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Post by franklin on Sept 12, 2021 23:09:25 GMT
I already said it in another thread but, i think Penn is basically just a glorified cameo, and Cooper has a brief supporting role (he shot for just a week or something?). So basically if the movie is well received and manages to crack into some categories, Benny Safdie is probably the most likely.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2021 2:29:30 GMT
Jenkins feels like a winner to me but it’s so early.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 13, 2021 2:43:25 GMT
Jenkins feels like a winner to me but it’s so early. The Humans is getting a lot of raves, but some of the reactions make it seem like it’s not really something the Oscars will go for. Plus A24 has C’mon C’mon and The Tragedy of Macbeth which both seem higher profile, and A24 seems to have trouble running more than one campaign. Still I can see him winning for Nightmare Alley. Geez, this category feels so empty even at this stage that other than someone from Licorice Pizza and maybe but probably just wishful thinking House of Gucci, I can see it finally being Jenkins’ time. I could see nominations for Bernthal, Smit-McPhee, and Hinds or Dornan but none of those feel like winners to me at this stage, I feel like the nomination will be the reward and their costars will have more chances of winning.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2021 2:47:15 GMT
Jenkins feels like a winner to me but it’s so early. The Humans is getting a lot of raves, but some of the reactions make it seem like it’s not really something the Oscars will go for. Plus A24 has C’mon C’mon and The Tragedy of Macbeth which both seem higher profile, and A24 seems to have trouble running more than one campaign. Still I can see him winning for Nightmare Alley. Geez, this category feels so empty even at this stage that other than someone from Licorice Pizza and maybe but probably just wishful thinking House of Gucci, I can see it finally being Jenkins’ time. I could see nominations for Bernthal, Smit-McPhee, and Hinds or Dornan but none of those feel like winners to me at this stage, I feel like the nomination will be the reward and their costars will have more chances of winning. I don’t see why they would go for The Father in acting categories but The Humans wouldn’t be considered their kind of film. I’ve seen a couple say he could win. I don’t know about the movie but I’ve seen the play and have no reason to believe these roles won’t go over with the Academy.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2021 4:39:08 GMT
The Humans is getting a lot of raves, but some of the reactions make it seem like it’s not really something the Oscars will go for. Plus A24 has C’mon C’mon and The Tragedy of Macbeth which both seem higher profile, and A24 seems to have trouble running more than one campaign. Still I can see him winning for Nightmare Alley. Geez, this category feels so empty even at this stage that other than someone from Licorice Pizza and maybe but probably just wishful thinking House of Gucci, I can see it finally being Jenkins’ time. I could see nominations for Bernthal, Smit-McPhee, and Hinds or Dornan but none of those feel like winners to me at this stage, I feel like the nomination will be the reward and their costars will have more chances of winning. I don’t see why they would go for The Father in acting categories but The Humans wouldn’t be considered their kind of film. I’ve seen a couple say he could win. I don’t know about the movie but I’ve seen the play and have no reason to believe these roles won’t go over with the Academy. I'm not really feeling the comparison with The Father. I don't really remember any critics saying that The Father left them feeling cold or alienated. The Humans won't end up with reviews as good as The Father, and no one in the film is giving a performance as titanic as Hopkins did. The Father also won screenplay which The Humans won't be able to do. Jenkins and Houdyshell are definitely in contention for a nom, but even that is far from a surefire thing.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2021 4:48:06 GMT
I don’t see why they would go for The Father in acting categories but The Humans wouldn’t be considered their kind of film. I’ve seen a couple say he could win. I don’t know about the movie but I’ve seen the play and have no reason to believe these roles won’t go over with the Academy. I'm not really feeling the comparison with The Father. I don't really remember any critics saying that The Father left them feeling cold or alienated. The Humans won't end up with reviews as good as The Father, and no one in the film is giving a performance as titanic as Hopkins did. The Father also won screenplay which The Humans won't be able to do. Jenkins and Houdyshell are definitely in contention for a nom, but even that is far from a surefire thing. I’ve seen literally one person say they were left cold by it. That’s some cherry picking you are doing there. Performances don’t have to be “titanic” to win in supporting categories… It’s not their responsibility to carry the film.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2021 5:10:27 GMT
I'm not really feeling the comparison with The Father. I don't really remember any critics saying that The Father left them feeling cold or alienated. The Humans won't end up with reviews as good as The Father, and no one in the film is giving a performance as titanic as Hopkins did. The Father also won screenplay which The Humans won't be able to do. Jenkins and Houdyshell are definitely in contention for a nom, but even that is far from a surefire thing. I’ve seen literally one person say they were left cold by it. That’s some cherry picking you are doing there. Performances don’t have to be “titanic” to win in supporting categories… It’s not their responsibility to carry the film. I've definitely seen more than one review/reaction say something like that. No he doesn't have to be 'titanic', but I'm just highlighting that the Academy being raptured by The Father has very little barring on the chance of The Humans. Like I already said, he's definitely in contention, I'm just not feeling a win at the moment, and part of that is because I don't have much faith in the film being a strong contender overall.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2021 5:21:11 GMT
I’ve seen literally one person say they were left cold by it. That’s some cherry picking you are doing there. Performances don’t have to be “titanic” to win in supporting categories… It’s not their responsibility to carry the film. I've definitely seen more than one review/reaction say something like that. No he doesn't have to be 'titanic', but I'm just highlighting that the Academy being raptured by The Father has very little barring on the chance of The Humans. Like I already said, he's definitely in contention, I'm just not feeling a win at the moment, and part of that is because I don't have much faith in the film being a strong contender overall. I mentioned The Father not as an apples to apples comparison but just to show this saying this is not the kind of movie that wins actor awards. It doesn’t need to win another major award to win like The Father did to win a supporting acting award. Judas and Minari won nothing else. Pretty silly to say considering these are Tony winning roles in a year after many performances adapted from chamber piece plays were nominated last year. Who are you predicting to win?
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2021 6:59:45 GMT
I've definitely seen more than one review/reaction say something like that. No he doesn't have to be 'titanic', but I'm just highlighting that the Academy being raptured by The Father has very little barring on the chance of The Humans. Like I already said, he's definitely in contention, I'm just not feeling a win at the moment, and part of that is because I don't have much faith in the film being a strong contender overall. I mentioned The Father not as an apples to apples comparison but just to show this saying this is not the kind of movie that wins actor awards. It doesn’t need to win another major award to win like The Father did to win a supporting acting award. Judas and Minari won nothing else. Pretty silly to say considering these are Tony winning roles in a year after many performances adapted from chamber piece plays were nominated last year. Who are you predicting to win? You make some good points, and I'm not on the complete opposite side of the argument, I just think Jenkins could very well be a lone nod, and I'm not sure if that will be enough for the win. Dornan, Cooper or Smit-McPhee.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 13, 2021 8:27:37 GMT
Jenkins feels like a winner to me but it’s so early. The Humans is getting a lot of raves, but some of the reactions make it seem like it’s not really something the Oscars will go for. Plus A24 has C’mon C’mon and The Tragedy of Macbeth which both seem higher profile, and A24 seems to have trouble running more than one campaign.
Still I can see him winning for Nightmare Alley. Geez, this category feels so empty even at this stage that other than someone from Licorice Pizza and maybe but probably just wishful thinking House of Gucci, I can see it finally being Jenkins’ time. I could see nominations for Bernthal, Smit-McPhee, and Hinds or Dornan but none of those feel like winners to me at this stage, I feel like the nomination will be the reward and their costars will have more chances of winning. I'm not sure A24 can even run ONE campaign That is the unsaid said of the BA race - if they get Washington nodded (possibly likely) and if he wins (less likely but still possible) - it would be solely on the basis of his performance and quite a flex of his star power because they really are a mess with the logistics and game of campaigning.......like I always say - pick a release date for your movies A24, wtf?!? Another studio would have Houdyshell as number 1 in the Supporting actress slot - On the other hand - maybe Corey Hawkins is the big deal in this category?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 13, 2021 13:56:29 GMT
I mentioned The Father not as an apples to apples comparison but just to show this saying this is not the kind of movie that wins actor awards. It doesn’t need to win another major award to win like The Father did to win a supporting acting award. Judas and Minari won nothing else. Pretty silly to say considering these are Tony winning roles in a year after many performances adapted from chamber piece plays were nominated last year. Who are you predicting to win? You make some good points, and I'm not on the complete opposite side of the argument, I just think Jenkins could very well be a lone nod, and I'm not sure if that will be enough for the win. Dornan, Cooper or Smit-McPhee. Cooper I very much get and he is second in my predictions it’s just nobody has seen him and I prefer a known commodity over an unknown. They just don’t often go for younger actors in this category. Kaluuya being a rare exception last year but he already had a nod and had to commit pretty bad category fraud to get it. Jenkins just feels like the perfect blend of age and universally beloved they go for in this category. I guess we will see.
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 24, 2021 20:57:12 GMT
Are there any locks at this point, like the other categories? I still think we'll see Gucci and Licorice Pizza eat up this category. Also very curious about Being the Ricardos........ VARIETY has JK Simmons at #2 in their predix and the first alleged word from one of the preview screenings is that he's MVP? Would they keep Bardem lead to clear room for JK..... or double-up? Also wtf.... is it even being released this year? Amazon announced The Tender Bar in a spot that looked more likely for Ricardos....... also, Variety has Affleck/Tender Bar in their Supp predix ahead of Pacino/Leto etc.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 24, 2021 21:24:39 GMT
Are there any locks at this point, like the other categories? I still think we'll see Gucci and Licorice Pizza eat up this category. Also very curious about Being the Ricardos........ VARIETY has JK Simmons at #2 in their predix and the first alleged word from one of the preview screenings is that he's MVP? Would they keep Bardem lead to clear room for JK..... or double-up? Also wtf.... is it even being released this year? Amazon announced The Tender Bar in a spot that looked more likely for Ricardos....... also, Variety has Affleck/Tender Bar in their Supp predix ahead of Pacino/Leto etc. I don't know much about Simmons but again this is the case of "what can A24 pull off?" - they now have a BP candidate, a BA front-runner (at WORST #2) and several tech awards possibly with Macbeth - they would be wise to try to lock the supporting categories down with Jayne Houdyshell pulling along Richard Jenkins.....The Humans is at 89% but it's the kind of work that has to be campaigned hard and I don't know if they'll bother - they're looking at winning multiple Oscars somewhere else besides The HumansJeff Wells said he heard Bardem is a near lock to win in BSA ...........and they have tested that movie twice - that must be a 2021 film to do that so soon after screening 1 (screening 2 was last night)......there's a lot of internet chatter that Bardem could be run as lead but that would be Delroy Lindo'ing (Copyright 2021 pacinoyes) him - a possibly sure win in Support...........and possibly not nodded in Lead..........people get fired for that stuff. If Cooper gets 2 nods - he may be the first male nominee to not win Lead and be a winner here - as Smith and Washington are going to make an awfully compelling case for the win........
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Post by franklin on Sept 24, 2021 23:03:49 GMT
At this point I'll go like this:
1. Jenkins 2. Smit McPhee 3. Bardem 4. Rylance 5. Affleck
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2021 23:27:23 GMT
Bardem Cooper Dornan Jenkins Smit-McPhee
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Post by morton on Sept 25, 2021 16:20:30 GMT
Are there any locks at this point, like the other categories? I still think we'll see Gucci and Licorice Pizza eat up this category. Also very curious about Being the Ricardos........ VARIETY has JK Simmons at #2 in their predix and the first alleged word from one of the preview screenings is that he's MVP? Would they keep Bardem lead to clear room for JK..... or double-up? Also wtf.... is it even being released this year? Amazon announced The Tender Bar in a spot that looked more likely for Ricardos....... also, Variety has Affleck/Tender Bar in their Supp predix ahead of Pacino/Leto etc. Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I agree on House of Gucci and Licorice Pizza coming in and eating up this category. If not them, it seems we’re not left with much besides Belfast, Smit-McPhee, and I guess coattail nominees like Bernal or lone nominees like Jenkins. After last year, since it really showed how little they care about category fraud, I’m thinking maybe Driver gets pushed down to supporting for one spot for HoG since I don’t think TLD will be a factor. (It’s doing a little better now after Venice, but for the nomination Driver may have a better chance with HoG now.) Then Leto for another spot based on the trailer and him almost getting in last year although the costume designer mentioned Pacino having more costumes, so it could go either way still. Then whoever for Licorice Pizza. Maybe Cooper, maybe Penn, maybe Safdie, or a some kind of combination.
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 28, 2021 20:49:13 GMT
Just wanna grinch it up and add that I don't think Smit-McPhee will come remotely close to a nod. Especially if Ricardos makes release. I know most of the Gold Derby dutz have him in right now but his name ain't gonna beat the flashier standouts of Gucci or Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Ricardos. I've seen the movie and his perf is intentionally strange, sort of effective or eh, without a single standout scene. Idk if the movie will create much passion anyway but it belongs to Cumberbatch who is quite strong and nom-worthy not win-worthy.
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Post by speeders on Sept 28, 2021 22:07:49 GMT
Just wanna grinch it up and add that I don't think Smit-McPhee will come remotely close to a nod. Especially if Ricardos makes release. I know most of the Gold Derby dutz have him in right now but his name ain't gonna beat the flashier standouts of Gucci or Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Ricardos. I've seen the movie and his perf is intentionally strange, sort of effective or eh, without a single standout scene. Idk if the movie will create much passion anyway but it belongs to Cumberbatch who is quite strong and nom-worthy not win-worthy. Completely agree. The moment I saw the film I crossed him off my predictions.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 28, 2021 22:53:29 GMT
Jenkins and Cooper and Leto are already known Oscar commodities so I'm predicting all of them for the time being. After them I have Hawkins because I'm banking on AMPAS going hard for Macbeth. And for the 5th spot I have Plemons just because he seems ripe for a nomination after almost a decade of celebrated work in both TV and film. so it looks like this 1. Jenkins 2. Cooper 3. Leto 4. Hawkins 5. Plemons but these predix are a stab in the dark and I don't follow the prognosticators, does that even need to be said at this point
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Post by notacrook on Sept 28, 2021 23:08:13 GMT
Jenkins and Cooper and Leto are already known Oscar commodities so I'm predicting all of them for the time being. After them I have Hawkins because I'm banking on AMPAS going hard for Macbeth. And for the 5th spot I have Plemons just because he seems ripe for a nomination after almost a decade of celebrated work in both TV and film. so it looks like this 1. Jenkins 2. Cooper 3. Leto 4. Hawkins 5. Plemons but these predix are a stab in the dark and I don't follow the prognosticators, does that even need to be said at this point Having seen the film I think it'd be ridiculous if Plemons was nominated. He does well with what he has, but he really isn't given much at all to do (my one small gripe with an otherwise flawless film). Maybe he could get in with the goodwill he's built over the years, though I still don't think it'll be enough. Smit-McPhee is excellent, but it's a very subdued, unshowy performance, so I think he is also unlikely to get in there.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 28, 2021 23:21:28 GMT
Yeah, there's no way Plemons is getting in. Still feeling pretty confident about a Smit-McPhee nom though.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 28, 2021 23:22:06 GMT
Just wanna grinch it up and add that I don't think Smit-McPhee will come remotely close to a nod. Especially if Ricardos makes release. I know most of the Gold Derby dutz have him in right now but his name ain't gonna beat the flashier standouts of Gucci or Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Ricardos. I've seen the movie and his perf is intentionally strange, sort of effective or eh, without a single standout scene. Idk if the movie will create much passion anyway but it belongs to Cumberbatch who is quite strong and nom-worthy not win-worthy. What makes you say that?
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 28, 2021 23:34:26 GMT
Just wanna grinch it up and add that I don't think Smit-McPhee will come remotely close to a nod. Especially if Ricardos makes release. I know most of the Gold Derby dutz have him in right now but his name ain't gonna beat the flashier standouts of Gucci or Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Ricardos. I've seen the movie and his perf is intentionally strange, sort of effective or eh, without a single standout scene. Idk if the movie will create much passion anyway but it belongs to Cumberbatch who is quite strong and nom-worthy not win-worthy. What makes you say that? As I worded it in the TIFF thread, I think it’s both too good and too unsatisfying (especially the ending) to be a big Oscar player. I just don’t think it’s the kinda movie voters will gather around with passion. There are a lot of starry, catchy movies coming that’ll blur it. But I liked it…and maybe it’ll get some nods? I guess it depends on Netflix and DLU
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 29, 2021 0:11:46 GMT
As I worded it in the TIFF thread, I think it’s both too good and too unsatisfying (especially the ending) to be a big Oscar player. I just don’t think it’s the kinda movie voters will gather around with passion. There are a lot of starry, catchy movies coming that’ll blur it. But I liked it…and maybe it’ll get some nods? I guess it depends on Netflix and DLU Maybe it will get nods?? Yeah, we're on opposite sides of this thing here. I think it easily gets at least like 8 noms.
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Post by speeders on Sept 29, 2021 9:41:04 GMT
As I worded it in the TIFF thread, I think it’s both too good and too unsatisfying (especially the ending) to be a big Oscar player. I just don’t think it’s the kinda movie voters will gather around with passion. There are a lot of starry, catchy movies coming that’ll blur it. But I liked it…and maybe it’ll get some nods? I guess it depends on Netflix and DLU Maybe it will get nods?? Yeah, we're on opposite sides of this thing here. I think it easily gets at least like 8 noms. Have you seen the film?
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