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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jul 25, 2023 1:16:55 GMT
You're so far off base here, it's fucking hilarious. Go somewhere like AW and you'll realise, it's definitely not just Nolan fanboys predicting Nolan. I swear you just come out of the woodwork every year, to say dumb shit during awards season. I am not the one that is going around making proclamations in Jul in as far as who is going to win. OP is clearly a super fan of Oppenheimer - so why not just admit that they WANT Nolan to win. He didn't make some grandiose proclamation, he just said it felt like Nolan's moment. And really, what's the argument against it? Great reviews, great box office (for a project that is not marketable on its fact), working in a much more Academy-friendly genre (his nomination is for his other WWII movie), a very public face, has worked with seemingly half of Hollywood by this point, it all makes sense.
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filmnoir
Full Member
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Post by filmnoir on Jul 25, 2023 13:42:10 GMT
I am not the one that is going around making proclamations in Jul in as far as who is going to win. OP is clearly a super fan of Oppenheimer - so why not just admit that they WANT Nolan to win. He didn't make some grandiose proclamation, he just said it felt like Nolan's moment. And really, what's the argument against it? Great reviews, great box office (for a project that is not marketable on its fact), working in a much more Academy-friendly genre (his nomination is for his other WWII movie), a very public face, has worked with seemingly half of Hollywood by this point, it all makes sense. It doesn't all make sense. The argument against it - or anyone at this point - it's way too early to make those kind of predictions. Spielberg was anointed as the early front runner last year. The Fabelsman was his personal story, etc. There are LOTS other examples of that. If you are a fan of Nolan, why not just say that you WANT him to win.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jul 25, 2023 13:49:14 GMT
He didn't make some grandiose proclamation, he just said it felt like Nolan's moment. And really, what's the argument against it? Great reviews, great box office (for a project that is not marketable on its fact), working in a much more Academy-friendly genre (his nomination is for his other WWII movie), a very public face, has worked with seemingly half of Hollywood by this point, it all makes sense. It doesn't all make sense. The argument against it - or anyone at this point - it's way too early to make those kind of predictions. Spielberg was anointed as the early front runner last year. The Fabelsman was his personal story, etc. There are LOTS other examples of that. If you are a fan of Nolan, why not just say that you WANT him to win. Idk what forum you think you're on, but Oscar predictions is one of our main things around here.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jul 25, 2023 14:03:29 GMT
It doesn't all make sense. The argument against it - or anyone at this point - it's way too early to make those kind of predictions. Spielberg was anointed as the early front runner last year. The Fabelsman was his personal story, etc. There are LOTS other examples of that. If you are a fan of Nolan, why not just say that you WANT him to win. Idk what forum you think you're on, but Oscar predictions is one of our main things around here. If you are a Global Moderator for the forum, I am reaching out to you and ask that the following attack should not be allowed. mhynson27: You're so far off base here, it's fucking hilarious. Go somewhere like AW and you'll realise, it's definitely not just Nolan fanboys predicting Nolan. I swear you just come out of the woodwork every year, to say dumb shit during awards season.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 25, 2023 14:27:45 GMT
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Post by Joaquim on Jul 25, 2023 14:42:39 GMT
Idk what forum you think you're on, but Oscar predictions is one of our main things around here. If you are a Global Moderator for the forum, I am reaching out to you and ask that the following attack should not be allowed. mhynson27: You're so far off base here, it's fucking hilarious. Go somewhere like AW and you'll realise, it's definitely not just Nolan fanboys predicting Nolan. I swear you just come out of the woodwork every year, to say dumb shit during awards season.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 25, 2023 15:15:30 GMT
He didn't make some grandiose proclamation, he just said it felt like Nolan's moment. And really, what's the argument against it? Great reviews, great box office (for a project that is not marketable on its fact), working in a much more Academy-friendly genre (his nomination is for his other WWII movie), a very public face, has worked with seemingly half of Hollywood by this point, it all makes sense. It doesn't all make sense. The argument against it - or anyone at this point - it's way too early to make those kind of predictions. Spielberg was anointed as the early front runner last year. The Fabelsman was his personal story, etc. There are LOTS other examples of that. If you are a fan of Nolan, why not just say that you WANT him to win. Why are you in the Oscar part of this message board if you are going to get butt hurt when someone makes Oscar predictions? Get this shit out of my best Director thread if you don’t want people making predictions about Best Director, dude.
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Post by Pavan on Jul 25, 2023 16:59:34 GMT
I'm thinking double digit noms with a strong chance at winning director and a couple of above the line wins.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 25, 2023 17:30:03 GMT
I'm thinking double digit noms with a strong chance at winning director and a couple of above the line wins. Oppenheimer and Killers are strangely similar on paper. *Long historical epics *By directors arguably both overdue for Oscars (Nolan for his first, Marty for his second) *About the atrocities of white men *Contending with each other in actor, supporting actor, supporting actress. Both looking very possible for two of those) *Competing for adapted screenplay *Both getting double digit nods *They even both have the same metacritic score currently with 89 On paper there is very little that can make a strong argument for one being much better off in either in Director or Picture (I personally don't think there will be a split this year if either of these films win best picture. One could win Best Director and something else wins but I don't think either wins picture without director) Right now I think I'm preferring Killers just SLIGHTLY but I'm just splitting hairs here. My two reasons are I think the indigenous narrative is going to go ever well. Especially with Killers having the support of the Osage. My other reason is I think Gladstone is a stronger win contender than anything Oppenheimer has. These are really splitting hairs here.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jul 25, 2023 18:00:49 GMT
I'm thinking double digit noms with a strong chance at winning director and a couple of above the line wins. Oppenheimer and Killers are strangely similar on paper. *Long historical epics *By directors arguably both overdue for Oscars (Nolan for his first, Marty for his second) *About the atrocities of white men *Contending with each other in actor, supporting actor, supporting actress. Both looking very possible for two of those) *Competing for adapted screenplay *Both getting double digit nods *They even both have the same metacritic score currently with 89 On paper there is very little that can make a strong argument for one being much better off in either in Director or Picture (I personally don't think there will be a split this year if either of these films win best picture. One could win Best Director and something else wins but I don't think either wins picture without director) Right now I think I'm preferring Killers just SLIGHTLY but I'm just splitting hairs here. My two reasons are I think the indigenous narrative is going to go ever well. Especially with Killers having the support of the Osage. My other reason is I think Gladstone is a stronger win contender than anything Oppenheimer has. These are really splitting hairs here. Yeah, on paper it's really close right now. Killers having the Osage behind it lends it some strong credibility, especially if some of the criticisms of Oppenheimer's women or the lack of perspective for the victims of the atomic bomb (issues I don't agree with but some do hold and could become a bigger narrative in awards season) gain steam. Killers being almost a full half-hour longer could hurt it, though, especially if its box office ends up not being even close to Oppenheimer as I expect will likely be the case. I could see a scenario where one gets Adapted Screenplay while the other gets Director/Picture so both filmmakers get their overdue win.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 25, 2023 18:18:56 GMT
I may have said this in this thread - I said it somewhere - and I only have like 3 things to say that I repeat with slight tweaks - KOTFM has an ending that is pretty out there and wonky.....it was spoiled in many of the reviews and my friend who has seen it (RT critic, not particularly famous or obscure) says the movie doesn't build to its end to include that........it just continues and eventually stops....... I really don't think those reviews suggest Killers is "unstoppable" if actually read deeper - or is winning BP/BD over Nolan or BSA over Downey - I don't think they're that close in the BP/BD race as we think.......and as good as De Niro apparently is - it's one note evil it seems and Downey is show-offy like Salieri actually......I'm sure I'll love KOTFM and probably love it more..........but the last scene of Oppy is memorably specific and "right" (though not quite to me)......if someone is stealing this from Nolan it's going to be more in contrast than something that seems as similar I reckon........
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 25, 2023 19:11:46 GMT
I may have said this in this thread - I said it somewhere - and I only have like 3 things to say that I repeat with slight tweaks - KOTFM has an ending that is pretty out there and wonky.....it was spoiled in many of the reviews and my friend who has seen it (RT critic, not particularly famous or obscure) says the movie doesn't build to its end to include that........it just continues and eventually stops....... I really don't think those reviews suggest Killers is "unstoppable" if actually read deeper - or is winning BP/BD over Nolan or BSA over Downey - I don't think they're that close in the BP/BD race as we think.......and as good as De Niro apparently is - it's one note evil it seems and Downey is show-offy like Salieri actually......I'm sure I'll love KOTFM and probably love it more..........but the last scene of Oppy is memorably specific and "right" (though not quite to me)......if someone is stealing this from Nolan it's going to be more in contrast than something that seems as similar I reckon........ Why is unstoppable in quotes? Who said that?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 25, 2023 19:19:49 GMT
I may have said this in this thread - I said it somewhere - and I only have like 3 things to say that I repeat with slight tweaks - KOTFM has an ending that is pretty out there and wonky.....it was spoiled in many of the reviews and my friend who has seen it (RT critic, not particularly famous or obscure) says the movie doesn't build to its end to include that........it just continues and eventually stops....... I really don't think those reviews suggest Killers is "unstoppable" if actually read deeper - or is winning BP/BD over Nolan or BSA over Downey - I don't think they're that close in the BP/BD race as we think.......and as good as De Niro apparently is - it's one note evil it seems and Downey is show-offy like Salieri actually......I'm sure I'll love KOTFM and probably love it more..........but the last scene of Oppy is memorably specific and "right" (though not quite to me)......if someone is stealing this from Nolan it's going to be more in contrast than something that seems as similar I reckon........ Why is unstoppable in quotes? Who said that? Well I've seen it said on this board and irl that this is (or was) the frontrunner for BP/BD, no? Maybe not for you but I would have put it in quotes if I saw the same reviews for Color Purple too another frontrunner........quotes were added by me to suggest paraphrasing only I don't think what I typed suggested that ^ (emphasis, mine.........again) is the most interesting thing I said there though ...........
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 29, 2023 23:01:11 GMT
IMAX seams to believe that Dune 2 is going to come out this year.
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havok2
Junior Member
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Post by havok2 on Jul 30, 2023 20:01:18 GMT
This board is underestimating Mann
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Aug 13, 2023 21:48:37 GMT
Let’s say Villeneuve and Bazawule do get pushed back to next year what would be y’alls updated predictions? I think if this is true I will go with… Marty Nolan Song Glazer Payne Nobody is really talking about Payne being Me Too’d and he has three previous nominations so I’m going with him for now. Could see Triet, Fennell or Lanthimos maybe. Last spot is tough. I’m starting to think I want to predict Payne either way. The directors branch already loves him and I think they are going to dig the retro thing he is doing. I’m unsure who to take off though of my original 5. Marty and Nolan are as safe as it is possible to be. Maybe Past Lives will get the Call Me By Your Name/ Marriage Story treatment? I’ve seen people say this could be Denis’ RoTK moment but maybe it will be more of his Two Towers/ Way of Water since it pretty obvious there will be at least one more movie. Glazer seems right up the directors branch’s alley but maybe it just won’t catch on with the industry. Im actually going to take out Song for now. I think Dune Part 2 will feel just enough like a conclusion that they won’t Two Towers it but the knowledge of another film coming will keep him out of the win convo and keep him on the bubble.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Aug 13, 2023 22:19:41 GMT
I think Dune Part 2 will feel just enough like a conclusion that they won’t Two Towers it but the knowledge of another film coming will keep him out of the win convo and keep him on the bubble. This is assuming the strike ends in a timely matter, and Warners doesn’t push it. I think that’s going to throw off not only the release schedule, but the Oscar contenders in general.
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Post by Pavan on Aug 14, 2023 4:23:39 GMT
Nolan Scorsese Song Glazer Gerwig
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Post by Pavan on Aug 14, 2023 4:29:09 GMT
Gut prediction:
Dune2 will get a few tech noms and zero wins. This year has a highly successful Nolan film and a well acclaimed $200m Scorsese film and a billion-dollar Barbie. Don't think Dune2 is winning anything.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 14, 2023 5:50:32 GMT
Nolan Scorsese Glazer Payne Song Swap Song for Gerwig.
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Post by JangoB on Aug 14, 2023 8:22:21 GMT
Gut prediction: Dune2 will get a few tech noms and zero wins. This year has a highly successful Nolan film and a well acclaimed $200m Scorsese film and a billion-dollar Barbie. Don't think Dune2 is winning anything. What, not even VFX? I can definitely see a scenario in which it doesn't win any other techs but VFX seems like a given to me.
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Post by stephen on Aug 14, 2023 12:23:18 GMT
Assuming Villeneuve is still in:
Nolan, Scorsese, Villeneuve, Gerwig, Glazer. I also think Lanthimos and Fennell could do some real damage as well.
I think Song's chances are rapidly winnowing by the day.
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Post by Pavan on Aug 16, 2023 10:25:49 GMT
Gut prediction: Dune2 will get a few tech noms and zero wins. This year has a highly successful Nolan film and a well acclaimed $200m Scorsese film and a billion-dollar Barbie. Don't think Dune2 is winning anything. What, not even VFX? I can definitely see a scenario in which it doesn't win any other techs but VFX seems like a given to me. Oh yeah i totally forgot about VFX.
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Post by DanQuixote on Aug 16, 2023 11:31:07 GMT
I think Song is in trouble here too.
Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese seem like pretty safe bets. I think Greta Gerwig will be hard to ignore considering she has auteur cred and a monster hit movie. I think Jonathan Glazer will be the critics’ favourite.
The fifth slot is pretty tricky in my opinion. Villeneuve makes a lot of sense, but I still can’t get over the Part I snub. Song’s film seems to be fading at the moment and will need the critics to really show up for it. Bazawule could be a factor, but I still think The Color Purple will get pushed to next year at this rate. Payne makes a lot of sense too, but he has fallen out of favour recently and has some allegations against him that will undoubtedly resurface.
Gun to my head, I think the fifth slot will go to Justine Triet. Neon has already proven what it can do with a Palme winner.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 16, 2023 12:39:47 GMT
To me this is the same logic as Best Actor and whether they have room for room for 2 villains - DiCap / (assumed villain) Keoghan etc....in this category .......it's evil white man fatigue syndrome - 3 of the 5 "locks" Scorsese / Nolan / Glazer - are historically weighty / similar in some way - that bodes extremely well for Gerwig who is fooling people into thinking Production Design IS directing .....but also for Fennell who already has a nod, and has a much bigger movie to apply her visual stylings on.......and visual stylings are sort of her thing...... Would love to see Song in this group since her directing was subtle, intelligent and part of its brilliance is like her screenplay - this less is more approach but alas - that's why screenplay is a far better spot than directing where she is, on paper on the outside looking in.......she may be like 8th actually
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