morton
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Post by morton on Jul 5, 2021 2:34:42 GMT
Yeah, I'm not going to really consider The Card Counter an Oscar player until reviews suggest otherwise. But even then, First Reformed didn't manage any acting nominations despite Ethan Hawke pulling off a near sweep of critics awards. With that said, one of the guys Hawke lost out on a nomination to is Dafoe himself, so I guess you can't really rule him out for a nomination. But I don't think a win is really plausible. Not yet, anyway. 1. Richard Jenkins - The Humans2. Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog3. Benny Safdie - Soggy Bottom4. Al Pacino - House of Gucci5. Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
6. Mark Rylance - Don't Look Up
7. Benicio Del Toro - The French Dispatch
8. Andrew Garfield - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Willem Dafoe - The Card Counter
10. Adam Driver - The Last DuelIs it just me or is this a weak year for the category? I had to struggle to come with a top 5. It does to me as well especially compared to Supporting Actress, but I agree with stephen’s point that we don’t know what the big films are going to be. Like I recently heard that Netflix is going to push Tick, Tick Boom! really hard, and that the pundit feels like it could be bigger than Don’t Look Up. Even though it’s about famous playwright/composer Jonathan Larson, I can’t imagine that it will do better awards wise than Don’t Look Up after the early tea on DLU. I could see maybe Andrew Garfield being awarded in supporting for The Eyes of Tammy Faye instead though. Anyhow not much has changed from last time except I think that Richard Jenkins will have a better chance now with The Humans, and Mark Rylance feels like a good bet for his second nomination fo DLU. 1. Richard Jenkins, The Humans 2. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up 3. Al Pacino, House of Gucci 4. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast 5. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog Probably someone from Canterbury Glass, I guess John David Washington since most people have him here, but I still wonder about how well it’s actually going to do. Seems like another American Hustle on paper with how many past nominees/winners, Russell has at every position, but Joy was supposed to be huge too. Anyhow maybe possible double nominations or rewarded here instead of lead if lead is too packed: 1. Adam Driver, The Last Duel - The lack of trailer or really anything is making me nervous. 2. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye - I could see Chastain getting a filler nomination, but not sure Garfield getting in too. 3. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom - I feel like this is going to be a cameo, and that it will be Nightmare Alley or bust for him. Of course I’m often wrong lol.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jul 5, 2021 2:55:56 GMT
It does to me as well especially compared to Supporting Actress, but I agree with stephen’s point that we don’t know what the big films are going to be. Like I recently heard that Netflix is going to push Tick, Tick Boom! really hard, and that the pundit feels like it could be bigger than Don’t Look Up. Even though it’s about famous playwright/composer Jonathan Larson, I can’t imagine that it will do better awards wise than Don’t Look Up after the early tea on DLU. I can imagine Tick, Tick Boom getting better reviews than Don't Look Up, but I don't buy that it will be Netflix's main contender. I think if any Netflix movie can take over from Don't Look Up, it's going to be The Power of the Dog. Yeah, if Tick, Tick Boom is well received and Jessica Chastain becomes a thing for Tammy Faye, I can see Garfield getting pulled in for that one. The thing with Rylance is that I see Streep and DiCaprio as more likely to be nominated, and I don't know if Don't Look Up can get 3 acting nominations. But I do feel like he has a decent shot, which is why I have him 6th. I've decided to not touch Canterbury Glass until we find out a lot more, including when it's going to be released, who the lead and supporting players are, and how much sharpening critics have done with their knives. But if I'm going to be predicting any acting contender from that movie, it's going to be Zoe Saldana first, who is the MVP according to the grapevine. I think Garfield has a better shot in Supporting and Cooper/Driver have a better shot in Lead. My reasons for that are: 1. Cooper has a really strong role and Nightmare Alley is looking like a top 5 contender. I think his role in Soggy Bottom could just be an extended cameo, and I don't see him getting double-nominated. 2. Driver has a banner year with Annette, Gucci, and Duel, and the support generally coalesces into the Lead category when you have such a big year. 3. Garfield, by my estimation, has a couple of middling contenders, so I think he's more likely to get a goodwill Supporting nomination than a Lead nomination for a musical in a year inundated with musicals and no Globes to bolster them.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 5, 2021 3:05:58 GMT
Just backing up what Morton said, I've heard Netflix is pretty high on Tick, Tick, Boom too. The only downside is that they are a little bit worried about LMM fatigue.
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Post by stephen on Jul 12, 2021 19:21:37 GMT
So apparently Mass (which got raves for its ensemble out of Sundance) is running all of its actors supporting, and even though Bleecker Street isn't the best studio to campaign, I think Jason Isaacs and Reed Birney shouldn't be overlooked here.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 9, 2021 13:28:39 GMT
For a second yesterday, I thought Forest Whitaker might have a chance since I saw a few early reactions that praised him in Respect, but reactions quickly went south about the movie. Hudson is probably in, but she’ll likely be fighting for fifth place unless Respect does exceptionally well at the box office. Before Delta, I was optimistic that it would, but with movies becoming even more front-loaded and most sinking like a stone after the first weekend, I’m not sure that enough people are going to rush out and see this opening weekend.
I guess Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar is also a possibility here. I don’t think actors are in a rush to give his first Oscar nomination for acting especially if he’s a lone nomination type of deal, but I guess he’s at least top 10 with how open it seems, imo.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 9, 2021 14:25:03 GMT
Cooper Dornan Driver Jenkins Smit-McPhee
Affleck Garfield Leto Plemons Rylance
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Aug 13, 2021 13:34:33 GMT
For a second yesterday, I thought Forest Whitaker might have a chance since I saw a few early reactions that praised him in Respect, but reactions quickly went south about the movie. Hudson is probably in, but she’ll likely be fighting for fifth place unless Respect does exceptionally well at the box office. Before Delta, I was optimistic that it would, but with movies becoming even more front-loaded and most sinking like a stone after the first weekend, I’m not sure that enough people are going to rush out and see this opening weekend. I guess Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar is also a possibility here. I don’t think actors are in a rush to give his first Oscar nomination for acting especially if he’s a lone nomination type of deal, but I guess he’s at least top 10 with how open it seems, imo. Regarding Hudson, I think Respect could be an actress contender, but I've been told from the box offce insiders that the movie is not tracking that strong, largely because older audiences are mostly just not going to the cinemas right now. Also early reviews are predictably not great. It's apparently another standard biopic. If Hudson manages to slip in, it'll probably be a distant fifth.
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Post by stephen on Aug 17, 2021 14:11:15 GMT
Pre-Venice and TIFF:
Adam Driver, The Last Duel Richard Jenkins, The Humans (I heard this was being pushed but also heard it wasn't, but I feel he's going to benefit from having this and Nightmare Alley) Jason Isaacs, Mass (I really think we need to be focusing more on this as a stealth acting contender for both supporting categories) Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (I know that people who have read the book swear by Kodi Smit-McPhee's role as being the better one, but Plemons has been surging towards that freshman nod for a while now and it's only a matter of time)
The fifth spot is where I'm having trouble. I could see it being Dafoe, or someone from Don't Look Up (Rylance?), or Hinds, or even Leto considering how close he got last year. Shit, I kinda wanna say Stellar Skateboard Stellan Skarsgard for the NGNG.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Aug 17, 2021 16:23:51 GMT
As usual, the hardest category to predict (although lead actress feels unusually open at this time of year).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Adam Driver, The Last Duel Jared Leto, House of Gucci Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog Benny Safdie, Soggy Bottom Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (Feel the least confident about him, especially if he gets overshadowed by McPhee and everyone else)
Alt. Al Pacino, House of Gucci Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley David Straithairn, Nightmare Alley Richard Jenkins, The Humans/Nightmare Alley Jamie Dornan, Belfast Ciaran Hinds, Belfast Rob Morgan, Don’t Look Up Jason Isaacs, Mass
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 14:35:21 GMT
Hm... Let's go with:
Reed Birney, Mass Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom Ciarán Hinds, Belfast Jared Leto, House of Gucci Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
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Post by stephen on Aug 26, 2021 14:51:06 GMT
Bradley Cooper, Soggy BottomI don't feel as confident in this performance as a lot of people (especially as I've heard some rumblings that it's Safdie who has the role to keep an eye on), but let's say that he gets double-nodded this year. Supporting Actor doesn't really have an early favorite this far out, so you'd have to imagine that if he doesn't have the muscle to take down someone like Cumberbatch or Washington or Smith, they'd give him Best Supporting Actor as a consolation (of course, some of us -- me included -- thought he was a cinch for Best Actor in 2018 for a similar reason, and we saw how that went). But if he doesn't get either, then we're talking about a man who has gone winless ten times.
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Post by DanQuixote on Aug 26, 2021 15:26:33 GMT
1. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley 2. Adam Driver, The Last Duel 3. Jared Leto, House of Gucci 4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 5. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog 6. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom 7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast 8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans 9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar 10. Jason Isaacs, Mass
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Post by DanQuixote on Aug 26, 2021 15:27:30 GMT
Bradley Cooper, Soggy BottomI don't feel as confident in this performance as a lot of people (especially as I've heard some rumblings that it's Safdie who has the role to keep an eye on), but let's say that he gets double-nodded this year. Supporting Actor doesn't really have an early favorite this far out, so you'd have to imagine that if he doesn't have the muscle to take down someone like Cumberbatch or Washington or Smith, they'd give him Best Supporting Actor as a consolation (of course, some of us -- me included -- thought he was a cinch for Best Actor in 2018 for a similar reason, and we saw how that went). But if he doesn't get either, then we're talking about a man who has gone winless ten times.Maybe he can win for the Bernstein biopic next year!
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 26, 2021 23:32:48 GMT
Cooper Driver Jenkins Rylance Smit-McPhee Affleck Dornan Garfield Leto Plemons Based off of what I've heard about their respective roles in their films, replaced Plemons with Smit-McPhee and Hinds with Dornan.
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Aug 28, 2021 14:31:31 GMT
Right now I'm thinking-
Jenkins, The Humans Isaacs, Mass Driver, The Last Duel Leto, House of Gucci Safdie, Soggy Bottom
One of the Power of the Dogs guys is likely to get in, but I don't know which. I'll wait for the reviews.
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Post by Mattsby on Aug 29, 2021 1:27:17 GMT
I took a sidelong peek, dato veloce un'occhiata, at the Gucci script and the Leto and Pacino roles could both be standouts....... putting in spoilers but I only mention who seems to own which half of the movie: Leto gets flashier scenes in the first half and middle, and maybe the single most touching moment of the whole thing, but Pacino gets consecutive great scenes down the stretch (seems similar to his own Hoffa but suavely dethroned)... while Leto is more cornered, so it may be Big Al's Oscar after all?? I mean I hope, dammit.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 29, 2021 21:36:33 GMT
I took a sidelong peek, dato veloce un'occhiata, at the Gucci script and the Leto and Pacino roles could both be standouts....... putting in spoilers but I only mention who seems to own which half of the movie: Leto gets flashier scenes in the first half and middle, and maybe the single most touching moment of the whole thing, but Pacino gets consecutive great scenes down the stretch (seems similar to his own Hoffa but suavely dethroned)... while Leto is more cornered, so it may be Big Al's Oscar after all?? I mean I hope, dammit. ..............Any Pacino-Irons scenes Matts? Personally I could see Leto getting in (sure, why not) or Pacino getting in (less likely I guess) .........or neither of them getting in (or Driver going Support?)...........but ..................and I say this in the nicest, most loving way possible..............Fnck Jared Leto...... Wearing a fat suit and a bald cap and saying "sheeeeeeeeeek-ah" and "firrrrre-clackkkkkkkker".......shouldn't have resulted in as many people picking him as there are right now anyway.......... That "down the stretch" thing you said is what's going to matter imo in Power of the Dog - where the Kodi Smit-McPhee character becomes more important late in the plot (in the book)......sometimes that can matter...........although sometimes it doesn't too like SLJ in Django (not a big fan of that one but a lot of people on MAR like that performance.........)
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Post by Mattsby on Aug 29, 2021 22:42:29 GMT
I took a sidelong peek, dato veloce un'occhiata, at the Gucci script and the Leto and Pacino roles could both be standouts....... putting in spoilers but I only mention who seems to own which half of the movie: Leto gets flashier scenes in the first half and middle, and maybe the single most touching moment of the whole thing, but Pacino gets consecutive great scenes down the stretch (seems similar to his own Hoffa but suavely dethroned)... while Leto is more cornered, so it may be Big Al's Oscar after all?? I mean I hope, dammit. .............. Any Pacino-Irons scenes Matts?Personally I could see Leto getting in (sure, why not) or Pacino getting in (less likely I guess) .........or neither of them getting in (or Driver going Support?)...........but ..................and I say this in the nicest, most loving way possible..............Fnck Jared Leto...... No scenes together. But it's not the final script I have, so hopefully Ridley had the right idea to request one! Irons role isn't so brief btw, couple scenes, some monologues.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 30, 2021 23:44:49 GMT
Surprised to see so many people here predicting Isaacs and/or Birney. Mass feels like a classic overhyped Sundance film, that ends up having no awards buzz whatsoever. It isn't even going to any of the fall festivals.
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Post by quetee on Sept 3, 2021 15:48:37 GMT
After watching the Belfast trailer, I'm hoping Cirian Hinds scores a nod.
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Post by franklin on Sept 3, 2021 18:27:25 GMT
I think they'll go with Dornan.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 3, 2021 23:16:50 GMT
If they go for one of them it'll be Dornan, but the reactions have been pretty underwhelming so far. Not sure what to do with the film to be honest.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 4, 2021 2:26:36 GMT
If they go for one of them it'll be Dornan, but the reactions have been pretty underwhelming so far. Not sure what to do with the film to be honest. Mhmmm, reactions today were more positive, still not sure where the film stands though. Will be an interesting case.
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Sept 12, 2021 14:32:46 GMT
Any chance for Penn in Licorice Pizza? He could have a meaty role.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2021 14:36:25 GMT
Any chance for Penn in Licorice Pizza? He could have a meaty role. I imagine both Cooper and Safide are more likely, but you never know.
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