizza being among the top 3 BP contenders, there are simply better, weightier, and more talked about performances for him to get in. The competition in that category is packed. 1. Kodi Smit-McPhee 2. Ciaran Hinds 3. Jamie Dornan 4. Mike Faist 5. Jon Bernthal Cooper has at least two of those things over Bernthal
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 25, 2021 2:06:53 GMT
I will do Supporting Actor as well:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog - Critics Choice and Globe nominee, won NY and LA 2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast - Critics Choice and Globe nominee, won NBR 3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast - Critics Choice and Globe nominee 4. Troy Kotsur, CODA - Critics Choice and Globe nominee 5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza - Pure instinct. Scene-stealing performance in one of the most popular film of the year.
Ben Affleck, JK Simmons, and Jared Leto are very much in play here.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 25, 2021 2:43:19 GMT
really think Faist might be in play here. With Leto's performance being somewhat divisive and Cooper having so little screentime and West Side Story dropping at the right time, that's a prime opportunity for Faist to slip in if they really go for the movie.
What I want to know is who gets that other slot, Jamie Dornan for a pretty nondescript performance that pales in comparison to Hinds's, or J.K. Simmons. By all rights Dornan should be vulnerable but let's see if he sticks it out.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 25, 2021 3:29:55 GMT
I'm not predicting him just yet, but Plemons coat-tailing wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 25, 2021 8:43:49 GMT
I'm not predicting him just yet, but Plemons coat-tailing wouldn't surprise me at all. Sorta getting that feeling too. In a Harrelson-Billboards kind of way.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Dec 25, 2021 15:09:48 GMT
I'm not predicting him just yet, but Plemons coat-tailing wouldn't surprise me at all. Sorta getting that feeling too. In a Harrelson-Billboards kind of way. Different situation, Harrelson had a lot more to do, plus he was a 2x nominee.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 12, 2022 23:26:23 GMT
This is where I am right now:
- Koda Spekz, The Power of the Dog - Ciaran Hinds, Belfast - Troy Kotsur, CODA - Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza - Jared Leto, House of Gucci
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 12, 2022 23:29:27 GMT
Cooper Hinds Kotsur Leto Smit-McPhee
I think Kotsur is our winner at SAG and at the Oscars.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 13, 2022 3:37:15 GMT
Cooper won't get in, despite Licorice Pizza being among the top 3 BP contenders, there are simply better, weightier, and more talked about performances for him to get in. The competition in that category is packed. 1. Kodi Smit-McPhee 2. Ciaran Hinds 3. Jamie Dornan 4. Mike Faist 5. Jon Bernthal Yeah so about that...
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