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Post by Mattsby on Apr 27, 2021 2:15:25 GMT
Hey what, we're almost halfway thru the year! We started some prediction threads last year in February.
Some stats to look out for - Dafoe is looking to tie the category record (4) - can he do it? French Dispatch, Card Counter, Nightmare Alley, or The Northman which would be my pick bc he could be perfect as a Fool type character. Pacino, currently tied, is looking to break the record which is fascinating bc no-one thinks of him as a "supporting actor" - he's gotta strong role in Gucci, which may be all the talk of the season so he's looking in, or will a "transformed" Jared Leto outshine? We've had three multi-nodded films in the last four years (Billboards, Irishman, Judas) so don't count it out.
Other possible doubles : Soggy Bottom (Bradley Cooper, Benny Safdie), The Last Duel? The Harder They Fall?
my predix:
Pacino, House of Gucci
Willem Dafoe, The Northman
Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
Brian Tyree Henry, Red White and Water
Matt Damon, The Last Duel
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 2:32:12 GMT
I've heard Claes Bang has the best supporting role in The Northman.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 2:38:14 GMT
Al Pacino- House of Gucci
Bradley Cooper- Soggy Bottom
Cirian Hinds- Belfast
John David Washington- Canterbury Glass
Richard Jenkins- The Humans
Alts:
Adam Driver- The Last Duel
Claes Bang- The Northman
Rob Morgan- Don't Look Up
Timothee Chalamet- The French Dispatch
Willem Dafoe- Nightmare Alley
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 27, 2021 2:45:55 GMT
Christian Bale, Untitled David O. Russell Project - I have a lot of doubts about this, but they really love Bale, and it seems like he’s due another nomination after missing for Ford v. Ferrari. Not sure if he’s lead or supporting, but maybe supporting since I think he didn’t film as long as John David Washington.
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast - Not really sure about Belfast. On paper it seems like it could be big, but it also feels like something that we’ll be “this has Oscar buzz?!?” disappointment, but I don’t know what else to go with.
Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley - He also has The Humans, so maybe it will finally be his time.
Al Pacino, House of Gucci - For now I’m going to predict the film for a lot.
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog - It feels like it’s his time for a welcome to the club nomination.
Wildcards:
Kelvin Harrison Jr., Cyrano - I’ve seen a lot of buzz around Peter Dinklage, not so much about Harrison, but if Dinklage goes pretty far, I could see Harrison Jr. coattailing.
Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter - Could be the kind of veteran role Dafoe needs to finally win an Oscar, but then Ethan Hawks couldn’t even get nominated in a weak year with the most lauded leading male performance of the year, so who knows.
Adam Driver, The Last Duel - He’s got three potential baity films. They could all disappoint though, but if he at least gets enough praise for all of them, I think that it might be easier for him to win for what might be a borderline leading role, just based on people who’ve read the novel and what little is known of the film, because I’m not sure he can win in leading for House of Gucci since it looks like Lady Gaga might have the baitier role, and Annette is probably just going to be too weird.
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Drish
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Post by Drish on Apr 27, 2021 2:48:26 GMT
My god Adam Driver is on fire!
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 4:02:53 GMT
Christian Bale, Untitled David O. Russell Project - I have a lot of doubts about this, but they really love Bale, and it seems like he’s due another nomination after missing for Ford v. Ferrari. Not sure if he’s lead or supporting, but maybe supporting since I think he didn’t film as long as John David Washington. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast - Not really sure about Belfast. On paper it seems like it could be big, but it also feels like something that we’ll be “this has Oscar buzz?!?” disappointment, but I don’t know what else to go with. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley - He also has The Humans, so maybe it will finally be his time. Al Pacino, House of Gucci - For now I’m going to predict the film for a lot. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog - It feels like it’s his time for a welcome to the club nomination. Wildcards: Kelvin Harrison Jr., Cyrano - I’ve seen a lot of buzz around Peter Dinklage, not so much about Harrison, but if Dinklage goes pretty far, I could see Harrison Jr. coattailing. Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter - Could be the kind of veteran role Dafoe needs to finally win an Oscar, but then Ethan Hawks couldn’t even get nominated in a weak year with the most lauded leading male performance of the year, so who knows. Adam Driver, The Last Duel - He’s got three potential baity films. They could all disappoint though, but if he at least gets enough praise for all of them, I think that it might be easier for him to win for what might be a borderline leading role, just based on people who’ve read the novel and what little is known of the film, because I’m not sure he can win in leading for House of Gucci since it looks like Lady Gaga might have the baitier role, and Annette is probably just going to be too weird. Oooh, Plemons is a good call. Especially if the film goes to Cannes and Venice like rumoured. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 27, 2021 5:24:48 GMT
I'm gonna say Cooper for the final 5, just to see him lose once again!!
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 27, 2021 12:32:48 GMT
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (Unless he is lead, then villainous Cumberbatch takes his place)
John David Washington, Canterbury Glass/Amsterdam (Unless he is lead, then Bale takes his place)
Adam Driver, The Last Duel
Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
Al Pacino, The House of Gucci
HM:
Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water. He has to break in one day and this could be very powerful and baity for him.
I feel like the men from Blonde could upset here. We've got Garret Dillahunt as "JFK", Adrien Brody as "Arthur Miller" and Bobby Cannavale as "Joe DiMaggio".
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Post by pacinoyes on Apr 27, 2021 12:49:54 GMT
Tom Hanks, Untitled Elvis Biopic (Unless he is lead, then Butler takes his place) June 3, 2022 release date for this one........ |
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Post by stephen on Apr 27, 2021 12:51:55 GMT
I've heard Claes Bang has the best supporting role in The Northman. Spill your tea, Sonny Jim. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 27, 2021 12:52:48 GMT
Bobby Cannavale as "Babe Ruth". Joe DiMaggio. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 27, 2021 13:33:43 GMT
Bobby Cannavale as "Babe Ruth". Joe DiMaggio. Oops. My bad. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 27, 2021 13:34:44 GMT
Tom Hanks, Untitled Elvis Biopic (Unless he is lead, then Butler takes his place) June 3, 2022 release date for this one........ Oh, I forgot it had been bumped from Nov. 5, 2021 . Thanks. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 13:58:16 GMT
I've heard Claes Bang has the best supporting role in The Northman. Spill your tea, Sonny Jim. I don't think there's been any screening reports or anything, I just remember someone saying it over on AwardsWorthy. I think it's because he's the villain of the piece. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 27, 2021 14:06:04 GMT
Matt Damon, The Last Duel Isn't the main lead? |
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Post by stephen on Apr 27, 2021 14:09:24 GMT
Spill your tea, Sonny Jim. I don't think there's been any screening reports or anything, I just remember someone saying it over on AwardsWorthy. I think it's because he's the villain of the piece. It would make sense, as he is the Claudius surrogate. |
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Post by Mattsby on Apr 27, 2021 18:21:03 GMT
Matt Damon, The Last Duel Isn't the main lead? I thought so too but the cinematographer described the movie as Rashomon-esque with the perspective jumping from Damon, to Driver, to Jodie Comer. May still go Lead...and I could go w/ Driver instead.... I need someone to box out Leto! |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 4, 2021 11:47:01 GMT
A lot of this comes down to what Jane Campion actually shot for Power Of The Dog which may be the wildcard of the whole year - if you read the book (do it, great book) it's Kodi Smit-McPhee who has the "watch out" role but you could tweak the approach/POV and increase other characters while diminishing him - which I think Campion might have done - (maybe increased Dunst, Plemons?) - and you can even marginalize Cumberbatch who is the actual book lead  - like you could literally tilt it another way and phase out what is on paper an Oscar winning role lead role - it's like Daniel Plainview in a way...... Some of this category is very odd because you don't know how several of the roles will play out and it's July - Pacino may not be a factor until we see a trailer - I mean they seemed to shoot a lot more of House of Gucci after he left (maybe not though because it was so concentrated/intensive?) and Richard Jenkins who has the on-paper possible "winning" role because on stage The Humans won a Tony for his part - and we know exactly how much he's in it too - I didn't see that play but I read it and it's pretty locked in how he can't go into the lead category -......he's a veteran, former nominee, has another movie if this doesn't work anyway and if both work that helps him even more........and the wife role in The Humans is a comparative role to his - like you could get both supporting winners from The Humans - and both of them helping the other. On the other hand.........it's A24........still no date afaik.......and a first time director adapting his own award-winning play (same situation as The Father which of course changed the recent rules for play adaptations but is usually a concern). |
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Post by stephen on Jul 4, 2021 15:35:31 GMT
I know we've been banging on and on about Dafoe here and elsewhere, but the man has The Card Counter out this year and Focus seems to be looking at that as a real contender. He's getting a Walk of Fame star this year, and he's got a banner year ahead with that, The French Dispatch, and Nightmare Alley. Three high-profile films, two of which are strong Best Picture players, and the third is him reteaming with Schrader. Now, Schrader's not exactly an Oscar magnet himself, but he has directed a veteran actor to an Oscar before (James Coburn) and Focus is muzzling him on social media so that he doesn't shoot his mouth off again. Maybe it's not a winning alignment for Willem just yet, but come on, this year seems tailor-made for an anointing. All he needs is to actually have the part.
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Post by franklin on Jul 4, 2021 19:00:14 GMT
1. Willem Dafoe (The Card Counter)
2. Al Pacino (House of Gucci)
3. Jesse Plemons (The Power of The Dog)
4. Richard Jenkins (The Humans)
5. Mark Rylance (Don't Look Up)
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 4, 2021 21:25:48 GMT
1. Willem Dafoe (The Card Counter)
Would love for this to be true ..........and maybe it is .......but this has been seen by regular people at test screenings and I don't think it was getting that kind of heat.......I mean you can't go by that and I'm sure it's been tweaked / improved........ but this comes out September 10th in the US .....so we'll know soon enough
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 5, 2021 0:54:40 GMT
Al Pacino
Benicio del Toro
Jesse Plemons
John David Washington
Richard Jenkins
Adam Driver
Andrew Garfield
Bradley Cooper
Cirian Hinds
Mark Rylance
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jul 5, 2021 1:46:23 GMT
Yeah, I'm not going to really consider The Card Counter an Oscar player until reviews suggest otherwise. But even then, First Reformed didn't manage any acting nominations despite Ethan Hawke pulling off a near sweep of critics awards.
With that said, one of the guys Hawke lost out on a nomination to is Dafoe himself, so I guess you can't really rule him out for a nomination. But I don't think a win is really plausible. Not yet, anyway.
1. Richard Jenkins - The Humans
2. Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
3. Benny Safdie - Soggy Bottom
4. Al Pacino - House of Gucci
5. Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
6. Mark Rylance - Don't Look Up
7. Benicio Del Toro - The French Dispatch
8. Andrew Garfield - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Willem Dafoe - The Card Counter
10. Adam Driver - The Last Duel
Is it just me or is this a weak year for the category? I had to struggle to come with a top 5.
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Post by stephen on Jul 5, 2021 1:49:13 GMT
Yeah, I'm not going to really consider The Card Counter an Oscar player until reviews suggest otherwise. But even then, First Reformed didn't manage any acting nominations despite Ethan Hawke pulling off a near sweep of critics awards. With that said, one of the guys Hawke lost out on a nomination to is Dafoe himself, so I guess you can't really rule him out for a nomination. But I don't think a win is really plausible. Not yet, anyway. 1. Richard Jenkins - The Humans2. Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog3. Benny Safdie - Soggy Bottom4. Al Pacino - House of Gucci5. Ciaran Hinds - BelfastIs it just me or is this a weak year for the category? I had to struggle to come with a top 5. I think this far out, there's a few plausible candidates, but the problem is that we don't know what the big films are going to be. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jul 5, 2021 2:27:10 GMT
I think this far out, there's a few plausible candidates, but the problem is that we don't know what the big films are going to be. Yeah, on-paper contenders drop out and new contenders crop up every year, so it could end up being strong as the year goes on. |
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- like you could literally tilt it another way and phase out what is on paper an Oscar winning role lead role - it's like Daniel Plainview in a way......
